"It's a Copycat League"

[HardRightEdge]

We hear that a lot. Here's an interesting illustration of how that works at the micro level, stealing and adapting plays to the scheme:.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ree-nfl-coaches-discuss-their-favorite-heists

LaFleur: "We steal plays on a weekly basis."

Moving up from the micro level, Philly installing a bunch of RPO plays for Foles, stolen straight out of college football, running essentially a dual scheme right through the Super Bowl, was a brilliant piece of coaching and player execution.

The point being, at one level or another, adapt or die.

 

[PackAttack12]

We hear that a lot. Here's an interesting illustration of how that works at the micro level, stealing and adapting plays to the scheme:.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id...ree-nfl-coaches-discuss-their-favorite-heists

LaFleur: "We steal plays on a weekly basis."

Moving up from the micro level, Philly installing a bunch of RPO plays for Foles, stolen straight out of college football, running essentially a dual scheme right through the Super Bowl, was a brilliant piece of coaching and player execution.

The point being, at one level or another, adapt or die.

This pretty much goes to show the lack of creativeness, or lack of adjusting/adapting that we witnessed in recent years with McCarthy. He was a good head coach, but the scheme left a lot to be desired with the way things operate in today's NFL.

I'm on the fence about how LaFleur will be as a leader of men and an overall game manager, but one thing I'm certain of is that he's very well comfortable with adapting to the constant changes in the league. That much is encouraging.

I'm excited to see Rodgers in his offense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

This pretty much goes to show the lack of creativeness, or lack of adjusting/adapting that we witnessed in recent years with McCarthy. He was a good head coach, but the scheme left a lot to be desired with the way things operate in today's NFL.

I'm on the fence about how LaFleur will be as a leader of men and an overall game manager, but one thing I'm certain of is that he's very well comfortable with adapting to the constant changes in the league. That much is encouraging.

I'm excited to see Rodgers in his offense.

McCarthy was steeped in "process", obsessing about things like plotting out practice schedules and their composition well in advance. His process included sticking with some stuff that wasn't working to give those concepts a chance to breath. There's a lot to be said for that, predictability and schematic discpline in the house and not jumping willy nilly to the next next thing.

I think McCarthy's staleness was a factor in offensive difficulties, but not to the degree a lot of folks want to claim. Purported features of a LaFleur offense are combo routes out of stack and bunch formations. McCarthy ran those often, if not a staple. LaFleur is a proponent of the outside zone run blocking scheme. McCarthy ran that a lot. LaFleur purportedly likes to mix in jet sweeps and end-arounds, which we've seen a little in this preseason. McCarthy ran those, but with WRs having three carries last season it was rare. LaFluer will purportedly run the ball more. While last seasons excruciatingly low number of RB carries (281) presents a low bar, how much more will depend on a lot factors beyond pre-disposition: who is available to the carry the ball in a particular week or month, how often and by how much the team is trailing in second halves, how well the defense is performing so as to not fall back to "just outscore 'em" mode. Adaptability is what we're looking for, right, not the same thing over and over according to some purported template?

My post clearly aluded to McCarthy staleness. But my point would be it was more at the micro level, the specific play level, the matchup level, than the macro scheme level. McCarthy ran too much of this and not enough of that in certain situations, which increased the odds of being predictable on certain plays. Stealing a little of this or little of that on a weekly basis puts something on the field that is not on the tape; a wider mix of plays in particular circumstances keeps defenses off balance.

So, I would say McCarthy did not fail structurally; it was a matter of game prep and some specific play calls from week to week compounded by the reported issues of "complacency" and "lack of accountability". An overweening reliance on "process" might be a contributing factor in that complacency. Injecting some wrinkles on a week-to-week basis can get coaches and players out of their hum drum comfort zones. If those wrinkles start working, you elevate the level excitement in the project, no small thing at all. That goes a long way. I can't think of a better guy to implement wrinkles than Aaron Rodgers. All you need to do is get his buy in that week. I don't think that is as hard as some would want you to believe. He's an inherently imaginative player.

There's a few minutes of tape out there somewhere in the ether of Belichick game planning with Brady in his office, just the two of them. Belichick slow plays a couple of things he thinks might work in the upcomming game along the likes of, "I'm thinking this might work; what do you think?" He gets Brady's buy-in. A good coach, or any good manager of people, is a good "horse whisper". That's a skill LaFleur needs to acquire if he doesn't have it already to be effective with a guy like Rodgers. Of course the more his innovations work the easier it will be.

 

[greengold]

Mike McCarthy was Mike Sherman Part Deux.... Both considered themselves QB gurus and offensive passing game geniuses.... Holy crap. They both forgot about having a balanced run/pass attack, and it cost us dearly in unrealized SB wins. I firmly believe this. Both should have had a gigantic Dominos logo on the opposite side of their play call sheets.

LaFleur gets it. Rodgers is FAR less likely to get injured once opposing defenses are forced to honor the run. It is coming.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Mike McCarthy was Mike Sherman Part Deux.... Both considered them selves QB gurus and offensive passing game geniuses.... Holy crap. They both forgot about having a balanced run/pass attack, and it cost us dearly in unrealized SB wins. I firmly believe this. Both should have had a gigantic Dominos logo on the opposite side of their play call sheets.

LaFleur gets it. Rodgers is FAR less likely to get injured once opposing defenses are forced to honor the run. It is coming.

Well, that might be the case if things go according to plan. One step at a time. If in Week 1 the Packers are down to the Bears 20-0 in the third quarter like last year, there won't be much running of the ball in that second half. I firmly believe this.

 

[greengold]

We shall see.

 

[mradtke66]

We shall see.

I'm not sure we'll see that much more running vs. McCarthy long term. More than how his legacy ended, but for most of career, he was pretty balanced.

2018: 65/35
2017: 60/40
2016: 68/32
2015: 56/43
2014: 55/45
2013: 55/45
2012: 56/44

2018 and 2016 were pretty out of whack, 2017 slightly out of whack. Roughly 55/45 is, imho, the right balance. We're built to pass, and we should be with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. 50/50 is probably too much running, as it plays away from our strengths.

 

[mongoosev]

mr. miyagi once said to daniel son, "Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”


I have no idea!

 

[HardRightEdge]

mr. miyagi once said to daniel son, "Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
runnin

I have no idea!

I have a vague idea. The more you lead games and the more points in that spread, the more running you'll see. It's d*mn near axiomatic.

I'm not sure we'll see that much more running vs. McCarthy long term. More than how his legacy ended, but for most of career, he was pretty balanced.

2018: 65/35
2017: 60/40
2016: 68/32
2015: 56/43
2014: 55/45
2013: 55/45
2012: 56/44

2018 and 2016 were pretty out of whack, 2017 slightly out of whack. Roughly 55/45 is, imho, the right balance. We're built to pass, and we should be with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. 50/50 is probably too much running, as it plays away from our strengths.

Those kinds of stats can be deceiving. You have to add sacks into the pass play column (53 last season). Rodgers and Kizer had 48 carries; how many of those were called runs? Darn few. A sneak or two and maybe some kneel-downs, not many.

The best way to guage play mix is RB carries as a percentage of total plays. I'm disinclined to include the 3 WR carries or Greene's fake punt run in the rushing column; I'd put those in the gadget play column since none of them came from a backfield position. No wildcats on that team.

I come up with 281 RB carries. That's a very low number, 18 per game.

Official snap counts, such as the Packers 1075 on offense last season, include penalties. Since it would be next to impossible to figure out which penalties go in which column, we can go with executed plays, which would be passes, runs and sacks. That's 1,026 snaps.

So, RB carried the ball on 27% of the executed plays. If it seemed like running backs carried the ball only about 1/4 of the plays it is because they did.

The reason 2016 and 2018 have particularly low numbers has something to do with who was playing.

In 2016, Lacy got injured and played only 5 games. Starks, coming off a season where he led the team in yards from scrimage, was injured, again. Montgomery was converted to running back and led the team in rushing with 457 yards on 77 carries. Michael, Don Jackson, Knile Davis, meh.

In 2018, Jones missed 4 games and was probably on limited snap counts for several of the rest. After Montgomery was cut, the only RB other Jones or Williams who had a carry was Bibbs with only one. Depth was so bad toward the end of the season that Williams took all 86 snaps in the week 16 game which is ridiculous. That's probably an NFL record for a RB. By the way, under those circumstances, Williams' 156 yards on 21 touches (15 run, 6 pass) is also ridiculous. (PS: There should never have been a question of cutting that warrior.)

So, besides how often, how early, and by how much a team is leading, another key determinant in how much you run the ball is the kinds of horses you have, and have healthy, at the position. It helps to have more than one you can put on the field in any given game.