Breaking Down Top RAS Prospects Different Ways (RAS scores as of 4/3/2023)

tynimiller

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Few exercises of RAS observations. One exercise touches on the topic of minimum thresholds - big nod to @Dantés threshold thread HERE was awesome...how many prospects meet those "standards", and I end with notables that missed the 7.00 threshold.

The Top 101:
CB - 15
DE - 8
DT - 10
FB - 2
FS - 4
LB - 9
OC - 3
OG - 8
OT - 11
QB - 2
RB - 6
SS - 3
TE - 6
WR - 14

The Top 10 of Each Position:
CB: Deonte Banks 10 / J Brents 9.98 / C Gonzalez 9.95 / R Moss 9.90 / D Rush 9.80 / K Hayes 9.76 / J Porter Jr 9.72 / C Smith 9.68 / C Trice 9.66 / J Bernard-Converse 9.61
DE: Y Diaby 9.86 / I Foskey 9.6 / I McGuire 9.53 / D Hall 9.4 / L Van Ness 9.39 / M Jester 9.33 / D Parish 9.26 / N Smith 9.25 / T Rush 9.08 / BJ Thompson 9.04
DT: K White 9.92 / S Matlock 9.91 / A Adebawore 9.71 / G Dexter 9.70 / C Kancey 9.61 / B Bresee 9.59 / L Bell 9.54 / S Brown 9.46 / J Aho 9.37 / C Wooden 9.28
FB: G Herbert 10 / H Luepke 9.74 / R Burns 8.75 / C Brewington 8.51 / J Williams 6.87 / T Eller 6.57 / U West 5.72 / Z Rasmussen 4.16 / L Kendall 4.12 / Z Ojile 4.04
FS: D Scott 9.94 / A Willis-Dalton 9.41 / A Hearn 9.34 / A Johnson 9.33 / J Martin 9.23 / E Bonner 9.21 / G Owens 9.19 / C Conner 9.15 / AJ Finley 9.11 / RJ Hubert 9.10
LB: J Campbell 9.98 / T Nowaske 9.85 / T Simpson 9.83 / N Hampton 9.82 / Y Abdullah 9.73 / B VanSumeren 9.63 / N East 9.34 / O Pappoe 9.31 / D Sanders 9.28 / A Orji 9.19
OC - R Stromberg 9.75 / L Wypler 9.30 / A Pihlstrom 9.25 / M McCallister 8.60 / J Scruggs 7.93 / P Flynn 7.91 / J Michael-Schmitz 7.84 / O Oluwatimi 7.81 / N Amoah 7.70 / J Andrews 7.44
OG - C Zavala 9.95 / A Bradford 9.80 / S Sow 9.69 / J Gaines 9.64 / B Daniels 9.55 / J Leader 9.52 / D Deatherage 9.42 / JD DiRenzo 9.36 / J Guidone 8.89 / M Aumavae-Laulu 8.85
OT - B Freeland 9.83 / J Witt 9.80 / D Wright 9.78 / B Jones 9.59 / A Hardy 9.57 / N Saldiveri 9.48 / J Duncan 9.45 / T Steen 9.45 / E Bostick 9.4 / P Skoronski 9.31 AND Cody Mauch also 9.31
QB - Richardson 10 / Tune 9.79 / Sean Clifford 9.02 / Bagent 8.98 / McKee 8.75 / Turner Pullen 8.63 / Hunter Johnson 8.31 / Bennett 8.19 / Connor Degenhardt 8.05 / Jaren Hall 7.95
RB - I Abanikanda 9.88 / D Prince 9.87 / B Robinson 9.83 / C Brown 9.79 / E Hull 9.34 / D Hagans 9.30 / Z Charbonnet 8.73 / R Johnson 8.70 / K Mitchell 8.70 / H Hall 8.66
SS - S Brown 9.67 / J Taylor 9.3 / M Vest 9.27 / AJ McGhee 8.85 / N Bolden 8.74 / T Dean 8.71 / K Williamson 8.65 / K Merriweather 8.37 / K Brooks 8.32 / B Hill 7.82
TE - Z Kuntz 10 / D Washington 9.88 / L Schoonmaker 9.86 / L Musgrave 9.77 / T Kraft 9.67 / S LaPorta 9.50 / M Roman 9.18 / J Stephens 9.10 / B Strange 9.06 / W Mallory 9.02
WR - J Mingo 9.97 / B Ford-Wheaton 9.96 / A Iosivas 9.95 / M Landers 9.87 / AT Perry 9.84 / C Chrest 9.76 / D Durden 9.59 / M Wilson 9.54 / R Rice 9.52 / C Tillman 9.51

Threshold Exercise:
TE
is a position with a strong indication of success being above 9.00 - There are 10 that qualify: Kuntz / Washington / Schoonmaker / Musgrave / Kraft / LaPorta / Roman / Stephens / Strange / Mallory...toss in 6 more over 8.00 though (notables in that six is Davis Allen, Josh Whyle, Whiteheart and Ben Sims). Those between 7.00 and 8.00 would add 4 more (with Michael Mayer being the notable in that group).

OT is a position that had two outliers and 8.75 seems to be more of an indicator of success, with anyone under 7.00 really taking a MASSIVE hit to potentially being a starting level Tackle at the NFL level. There are 13 over that (the 11 above plus Henry Byrd and Ryan Hayes). There are an additional 15 more that are over 7.00 but under 8.75 - notables included there are Matthew Bergeron, John Ojukwu, Anton Harrison, Jordan McFadden and Luke Haggard.

*One thing to keep in mind some guys have been Tackles their college careers yet are in the Guard category...example is Braeden Daniels.

Interior OL I'll leave Dante's a touch and just share the same as above - guys above 8.75 threshold are 3 centers and 10 Guards, that includes a few Tackles listed as Guards now like Daniels. Those over the 7.00 minimum threshold grows to include an additional 28 guys which notables in this group of lower but sufficient RAS guys includes: Steve Avila, TJ Bass, Juice Scruggs, John Michael Schmitz, Olusegun Oluwatimi, McClendon Curtis, Asim Richards, Jarrett Patterson, Jake Andrews.

WRs are tougher to correlate to RAS success like TE....but I'll just list those with the 7.0 "minimum" likely threshold this draft has 65 guys there...over 8.0 it has 41...over 9.0 has 20.
Notables guys between that 7.0 and 8.0 level: Xavier Hutchinson, Dontay Demus.
Notables between 8.0 and 9.0: Ronnie Bell, JSN, Zay Flowers, Elijah Higgins, Josh Downs.

Safeties are combined here (FS and SS)...Again seems under 7.00 you are most likely toast...but those over 9.00 we only have 13 prospects, over 8.00 you add an additional 10...and an additional 7 that also hit the absolute minimum of 7.0. Notables between that 7.00 and 8.00 space is Brandon Hill..notables between that 8.0 and 9.0 are Trey Dean, Jordan Howden (visited Packers), Kaevon Merriweather, Kendall Williamson.

So EDGE types are tough because some are ran through testing under the LB title and others as DEs....just keep that in mind that any that were ran as LBs won't be below....this is DEs on the RAS website.

DEs There are only 10 (listed above) that were 9.00 or higher, an additional 11 that are in that 8.00 to 9.00 window, with a final 13 being in that 7.00 to 8.00 window. Notables that are in that 7.00 to 8.00 are Nick Herbig and Robert Beal. Notables between the 8.00 and 9.00 are Zach Harrison, Incoom and KJ Henry.

DTs There are 14 over 9.00, an additional 11 over 8.00 and an additional 7 more between 7.00 and 8.00. Tyler Lacy is the only notable IMO that is between 7.00 and 8.00. Notables between 8.00 and 9.00 are Dante Stills, Jacob Slade and Chris Smith.

CBs there are 17 over 9.00, an additional 15 8.00 to 9.00 and only 7 more 7.00 to 8.00. Notables between 7.00 and 8.00 are Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson...notables between 8.00 and 9.00 are Kelee Ringo, Jaylon Jones, Kyu Blu Kelly, Darrell Luter.

RBs there are only 6 over 9.00, an additional 12 8.00 to 9.00 and an additional 6 between 7.00 and 8.00. Notables between 7.00 and 8.00 are Tyjae Spears, Chris Rodriguez, Tiyon Evans...between 8.00 and 9.00 are Jahmyr Gibbs, Camerun Peoples, Tank Bigsby, Keaton Mitchell, Roschon Johnson, Zach Charbonnet.

Notables that miss 7.00

Notable WRs
that missed 7.0: Jayden Reed, Jalen Wayne, Trey Palmer, Nathaniel Dell (size hits him down), Jordan Addison, Kayshon Boutte, Puka Nacua.
Notable OTs that missed 7.0: Connor Galvin, Paris Johnson (incomplete), Warren McClendon (incomplete), Carter Warren (incomplete), Dawand Jones (size outlier and incomplete), Dontae Bull (Incomplete)
Notable iOLs that missed 7.0: O'Cyrus Torrence, Joe Tippman(incomplete), Ekiyor (incomplete), Jaxson Kirkland (incomplete), Alex Forsyth (incomplete), Vorhees (incomplete),
Notable TEs that missed 7.0: Payne Durham, Latu, Brayden Willis, Kincaid (incomplete/injury),
Notable Safeties that missed 7.0: Jay Ward, Brandon Joseph, Jammie Robinson (visited Packers), Ji'Ayir Brown, Jordan Battle, Antonio Johnson, Brian Branch, Ronnie Hickman (incomplete), JL Skinner (incomplete),
Notable DEs that missed 7.0: Andre Carter, BJ Ojulari, Viliami Fehoko, Mike Morris (size outlier a little), Myles Murphy (incomplete), Tyree Wilson (incomplete), Will McDonald (visited Packers), Felix Anudike-Uzomah
Notable DTs that missed 7.0: Nesta Jade Silvera, Karl Brooks, Byron Young (the Bama one not Tenn), Keondre Coburn, Jerrod Clark, Jaqueline Roy, Siaki Ika, DJ Dale, PJ Mustipher, Jalen Carter (incomplete), Devonnsha Maxwell (incomplete), Mazi Smith (incomplete), Kobie Turner (incomplete). *Now remember massive NTs rarely test well when it comes to RAS. I personally believe a different RAS structure should exist in some capacity for massive NTs.
Notable CBs that missed 7.00: Eli Ricks, Devon Witherspoon (incomplete/injury), Garrett Williams
Notable RBS that missed 7.00: Eric Gray, Tavion Thomas, Kenny McIntosh, Mohamed Ibrahim (incomplete), Deuce Vaughn (incomplete)


One final observation is just the number of "ELITE" athletic types in the draft of 9.00 and higher.

There are 136 prospects fitting that...of those:

CB - 17
DE - 10
DT - 14
FB - 2
Safeties - 13 (3-SS / 10-FS)
LB - 14
LS - 3 ( so dumb )
iOL - 11
OT - 12
P/K - 1 (so dumb)
QB - 3
RB - 6
TE - 10
WR - 20


69 that are 9.50 or higher. I've listed the names from highest RAS to Lowest beside.
CB - 12 (Banks, Brents, Gonzalez, Moss, Rush, Hayes, Porter Jr., C Smith, Trice, Bernard-Converse, DJ Turner, J Bennett)
DE - 3 (Yaya Diaby, Isaiah Foskey, Isaiah McGuire)
DT - 7 (White, Matlock, Adebawore, Dexter, Kancey, Bresee, Bell)
FB - 2 (Hebert, Luepke)
Safeties - 2 (Daniel Scott, Sydney Brown)
LB - 6 (Campbell, Nowaske, Simpson, Hampton, Abdullah, VanSumeren)
LS - 3 (dumb)
iOL - 7 (Zavala, Bradford, Stromberg, Sow, Gaines, Daniels, Leader)
OT - 5 (Freeland, Witt, Wright, B Jones, Hardy)
P/K - 0
QB - 2 (Richardson, Tune)
RB - 4 (Abanikanda, Prince, Robinson, Brown)
TE - 6 (Kuntz, Washington, Schoonmaker, Musgrave, Kraft, LaPorta)
WR - 10 (Mingo, Ford-Wheaton, Iosivas, Landers, Perry, Chrest, Durden, M. Wilson, Rice, Tillman)

*Of those elite of the elite 9.5s and above...I personally see only like a handful of guys that I bet don't go drafted OUTSIDE OF iOL. iOL are an outlier and it makes sense because Tackles are coveted at the next level and a team would rather draft a capable athletic Tackle prospect with say too short of arms or slightly more guard build and slide them in than draft pure interior guys. Of the best iOL I'll be honest I've only scouted three of them listed and one I have as a Tackle prospect (Daniels).

What's crazy is of the remaining guys that I do expect to be drafted on the 9.50+ list: I only see the following as potentially Day 3 types (expect the rest to go first two days) again excluding the oddity that is iOL:

Kaleb Hayes CB
Clayton Tune QB
Scott Matlock DT
Daniel Scott S
Yasir Abdullah LB
Nick Hampton LB
Israel Abanikanda RB
Deneric Prince RB
Andrei Iosivas WR
AT Perry WR
Michael Wilson WR

Overall it is almost a guarantee it seems that if you're on the defensive side of the ball and have a legit 9.50 RAS or higher, you are going to get drafted and get drafted in the top three rounds of the draft. I may have to track this for a few years and see how true this is.
 
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tynimiller

tynimiller

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I will say, purely from an athletic standpoint vs our needs - it aligns very nicely for us.
 

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