Value of that 4th round HaHa pick

[Dblbogey]

The following were among the 4th round selections by the packers in the past 11 drafts:

Mike Daniels
Bahktiari
Josh Sitton
T.J. Lang
Blake Martinez
Jamaal Williams
Dean Lowry
J.C. Tretter
Jake Ryan
J'Mon Moore

This pick could very well be of value.

 

[thequick12]

Some people think haha is a good player, I don't. I also don't think he was good for the team. He was going to leave in free agency so getting a 4th is a good value. And the pick is much more valuable than Dix would have been going forward as he's gonna demand a contract worth way more than I'd be willing to pay him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The following were among the 4th round selections by the packers in the past 11 drafts:

Mike Daniels
Bahktiari
Josh Sitton
T.J. Lang
Blake Martinez
Jamaal Williams
Dean Lowry
J.C. Tretter
Jake Ryan
J'Mon Moore

This pick could very well be of value.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I noticed you conveniently left out:

• Vince Biegel
• Carl Bradford
• Jerron McMillian
• Quinn Johnson
• Jeremy Thompson

So yes, a 4th rounder can net you a decent player, but it can come up empty too.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Whether the pick works out or not, there is the matter of $3 mil cap savings in the bank which pays that 4th. rounder his entire rookie contract.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Some people think haha is a good player, I don't. I also don't think he was good for the team. He was going to leave in free agency so getting a 4th is a good value. And the pick is much more valuable than Dix would have been going forward as he's gonna demand a contract worth way more than I'd be willing to pay him.

I'm afraid that fans who have the impression that Clinton-Dix wasn't any good will soon realize he performed at a higher level than any of them realized.

 

[thequick12]

I'm afraid that fans who have the impression that Clinton-Dix wasn't any good will soon realize he performed at a higher level than any of them realized.

Think you're missing the point he didn't seem to be a good teammate. Obviously I don't know the play calls but he seemed to be a selfish player. Yes he has the most ints since 2016 for a safety with 11 but nearly all of those picks were on terrible over or underthrows by the qb. Meaning he was beaten and only bailed out by the bad throw. You can say right place at right time but that's not a accurrate representation. As he was in fact in the wrong place and got lucky with the poor throw. The one pick he had that was a break on the ball pick was at Washington this season. And honestly on that one if you watch it I don't think he was even going for the ball he was playing the man not the ball and the ball just happens to hit him in the stomach. I guess the one good thing was he did catch the ball. Whether it's tramon, Jackson, breeland or Greene that takes his spot at free safety I do not think we will see a noticible drop off in play in fact I think the defense may get better as they play more as a team. Now what needs to happen as well is Josh Jones needs to be the nitro lb over Jermaine Whitehead. If you're gonna play a safety at lb at least play the dude with huge play making upside

 

[Patriotplayer90]

I'm afraid that fans who have the impression that Clinton-Dix wasn't any good will soon realize he performed at a higher level than any of them realized.

This. I do not understand the move, at all. Let him finish out the year, sign elsewhere, and get a comp pick. Rodgers is 35, they should have done all of this table pounding and culture changing years ago. What a mess, and what a waste.

 

[RepStar15]

I am honestly pretty indifferent towards this trade. There are pros and cons. We really cannot make any decisions on it, until we evaluate the safety play from the first 8 games vs. the safety play from the last 8 games. If Tramon Williams going back to safety to allow Alexander, King, Breeland and Jackson to shine at their natural positions, works, its a genius trade. If it does not, then a 4th rounder for a legitimate chance at a playoff run may not be worth it regardless if we intended to sign HHCD or not. Just too soon to tell to pass analysis.

 

[Dantés]

Tramon Williams was taking snaps at safety yesterday. It would seem that's going to be a big part of the solution.

It's interesting-- the biggest critique one could make about the idea is that Williams isn't going to be a big hitter or physical presence. But then again, Clinton-Dix has been a dreadful tackler this season. It will be interesting to watch play out.

 

[elcid]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if HHCD was to walk in free agency coming off season, wouldn't we likely get a compensatory pick of at least a 4th rounder anyway? I would've rather kept him then, given our safety play has been miserable this season.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if HHCD was to walk in free agency coming off season, wouldn't we likely get a compensatory pick of at least a 4th rounder anyway? I would've rather kept him then, given our safety play has been miserable this season.

Not if we sign a FA(s) to an equal or higher value contracts. Not sure of the exact formula, but comp picks are distributed based on what you lose vs what you gain. We gained most years because we didn’t sign many high dollar FA’s and lost some. I think this is a sign we will be much more active in the offseason.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if HHCD was to walk in free agency coming off season, wouldn't we likely get a compensatory pick of at least a 4th rounder anyway? I would've rather kept him then, given our safety play has been miserable this season.

Compensatory picks are never a guarantee. There is a "secret unpublished formula" to determine them, but they hinge mainly on the value of the qualified FA's you sign and the value of your own qualified guys that you let go (not resigned) and are signed by another team.

For instance, the Packers will have no compensatory picks in the 2019 draft, because they signed more FA's of value than they lost last year.

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

Side Note: Since the process of awarding compensatory picks began in 1994, the Packers have gained 42 picks, the second most in the NFL.

 

[Dantés]

Correct me if I am wrong, but if HHCD was to walk in free agency coming off season, wouldn't we likely get a compensatory pick of at least a 4th rounder anyway? I would've rather kept him then, given our safety play has been miserable this season.

Not necessarily. I'm just going to paste in my reply from the other Haha thread.

I feel like a broken record this afternoon, but that is really oversimplifying things.

1) To get a compensatory pick that's better than the 15th-21st pick in the 4th round, the Packers would have to get a pick in the 3rd. The guy who leaves has to get a really big contract to merit a 3rd round pick. In this last draft, there were four handed out.

Arizona got one because Calais Campbell got 4/60/30
Houston got one because A.J. Bouye got 5/67.5/26
Denver got one because Russell Okung got 4/53/25
Cincinnati got one because Kevin Zeitler got 5/60/31.5

So the average of the four top contracts that received 3rd round picks comes in at 13.4M. Clinton-Dix is more likely getting a deal in the 8-10M range. So he would probably bring a 4th, maybe a 5th if the market for safeties stays cold, in 2020, if...

2) To get a strong comp. pick for Haha, Gutekunst would have to stay relatively quiet on the open market. If he were to sign a replacement safety or an edge rusher to similar money, or more, Haha would be cancelled out and they wouldn't be in line for said pick. I thought the whole reason Packers fans were excited about Gute is that he will be more active in free agency.

 

[PackAttack12]

This. I do not understand the move, at all. Let him finish out the year, sign elsewhere, and get a comp pick. Rodgers is 35, they should have done all of this table pounding and culture changing years ago. What a mess, and what a waste.

The part about the comp pick is covered nicely in this post:

Not if we sign a FA(s) to an equal or higher value contracts. Not sure of the exact formula, but comp picks are distributed based on what you lose vs what you gain. We gained most years because we didn’t sign many high dollar FA’s and lost some. I think this is a sign we will be much more active in the offseason.

Gutekunst touched on this in his presser yesterday. He wants to be, and will be more active in free agency. That will effect the comp pick formula.

If Ted Thompson is the GM right now, of course he wouldn't trade HaHa. Because he likely would have gotten that comp pick. But Gutekunst is going to be, as he already has been, a more active/aggressive GM in all areas of team building.

 

[Dantés]

Moving him now means they get an extra pick in 2019 and can sign someone in the offseason without worrying about him affecting their shot at a 4th in 2020. So let's say as a for instance that this route means this offseason they can have the extra 4th and they can sign Adrian Amos to be their FS for the next five years.

Letting him walk after the season means they might get a 4th in 2020, but cannot sign a corresponding player because they would risk losing out on said pick. So you don't sign a FA to replace him and you have to hope that he gets paid enough to warrant a 4th in the following draft.

It's not remotely the same thing. Frankly all the talking heads who immediately said "they could have just gotten a comp pick and it would have been the same thing!" were being really irresponsible.

 

[McKnowledge]

This. I do not understand the move, at all. Let him finish out the year, sign elsewhere, and get a comp pick. Rodgers is 35, they should have done all of this table pounding and culture changing years ago. What a mess, and what a waste.

I agree with the sentiment. I disagree it was a waste. True, it would've been the smart play to let him go in free agency and get the comp pick. In my opinion, depending on the contract Clinton-Dix will sign with his future team for next season, plus having a pro bowl on his resume could've net Green Bay a third round comp pick. If he's been such a difficult teammate over the last few seasons, what's two more months?

 

[McKnowledge]

I'm afraid that fans who have the impression that Clinton-Dix wasn't any good will soon realize he performed at a higher level than any of them realized.

Clinton- Dix is a good player, a very good player. He is not an impact player. I think getting drafted in the first round, and from an Alabama championship defense really elevated people's expectations of him. He did earn a Pro Bowl. He did make plays. However, I don't think he warranted the money he [probably expected from Green Bay. It was move that became available, and the front office pounced on it. I'm kind of indifferent to it.

I kind of want to see Oren Burks get some reps at Safety. When he was drafted, I was thinking he could be Green Bay's version of Kam Chancellor.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yup. Pretty much straight up better to be able to trade a guy than try to count on gaining something from a compensatory pick. As long as you get legit value. For instance, trading Cobb away for a 7th round pick to me would have been nuts, unless all you want is to recoup part of his 2018 salary.

The Packers have 20 players with contracts expiring at the end of the season, will be interesting to see which ones will be brought back. A mix of UFA, RFA and EFRA's.

I see quite a few players on the list that could be a plus on the compensatory side if we don't resign them.

Clay Matthews OLB UFA
Randall Cobb WR UFA
Muhammad Wilkerson DE UFA
Marcedes Lewis TE UFA
Lance Kendricks TE UFA
Byron Bell RT UFA
Davon House CB UFA
Bashaud Breeland CB UFA
Korey Toomer ILB UFA
Jake Ryan ILB UFA
Geronimo Allison WR RFA
Kentrell Brice S RFA
Jermaine Whitehead S ERFA
Justin McCray G ERFA
Tre Carson RB ERFA
Reggie Gilbert DE ERFA
Robert Tonyan Jr. WR ERFA
Jake Kumerov WR ERFA
Tyler Lancaster DT ERFA
Lucas Patrick G ERFA

 

[elcid]

Thanks for all the clarifications guys. Feels bad we didnt sign Eric Reed when we had the chance huh

 

[Mondio]

Thanks for all the clarifications guys. Feels bad we didnt sign Eric Reed when we had the chance huh

So did I, until he ran out to center field to make a point with someone he didn't agree with. Someone that simply chose a different route to address the same problem. Someone that has remained professional and committed the entire time, just has a slightly different way of going about things. Reid made sure to make it a point to publicly let him know how he felt, in a way and in a situation that couldn't have made him look more petty or unprofessional if he tried. I'm all for public protest and a person's right to do so. Even when I don't agree. But Reid just outed himself as a completely selfish and unprofessional player. My bad feelings of not having him went ****.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Thanks for all the clarifications guys. Feels bad we didnt sign Eric Reed when we had the chance huh

Well, Eric Reid is still on the case, calling guys out for lack of "purity" in the NFL's Black Lives Matter "caucus". His comments strike me as a little incoherent. Maybe they make more sense to the people in the room, so to speak. I think you have to consider how well this continued activism would play in the Great White North.

 

[Dantés]

Reid demands tolerance and freedom of expression, unless that expression is not the kind he likes, in which case he doesn't tolerate it.

 

[El Guapo]

As others pointed out, Gutekunst plans to be more active in free agency. The GM knew that he wouldn't get any value for HHCD, so why waste half a season when you might improve your team by giving another guy a chance.

As for the 4th round return, the best that Denver was able to get for Demaryius Thomas was a 4th round pick. Player for player and disregarding need, I would have taken Thomas before Dix. For the Packers to essentially get the same compensation I think was a good move.

 

[BrokenArrow]

I'm afraid that fans who have the impression that Clinton-Dix wasn't any good will soon realize he performed at a higher level than any of them realized.

I believe what was said was not that he wasn't any good, but that he's not as good as he and his agent probably think he is and the money they will be wanting.

 

[GleefulGary]

I'm afraid that fans who have the impression that Clinton-Dix wasn't any good will soon realize he performed at a higher level than any of them realized.

HaHa was our best safety. There’s no denying that. It was, however, a pretty low bar.

HaHa would occasionally pick up flash plays. But for the last two years, his tackling, his reaction speed, and his effort have been awful. Under Capers, there was some question as to whether part of that was scheme. Not so with Pettine. HaHa is late to routes, tackles poorly, and again, shows poor effort on the field. His talent isn’t so great that we can, or should, put up with that.

We may not be able to replace him this year, but I’m not too worried about replacing him next year.

Check out these clips from Andy Herman. HaHa is a fine player, but he’s not as good as your PFF suggests he is.

https://m.cheeseheadtv.com/blog/gra...nton-dix-blake-martinez-bonus-film-review-506