Packers by position DLine

[AmishMafia]

I know Dante just posted an excellent look at the entire roster, but its cumbersome to discuss individuals and various positions. Besides, I wrote all this 2 weeks ago and the LB one as well. I'm not going to waste em. Planning on all of them throughout the offseason.


Anyhow, without further ado . . .


DL
Clark, Lowry, Adams, Lancaster, and Keke

Kenny Clark. He becomes a FA in 2021, but he is a stud who makes the whole defense work. He played average for most of the year, but came on strong towards the end. He is a high character guy and a leader, quiet, but a leader on the team. Resign - 4 years $58M

Dean Lowry. A good player who has probably maxed out. He does his job and occasionally makes a play. A solid lunch pail guy you can win games with.

Montravarious Adams - At times he has looked like he is going to be really good. Then you don't see him for a few games. Not sure what is going on with him. I expected him to be making a splash this season. Maybe he is hurt? Don't know - but he gets another year to see where he is at.

Tyler Lancaster - Surprised me how well he has played. He has not maxed out and will continue ascending. Stood out to me in July. He was very energetic out there and was taking time to talk to rookies and show them technique. He is still a work in progress and below average. I expect him to improve next season.

Kingsly Keke - Played well in the preseason as a rookie. Has not done much in the regular season. He has 10 total tackles on the year and has played sparingly. Saw him shoot a gap in NFCCG. Not sure how many snaps he had, but he flashed ability there.


FAs Available

Chris Jones, Clowny, Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Armstead, DJ Reader, Danny Shelton,

Chris Jones - KC will likely keep him. Only 25 yo and 24.5 sacks in 2 years. Will probably get a megadeal. Can dominate and I suspect he is just getting started. 6'6" and 310 he has scary athletic ability. I would love to add him to the Packers - but I think we need to put our money elsewhere. I do think he would be worth the money if we did spend it. Suspect he will be over $15M per year.

Clowny will get much more money than we should think of spending. I also don't trust the guy, not sure what his level of effort will be in a non-contract year. I would trust Gute to get the dirt on his character. Based on the signings last year, character has a big part in the decision process.

Leonard Williams - I have been a fan for a bit. Can play the run and gets some pass rush/pocket collapse. But NYG traded for him, I think they will do everything they can to resign him so as not to make themselves look foolish. Are only hope is if he wants to go to a SB contender.

Jarran Reed - character issues. Had a breakout year last year (10.5 sacks) and more modest this year (5 sacks). I just don't trust him.

Arik Armstead - Breakout season with 10 sacks. More than he had in his first 4 years. ALthough subtracting from SF is a bonus, I think he greatly benefits from the defenders around him, or he just ramped it up for the contract. I pass.

Surprising number of quality players are FAs. Suspect there will be a player or two here who are reasonable. Shelton will be the cheapest of these but is only a modest improvement.


Draft Targets

1st : If either of these guys are there, we pull this trigger

AJ Epenesa - I doubt he is available at our pick, but if he is, it would be tremendous value. He will probably be gone by the 15th pick. Has great pass rush potential. Got 2 sacks in bowl against Austin Jackson - a 1st round OT.

Derrick Brown - a monster and playmaker. He will also be long gone before our pick, the lack of pass rush, drops him behind Epenesa.

2nd : Raekweon Davis - late 1st to mid 2nd. Worth consideration with our first pick - but not a steal. Is a rock, very difficult to move. Surprisingly athletic for such a big guy with very good horizontal movement. Would hold the LOS but not necessarily get much pass rush. Would be a great value pick with our 2nd. Can play him at NT and move Clark to 5T. We play a lot of 2 DL. Davis and Clark would be a very interesting combination and would free up our LBs. I keep thinking about it and wonder if the impact he would make would be a good move with our first round pick.

4th Jordan Elliott - good skill set, will develop into at least a solid player. Good value in the 4th.


Bottom Line

I think our woes in the NFCCG had more to do with our ILB play than DL play. We have three ascending players and I would expect to be better on the DL next year without any moves. I think we should roll with what we have. Maybe I bring in a Leonard Williams and see if I can get something done for under $10M a year, but otherwise I think our draft capital and our Cap dollars on other positions.

 

[Dantés]

My take on Adams-- I think he has the talent to get into the backfield as fast or faster than anyone on the roster, but he doesn't have the awareness or instincts to find the ball once he gets there. So he can look very impressive, but on a down to down basis he doesn't actually make plays.

I think the Packers need to find an upfield player. Clark is a stud and Lowry has his role. Lancaster is worthy depth and Keke may turn in to something in time. But they need someone who can give them quality snaps and create disruption.

Javon Hargrave, Shelby Harris, Maliek Collins, and Nick Williams come to mind.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I can't get with Lancaster being an ascending player. To me he's more of a "try-hard, max-effort" kind of player. He's like the defensive version of Kumerow, he'll make one splash play a game, and then that's the last time you hear from him.

Adams may have the physical tools, but maybe he just can't put it together mentally, remember we had a certain defensive back who was like that....to give him another year with major snaps is asking for the 49ers(who we play again next year) to do what they did last weekend to us in 2020.

Bosa makes any DL amazing. I'm not saying Clark is Bosa, but he could have a similar effect. I still want Solomon Thomas for cheap too.

I would love Raekwon Davis anywhere on our line. Granted anyone can slide but I'll only dwell on the prospects who I deem realistic.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Bottom Line

I think our woes in the NFCCG had more to do with our ILB play than DL play. We have three ascending players and I would expect to be better on the DL next year without any moves. I think we should roll with what we have. Maybe I bring in a Leonard Williams and see if I can get something done for under $10M a year, but otherwise I think our draft capital and our Cap dollars on other positions.

In my opinion the Packers have one stud on the defensive line in Clark surrounded by average players at best. In my opinion Gutekunst needs to either add another impact defensive lineman or inside linebacker during the offseason to prevent another opponent from running wild against the defense.

 

[AmishMafia]

In my opinion the Packers have one stud on the defensive line in Clark surrounded by average players at best. In my opinion Gutekunst needs to either add another impact defensive lineman or inside linebacker during the offseason to prevent another opponent from running wild against the defense.

So Keke and Lancaster arent going to get any better?


It takes time for the big boys to develop. Lancaster was a known raw talent. He is very strong and ran a sub 5 sec 40 at over 310lbs. There is a lot to work with there and has shown excellent play vrs the run. He is a high character guy and I believe he will work hard at his craft.


We definitely need to add talent at ILB. If we can add a impactful DL in draft or FA, we should consider it.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I think Lancaster and KeKe especially could get better, but I don't see 2020 as a breakout year for either. Just like many on here who'd love to be wrong on that, we need someone who's a stud now. Lancaster and Keke seem like late bloomers to me.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So Keke and Lancaster arent going to get any better?

We have had this discussion on numerous occasions but while it's possible that both Keke and Lancaster improve the Packers shouldn't rely on it happening. The front office needs to make sure that the defensive line performs at a higher level next season and solely expecting them to develop isn't good enough to be confident about that occurring.

 

[AmishMafia]

We have had this discussion on numerous occasions but while it's possible that both Keke and Lancaster improve the Packers shouldn't rely on it happening. The front office needs to make sure that the defensive line performs at a higher level next season and solely expecting them to develop isn't good enough to be confident about that occurring.

We cant replace every developing player. That is 75% of every roster. We cant draft a ready for prime time player, all picks need time to develop. So you are talking about having to sign 2 mid level DEs. 2 ILBs, a CB, 2 WRs, and 2 TEs. That's about $120M to the salary cap which of course is impossible. You cant do it all and you have to develop players and not do a knee jerk reaction to a few poor performances by a developing player.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I'd also point out that the best player on the dline is great rushing the QB but pretty average against the run (and the others on the dline are worse against the run than him). An improvement at ILB would help but the team really needs to find some dlinemen that can play against the run or that ILB is going to be fighting off guards all game long. Since the pass rush is really coming from the Smiths and Clark, finding some players that can hold their ground against the run would be really helpful (especially considering how much the Packers like to play nickel).

 

[XPack]

Everyone on the D line except Clark is at best a rotation player. We need to beef up that line with better players.

Arik Armstead (SF)
Chris Jones (KC)
Vic Beasley (ATL)
Yannick Ngakoue (JAC)

Aged 30+

Jason Pierre-Paul (TB)
Derek Wolfe (DEN)

 

[Dantés]

So Keke and Lancaster arent going to get any better?


It takes time for the big boys to develop. Lancaster was a known raw talent. He is very strong and ran a sub 5 sec 40 at over 310lbs. There is a lot to work with there and has shown excellent play vrs the run. He is a high character guy and I believe he will work hard at his craft.


We definitely need to add talent at ILB. If we can add a impactful DL in draft or FA, we should consider it.

They can allow those guys to develop while still adding help to the DL rotation. They aren't mutually exclusive.

 

[AmishMafia]

They can allow those guys to develop while still adding help to the DL rotation. They aren't mutually exclusive.

You missed the point. Improving other areas of the team are mutually exclusive. You cant replace all your developing players with established players. Too expensive. Too many of them. Salary Cap and all.

 

[mradtke66]

Replace Adams and look for a DL that is good enough to warrant keeping 6 iDL. Clark, Lowry, Keke, Lancaster, New Guy 1, New Guy 2. If 1 or both are run pluggers, we're in a good spot.

 

[Dantés]

You missed the point. Improving other areas of the team are mutually exclusive. You cant replace all your developing players with established players. Too expensive. Too many of them. Salary Cap and all.

Totally. I forgot that you can't spend the same dollar on two things and that the salary cap exists. Good catch.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Replace Adams and look for a DL that is good enough to warrant keeping 6 iDL. Clark, Lowry, Keke, Lancaster, New Guy 1, New Guy 2. If 1 or both are run pluggers, we're in a good spot.

If you're keeping 6 DL, where is the cut coming from? What position group?

 

[Dantés]

If you're keeping 6 DL, where is the cut coming from? What position group?

They actually opened 2019 with six defensive linemen.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Fair enough, but why they kept Fadol Brown and didn't keep Baylis or Ramsey was a mystery to me.

 

[mradtke66]

If you're keeping 6 DL, where is the cut coming from? What position group?

My general thought on the roster is the last guy in the group, and typically every group, is largely expendable. The 6th iDL. The 9th OL. The 6th WR. etc.

Which is why I phrased my statement as carefully as I did:

" look for a DL that is good enough to warrant keeping 6 iDL."

Try to find someone good enough that we're forced to keep 6.

 

[Dantés]

Fair enough, but why they kept Fadol Brown and didn't keep Baylis or Ramsey was a mystery to me.

That's fine. My point is simply that 6 defensive linemen is not an unusual number.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That's fine. My point is simply that 6 defensive linemen is not an unusual number.

Seven guys are inactive every week. Overweighting one position group over another at opening day comes down to two factors:

1) Who's injured, but not injured enough to be put on PUP or IR.

2) Who's more likely to be signed away to a 53 man roster if cut instead of being signed to the practice squad.

 

[melvin dangerr]

How about FA hopefuls like: Javon Hardgrave NT 11.5 sacks Pittsburg, and Jordan Phillips DT Buffalo

 

[gopkrs]

Just think we have a lot of areas of need so that TE is down the list for me. Would rather go D line/ inside backer.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

We cant replace every developing player. That is 75% of every roster. We cant draft a ready for prime time player, all picks need time to develop. So you are talking about having to sign 2 mid level DEs. 2 ILBs, a CB, 2 WRs, and 2 TEs. That's about $120M to the salary cap which of course is impossible. You cant do it all and you have to develop players and not do a knee jerk reaction to a few poor performances by a developing player.

I'm definitely not advocating to replace every developing player on the roster. The Packers shouldn't solely rely on the ones you mentioned to improve a position group in dire need of improvement.

I'd also point out that the best player on the dline is great rushing the QB but pretty average against the run (and the others on the dline are worse against the run than him).

Clark is an above average run stopper as well but surrounded by inferior talent.

 

[RepStar15]

FAs Available

Chris Jones, Clowny, Leonard Williams, Jarran Reed, Armstead, DJ Reader, Danny Shelton,

Chris Jones - KC will likely keep him. Only 25 yo and 24.5 sacks in 2 years. Will probably get a megadeal. Can dominate and I suspect he is just getting started. 6'6" and 310 he has scary athletic ability. I would love to add him to the Packers - but I think we need to put our money elsewhere. I do think he would be worth the money if we did spend it. Suspect he will be over $15M per year.

Clowny will get much more money than we should think of spending. I also don't trust the guy, not sure what his level of effort will be in a non-contract year. I would trust Gute to get the dirt on his character. Based on the signings last year, character has a big part in the decision process.

Leonard Williams - I have been a fan for a bit. Can play the run and gets some pass rush/pocket collapse. But NYG traded for him, I think they will do everything they can to resign him so as not to make themselves look foolish. Are only hope is if he wants to go to a SB contender.

Jarran Reed - character issues. Had a breakout year last year (10.5 sacks) and more modest this year (5 sacks). I just don't trust him.

Arik Armstead - Breakout season with 10 sacks. More than he had in his first 4 years. ALthough subtracting from SF is a bonus, I think he greatly benefits from the defenders around him, or he just ramped it up for the contract. I pass.

Surprising number of quality players are FAs. Suspect there will be a player or two here who are reasonable. Shelton will be the cheapest of these but is only a modest improvement.

I would like them to go after Jordan Phillips. He will be cost effective (could get away with a 3 year 20 million deal) and will be an immediate upgrade to the line. Unless you spend a 1st and 2nd on ILB and DL in this years draft, it will be unlikely to get an immediate starter. I think the packers should go out and sign a guy like this. Try to get Murray or Queen in the first round, then leave the second round open for a WR.

 

[AmishMafia]

I would like them to go after Jordan Phillips. He will be cost effective (could get away with a 3 year 20 million deal) and will be an immediate upgrade to the line. Unless you spend a 1st and 2nd on ILB and DL in this years draft, it will be unlikely to get an immediate starter. I think the packers should go out and sign a guy like this. Try to get Murray or Queen in the first round, then leave the second round open for a WR.

Phillips is an interesting player. He is just massive and is surprising fast. One of those guys who should do much better than his actual production. Not sure how much money he might get. $7M seemed high to me at first, but maybe.