VERY Early Stab At Predicting the 2021 53 Man Roster

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm still hoping Sternberger plays well and can make the team. Definitely have my doubts now though. Those short passes in the flat to him seems pretty worthless. Not exactly his strength so far. He should be working the middle imo.

Short of an injury to another TE or a 100+ plus yard game against Buffalo and looking like the second coming of Travis Kelce, I have a feeling the Packers mind is pretty much made up on Sternberger. They have had him around long enough to know what he is or isn't capable of. Even a solid preseason game may not be enough for him. Like I said in a previous post, if they don't have to put him on the 53 due to his 2 game suspension, which I don't thing they do, they may keep him around for those 2 weeks and if any of the TE's get injured, he gets their spot.

 

[tynimiller]

The suspension is what might keep him in GB for PS too...he is 100% a guy I'd be trying to find a late round pick suitor for...even a swap of a 7th for their 6th type deal - because again I'm a get anything type guy.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The suspension is what might keep him in GB for PS too...he is 100% a guy I'd be trying to find a late round pick suitor for...even a swap of a 7th for their 6th type deal - because again I'm a get anything type guy.

I get that desire to get something for him, but if that is the case, the Packers should be shopping him right now or after week 2. During final cutdowns the market is flooded with guys and trying to convince another team that Sternberger is worth a late round pick won't be easy.

But yes, the suspension is what might keep him in GB. The other scenario is another team loses a TE or 2 to injury in Week 1 or 2 and the Packers have found their trade partner.

 

[Mondio]

Sternberger has shown me so little, and with the guys ahead of him, I'd give that last spot to Dafney no question.

I just don't see much trade value in him. Sure if you can get some, get it. I just don't think there's much there at all, if any.

 

[tynimiller]

He holds a higher upside IMO than Hollman had. All depends if you can find suitor though of course. I think his suspension may just get him back in GB on the PS as he would have one year eligible there no with the new requirements?

 

[OldSchool101]

Generally again only disagree with a couple things.
1.) WR: a.) I hope the depth chart does not shake out exactly that way, as I don't think Cobb is or ever has been a #2. b.) I think EQSTB makes it possibly over Funchess

In the 5 complete seasons (I’m counting complete seasons where he either suited or played in at least 15 contests ~1) in years 2012,2014,2015,2017,2019; Randall Cobb AVERAGED 910.2 yards

To give you a large sample size where that measures up? I took the top placing leaguewide Receivers including ALL RB/TE/WR since 2012 (Cobbs first full season). 910.2 yards ranked #28 overall in each of those reasonably complete seasons.
Had I excluded TE, RB McAffrey etc.. Cobb was ranked (rough estimate) the 26th best WR in all 5 of those seasons. Taking into consideration there are 32 teams with #1 Wideouts? When healthy, Cobb not only bested the vast majority of #2’s out there. In each of Cobbs “healthy” seasons? On average he beat out SEVEN TEAMS #1’s WR’s in each full season.

That being said, my best guess is there’s not more than 4-5 separate #2 WR’s league wide definitively performing at a higher level. Factoring in injuries and such (not plucking full seasons) Cobb is likely a middle to top #2 WR (top 40 or 50 overall) over those 9 seasons. Entrenched squarely as a #2.

Cobbs production historically hinges on his ability to stay on the field. As long as he plays at least 13+ games this season he’s going to produce like a #2. Further recent evidence id submit was he showed formidable in Dallas, much better than his predecessor Beasley. But I hope our opponent doesn’t know that or that they similarly underestimate him.

 

[Krabs]

I think he may be punting for his job in Buffalo. While the guy has a good leg, his missed kicks are too frequent and his net punting average was a dismal 37 yds last season, which was 28th in the league.

I am not going to judge the special teams until the regular season, because I am sure it is hell for the Special teams coach to try and mix in 40 or so guys on special teams. However, since Drayton was already the assistant ST coach under fired Shawn Mennenga, I hope he is on a very short leash.

I don't think Scott is punting for his job. I think he has won it already. One has to keep in mind how much him and Crosby have worked together and the importance of the snapper to holder to kicker exchange. Cut Scott for a guy that has never held for Crosby before might result in some issues kicking field goals going forward. I think he makes the team and figures it out.

 

[OldSchool101]

I don't think Scott is punting for his job. I think he has won it already. One has to keep in mind how much him and Crosby have worked together and the importance of the snapper to holder to kicker exchange. Cut Scott for a guy that has never held for Crosby before might result in some issues kicking field goals going forward. I think he makes the team and figures it out.

I like the pressure it puts on Scott. He’s the incumbent so it makes sense it’s his to lose. But there’s no motivation better than competition for your job. Having someone chomping at your heals tends to light a fire under a young Punter

 

[Mondio]

He holds a higher upside IMO than Hollman had. All depends if you can find suitor though of course. I think his suspension may just get him back in GB on the PS as he would have one year eligible there no with the new requirements?

kind of, but not really. Hollman looks like he can fill a dimeback position at least adequately. Every team needs those, in multiples actually.

I'd say TE is a fairly important position too, but there are the good ones and then the guys. Sternberger has done nothing to look like one of the "good ones" and if you're just one of the guys at the TE position, there are lots of them and teams don't need many of them. I wouldn't trade for it.

 

[Schultz]

Old School- I come up with 15 teams that Cobb would not be the #2 receiver on.
KC-TN-MIA-CLV-CIN-PIT-LAR-SF-SEA-CAR-TB-WSH-DAL-MN-GB.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Old School- I come up with 15 teams that Cobb would not be the #2 receiver on.
KC-TN-MIA-CLV-CIN-PIT-LAR-SF-SEA-CAR-TB-WSH-DAL-MN-GB.

Beats the last 2 seasons when quite a few of the Packer WR's wouldn't have even made the final 53 on another team.

I think with the addition of Cobb and Amari, along with another season of experience for MVS, Lazard and probably Taylor, this is the strongest group of WR's we have had in several years.

 

[OldSchool101]

Old School- I come up with 15 teams that Cobb would not be the #2 receiver on.
KC-TN-MIA-CLV-CIN-PIT-LAR-SF-SEA-CAR-TB-WSH-DAL-MN-GB.

Interesting. There are 32 teams.
By deduction thats 17 teams Cobb would be considered a #2 given that information

The comment I was responding to was that Cobb has “never” been considered a #2 level WR. I went on to show 5 separate seasons (ample sample size) that he was definitely a #2 producer. I used him against his WR peers production in all 5 seasons.

My argument was never that he’s the best #2 in the league or even definitively that he’s OUR #2 WR.

I’ve simply dispelled the notion that he’s never been more than #4-#5 type in the past. That was totally an unfounded statement.

 

[Schultz]

I was just backing you up that he was a #2.5 receiver going into this year. If he regresses and/or some of the rookies have quality years he may only be a #2.75.

 

[Don Barclay]

I'm going off on an OL tangent (which is typical), as I think about what our starting OL might look like game 1. We are YOUNG, especially with Bakh (presumably) out at the start of the season. I was curious to know just how green we might be, so I put together the following comparison of our Game 1 OL starters last year vs. this, in terms of age/starts/NFL time served. The 2020 stats are, I think, all correct prior to the start of the *2020* season -- i.e., this is pretty much apples-to-apples.

Obv, the 2021 numbers might come up a hair if Patrick is at guard in place of Runyan or Newman -- but not much. To be clear, I love that we're getting young, and I have real faith in what Gute/Stenavich are doing, but man that interior line is green...we might see some ragged play, especially early on.

Starting O line, game 1, 2020 season:

Bakhtiari: 28 yo, 106 career starts (7 total years in NFL prior to 2020)
Taylor: 30, 49 starts (7 years in NFL)
Linsley: 29, 86 starts (6 years in NFL)
Jenkins: 24, 14 starts (1 year in NFL)
Wagner: 30, 87 starts (7 years in NFL)

Avg age: 28.2 yo
Avg career starts: 68.4
Avg experience: 5.6 total years in NFL


Potential starting O line in 2021 season:

Jenkins: 25 yo, 30 career starts (2 total years in NFL prior to 2021)
Runyan: 24, 0 starts (1 year in NFL)
Myers: 23, 0 starts (0 years in NFL)
Newman: 24, 0 starts (0 years in NFL)
Turner: 29, 55 starts (7 years in NFL)


Avg age: 25 yo
Avg career starts: 17
Avg experience: 2 total years in NFL

 

[Don Barclay]

Uh, I guess if this should go elsewhere, mods please feel free to move or chastise -- I;m not really making a prediction, just an observation

 

[Krabs]

I'm going off on an OL tangent (which is typical), as I think about what our starting OL might look like game 1. We are YOUNG, especially with Bakh (presumably) out at the start of the season. I was curious to know just how green we might be, so I put together the following comparison of our Game 1 OL starters last year vs. this, in terms of age/starts/NFL time served. The 2020 stats are, I think, all correct prior to the start of the *2020* season -- i.e., this is pretty much apples-to-apples.

Obv, the 2021 numbers might come up a hair if Patrick is at guard in place of Runyan or Newman -- but not much. To be clear, I love that we're getting young, and I have real faith in what Gute/Stenavich are doing, but man that interior line is green...we might see some ragged play, especially early on.

Starting O line, game 1, 2020 season:

Bakhtiari: 28 yo, 106 career starts (7 total years in NFL prior to 2020)
Taylor: 30, 49 starts (7 years in NFL)
Linsley: 29, 86 starts (6 years in NFL)
Jenkins: 24, 14 starts (1 year in NFL)
Wagner: 30, 87 starts (7 years in NFL)

Avg age: 28.2 yo
Avg career starts: 68.4
Avg experience: 5.6 total years in NFL


Potential starting O line in 2021 season:

Jenkins: 25 yo, 30 career starts (2 total years in NFL prior to 2021)
Runyan: 24, 0 starts (1 year in NFL)
Myers: 23, 0 starts (0 years in NFL)
Newman: 24, 0 starts (0 years in NFL)
Turner: 29, 55 starts (7 years in NFL)


Avg age: 25 yo
Avg career starts: 17
Avg experience: 2 total years in NFL

I still feel good about the offensive line.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I still feel good about the offensive line.

So long as whoever starts at RT is better than Wagner. Man oh man he was painful to watch in that nfccg.

 

[tynimiller]

Our entire OL was terrible that day, was so frustrating watching. OL is stronger this year than last for certain!!!

 

[Don Barclay]

Our entire OL was terrible that day, was so frustrating watching. OL is stronger this year than last for certain!!!

I agree with your optimism for sure, as far as the long-arc shape of the season - but I'm feeling nervous about the start for that interior. If I'm Dennis Allen, I'm throwing kitchen-sink looks at the young dudes across from the Saints D front in week 1. Hope they handle it!

 

[lambeaulambo]

I agree with your optimism for sure, as far as the long-arc shape of the season - but I'm feeling nervous about the start for that interior. If I'm Dennis Allen, I'm throwing kitchen-sink looks at the young dudes across from the Saints D front in week 1. Hope they handle it!

The last time the pack was young on the OL they won the Super Bowl...Verba, Timmerman etc

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm going off on an OL tangent

Spoken like a Don Barclay

Avg age: 25 yo
Avg career starts: 17
Avg experience: 2 total years in NFL

Nice information.
It’s maybe an optimistic sided opinion. But one could say this is a positive thing (more mid-long term). If we have 2 first year players beating out veterans ? (upgrades). Think of how strong this OL will be in a year or two and at a fraction the cost.
I’ll also add that a well-seasoned, premier Center from a top tier Div1 school doesn’t worry me in the least. Look at how quickly Linsley adapted. He got thrown to the wolves @ Seattle in his rookie season and we never looked back. Rookie Meyers is every bit as good as Rookie Linsley imo

 

[tynimiller]

I concur Myers appears as good as Corey was as a rookie, the question is will he become as good in future. Newman is showing stud tendencies not typical of a rookie as well

 

[Don Barclay]

Spoken like a Don Barclay

My username isn't an accident! It's a tribute to the grunts.

 

[tynimiller]

Well I posted before the last game the following, I’m gonna insert what I feel it will wash out at….not necessarily what I want but what I think:

So entering the final pre-season this is how I see the current status of the roster:

QB
Locks - Rodgers and Love (2)
Spot(s) Available: Maybe 1 - Benkert
*With Rodgers age and Love inexperience I still think they keep three and Benkert is on.

RB
Locks - Jones, Dillon, Hill (3)
Spot(s) Available: I say none (Taylor or Dexter or both end up on our PS)
*nothing changed for me, we keep 3 (which puts us to 6 total)

WR
Locks - Adams, Cobb, Lazard, MVS, Rodgers (5)
Spot(s) Available: 1 IMO - I think it is between Taylor and Begelton atm.
*This is a tough call for that 6th, I think honestly the ability to hide Begelton easier than Taylor on PS makes that the way they go. Begelton showed a lot and I think there is a returner there in him too. Keep 6 (12)

TEs
Locks - Lewis, Tonyan, Deguara (3)
Spot(s) Available: 1 maybe....but my gut says we keep 3 (Daffney goes PS)
*This offense I’ll say we keep 4 with Daffney in. (16)

OL
Locks - Jenkins, Myers, Turner, Patrick, Runyon, Newman, Kelly (7) Bahk if they don't designate him something else (8)
Spot(s) Available: I feel they keep 9 so either 1 or 2 spots left between Braden, Nijiman, Van Lanen. Kelly could get bumped off if they feel shelf is higher on these - Kelly doesn't cost us much at all if cut.
*If Bahk is placed on the 53 initially I think Nijiman gets nod and we pray Van Lanen can clear waivers for PS. So 9 (25)

DLs
Locks - Clark, Keke, Lowry, Slaton (4)
Spots Available: 1 and I think between Heflin and Lancaster or someone that isn't even on the team atm *I'm beginning to think Lancaster and they hope they can hide Heflin on PS.
*I am calling Heflin and Lancaster both make it so we keep 6 (31)


ILBs
Locks - Barnes, Campbell, Burks (3)
Spot(s) Available: 1 more spot between Summers and McDuffie IMO
*Mcduffie makes it for sure. I sense we keep 4 atm. (35)

OLBs
Locks - Smith, Smith, Gary (3)
Spot(s) Available: I think 2 more with Garvin and Rivers IMO in lead
*I think we keep 5 till more is known and they’re Garvin and Rivers (40)

CBs
Locks - Jaire, King, Stokes, Sullivan, SJC (5)
Spot(s) Available: 1 more and I think Ento gets it.
Six I say with Ento grabbing it (46)

S
Locks - Amos, Savage, Scott, Black (4)
Spot(s) Available: 1 and my bet is Uphoff (ST beast)
*I like uphoff and feel he makes it 5 (51)

Special Teams Locks ATM - Crosby, Scott, Bradley (3)
*same….(54)

Clearly that is one too many, with Rivers, Uphoff, Lancaster, Daffney, Benkert being the three I feel are the most expendable and it will all come down to which position group they feel best about.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Clearly that is one too many, with Rivers, Uphoff, Lancaster, Daffney, Benkert being the three I feel are the most expendable and it will all come down to which position group they feel best about.

I think Benkert is the guy that won't be on the initial 53. I just don't see another team wanting to use a roster spot for him.

While I haven't really thought about it much, right now I think the bigger question is what guys will be put on the PS. One guy I think played himself out of football is Dexter Williams. Taylor is a keeper. I believe they give ESB and Begelton another shot on the PS. The big move I would be thinking about if I were the Packers is Sternberger. While they wouldn't have to cut him until after week 2, I might be tempted to release him during the "big release" and he might clear waivers and be PS eligible. Whereas, if they release him in 4 weeks, I think he gets snatched up.