2019 Cap Space

[Dantés]

This has come up a few other places, so I thought I would make a thread rather than derail an existing one.

Apparently (I haven't heard it) the narrative has been floating around that the Packers have no cap space because of the Rodgers deal. While it is true that Rodgers' contract squeezes the cap significantly, it's absolutely not true that they don't have any space moving forward. Here are the figures from overthecap:

2019 Space: 46M (figured on a rising cap ceiling to 190M), 14th in the league and 1st in the AFCN (Lions 16th with 41M, Bears 26th with 20M, and Vikings 30th with 11M).

Possible Cuts: Here are the basics of what would happen if the Packers cut the following players:

• Nick Perry: Cutting Perry would "save" 14.7M in space, but would incur 11.1M in dead cap because of guarantees left in the contract, for an actual saving of 3.6M. Cutting him post June 1 would allow them to spread out the dead money hit between this year and next year, meaning they would pick up more like 9M in 2019 (but lose about 5.5 in 2020).
• Jimmy Graham: Cutting Graham would eliminate 12.7M in cap space, but incur 7.3M in dead money, for an actual total savings of 5.4M.
• Mike Daniels: Cap hit: 10.9M; Dead money: 2.4M; Actual savings: 8.5M
• Bryan Bulaga: Cap hit: 8.6M; Dead money: 1.6M; Actual savings: 7M
• Tramon Williams: Cap hit: 6.4M; Dead money: 1.6M: Actual savings: 4.8M
• Mason Crosby: Cap hit: 4.9M; Dead money: 1.3M; Actual savings: 3.6M
• Jason Spriggs: Cap hit: 1.6M; Dead money: .5M; Actual savings: 1.1M

Future Contracts: Here are the guys that the Packers are either certainly or possible going to want to extend in the next couple of seasons.

• Kenny Clark: 2020 (or 2021 if they choose to use the 5th year option)
• Kevin King: 2021
• Blake Martinez: 2020
• Aaron Jones: 2021

This is a very basic description of possibilities, but I think that's all that some people are looking for.

 

[gbgary]

daniels, crosby, aaaaaand probably graham are staying imo. maybe even bulaga as bad as that side of the line is. for sure crosby and daniels.

 

[Dantés]

Here's my two cents on what they should/can do:

While it accrues a ton of dead money, I think you have to cut Perry. I also wouldn't do it post June 1st, because Rodgers' cap number climbs to its peak in 2020 and 2021. Better to just deal with it now. That comes with the caveat that they may know something we don't know about Perry that would change things. But if the 2018 version is who he is now, I don't see how you keep him.

I would also say you have to cut Crosby. You can draft a kicker in the 5th round and pay about 15% of the cap you save by cutting him. They are currently overpaying dramatically for a 75% kicker.

And I would cut Spriggs.

That would give the Packers about 55M in space to work with.

I would not cut Graham. He was not enough of a disappointment to incur that kind of dead money. I would keep Daniels on for his final year. Unless they feel that Bulaga can't play anyone, I'd keep him one more season and let him be a bridge to a rookie that they draft in 2019. Unless they feel that Tramon has dropped off a cliff, I'd keep him for his second season to be a veteran mentor in the cornerback room, given that the rest of their key players at the position will be in the 2nd or 3rd seasons.

In free agency, I'd focus on safety, edge, blocking tight end, and maybe a YAC/slot receiver. Offensive line needs help, but this FA class sucks. Defensive line also needs to be reinforced, but a rookie makes more sense to me than a veteran given that I have them keeping Daniels and needing to pay Clark soon.

They currently don't have anyone at safety who's a sure thing. The position is screaming for a veteran addition. Adrian Amos is my player of choice.

At edge, they need more than one player. So signing a veteran would still leave them in position to draft one, even as high as their first pick.

Tight end is another position where they need to sign someone and draft someone. Lewis and Kendricks are gone, and they also need to start remaking the position behind Graham in preparation for his departure.

They could draft a WR who wins in the short game, but that's risky in that they need the help right away. Plus they're super young at the position as it is, so it makes sense to sign a veteran.

The Packers are in no position to go crazy on the free agent market. But neither are they strapped and helpless.

 

[Dantés]

daniels, crosby, aaaaaand probably graham are staying imo. maybe even bulaga as bad as that side of the line is. for sure crosby and daniels.

Why would Crosby be safe?

 

[Mondio]

I don’t have much doubt they make a good effort to replace Crosby this offseason

 

[PackerFanLV]

crosby, perry, tramon bye bye.

 

[Dieseljunkie12]

Graham and Daniels stay for sure. In essence are you signing a decent te for 5 million a year? Maybe some guy like ebron who is hit or miss. Yes I know he is not a free agent just an example of the kind of player for 5 million. Also if it is indeed Josh McDaniels coming aboard you dont think he wants Graham for a few years? And daniels is a monster end of story. Those are my definites of staying.

Do we have an actual 2019 free agent lost though? Clay and Cobb etc? Not just poten6cap casualties

 

[Dantés]

Graham and Daniels stay for sure. In essence are you signing a decent te for 5 million a year? Maybe some guy like ebron who is hit or miss. Yes I know he is not a free agent just an example of the kind of player for 5 million. Also if it is indeed Josh McDaniels coming aboard you dont think he wants Graham for a few years? And daniels is a monster end of story. Those are my definites of staying.

Do we have an actual 2019 free agent lost though? Clay and Cobb etc? Not just poten6cap casualties

I prefer Spotrac.

 

[Jerellh528]

I think Perry, Crosby, Bulaga, & Tramon should be cut.

Something kinda like this would be nice

Bring back Matthews for cheap(hopefully). And also Breeland, & Campbell.

Sign Anthony Barr, & Landon Collins
(Likely also a vet defensive end,& Olineman)
Draft
R1: pass rusher/edge
R1:WR
R2: Safety
R3: Tight end
R4: Oline
R4: Pass rusher/edge
R5: Oline
R6: Kicker
R7: Dline

 

[wist43]

Cobb, Perry, Crosby are all gone I think, maybe Matthews too. Ryan and Spriggs are gone.

LB/Edge is our biggest need... the cupboard is bare at LB.

I don't like Fackrell as a starter, and would like to see Martinez replaced as well at some point.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't like Fackrell as a starter, and would like to see Martinez replaced as well at some point.

You said that the LB and Edge cupboard is bare (I agree) but you want to see Martinez gone?
(I Strongly disagree)
That surprises me on 2 fronts. Martinez has been the most consistent LB we’ve had for 2 years running. Secondly, that would leave the cupboard hollow in an area we are already needing to reinforce.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think Perry, Crosby, Bulaga, & Tramon should be cut.

Something kinda like this would be nice

Bring back Matthews for cheap(hopefully). And also Breeland, & Campbell.

Sign Anthony Barr, & Landon Collins
(Likely also a vet defensive end,& Olineman)
Draft
R1: pass rusher/edge
R1:WR
R2: Safety
R3: Tight end
R4: Oline
R4: Pass rusher/edge
R5: Oline
R6: Kicker
R7: Dline

Sign the player that ruined our 2017 season and then jawed with our QB and team leader afterwards while knowingly putting him in the hospital? Well you’re a forgiving soul anyway!

I agree with you on Williams and maybe on Crosby though if the opportunity presents. Give me the extra 10M I’ll take my chances with both of them and roughly ~56M in cap space.

It takes time to develop a stellar OT. I’d normally 100 % agree on Bulaga, but he could be a stop gap while we bring in his replacement under his tutelage so that’s risky when we’ve nearly completely neglected protecting #12 recently. I’d absolutely cut Bulaga after the 2019 season. Bulaga is hurt a lot but he’s one of the better In the league at his position. I’d add to that position in the draft and have another guy beside Spriggs who can play OT..there’s almost always a lineman going down.

I’d lock at minimum 2 of these 3 in FA (WR, Edge, Safety) or maybe all 3 if available.
Then I’d start
1. OT
1. Edge (Yes again)
2. HB (Delvin Cook type to compliment AJ)
3. TE
4. ILB
4. OG
5. K

 

[elcid]

Sign the player that ruined our 2017 season and then jawed with our QB and team leader afterwards while knowingly putting him in the hospital? Well you’re a forgiving soul anyway!

I agree with you on Williams and maybe on Crosby though if the opportunity presents. Give me the extra 10M I’ll take my chances with both of them and roughly ~56M in cap space.

It takes time to develop a stellar OT. I’d normally 100 % agree on Bulaga, but he could be a stop gap while we bring in his replacement under his tutelage so that’s risky when we’ve nearly completely neglected protecting #12 recently. I’d absolutely cut Bulaga after the 2019 season. Bulaga is hurt a lot but he’s one of the better In the league at his position. I’d add to that position in the draft and have another guy beside Spriggs who can play OT..there’s almost always a lineman going down.

I’d lock at minimum 2 of these 3 in FA (WR, Edge, Safety) or maybe all 3 if available.
Then I’d start
1. OT
1. Edge (Yes again)
2. HB (Delvin Cook type to compliment AJ)
3. TE
4. ILB
4. OG
5. K

I agree that drafting a RB high is desirable. I dont think the FO would want to address EDGE through FA, due to the lack of game changing names getting to the market, but most importantly due to the inflated contracts edge rushers get. I am confident though that they will sign a quality S, and furthermore indeed add either a WR or RB through FA. If we then were to bring back Allison, Breeland and Wilkerson, while cutting Bulaga (guy just cant be trusted on to play and % wise we do not incur a lot of dead cap money) and Crosby, my draft would look as follows:

1a EDGE
1b RT/WR
2 WR/RT
3 RB
4a EDGE
4b RG
5 S
6a K
6b TE
7 ILB

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree that drafting a RB high is desirable.

The Packers have more pressing needs than at running back, therefore I wouldn't be in favor of drafting one early.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Apparently (I haven't heard it) the narrative has been floating around that the Packers have no cap space because of the Rodgers deal. While it is true that Rodgers' contract squeezes the cap significantly, it's absolutely not true that they don't have any space moving forward. Here are the figures from overthecap:

2019 Space: 46M (figured on a rising cap ceiling to 190M), 14th in the league and 1st in the AFCN (Lions 16th with 41M, Bears 26th with 20M, and Vikings 30th with 11M).

I prefer Spotrac.

Of course it would be foolish to say the Packers have no cap space for next season. It would also be incorrect to think the Packers have $46 mil to spend in free agency. It's also not particularly meaningful to compare the team rankings in available cap space without evaluating who on the respective teams are in contract years.

Anyway, for 2019:

$190 mil cap number -$154 mil in current 2019 committments (overthecap.com for 45 players) + $8 mil cap carryover (https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report) = $44 mil.

Whether it's $46 mil or $44 mil likely boils down to the fact that overthecap shows 45 players currently under contract for 2019 whereas spotrac shows only 41 players. Without hunting down all the discrepancies, overthecap shows Looney and Vitale signed through 2019 whereas spotract does not include them. There might be another couple of minimum salary recent signings to the roster with similar discrepancies.

Anyway, for the umpteenth time, there are necessary post free agent period spending/subtractions that must be made before considering availabe cap for free agency spending. As noted recently elsewhere:

• Subtract about $6.4 mil held in reserve for the first 4 draft picks.
• Assuming the $44 mil in cap space and 45 guys under contract for 2019, subtract $2 mil for minimum salary rookies, either lower round draftees or UDFAs.
• Subract about $1.4 mil for the practice squad.
• Subtract an amount to held in reserve for PUP/IR replacements, say $3 mil.

As a starting point, it's best to view available cap space for free agency at a maximum of $31 mil with those subtractions based on overthecap's 45 players under contract for next year. For each one signed, you can add back about $500,000 to the kitty since that player will be replacing a minimum salary rookie spot.

Cutting any of the 2019 vet players you list adds more to the kitty, as you illustrated, while of course adding more holes to fill regardless of how one views the value proposition.

 

[HardRightEdge]

So, who are these 45 players (per overthecap.com) under contract for 2019 at $154 mil? This might help clarify needs, listed in order of 2019 cap cost within position group:

QB: Rodgers, Kizer, Boyle
WR: D. Adams, Moore, Valdez-Scantling, St. Brown
TE: Graham
RB: J. Williams, A. Jones, Carson
FB: Vitale
OL: Bakhtiari, Bulaga, Linsley, Taylor, Spriggs, Murphy, Madison, Light

DL: Daniels, Clark, M. Adams, Lowry, Looney, Lancaster
Edge: Perry, Fackrell
ILB: Burks, Martinez, Morrison, Crawford
CB: Alexander, King, Jackson, Greene, Redmond, T. Brown
S: T. Williams, J. Jones, Jamerson

ST: Crosby, Davis, Scott, Bradley

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

You can't drop Perry. And you can't drop graham. Both are still pretty good players. It would be nuts to drop them with that kind of dead cap space attached.

Crosby? Save 3 mil after all is said amd done.... I think he is gone.

Daniels? Keeper for sure. Why wouldnt he be?

Bulaga? Ugh. I just want better online. But he is pretty good too. Might be wise to let him play his contract out and get his replacement early in the draft. But 7 mil cap towards a hand picked replacement might be worth a look too....

Tramon? He played well. If he doesn't get injured then we should keep him.
So a cool 40 mil to build a team. Keeping the old cush in the bank.

 

[Alex]

You can't drop Perry

Why not? We basically have his cap number in dead cap every year since he's always hurt. At least this way we are saving $3M one year then he's off the books. Also, even when he's not hurt he's been completely invisible. He made what one play against the Bears? Cut his ***.

 

[rodell330]

I would NOT keep Perry, Bulaga, Cobb, Matthews, or Crosby. If Matthews takes a major pay cut then maybe... but someone will overpay for him just like they will for Cobb. There is NOT one guy on this list who can’t be replaced easily.

 

[Jerellh528]

I would NOT keep Perry, Bulaga, Cobb, Matthews, or Crosby. If Matthews takes a major pay cut then maybe... but someone will overpay for him just like they will for Cobb. There is NOT one guy on this list who can’t be replaced easily.

Get rid of all that dead weight and our cap is really healthy going forward.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You can't drop Perry. And you can't drop graham. Both are still pretty good players. It would be nuts to drop them with that kind of dead cap space attached.

Crosby? Save 3 mil after all is said amd done.... I think he is gone.

Daniels? Keeper for sure. Why wouldnt he be?

Bulaga? Ugh. I just want better online. But he is pretty good too. Might be wise to let him play his contract out and get his replacement early in the draft. But 7 mil cap towards a hand picked replacement might be worth a look too....

Tramon? He played well. If he doesn't get injured then we should keep him.
So a cool 40 mil to build a team. Keeping the old cush in the bank.

The Packers could release any of the players you mentioned as the team getting rid of each of them would result in cap savings. They have to adequately replace them on the field though which might not be that difficult with most of them.

 

[PackAttack12]

I just cannot get on board with cutting Bulaga at this point. I know he's aging and injury prone, but I would shudder to think about the state of our offensive line going into next year without him able to play at least a fraction of the games.

At this point, I'd keep Bulaga for 2019.

 

[Stanger37]

I don't think someone will overpay for Cobb or Matthews. Cobb always seems hurt lately. Matthews gets banged up. Both near the end. I wouldn't be mad if both take big pay cuts to stick around. Especially if they can keep Clay for low and just bring him in on 3rd downs. Cobb if he can stick around for cheap, he seems to have a decent rapport with Rodgers. He comes back to the ball when Rodgers scrambles and Aaron needs that. So for a cheap keep to help progress the other WRs, it'd be ok. But I wouldn't expect much from him in any game but the two vs. Chicago.

I would imagine there is a kicker out there that can be picked up to replace Crosby.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I just cannot get on board with cutting Bulaga at this point. I know he's aging and injury prone, but I would shudder to think about the state of our offensive line going into next year without him able to play at least a fraction of the games.

At this point, I'd keep Bulaga for 2019.

I have to say I've seen nothing from Spriggs or Murphy that makes me think these guys are an answer at RT.

Spriggs has looked respectable at times against poor-to-mediocre edge rushers but then gets beat up by the better ones, pretty much anybody with a second move. And I'd like to know the thought process behind letting an edge run free to double team inside against a DT, Atlanta not the first time we've seen that. I don't think Murphy has ever played a solid half.

There's a combination of quick feet/range and balance, besides the other necessary stuff, that goes into making a decent OT that these guys have not demonstrated. Coming off a season ending foot injury certainly isn't going to improve Murphy's quickness.

Spriggs should be looked at for a move to OG where OT-caliber range is not a prerequisite. He's bulked up considerably since last season and appears to be holding the weight, looking to be about 320 lbs., and his run blocking looks decent. I don't know why that move to OG for Murphy wasn't already a fact this past offseason.

In the "who else ya got" equation, retaining Bulaga makes some sense but he'll be in his contract year and is an ever present injury risk.

I do believe OT needs to be fairly high on the want list.

 

[Mondio]

yeah, Spriggs has been ok, that's about it. He's not as bad as some would like you to believe, but he hasn't given me a reason to think he's a solid Tackle either. Has times, of good and poor. Fine as a back up, but I'd like more out of my starters. I still don't know what people see in Murphy, or saw anyway other than maybe he wasn't Spriggs?