Tyni's February Mock Draft

[tynimiller]

Yes. That’s where I’m at on Gary. For myself if he was $18-20Mil annual I’m on board. It’s more I just don’t think he’s living up to $24mil+ value.

Meaning if I could scrape that pure $24mil average and invest it elsewhere I’d do it. Obviously it does not work that way though. Also it’s always about who’s going to replace him. A rotation of Cox Jr and Oliver or Sorrell might be risky. Although on a 1/2 season sample Cox Jr was basically playing Rashan level before his injury.

The decision isn’t mine to make but I think reasonable middle ground is a contract that would keep Gary intact for 2yrs, while trimming his $$ impact around $5mil annual.

Yeah I'm trying hard to get Gary to see the truth and I'd not even be shy to say we want to start cutting your snaps back to make you actually better and more productive. We dont' want to see you go like Preston and then be irrelevant.

 

[AmishMafia]

So the easiest way to track it with as little subjectivity as possible is pressures fall into three categories; sack, hit, hurry. Gary historical percentages fall like this:

One of these is Gary the other Parsons (bottom). Now keep in mind Parsons is widely considered one of the best in the league, and arguably ever in his young career....

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Gary actually operates relatively similar to Parsons, just doesn't create as high of a pressure per snap rate:

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I have a tough time believing these numbers. I would have thought Gary had 2x as many pressures. Looking at a few sources for best pass rusher, micah is in the top 3 of most and Gary doesnt appear except 1 that went to top 50. And he was #50.

 

[tynimiller]

I have a tough time believing these numbers. I would have thought Gary had 2x as many pressures. Looking at a few sources for best pass rusher, micah is in the top 3 of most and Gary doesnt appear except 1 that went to top 50. And he was #50.

I don't think I mistyped them, it is possible but I don't think I did (believe I double checked them)

 

[OldSchool101]

I have a tough time believing these numbers. I would have thought Gary had 2x as many pressures. Looking at a few sources for best pass rusher, micah is in the top 3 of most and Gary doesnt appear except 1 that went to top 50. And he was #50.

Interesting. I do recall both Gary and Slaton showed up on the top 25 graded Run Stop efficiency grades for 2024. I’m going off memory because I can’t find it now so don’t quote me. ESPN had Tederell “TJ” Slaton at #1 and Rashan was on the list but further down

 

[Heyjoe4]

Strongly disagree on Gary never being an impact player....that dude was a BEAST in 2021, 2022 and honestly 2023 to a degree. 2024 was abysmal for him in comparison to past and 2025 was a growth of his issues which is primarily centered around his body isn't allowing him to win in a number of ways like it used to, his quickness and speed burst is gone. Crazy thing is he is still a very good edge...I mean 60 total pressures in a season is no slouch, but he just isn't matching his pay right now. I mean Enagbare saw 521 snaps in 2025 and created only 25 pressures - 1 per 20+ snaps. Gary created a pressure every 11+

That's probably "recency bias" on my part. Gary did have some fine, fine years, just not very many.

I remember when he was drafted out of MI. Some fans on this forum and eslewhere mentioned his lack of sacks in college and didn't understand the high draft position. I remember he was selected as an athletic marvel and for his potential in the NFL. He simply didn't need to produce sacks at MI. I think his first year he was learning, and then as you note, he put together some very good years.

It's a shame that he is in decline at what still seems like a relatively young age for DEs. Then again it is a very demanding position. If his contract can be reworked to reflect performance, I'd be fine if he remained with the Packers.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Just FTR I don't know what the normal or league average is from say the top 100 pressure guys as far as breakdown of sacks, hits, hurries....it would be an interesting thing to maybe pull the data and write formula for....maybe sometime.

I'm a little surprised the info isn't available. In order to measure how effective or ineffective a DE or rushing LB is, all of these stats are required to paint a complete picture. And I'd be interested in pressures that lead to INTs, for example. That's a non-sack but it lead to a TO. I'm sure scouts have access to such info. It's probably possible to get the info out of an AI chatbot with a little patience.

IMO, DEs and LBs are too often judged only by the number of sacks they produce. It's an important number, no doubt and I'm amazed at what guys like Garrett, Parsons, and JJ Watt have done. But for a guy who produces fewer sacks than his peers, other stats should be looked at for a fair comparison.

Parsons illustrates how a dominant DE/LB can affect an entire D. There may be no easy way to measure that impact.

 

[Heyjoe4]

So the easiest way to track it with as little subjectivity as possible is pressures fall into three categories; sack, hit, hurry. Gary historical percentages fall like this:

One of these is Gary the other Parsons (bottom). Now keep in mind Parsons is widely considered one of the best in the league, and arguably ever in his young career....

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Gary actually operates relatively similar to Parsons, just doesn't create as high of a pressure per snap rate:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

Interesting stats, thanks. Looking at this, I wouldn't refer to Gary as a "beast" at any point in his career - he had only two double-digit sack years. It's also interesting that the stat on pressures is a sum of sacks, hits, and hurries - I didn't know that. It makes sense.

And looking at just that stat, pressures, the last three years look consistent. He only had one relatively big year in 2021.

Anyway, terms like "beast" and "impact player" are too subjective to be useful. This chart shows an above average DE IMO. I'd like to see him brought back on a more reasonable contract that does reflect his production. To put it another way, if the Packers didn't have him, he'd look like a decent FA acquisition at the second level of FAs.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think pressures given are not all the same. They are probably all counted as 1 but some actually affect the throw and then a lot of times the rusher is just getting close but the QB was already throwing anyway and wasn't really affected. I kind of think Gary had a bunch of those latter ones. jmo

I agree with you g. Looking at the stats Ty provided below, Gary doesn't stand out as an elite DE. He's not a slouch either. I'm fine with him coming back on a more reasonable contract.

 

[tynimiller]

Interesting stats, thanks. Looking at this, I wouldn't refer to Gary as a "beast" at any point in his career - he had only two double-digit sack years. It's also interesting that the stat on pressures is a sum of sacks, hits, and hurries - I didn't know that. It makes sense.

And looking at just that stat, pressures, the last three years look consistent. He only had one relatively big year in 2021.

Anyway, terms like "beast" and "impact player" are too subjective to be useful. This chart shows an above average DE IMO. I'd like to see him brought back on a more reasonable contract that does reflect his production. To put it another way, if the Packers didn't have him, he'd look like a decent FA acquisition at the second level of FAs.

That is one small part of his job however, in the majority of his snaps he isn’t rushing the passer but playing the run…don’t get lost only looking at the sack column to judge an edge player entirely.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm a little surprised the info isn't available. In order to measure how effective or ineffective a DE or rushing LB is, all of these stats are required to paint a complete picture. And I'd be interested in pressures that lead to INTs, for example. That's a non-sack but it lead to a TO. I'm sure scouts have access to such info. It's probably possible to get the info out of an AI chatbot with a little patience.

IMO, DEs and LBs are too often judged only by the number of sacks they produce. It's an important number, no doubt and I'm amazed at what guys like Garrett, Parsons, and JJ Watt have done. But for a guy who produces fewer sacks than his peers, other stats should be looked at for a fair comparison.

Parsons illustrates how a dominant DE/LB can affect an entire D. There may be no easy way to measure that impact.

Parsons is not even just elite, dude is IMO outside of even being included when talking about expectations for other edges

 

[Heyjoe4]

Parsons is not even just elite, dude is IMO outside of even being included when talking about expectations for other edges

Yeah Parsons plays at another level. "Elite" doesn't cover it. He's a generational talent and his play impacts every other player on D. He's the kind of player who comes around like once every 50 years.

I haven't watched other elite DEs like Garrett, JJ Watt, Crosby, et al. I doubt that their play affects the entire D the way Parsons affects a D.

 

[AmishMafia]

That's probably "recency bias" on my part. Gary did have some fine, fine years, just not very many.



I remember when he was drafted out of MI. Some fans on this forum and eslewhere mentioned his lack of sacks in college and didn't understand the high draft position. I remember he was selected as an athletic marvel and for his potential in the NFL. He simply didn't need to produce sacks at MI. I think his first year he was learning, and then as you note, he put together some very good ye



It's a shame that he is in decline at what still seems like a relatively young age for DEs. Then again it is a very demanding position. If his contract can be reworked to reflect performance, I'd be fine if he remained with the Pack

He didnt need to produce?

The problem with Gary then is the problem with him now. He just disappears and is a non factor for significant stretches. And it wasn't just sacks, it was pressures

I wanted Jeffrey Simmons that year. He showed up high on those top pass rusher lists I was looking at. Can you imagine what that kind of production from the DI would have on our defense? Yeah, I know ow i get more wrong than right.

Anyway, I agree. He would have to take a significant pay cut to stay.

 

[Heyjoe4]

He didnt need to produce?

The problem with Gary then is the problem with him now. He just disappears and is a non factor for significant stretches. And it wasn't just sacks, it was pressures

I wanted Jeffrey Simmons that year. He showed up high on those top pass rusher lists I was looking at. Can you imagine what that kind of production from the DI would have on our defense? Yeah, I know ow i get more wrong than right.

Anyway, I agree. He would have to take a significant pay cut to stay.

I'm working from memory here Amish - always a risky proposal! As I recall, the defensive scheme run in Michigan when he was there didn't put him in position to be a splashy sack machine. He was billed as a physically gifted athlete and would make the adjustment to the NFL and perform at an elite level, or certainly close to it. Now that you mention it, it seems kinda odd that he wouldn't produce more in Michigan.


But given the scarcity of good DTs/DEs on the team, I'm fine keeping him on a reduced contract. He's better than the younger LVN.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That is one small part of his job however, in the majority of his snaps he isn’t rushing the passer but playing the run…don’t get lost only looking at the sack column to judge an edge player entirely.

Strongly disagree that pass defense and getting after the QB "one small part" of a DE's job. Try telling that to Parsons .

Yep, these guys have to play both. Interesting that some of these guys are good as a pass defender or as a run defender, but not both.

On one hand it makes sense. The DC is calling a play depending on what's expected, run or pass.

The knock on Parsons in a few places I saw was that he wasn't very good against the run. I thought he's played the run well.

 

[tynimiller]

Yeah Parsons plays at another level. "Elite" doesn't cover it. He's a generational talent and his play impacts every other player on D. He's the kind of player who comes around like once every 50 years.

I haven't watched other elite DEs like Garrett, JJ Watt, Crosby, et al. I doubt that their play affects the entire D the way Parsons affects a D.

Garrett is same level of impact just differently. Those two right now are light years ahead of others - Garrett will age out quicker or sooner though likely of course.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Garrett is same level of impact just differently. Those two right now are light years ahead of others - Garrett will age out quicker or sooner though likely of course.

I wonder how long Parsons can keep playing at such an intense level. His motor is on from snap to whistle. He never gives up on a play.

 

[tynimiller]

I wonder how long Parsons can keep playing at such an intense level. His motor is on from snap to whistle. He never gives up on a play.

in a recent interview or email he brought up conditioning and I wish he wasn't injured because it sounds like he believes some of the team could benefit from harder condition program - which the majority of that has to be self-motivated and applied...not wait to TC

 

[Heyjoe4]

in a recent interview or email he brought up conditioning and I wish he wasn't injured because it sounds like he believes some of the team could benefit from harder condition program - which the majority of that has to be self-motivated and applied...not wait to TC

It seems like a lesson from life - those who do the minimum, and those who go way beyond the minimum - usually get what they work for.

Parsons has obvious physical gifts for the position he plays, and that alone makes him a rarity. But that doesn't mean much if the desire to excel, to be the best, to win at any cost, is absent. Parsons clearly trains and plays with a ton of self-discipline and motivation. Those are hard things to teach.

I'm not that surprised by his observation that teammates would be better with a harder conditioning program. I imagine there is a line that conditioning coaches don't want to cross for fear of injury. That's ironic because better conditioning should lead to fewer injuries. But going the extra mile is mostly up to the individual player.

Hopefully Parsons can motivate his teammates to be better.

 

[gopkrs]

It seems like a lesson from life - those who do the minimum, and those who go way beyond the minimum - usually get what they work for.

Parsons has obvious physical gifts for the position he plays, and that alone makes him a rarity. But that doesn't mean much if the desire to excel, to be the best, to win at any cost, is absent. Parsons clearly trains and plays with a ton of self-discipline and motivation. Those are hard things to teach.

I'm not that surprised by his observation that teammates would be better with a harder conditioning program. I imagine there is a line that conditioning coaches don't want to cross for fear of injury. That's ironic because better conditioning should lead to fewer injuries. But going the extra mile is mostly up to the individual player.

Hopefully Parsons can motivate his teammates to be better.

I wouldn't think that more cardiovascular would lead to injuries. And that is what would help in the 4th quarter imho.

 

[Pkrjones]

Don't want to create my own thread, but here are my 2026 Pre-Combine Packer picks.

2nd- CB Malik Muhammad - Texas- 6', 183 lbs, 21 yrs, 4.47 40.
3rd - DT Dominique Orange- Iowa St.- 6'-4", 325 lbs, 22 yrs old OR
3rd- DT Darrell Jackson Jr -Fla. St. - 6'-5", 337 lbs, 23 yrs old week after draft.
4th - **Trade #120 to Baltimore for #152 & #172
5th - TE Sam Roush - Stanford- 6-6", 259lbs, 22 yrs old, 4.72 40.
5th - ILB Lander Barton - Utah- 6'-5", 236, 22 yrs old, 4.55 40.
5th- OC Pat Coogan - Indiana - 6'-5", 310lbs, 23yrs old.
6th - WR Kaden Wetjen - WR/Returner - Iowa - 5'-9", 195lbs, 24yrs old, 4.4 40. Instantly makes ST actually Special!!!
7th- CB Tony Grimes - Purdue- 6'-2", 195, 24yrs old, 4.3 40.
7th- OG Micah Morris - Georgia - 6'-4", 330lbs, 22 yrs old.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I wouldn't think that more cardiovascular would lead to injuries. And that is what would help in the 4th quarter imho.

Excellent point gopkrs. I ran a bunch of marathons in my 30s and 40s and know a bit about training for endurance.

I'm pretty sure NFL players prefer strength training to spinning or running, but spinning, running, rowing are some excellent ways to build endurance (with the exception of running which is ******* knees and ankles).

Gluten has been outspoken about the Packers' inability to finish games. Making sure ALL players have solid enndurance training is a must.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Don't want to create my own thread, but here are my 2026 Pre-Combine Packer picks.

2nd- CB Malik Muhammad- 21 yrs
3rd - DT Dominique Orange-21 yrs OR
3rd- DT Darrell Jackson Jr
4th - **Trade 120 to Baltimore for #152 & #172
5th - TE Sam Roush
5th - ILB Lander Barton
5th- OC Pat Coogan
6th - WR Kaden Wetjen - WR/Returner - instantly makes ST actually Special!
7th- CB Tony Grimes
7th- OG Micah Morris

Thanks Pkr, excellent stuff and something to keep a watch for! I like adding a TE in the 5th. MLF seems to love TE-heavy sets, and anything to ease coverage on Kraft is helpful. Musgrave, IMO, is disappointing. He plays like a WR who can't block, and he is clumsy after the catch - like a faster Richard Rodgers.

Anyway, the mix you have here meets a lot of needs. I expect a CB at #52 as well - although there may be a DT with better value. Regardless, Gluten should be looking at the first wave of FA for a CB.

Hey if it isn't a ton of work, can you add the schools to the list? Thanks!

 

[OldSchool101]

My initial draft. I’m not going to get silly with guys dropping multiple RDs etc. So I’ll only select guys that I believe get picked in my draft round.

RD2 Connor Lew, OC Auburn
RD3 Chris McClellan, DT MIZZOU
RD4 Daylen Everette, CB Georgia
RD5 Sam Roush, TE Stanford
RD6 Eric McCalister WR, TCU
(GB trades up using a pair of 7ths)

 

[OldSchool101]

Don't want to create my own thread, but here are my 2026 Pre-Combine Packer picks.

2nd- CB Malik Muhammad - Texas- 6', 183 lbs, 21 yrs, 4.47 40.
3rd - DT Dominique Orange- Iowa St.- 6'-4", 325 lbs, 22 yrs old OR
3rd- DT Darrell Jackson Jr -Fla. St. - 6'-5", 337 lbs, 23 yrs old week after draft.
4th - **Trade #120 to Baltimore for #152 & #172
5th - TE Sam Roush - Stanford- 6-6", 259lbs, 22 yrs old, 4.72 40.
5th - ILB Lander Barton - Utah- 6'-5", 236, 22 yrs old, 4.55 40.
5th- OC Pat Coogan - Indiana - 6'-5", 310lbs, 23yrs old.
6th - WR Kaden Wetjen - WR/Returner - Iowa - 5'-9", 195lbs, 24yrs old, 4.4 40. Instantly makes ST actually Special!!!
7th- CB Tony Grimes - Purdue- 6'-2", 195, 24yrs old, 4.3 40.
7th- OG Micah Morris - Georgia - 6'-4", 330lbs, 22 yrs old.

I really like the Coogan and Wetjen selections in Day3

 

[Heyjoe4]

My initial draft. I’m not going to get silly with guys dropping multiple RDs etc. So I’ll only select guys that I believe get picked in my draft round.

RD2 Connor Lew, OC Auburn
RD3 Chris McClellan, DT MIZZOU
RD4 Daylen Everette, CB Georgia
RD5 Sam Roush, TE Stanford
RD6 Eric McCalister WR, TCU
(GB trades up using a pair of 7ths)

I'll be surprised if they use their 2nd round pick on an OC.

CB and DT are much bigger needs. I'm hoping Gluten can find some first-tier FAs at CB, DT, and/or OL - in that order. That would certainly impact the draft.