Which TE will catch the most passes for us this season?

[I_am_smoked_cheddar]

A super breakout TE would be super.

 

[ivo610]

If no speculation is allowed then the whole forum comes to an end quickly. I hit some and miss on many more. That is the fun of it, discussing your speculative views.

That is why I don't understand the folks who always say you can't judge a draft for 3 years. You know why there are many times fewer draft analysis of 3 year old drafts out there? Because everyone has it figured out by then. Old news. Give me someone willing to stick there repuutation on the line with bold predictions. Far more interesting and reqmuch more football knowledge.

making predictions before camp starts is different than waiting 3 years to make a prediction. Wait 3 months, otherwise you are just guessing based on hype from draft "experts" and espn personalities.

jumping the gun and not waiting 3 months might be fun for you though, so each their own

 

[ivo610]

As someone who watches the draft carefully, that comment is pretty offensive. Guessing implies that there is no predictability, which there is. Also, to assume that everybody listens to what "ESPN personalities" have to say and make all of their decisions based on that is just faulty. I make up my own mind on players. I watch at least 10 minutes of video of every player I can find for probably 1000 players every year. That's a lot of man hours that goes into my decision making process, and I don't agree that I get nothing out of all of that hard work.

wait, youre offended by that? Where did I say you got nothing out of your "hard work"?

Whats the difference between predicting things end of draft and precamp? Nothing. No new information has come out. We havent seen the 2nd rd pick bomb in camp yet and we havent seen that 7th rounder shine. But I guess to some waiting those couple months after the draft until camp starts is too much! Dont let that ruin your fun, hell, why dont we start making predictions about next season too? lol

 

[AmishMafia]

wait, youre offended by that? Where did I say you got nothing out of your "hard work"?

Whats the difference between predicting things end of draft and precamp? Nothing. No new information has come out. We havent seen the 2nd rd pick bomb in camp yet and we havent seen that 7th rounder shine. But I guess to some waiting those couple months after the draft until camp starts is too much! Dont let that ruin your fun, hell, why dont we start making predictions about next season too? lol

Why not?

2015 - Packers 34 Chiefs 18 in Superbowl


.

 

[AmishMafia]

As someone who watches the draft carefully, that comment is pretty offensive. Guessing implies that there is no predictability, which there is. Also, to assume that everybody listens to what "ESPN personalities" have to say and make all of their decisions based on that is just faulty. I make up my own mind on players. I watch at least 10 minutes of video of every player I can find for probably 1000 players every year. That's a lot of man hours that goes into my decision making process, and I don't agree that I get nothing out of all of that hard work.

If you can't tell at all if a player will succeed or not, teams would not have scouting departments. Hell, they wouldn't have a draft and just randomly assign players to teams.

Although you can never be certain, you can apply your football and personal knowledge and determine a risk to benefit ratio for every player coming out.

 

[TJV]

I watch at least 10 minutes of video of every player I can find for probably 1000 players every year.

This really makes the point. Compare this amount of time to the time spent by NFL scouts and members of the personnel staff - some work full time doing college player evaluations - and coaching staffs of an NFL team on the draft. Not only in watching video, but attending practices and games, talking to coaches, and talking to the players themselves. Even so busts early in round one and UDFAs making good are well known. I saw part of a review of Lombardi’s last season in Green Bay yesterday on the NFL channel. (I think it was) Dave Robinson was talking about the addition of Chuck Mercein (a mid-season pickup who was playing for a semi-pro team at the time). Robinson said ‘you can tell me how tall he is and how much he weighs and you can tell me how fast he runs the 40, but ‘you can’t measure his heart’. That’s the essence of the unpredictability of the draft IMO. That’s why there’s value in talking face-to-face with players and having contacts at colleges that will tell you the truth about how players interact with their coaches and teammates, and what kind of people they are. Even with all that time and effort, IMO the draft is a well-informed guessing game. (If you don’t think so, go back to any draft two years and older and re-do it based on NFL performance.) Of course it’s much more of a guessing game for an amateur only spending 10 minutes of video per prospect.

Of course I’m not saying you shouldn’t have fun doing it –that’d be silly. But thinking any amateur gets anywhere close to the amount of information the pros have on a potential draftee is too.

 

[TJV]

Well yes, I am an amateur. There's nothing wrong with that. It doesn't make everything I say wrong and everything a team says right.

I never posted anything close to that.

I think you make a gave mistake, though, and that's by assuming I only watch players for 10-minutes a piece and that's my draft preparation.

I assume you meant a “grave” mistake - if so, it can’t be a grave mistake because it concerns you “preparing” for the draft. In the grand scheme of things that makes no difference whatever. And even in the small scheme of Packer fandom, it's certainly nothing grave. Perhaps you should save the term “grave mistake” for something ... grave. BTW, I just quoted what you posted and wrote, “ Compare this amount of time to…”

I'm also not scared to disagree with TT like some people are.

Well, I take everything back then: You are so brave you’ll anonymously criticize a public figure on an internet board?! I believe you're the only one!

(BTW, you didn’t refute a single point I made in that post.)

 

[ivo610]

When you tell somebody that works hard to form their own opinion that their opinion is based on nothing more than ESPN personalities, yes, that is offensive. As for what happens between draft's end and camp's start, there is UDFA, which is a pretty big deal. Injuries happen, arrests happen, suspensions happen, etc. Finally, right after the draft people are emotional and reacting to the draft. Right before camp's start, people have had time to analyze what we did in the draft and UDFA.

So that's my response, but really your whole comment on it's basis is faulty. You're also setting it up to be where people give all of their thoughts right when the draft ends. That's really not the case. People give some thoughts at draft's end, usually focusing on the individual players, value, etc., and then they tend to give more team-oriented comments closer to camp. That's exactly what we saw with this thread. It's not focusing on Richard Rodgers and what kind of value he is and all of that typical kind of draft's end stuff. It's focusing on the TE group as a whole and how they will effect the team.

If you don't like to get involved in these types of conversations then don't, but don't go telling others not to. And just because you may be influenced by ESPN personalities, that doesn't mean all of us make our opinions that way.

thus the reason I said "each their own".

You are getting upset over things I didnt say and not reading the entire post where I point out the opposite of what you are complaining about.

I think you are just looking for drama where there isnt any tbh.

 

[AmishMafia]

This really makes the point. Compare this amount of time to the time spent by NFL scouts and members of the personnel staff - some work full time doing college player evaluations - and coaching staffs of an NFL team on the draft. Not only in watching video, but attending practices and games, talking to coaches, and talking to the players themselves. Even so busts early in round one and UDFAs making good are well known. I saw part of a review of Lombardi’s last season in Green Bay yesterday on the NFL channel. (I think it was) Dave Robinson was talking about the addition of Chuck Mercein (a mid-season pickup who was playing for a semi-pro team at the time). Robinson said ‘you can tell me how tall he is and how much he weighs and you can tell me how fast he runs the 40, but ‘you can’t measure his heart’. That’s the essence of the unpredictability of the draft IMO. That’s why there’s value in talking face-to-face with players and having contacts at colleges that will tell you the truth about how players interact with their coaches and teammates, and what kind of people they are. Even with all that time and effort, IMO the draft is a well-informed guessing game. (If you don’t think so, go back to any draft two years and older and re-do it based on NFL performance.) Of course it’s much more of a guessing game for an amateur only spending 10 minutes of video per prospect.

Of course I’m not saying you shouldn’t have fun doing it –that’d be silly. But thinking any amateur gets anywhere close to the amount of information the pros have on a potential draftee is too.

It is always a projection with risk reward attached to every pick.

A great poker player does not win every hand. A great poker player knows which hands have the most chance of winning and those are the hands he invests in. Warren Buffet doesn't hit on every stock, but he analyzes and picks a few that have the most potential reward relative to the risk.

A GM doesn't hit on every pick. But he does his best and in the long run, if you are good, you assemble a roster with more talent than the others.

Only a few players each year are NFL ready in college. Most you hope will progress and be able to play in the big league. Clowney this year is a great example. I don't think he is going to make it, I think he will bust. I don't get the sense he loves football enough to succeed. But would I draft him No. 1 overall? HELL YES! The guy is unbelievable. If he does succeed, you have a first ballot HOF. He can be that good. Although the odds are against him, the upside only comes around once a decade or so. So you take the plunge and hope it clicks for him. If he fails, it doesn't mean you failed as a GM. If Buffet misses on a stock, it doesn't mean he errored. There are too many variables - nothing is a sure thing. So you balance as best you can - risk vrs reward and hope for the best.

 

[PikeBadger]

Well yes, I am an amateur. There's nothing wrong with that. It doesn't make everything I say wrong and everything a team says right. If you think it does, just look at the decision to draft Justin Harrell. Nobody is debating with you that someone like me doesn't put in as much time as someone like TT or our scouting department. By the way, guys like Mel Kiper are professionals as well. That's how they make their livelihood.

I think you make a gave mistake, though, and that's by assuming I only watch players for 10-minutes a piece and that's my draft preparation. It's not. Some players I watch more. Some players I watch interviews. I look at stats and measurables. I watch the Combine. I pay attention to the Pro Days. I read up on the character of players. I watch college football. There is actually quite a bit of access to this kind of stuff.

Really, though, you can talk about my draft preparation all you want, but in the end, it comes down to picks. I already gave my last draft's accuracy. I played GM and picked a player for every Packer pick. Every player went in the same round that I picked them except two, one who went one round higher than I had predicted and one who went one round lower.

I'm also not scared to disagree with TT like some people are. For instance, I think Thornton is a bust. TT screwed up with that pick IMO, and time will tell. Does that mean I put in more time than TT in the draft? No. Does it mean I am automatically wrong in regards to the draft or hold no credibility? No. I could be right and have less draft preparation.

EDIT: About the guessing game part, I agree that drafting players is a very difficult thing to do. And if you want to call it a well-informed guessing game, that's fine. So I guess (some might say predict, but we can use guess if you want), at the draft based off data, video, etc. The term "guess" really doesn't take credibility away from what people like TT, Mel Kiper, or even people like me do. It's a much different type of "guessing" than blindly picking. You are basically using the term guess because there is not 100% certainty, which I agree that there is not.

DH, you clearly put in an incredible amount of time on the draft so I've got a few questions for you:

1. How do you choose which player videos to watch?
2. Do you set up your own ranked player draft board?
3. How do you weigh their tape, combine, pro day, injury history?
4. Do you publish your work?
5. Is the 2015 draft looking to be an average, good or bad draft in total?

 

[TJV]

As to Jack, "grave" referred to the critical error in your logic bringing you to a faulty conclusion, not the impact that critical error has on the NFL. As to not countering anything you said, I actually did. It's been classic you since I got here for saying people don't respond to your points when they actually do. So what exactly is your big point? NFL people spend more time than amateurs? Okay, I agree. What's the big deal? What are you trying to prove?

hobbyist, what exactly was the “critical” error in my logic? And what was my “faulty conclusion”? Please be specific.

You posted you think my “grave” mistake was “assuming (you) only watch players for 10-minutes a piece and that's (your) draft preparation.” In what universe is any opinion of your “draft preparation” important enough to be in any way categorized as “grave”? (BTW that has nothing to do with logic.)