2019 Cap Space

[HardRightEdge]

You can't drop Perry. And you can't drop graham.

The $3.3 mil in cap savings for dropping Perry doesn't buy much even for a 50% snap count rotational 3-4 OLB which is pretty much what Perry was this year, hobbled again by injuries.

But isn't there a point where you have to ask if the guy can ever stay healthy? And that's not going to get any easier for him in his 8th. season.

I wouldn't rule out the Packers cutting losses here. But if dropping Perry is in conjuction with Matthews walking, there's a lot of work to do at this position. I'd make it a 50/50 proposition.

I have mixed feelings about Graham. On the plus side he still draws a lot of attention and I don't see where he's lost that much speed. On the negative side, the guy can't block to save his life and after watching him play for nearly a year I don't believe he's a very smart player or a particularly good route runner. He wins on athleticism. Most of it is still there but not all of it, and I don't see much compensation for that loss through experience. Is there $5.3 mil in cap savings still in the tank? I think that's a 50/50 proposition as well.

Any one of the possible cuts listed in the OP are plausible, though I think Daniels might have some trade value. But you can't get rid of all of them or even most of them on top of Cobb and Matthews. Even in a "build for 2020" scenario, creating this many holes can send the whole shebang down the slippery slope.

I don't think you can enter free agency and the draft with the roster of players under contract looking like this:

QB: Rodgers, Kizer, Boyle
WR: D. Adams, Moore, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown
TE: Graham
RB: J. Williams, A. Jones, Carson
FB: Vitale
OL: Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Linsley, Taylor, Spriggs, Murphy, Madison, Light

DL: Daniels, Clark, M. Adams, Lowry, Looney, Lancaster
Edge: Perry, Fackrell
ILB: Burks, Martinez, Morrison, Crawford
CB: Alexander, King, Jackson, Greene, Redmond, T. Brown
S: T. Williams, J. Jones, Jamerson

ST: Crosby, Davis, Scott, Bradley

Of course this list can be supplemented with restricted (RFA) and exclusive rights (ERFA) free agents from the following list who won't cost much, but any impact in that list is purely speculative.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/green-bay-packers/

 

[HardRightEdge]

yeah, Spriggs has been ok, that's about it. He's not as bad as some would like you to believe...

When Spriggs has to line up against guys like Hunter and Griffen I think he's just as bad an OT as some would make you believe. Winter is coming, and by that I mean Mack & Co. I hope Bulaga was sitting out this past week to get ready for this coming Sunday. Otherwise this could get ugly in a hurry.

Spriggs isn't some rookie going through growing pains. This is a guy at the end of his third year. Of course he wouldn't be the first bad OT who became a decent OG. The "decent OG" part is a speculation, of course, but it would seem to be the logical path forward.

 

[RepStar15]

I can’t figure out why Mike Daniels is even in the “cut” conversion. Can someone clue me in on why this move would make any sense? Does saving 8 million dollars for one of the better 3-4 defensive ends in the league hold much value? He would easily be in the top 5 best DE amongst the 2019 free agents (that could easily be resigned by their respective organizations before March)...In no particular order:
1. Ezekiel Ansah- Prefer Mike Daniels
2. DeMarcus Lawrence- Would prefer Demarcus Larence, but unlikely the Cowboys let him go and even more unlikely he gets a team friendly contract. This dude will be getting somewhere along the lines of 19 million/year or more.
3. Suh- Hell no
4. Cameron Wake- So old. Would it make sense to move on from a guy that has 4 years left for a guy that may not have another year left in the tank?
5. Sheldon Richardson- Maybe an upgrade? Probably not.
6. Brandon Graham- Too small to play the role he would need too in GB.
7. Dante Fowler Jr- More of an OLB on this team.
8. Kyle Williams- Is he still alive?
9. Haloti Ngata- Same as above

 

[Riley82]

Keep Pettine for starters
I would resign Breeland and Campbell
our CBs would be
King,Breeland,Alexander,Jackson,BrownWilliams
I would also try to resign CM3 to a cheap deal.
Draft a pass Rusher, Safety Oline ilb, bring back Wilkerson on a 1 year deal again.
I would try a vet safety.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I can’t figure out why Mike Daniels is even in the “cut” conversion. Can someone clue me in on why this move would make any sense? Does saving 8 million dollars for one of the better 3-4 defensive ends in the league hold much value? He would easily be in the top 5 best DE amongst the 2019 free agents (that could easily be resigned by their respective organizations before March)...In no particular order:
1. Ezekiel Ansah- Prefer Mike Daniels
2. DeMarcus Lawrence- Would prefer Demarcus Larence, but unlikely the Cowboys let him go and even more unlikely he gets a team friendly contract. This dude will be getting somewhere along the lines of 19 million/year or more.
3. Suh- Hell no
4. Cameron Wake- So old. Would it make sense to move on from a guy that has 4 years left for a guy that may not have another year left in the tank?
5. Sheldon Richardson- Maybe an upgrade? Probably not.
6. Brandon Graham- Too small to play the role he would need too in GB.
7. Dante Fowler Jr- More of an OLB on this team.
8. Kyle Williams- Is he still alive?
9. Haloti Ngata- Same as above

You've mixed a few 260 - 275 lb. 4-3 DE/edge players in with 300+ lb. 3-4 DLs. Lawrence and Ansah for example. Apples and oranges.

Why has Daniels entered the discussion? From around the middle of last season through this one he hasn't been quite the player he was previously. Decent, not great, not much impact. And pretty expensive.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I just cannot get on board with cutting Bulaga at this point. I know he's aging and injury prone, but I would shudder to think about the state of our offensive line going into next year without him able to play at least a fraction of the games.

At this point, I'd keep Bulaga for 2019.

The Packers could either sign a free agent to replace Bulaga or draft a tackle to take over for him. In my opinion it's time to move on and save $6.75 million in cap space.

I can’t figure out why Mike Daniels is even in the “cut” conversion. Can someone clue me in on why this move would make any sense? Does saving 8 million dollars for one of the better 3-4 defensive ends in the league hold much value?

Daniels hasn't performed like one of the best defensive lineman in the league this season though.

 

[PackAttack12]

The Packers could either sign a free agent to replace Bulaga or draft a tackle to take over for him. In my opinion it's time to move on and save $6.75 million in cap space.

I'd be okay with a proven free agent tackle, but have no desire to depend on a rookie to fill that role in 2019.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'd be okay with a proven free agent tackle, but have no desire to depend on a rookie to fill that role in 2019.

I wouldn't mind the Packers starting an early round pick at right tackle next season. They need to add quality depth as well though.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Clay has been better the past two weeks but I would still be leery of bringing him back. A couple of his pressures Sunday were from no one blocked and a lot of the time the lt received no help and still handled Clay. I was at the game and watched Clay quite a few times on pass plays and he kept trying the same speed rush and the lt just let him go wide and behind the qb.

I think some team will give clay a milt year deal and I want none of that

 

[gbgary]

all Packers cuts have to be made by march 13th for the savings to be at their max.

daniels, crosby, aaaaaand probably graham are staying imo. maybe even bulaga as bad as that side of the line is. for sure crosby and daniels.

i've changed my mind. i think daniels is the only sure thing. spriggs? he's too cheap to cut out-right. he may not make it through camp next season, but i think he'll be there competing. others may be cut and brought back at a cheaper rate...bulaga, crosby, are good candidates but they'll be fighting for their jobs. maybe tramon if the safety experiment is successful (but i doubt it).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

all Packers cuts have to be made by march 13th for the savings to be at their max.

That's true for Graham, Perry and Williams. Daniels, Bulaga and Crosby aren't set to receive roster bonuses at that point though.

 

[Jerellh528]

Interesting graphic posted by Mike Sando at espn. We cut Jordy for underperforming his salary, and he’s a packer legend. It’s possible Graham is cut too imo, but I’d bring him back for another season while a draft pick and tonyan develop behind him.

Graham vs Jordy this season

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[HardRightEdge]

Interesting graphic posted by Mike Sando at espn. We cut Jordy for underperforming his salary, and he’s a packer legend. It’s possible Graham is cut too imo, but I’d bring him back for another season while a draft pick and tonyan develop behind him.

Graham vs Jordy this season

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I'm not sure of the point of the comparison other than to say both signings yielded poor value. Would keeping Nelson in liue of Graham while saving $3 million have made any difference in this season? No, it would not.

The more relevant Nelson comparison is MVS: 59 targets/ 29 catchs / 451 yards / 15.6 / 2 TDs / 17 first downs / $534,000.

Those are pretty decent numbers for a rookie, he added a deep threat dimension Nelson no longer provides, while getting a lot of valuable on-the-job experience he would not have gotten were Nelson still around.

Conclusion:

Parting ways with Nelson: good move
Signing Graham: not so much

 

[Jerellh528]

I'm not sure of the point of the comparison other than to say both signings yielded poor value. Would keeping Nelson in liue of Graham while saving $3 million have made any difference in this season? No, it would not.

The more relevant Nelson comparison is MVS: 59 targets/ 29 catchs / 451 yards / 15.6 / 2 TDs / 17 first downs / $534,000.

Those are pretty decent numbers for a rookie, he added a deep threat dimension Nelson no longer provides, while getting a lot of valuable on-the-job experience he would not have gotten were Nelson still around.

Conclusion:

Parting ways with Nelson: good move
Signing Graham: not so much

The point was Graham can be on the chopping block, I literally wrote that in my post lol.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The point was Graham can be on the chopping block, I literally wrote that in my post lol.

I didn't question that point. I questioned the comparison to Nelson which is irrelevant to that conclusion.

 

[GleefulGary]

Don't think you move on from Spriggs yet. He's a capable swing tackle.

This Bears game will tell us a lot. He's just been slow adding strength. He might get there yet...he's certainly improved over last year.

 

[Mondio]

At the very least he's a capable back up and he's not costing anything really. We could certainly do a lot worse at the back up position and spend more money doing it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Don't think you move on from Spriggs yet. He's a capable swing tackle.I don

This Bears game will tell us a lot. He's just been slow adding strength. He might get there yet...he's certainly improved over last year.

I don't see his play strength as an issue at this point. He looks like he's put on a lot of good weight.

There are issues highlighted in Zierlein's pre-draft scouting report that remain:

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/profiles/jason-spriggs?id=2555197

"Has crippling issue with over-setting in pass protection. Doesn't maintain much weight on inner half of his frame and has consistent issues redirecting his weight back inside with suddenness against inside moves."

Then when he does set inside, "Slows his slide when punching, allowing rushers opportunity to gain advantage around the corner."

I roll these issues up into questionable balance and foot quickness. If he's playing against guys who just burst the edge and have no counter move, he can set weight outside and handle the guy. Better pass rushers who have a counter move still get him betwixt and between. After 3 years, we have to conclude he is who he is going to be.

These are OT issues. He might be a decent guard if he's ever tried there. Regardless, releasing him gets only $1.1 mil in cap savings next year. Even if the Packers hold on to Bulaga and bring in a guy who beats him out for the #3 spot, that's not a lot of dough for a #4 OT behind an always questionable Bulaga.

There is no reason to believe Spriggs is a long term answer at OT.

 

[Mondio]

That's pretty much what i've seen from him too. At first I thought it was because of strength. He had to overcommit to the outside set up to maintain leverage and position to make up for lack of strength. Anybody that could set him up outside and then come back in seemed to get a free rush at the QB at that point. But like you said, this year he seems to be bigger and stronger.

I wonder at guard though too as the space is more limited, but with twists and stunts, they often have to leave the guy their helping with and go get a guy coming right up the middle that delayed, or on a twist. That could be just as bad.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I wonder at guard though too as the space is more limited, but with twists and stunts, they often have to leave the guy their helping with and go get a guy coming right up the middle that delayed, or on a twist. That could be just as bad.

Maybe, but still the required range is more limited and making those adjustments are as much mental as physical. I don't have a sense of how quickly he would recognize and process in that role. You wouldn't know until you try him there. It's a pretty common occurrance in the league, not just in Green Bay with guys like Sitton and Lang, to take good college tackles and move them to guard precisely because of these kinds of issues in the step up in competition..

 

[mradtke66]

I may be mis-remembering, but didn't he play at RG a little bit his rookie year? Undersized (college kid, end of the year, so he was down to 285-ish?) and he did surprisingly okay there?

He's probably forever a tweener, not big/strong enough to a guard, not nimble enough to be a tackle, but an excellent 6/7th guy off the bench.

 

[Jerellh528]

I didn't question that point. I questioned the comparison to Nelson which is irrelevant to that conclusion.

The relevant part is that we cut Nelson because he was underperforming and now we have graham putting up Jordy type numbers when we were expecting much more from him. So if we cut Nelson for underperforming on his contract, we surely shouldn’t have any qualms about cutting Graham’s contract since they basically have been equally impactful.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Don't think you move on from Spriggs yet. He's a capable swing tackle.

This Bears game will tell us a lot. He's just been slow adding strength. He might get there yet...he's certainly improved over last year.

There's no reason to move on from Spriggs next season as the Packers wouldn't gain a significant amount of cap space but I wouldn't feel comfortable with him being counted on as a starter.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I may be mis-remembering, but didn't he play at RG a little bit his rookie year? Undersized (college kid, end of the year, so he was down to 285-ish?) and he did surprisingly okay there?

He's probably forever a tweener, not big/strong enough to a guard, not nimble enough to be a tackle, but an excellent 6/7th guy off the bench.

Spriggs did play some guard in his rookie year.

He's not the undersized player now that he was then. As noted in this article from June of this year, Spriggs estimated his weight at 320 lbs., up form 301 lbs. in 2017:

https://www.packers.com/news/jason-spriggs-settling-in-with-increased-size-strength

I had some doubts he could maintain that weight through the season, but it looks like he has. He just looks bigger than in past seasons.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The relevant part is that we cut Nelson because he was underperforming and now we have graham putting up Jordy type numbers when we were expecting much more from him. So if we cut Nelson for underperforming on his contract, we surely shouldn’t have any qualms about cutting Graham’s contract since they basically have been equally impactful.

My point is that you do not have to compare Graham's performance and pay to Nelson's in order to question Graham's value proposition. The presention, with the average pay noted, suggests an either/or proposition as in, "look, we could have gotten more production with Nelson for less money."

My point is that's a flawed way to look at it. Neither is a good value proposition, they play different positions, and retaining Nelson would have delayed MVS's development while MVS has been similarly productive if in different ways.

At this juncture, the only relevant question is this:

Will Jimmy Graham be a $5.3 million TE in 2019? That's the cap savings if he is cut. That is certainly debateable.

And if you want to compare these players' pay, average pay is not the way to look at it. If Graham is cut, his cap cost for this one season of play will have been $13.2 mil, $5.9 mil this year and $7.3 mil in dead cap next year. Nelson has no dead cap because he did not get a signing bonus or guarantees for 2019. If released, his cap cost for this one season of play will be limited to this year's $7.4mil.