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2018 Receptions totals

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by AmishMafia, Jul 31, 2018.

  1. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Some Pack fans are worried about our WR corps. I'm not. This season we will probably have our best receiving TE and RB corps. This should compensate for our lack of experienced depth at WR. Cobb is hurt a bit, but when healthy he knows how to get open and AR trusts him. I think Montgommery may be used more under new OC. Injury concerns worries me about giving him a higher total. I figure AR is good for 350 receptions, and here are my predictions:

    WR. Adams: 84
    TE Graham 62
    WR Cobb 46

    RB Williams 24
    TE lewis 22
    WR Yancy 22
    TE Rodgers Kendricks 19
    WR Davis 18

    RB Monty 17
    WR JMon Moore 16

    RB Jones, WR EQSB, FB RipK, other ? 18


    Allison is cut and MVS to the practice Squad.

    What do you all think?
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2018
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  2. PackAttack12

    PackAttack12 R-E-L-A-X

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    Assuming reasonable health, I too am good with the WR's group, but I'd be highly concerned if Cobb only catches 46 balls this season. That's putting a lot of pressure on Davante without another proven receptions guy opposite of him on the field.
     
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  3. Beebe82

    Beebe82 Cheesehead

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    Even though Williams will be the primary / starting back I see Jones getting more receptions than Williams.

    I would be very concerned if Richard Rodgers is still catching passes for the Packers this season.
     
  4. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I think that Rodgers will be spreading the ball around more this season. I fully expect Graham to be the 2nd go to guy and Cobb the 3rd.
    Pack will keep the 3 TEs. Rodgers is solid though unspectacular. Sti improving but I believe he appears to be near his ceiling.

    I think Williams may establish himself in those first few games while Jones is out. He can be a very good and reliable player for us. He is easily the best at pass protection and that will go a long way with the coaching staff. I see Jones as a part timer to give Williams a rest and Monty as a novelty play guy.

    I would guess William's gets 50%, Jones 30% and Monty 20% of the snaps.
     
  5. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    umm guys... Richard Rodgers is an Eagle.
     
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  6. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    So you're saying 19 is too many?

    LoL! Now I remember! I did mean to put kendricks in there.
     
  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers don't have a proven starting receiver opposite of Adams no matter how Cobb performs as he will be used predominantly in the slot. I agree the team would hugely benefit from having another threat on the perimeter though.

    Williams seemed to be way more natural catching the ball last season. With Jones missing the early portion of camp and being suspended for the first two games I definitely expect Williams to be more involved in the passing game.
     
  8. RRyder

    RRyder Cheesehead

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    So Yancy is going from the PS to #3 WR and Allison is going from the penciled in #3 to being cut? Color me skeptical

    If Adam's misses any kind of time this season our WR situation is pretty screwed.
     
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  9. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Okay, got you down for being critical but refusing to put your own neck out their with your predictions. Got it.
     
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  10. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    If Cobb only catches 46 balls and he needs to be given the Jordy treatment next off season.
     
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  11. OldSchool101

    OldSchool101 Peerless Beer, Lacrosse WI

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    Assuming Monty doesn’t go out with a sickness or injury.. I see him stepping up in his usual utility role. Graham’s going to take much focus off the screens and dump passes. I see Monty as a veteran getting 30+ passes in an increased role while J’mon or one of the other newbies learn the playbook
    I do think Geronimo is in danger of being bumped back but he still makes the 53.
    His 13.0 yards per career reception are mainly due to a drop in production with Hundley last year. He’s a 15+ yards per reception guy all day long.

    I do agree the TE group takes up a much larger share of the receiving pie (85+ receptions) than the last several years.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2018
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  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I believe he'll be gone whether he catches 46 balls or 96 balls.
     
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  13. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    The #2 WR has to provide at least a credible threat. With Adams more a possession receiver than a deep threat, the safeties will tend to cheat up and toward the middle which neutralizes Cobb and Graham.
     
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  14. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Cobb is a free agent next season therefore the Packers won't have to release him if they decide not to hold on to him.

    The Packers will primarily use Montgomery as a running back. Aside of having a 72-yard reception with Rodgers throwing the ball Allison has only averaged 12.4 yards with #12 playing as well.
     
  15. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Yes, you are correct about Cobb.
     
  16. ErIstGute

    ErIstGute Cheesehead

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    What on earth makes you think Allison gets cut? He's been having a great camp so far and is currently the front-runner for the #3 spot.
     
  17. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I went back over Rodgers' career to stat out what I think we might expect in 2018, giving special significance to the years he spent with Philbin, seeing as how original OC is now back. I statted out Rodgers based on that, and then distributed his production among the pass catchers based on their histories and what I perceive as their role in this offense. This is assuming health, of course, but this is what I came up with:

    Passing:

    Rodgers: 530 attempts, 350 completions, 66% completion, 8.5 YPA, 4508 yards, 36 touchdowns, 8 interceptions

    Receiving:

    Adams: 95 receptions, 14.0 YPR, 1330 yards, 12 touchdowns
    Cobb: 65 receptions, 11.5 YPR, 748 yards, 5 touchdowns
    Graham: 60 receptions, 12.5 YPR, 750 yards, 11 touchdowns
    Jones: 40 receptions, 10.4 YPR, 415 yards, 1 touchdown
    Allison: 35 receptions, 14 YPR, 490 yards, 3 touchdown
    Moore: 20 receptions, 16 YPR, 320 yards, 2 touchdown
    Montgomery: 15 receptions, 10 YPR, 150 yards
    Williams: 10 receptions, 9 YPR, 90 yards
    Lewis: 10 receptions, 12 YPR, 120 yards, 2 touchdown
    Davis: 5 receptions, 19 YPR, 95 yards
    Total: 350 receptions, 4508 yards, 36 touchdowns

    I gave Adams a season in line with peak Jordy Nelson-- I think he's that good, and there's no doubt that he has that role in the offense. In most seasons, about five wide receivers actually accrue stats, as seen here. Graham's YPR is basically the average of his five years in Seattle. The wonkiest thing about it to me is that the RB stats came out with a high YPR in my attempt to get things matched up. But on the whole, I think this is fairly realistic.
     
  18. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Limited upside athletically and a pot head. I thought he would have to do much better than yancy, which he did in the family night. Right now he makes it and yancy is gone.

    As I said, I would expect AR to spread the ball much more than you have. My o ly criticism is Lewis. Not sure he was ever used much as a WR during his career, but AR went to him 2x last night and Lewis caught the ball smoothly. I know it is a small sample, but he sure looked liked he can catch well. I would probably revise my 22 and put him at 35 receptions on the year. He may very well set career highs now that he has a good QB in a TE friendly offense.
     
    Last edited: Aug 5, 2018
  19. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    I agree in that I think Allison is something of a dubious person with limited athletic ability, but Rodgers clearly likes him and he has a lot more experience that everyone except Adams and Cobb. So I think he's safe.

    Lewis might produce more than I projected, but I think he's going to be a blocker far more often than he's a receiver. That's his best skill set at this point in his career. As for setting career highs-- he'd have to top 58/700/10, which I don't see happening in any scenario.
     
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  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Allison might be the front runner to make the team as the third receiver because he has experience in the Packers system but him having limited upside compared to this year's draft picks might result in him ending up getting cut.
     
  21. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I'd guess that Kendricks and Davis might have 10 each, Ty will have at least 20 if healthy (he had 44 in 2016), Graham will have closer to 80, and the rookies will have close to zero barring injury. I also don't see any way that they cut Allison considering MM loves 3 WR sets and that would leave them with some really unproven guys on the field.
     
  22. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    At least one of the rookie wide receivers will most likely have to put up decent numbers for the passing game to be successful.
     
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  23. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    When I took the approach of how many catches each individual player should get, I came up with 600 receptions total. I cant disagree with your numbers, but to get to a reasonable amount of total receptions, you have to cut back somewhere.
     
  24. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Rookie wide receivers rarely transition well to the NFL in their first year. The success of AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Keenan Allen has sort of thrown that off a bit. I see no reason why a great year from Adams, a good year from Cobb, and a decent year from Allison wouldn't be sufficient from the wide receivers considering that Graham is basically a slot receiver also.
     
  25. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Look at my numbers as more of general trends. I thought Graham and Ty would have more than you indicated and the rookies/other TEs would probably have less. That's all I was trying to get across.
     

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