Which Two Wide Outs do we want?

[PikeBadger]

I really feel like a trade up from #53 is in play.

Another move at WR if the remaining players are not yet a value on their board at #28? not Gutes historical method, but he should trade back to this range
#31 Cinci (they leap frog KC)
#33 Jags (pick up 5th year option)
#35 Jets (“ “)

With Cinci #31 we’d likely swap our #132 for their #95 and we could throw in our last 7th rounder to sweeten things.

At Jags #33, we’d get the bonus, a first selection of Day 3 (#106). This is the ideal one because we get the night to ponder everyone left after BOTH Day 1 and Day 2. I like that thought and I bet there’s a stud there at #33 and #106. Plus we can (have the option) negotiate #92 package with #53 and get another top 40 range guy. That last scenario is #22, #33, #40 #59 #106, #132, #140, #171 etc..

The reason a team trades up from 31 to 28 is because that team fears that the player they want is about to picked ahead of them. The team at 28 should always insist on a premium (better than chart value) for that pick in their trade negotiations.

 

[gopkrs]

I believe he is saying the chance to have the 5th year option is added incentive for the other teams to make the trade.

Just want to state the obvious. Drafting someone in the 1st round is certainly more valuable due to the 5th year. Like right now we are not worrying so much about Jaire. It does get expensive at some positions but not as much as the contract will be and you have more time to make a contract. And a really good player will want a contract as opposed to playing on a one year deal imho.

 

[OldSchool101]

You must really like somebody at #40. In your scenario they go back 28 to 33. Move up from 53 to 40. Go back from 92 to 106. So the decision would have to be made depending who is still on the board at 28. I know it is small but I hate dropping from 92 to 106.

You hate dropping from 92 to 106 (14 spots) but you don’t value the trade off of moving up (13 slots) from 53 to 40 overall? O….K

Did the league change the 5th year option? I thought that it was only available for first round picks?

Those (parentheses) next to Cincinnati and the Jets are (the logical motivation) behind the moves on their side, not ours.

Cinci (leapfrogs KC). We’re not leapfrogging anyone. We’d go backwards. We Might be turtle walking someone. Lol.
the (Jets acquire a 5th Day option etc..).

Yeah you saw 33- 5th Year option and it didn’t compute. I get it.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just want to state the obvious. Drafting someone in the 1st round is certainly more valuable due to the 5th year. Like right now we are not worrying so much about Jaire. It does get expensive at some positions but not as much as the contract will be and you have more time to make a contract. And a really good player will want a contract as opposed to playing on a one year deal imho.

Agreed. It also potentially rewards the team for making the investment of a valuable draft asset and accompanying salary.

What I'm tired of are players that suddenly want to circumvent the 4-5 year contract and get a major deal. Was good to hear TK Metcalf is honoring his contract and showing up for OTA's with a "I need to lead by example" mentality.

 

[OldSchool101]

The reason a team trades up from 31 to 28 is because that team fears that the player they want is about to picked ahead of them. The team at 28 should always insist on a premium (better than chart value) for that pick in their trade negotiations.

?? That selection IS a premium. It’s almost identical to what Ted did in 2017, except we keep our 5th year option and in 2017 we gave that away to Cleveland
In that example, Ted went 29 to 33 and hit the 108 bonus (1st selection of day 3). The move back from 28 to 31 is literally 20 points in our favor (in 2017 it was 18 points in our favor and we lost a 5th year option) We just executed this move 5 years ago Albeit at 11:32pm at night after waiting all Damn night for us to pick Opening night of the draft and only to go to bed angry! I didn’t fall asleep that draft night hmmm. If you did you were smarter than me I was the sucker that waited all night.

I bet you remember this part:
The Steelers selected TJ Watt and we got King 3 selections and 18 hours later.
Then a day after that at 108 got Biegel LB from the Badgers instead of Watt!! Then Biegel got married and had both feet operated on!! What a total cluster of lost value. That was the beginning of the end for old TT. God probably made him spend a night in purgatory for that draft. In all seriousness he’s a Christian he’s alive and well. Thank you Jesus
I’m still sore about that I think we all wanted Watt that night. It was a no brainer

 

[PikeBadger]

Yep, I wanted Watt also. Maybe the safest late first round pick in the history of the 32 team draft. Intangibles off the chart. Very close to a can't miss pick. IMO.

 

[OldSchool101]

Yep, I wanted Watt also. Maybe the safest late first round pick in the history of the 32 team draft. Intangibles off the chart. Very close to a can't miss pick. IMO.

Keep in mind I’m not saying a trade back is our only avenue. This was posted more to display one of a host of ways we can move around the board relatively early without too much punishment. I have no idea where the Packers specifically have players valued. I do think we can move on the board to sink our teeth into the juicy areas, if even needed.

I’ve seen Several “in the know” that have Christian Watson before Treylon Burks overall. That shows you how little I know about individual players.

If we’re still in need of a WR (we may go BPA with #22) and the early grouping is gone?
then Alec Pierce, George Pickens, Sky Moore and Wa’dale Robinson are likely slight to moderate “reaching” at #28. Yet if we’re going to reach slightly then get that bonus 4th rounder… or even move up to pick twice in that 30-40 range to stick 2 formidable Receivers.
We could go a pair like Pickens + Pierce and feel pretty darn good with our WR room.

Im hoping London gets near our # to start things out. I know that’s wishful

 

[tynimiller]

I'd take Pickens at 22 and not blink

 

[OldSchool101]

I'd take Pickens at 22 and not blink

Blink 22.
Nice one there Tyni. Very nice

 

[Schultz]

You hate dropping from 92 to 106 (14 spots) but you don’t value the trade off of moving up (13 slots) from 53 to 40 overall? O….K

Those (parentheses) next to Cincinnati and the Jets are (the logical motivation) behind the moves on their side, not ours.

Cinci (leapfrogs KC). We’re not leapfrogging anyone. We’d go backwards. We Might be turtle walking someone. Lol.
the (Jets acquire a 5th Day option etc..).

Yeah you saw 33- 5th Year option and it didn’t compute. I get it.

You conveniently forgot to mention the dropping from 28 to 33 part.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yep, I wanted Watt also. Maybe the safest late first round pick in the history of the 32 team draft. Intangibles off the chart. Very close to a can't miss pick. IMO.

Ditto for me...I don't feel quite as confident in Leo Chenal, but if the Packers got him late 2nd round, I'd be happy. Unless, they hadn't addressed WR of course.

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[tynimiller]

Ditto for me...I don't feel quite as confident in Leo Chenal, but if the Packers got him late 2nd round, I'd be happy. Unless, they hadn't addressed WR of course.

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Honestly with Campbell here there are a ton of different directions that GB could go at ILB. Barnes has been a continued growing steal, however finally this next year he might be gone if we don't sign him to a reasonable (won't be too expensive) contract BUT I have ILB always on the back of my mind because even getting a Muma or Chenal or Andersen type in the second or waiting and grabbing a JoJo, Smith or Sanburn type in the 3rd-5th or a Rodriguez or that Kansas kid I like in the 6th/7th there is a shot they push Barnes or take his spot for a year and replace next year. Yes having two crazy elite ILB would be awesome but it isn't something I'm forcing to happen as off ball linebackers especially your number 2 just do not need to be that incredible.

 

[DoURant]

I've really liked Burks through this process, and if they draft him, I won't be upset, but I start thinking of what is needed on the team...speed at the WR position. Is he mainly a slot guy? I'm leaning toward Dotson as a guy I would like to see us take. He isn't the biggest guy, just shy of 5'11" and 180 lbs, but he's a pretty good route runner, gets separation, has reliable hands, plus he can take over the PR duties. I think he is easily a day one starter on this roster. Then I would add a 3rd or 4th rd pick to fill out the position, unless there is someone they really like that falls in the 2nd Rd. When it comes to trades in this draft, I feel we will stay put at 22, but move up from 28.... or if they stay put at both 1st Rd picks, they will target someone in the 2nd and move up from 53.

 

[gopkrs]

I've really liked Burks through this process, and if they draft him, I won't be upset, but I start thinking of what is needed on the team...speed at the WR position. Is he mainly a slot guy? I'm leaning toward Dotson as a guy I would like to see us take. He isn't the biggest guy, just shy of 5'11" and 180 lbs, but he's a pretty good route runner, gets separation, has reliable hands, plus he can take over the PR duties. I think he is easily a day one starter on this roster. Then I would add a 3rd or 4th rd pick to fill out the position, unless there is someone they really like that falls in the 2nd Rd. When it comes to trades in this draft, I feel we will stay put at 22, but move up from 28.... or if they stay put at both 1st Rd picks, they will target someone in the 2nd and move up from 53.

I like Dotson too. But I want to get two wide-outs within the first 4 picks. And I would not be disappointed if they were both in the first round.

 

[DoURant]

I like Dotson too. But I want to get two wide-outs within the first 4 picks. And I would not be disappointed if they were both in the first round.

I'm open to 2 WR's in the 1st Rd, pending who the 1st one is. If it's somehow Wilson, or Olave, who I feel we only have a chance at either guy by trading up, then I'm good with just 1. If it's Jameson, due to the injury, I'm looking to double up in the 1st at WR. I'm not overly sold on London, as I see long term upside, but not a big impact in year 1. Burks, Dotson or Pickens, are guys I like, but feel their value is more associated with the 28th pick or trading up from that position to draft around 25 or 26. I still feel OL, DL, EDGE, and Safety need to be addressed early, and I don't want to neglect them, just to reach on the WR position at pick #22 or #28. I'm a firm believer in following your board and the tiers you have players ranked. Taking the BPA on your board, if a position of need isn't in the tier you are working, is the best way to go vs. reaching/over drafting. The other option, of course, is you trade back if possible.

 

[gopkrs]

I'm a firm believer in following your board and the tiers you have players ranked. Taking the BPA on your board, if a position of need isn't in the tier you are working, is the best way to go vs. reaching/over drafting. The other option, of course, is you trade back if possible.

I like your choice of wide receivers. There may very well be better players when we pick. I just have this hankering for two wide receivers. If we could get two of the 4 you mentioned with both 1st round picks...I would love it. I have visions of a really potent offense with that scenario. And maybe for at least 4 or 5 years. I think these guys would make catches even if they are rookies and even if Pickens/Jameson have to start a little late. I didn't really understand your comment about 28 and then 25 or 26. You can't be that exact.

 

[DoURant]

I didn't really understand your comment about 28 and then 25 or 26. You can't be that exact.

What I mean by that is I like them guys at #28, but feel there is the possibility that they may go just before #28, and we may need to move up to 25 or 26 in order to get them with our 2nd 1st round pick.

 

[wist43]

What I mean by that is I like them guys at #28, but feel there is the possibility that they may go just before #28, and we may need to move up to 25 or 26 in order to get them with our 2nd 1st round pick.

I don't think trading up makes sense - there are simply too many players at positions of need for the packers to waste draft capital moving up.

We need help in a lot of places. WR, OT, DT, Edge, and S.

DT is thin, but there are a lot of WR's, OT's, Edge, and S's in that 25-59 range.

Hill, Brisker, Pitre (S)
Smith, Penning, Johnson, Green, Mitchell (OT)
Moore, Pickens, Pierce, Tolbert, Jones (WR)
Ebekiete, Williams, Ojabo (Edge)

I wouldn't be surprised if they went with Tyler Smith with 22 or 28.

 

[PikeBadger]

Ditto for me...I don't feel quite as confident in Leo Chenal, but if the Packers got him late 2nd round, I'd be happy. Unless, they hadn't addressed WR of course.

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I agree. Chenal IS a football player and possesses skills and abilities imo to be used in a variety of ways to mess up offensive plays.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree. Chenal IS a football player and possesses skills and abilities imo to be used in a variety of ways to mess up offensive plays.

Yup. While I think he would be what I call a "luxury pick" for the Packers, I think if he excelled at the Pro Level as much as he did at the UW, the Packers interior LB's would be a force like we haven't seen in a long time. Imagine a defensive front 7 of Wyatt or Leal, Clark and Reed on the line, with Smith, Campbell, Chenal and Gary behind them. Couple that with our secondary and we are talking about a defense that might be really good.

I've talked myself into the perfect draft scenario. Grab 2 WR's, iDL and OLB with the first 4 picks.

 

[tynimiller]

Yup. While I think he would be what I call a "luxury pick" for the Packers, I think if he excelled at the Pro Level as much as he did at the UW, the Packers interior LB's would be a force like we haven't seen in a long time. Imagine a defensive front 7 of Wyatt or Leal, Clark and Reed on the line, with Smith, Campbell, Chenal and Gary behind them. Couple that with our secondary and we are talking about a defense that might be really good.

I've talked myself into the perfect draft scenario. Grab 2 WR's, iDL and OLB with the first 4 picks.

Yeah ILB is one of those positional spots where a starter isn't necessarily a must or arguably a need, however it is one of those savvy ways you could upgrade the defense in a special way. I'm a Barnes fan, LOVE the guy and wanted us to draft him even on Day 3 and was ecstatic when we got him as an UDFA - he has been the "captain" of our defense a lot in his years here despite covid/weird years and progressed and I actually expect another growth year out of him - however if you can grab a Chenal, or an Andersen or a Brandon Smith justifiably with a pick at some point our passing situational defense packages could be massively upgraded. Against big offensive fronts and teams that run big TE groups Barnes has proven more than capable to cover but its those small packaged offenses where a slightly more gifted in speed and agility LBs could help a TON.

I liken that scenario to our Guard play as well while Jenkins is out. Runyan has progressed and seems worthy of being there, Newman struggled but also proved to be worthy of a starter in the league potentially - but neither might be able to hold their starting role should a legit challenger be brought in.

 

[PikeBadger]

Yup. While I think he would be what I call a "luxury pick" for the Packers, I think if he excelled at the Pro Level as much as he did at the UW, the Packers interior LB's would be a force like we haven't seen in a long time. Imagine a defensive front 7 of Wyatt or Leal, Clark and Reed on the line, with Smith, Campbell, Chenal and Gary behind them. Couple that with our secondary and we are talking about a defense that might be really good.

I've talked myself into the perfect draft scenario. Grab 2 WR's, iDL and OLB with the first 4 picks.

My perfect draft scenario would be Safety, DL, ILB/Edge and WR/TE with the first 4 picks.

 

[tynimiller]

My perfect draft scenario would be Safety, DL, ILB/Edge and WR/TE with the first 4 picks.

Is it bad the evil Ty on my left shoulder hopes it is all defensive players until Day 3 just to watch the chaotic firestorm this would cause within the ranks of fans LOL

 

[PikeBadger]

Is it bad the evil Ty on my left shoulder hopes it is all defensive players until Day 3 just to watch the chaotic firestorm this would cause within the ranks of fans LOL

No it's not. I had the exact same thought.

 

[OldSchool101]

You conveniently forgot to mention the dropping from 28 to 33 part.

No sir i didn’t.
It was in my original post!



Look!

At Jags #33, we’d get the bonus, a first selection of Day 3 (#106). This is the ideal one because we get the night to ponder everyone left after BOTH Day 1 and Day 2

A round and round and round we go.. who we draft … nobody knows!

PS. Did you create Charlie Brown? Love me some Snoopy