I see Perry going crazy for us right out of the gate like Matthews 3 years ago, including getting some hard-hit crush shots on some marquee QB's which will make an immediate name for himself.
I see TKO's on Cutler in week 2, Brees in week 4, and Schaub in week 6, the latter 2 games both on primetime TV.
By then, defenses are forced to worry about him on the same scale as the other side with the Claymaker. That opens things up inside for Jarel Worthy, BJ Raji, Mike Daniels, and then the off-suspensded Anthony Hargrove. By November 25th when we travel to play the Giants, this team is #1 in the NFL in sacks, and they lick their chops heading into the Meadowlands to crush Eli Manning.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012
On balance, SackSEER believes that 2012 will be a fairly poor year for edge rushers, with only one strong prospect and a slew of likely-to-disappoint high-round picks. Last year, SackSEER 2.0 projected eight edge rushers to hit 20.0 sacks or more, led by
Von Miller, who had the seventh highest SackSEER projection of all-time. SackSEER 2.0 only projects four of this year's prospects to reach 20.0 sacks in their first five years in the league -— and they’re not necessarily the four whom you would expect.
What follows are SackSEER projections and ratings for all of the edge rushers invited to the combine who have recorded pre-draft workout data to-date:
#1 -Nick Perry, USC
Proj. Round 1
Explosion Index +1.25
SRAM 0.59
PD Rate 0.16
Missed Games 1
SackSEER Projection 28.0
SackSEER Rating 90.6%
Although Nick Perry is not an elite prospect in the mold of
Von Miller, he is nevertheless a strong prospect that SackSEER likes more than any other in this class, regardless of draft position.
SackSEER's optimism for Perry comes from his outstanding combine performance, where he scored highly in all of the drills that make up the explosion index. Perry recorded a 4.64 forty-yard dash, a 38.5" vertical leap, and a 10'4" broad jump. Perry's vertical leap and broad jump are a full standard deviation above the mean performance for edge rushers, and his forty-yard dash is nearly as good. These numbers are all the more impressive considering that Perry has above-average bulk at 270 pounds. Interestingly, Perry performed poorly in the short shuttle drill and slightly below average on the three-cone, so he is a great test case for SackSEER 2.0's methodological decision to drop the agility drills.
Perry's college production is not outstanding, but it is good enough. His sack production came in peaks and valleys: he recorded an impressive 9.0 sacks as a freshman, bottomed out at 4.0 sacks as a sophomore, and bounced back to another 9.0 sack outing as a junior. A great sign of pro success is the ability to dominate early in college, much like
Terrell Suggs and
Aldon Smith did, but Perry's production is not quite as good as Suggs' or Smith's. Perry's pass defensed rate is just average.
#2 -Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
Proj. Round 1
Explosion Index +0.11
SRAM 0.56
PD Rate 0.06
Missed Games 1
SackSEER Projection 21.5
SackSEER Rating 51.3%
Whitney Mercilus has average-to-good athleticism and no notable off-field or injury issues (unless you count a bizarre weight room accident that took part of his finger). However, the pattern of his production falls disturbingly close to
Jamaal Anderson's. Anderson had no sacks as a freshman, four sacks as a sophomore, and then an SEC-leading 13.5 sacks as a junior before Atlanta took him with the eighth overall pick in the 2007 draft. Like Anderson, Mercilus was a non-entity as a freshman and sophomore (one sack each year), but had an amazing junior year, in which he led the NCAA in sacks with 16.0. Another good comparison for Mercilus might be
Robert Quinn, who similarly had slightly above-average workouts and only one productive college season.
Although Mercilus' lack of early career production could be attributable to being stuck behind Clay Nurse on the depth chart, that in and of itself could be part of the problem. Nurse was a marginal NFL talent that went undrafted and has never been any more than a camp body. If Illinois' coaches did not see enough from Mercilus in practice to bench Nurse for him, the chances are good that he was not playing like a future first-round pick.
SackSEER would have more confidence that Mercilus could replicate his junior year performance at the professional level if his pass defensed rate suggested that his raw sack numbers underrepresented the extent to which he caused problems for opposing quarterbacks. However, Mercilus' pass defensed numbers suggest the opposite: he only defensed two passes in 36 games, which is well below average for a drafted edge rusher.
#3 -Shea McClellin, Boise State
Proj. Round 1-2
Explosion Index +0.24
SRAM 0.40
PD Rate 0.16
Missed Games 2
SackSEER Projection 20.1
SackSEER Rating 62.9%
Heading into the Combine, Shea McClellin was rated as a fourth-round prospect, and he would have been an excellent bargain there. However, McClellin's stock has skyrocketed to the early first-round / late second-round range. McClellin is a nice prospect, but his SackSEER rating is just a little lower than you would like for a player who could go in the first round. Most of his hype has come from his solid 4.63 second forty-yard dash time, but his jumps were less impressive: 31.5" for the vertical and 9'4" for the broad. McClellin has only two missed games, but also has only average production.
See the guys rated lower:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2012/sackseer-2012