Tyni's February Mock Draft

Heyjoe4

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Now truthfully let's say we live in a world Doubs does sign. That forces me to another place I don't like but think we need to do and that is trade Reed. Golden and Savion both do or can offer replacement role for him and it would provide immediate equity return (likely in that late third) or a 4th and 7th type deal cuz he is a solid WR and proven...someone would want him.

Not a world I envision happening...but still.
It's an interesting point. Up until now, it's more or less been assumed that Reed would remain and Doubs would leave. It's worth considering the opposite, keep Doubs and trade Reed. They could MAYBE trade Reed for an area of need (CB, OL, DT) (When is Reed due for a new contract?)

Personally, I like Reed just a little better for his YAC ability. Doubs probably has better hands and slightly better routes, but Reed is a better deep threat and better at YAC (well, I think he is....). So let Doubs go and get a comp pick.

Amazing to me that the team is in this position (a crowded and talented WR group). when just a few short years ago the only WR in town was Adams (well, it seemed that way), then Adams left and Gluten was getting heat to fix WR. Gluten took Watson as an early round 2 pick (I think they traded places with Minnesota in round 2). That played out well and Watson is arguably the #1 WR on the team. He's still got injury issues, but his play has improved each year and the opposing D has to account for him.

Anyway, back to the point, I'd keep Reed and let Doubs leave. Much like Quay Walker, I doubt the Packers will want to pay what these guys will get in FA. I am really gonna miss Doubs though.
 

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Won't be re-signing Doubs, too many other "mouths to feed". Kraft is about to become the highest paid TE with a 4yr/$80mil deal. Watson should soon be getting a 4yr/$125-$130mil deal.

Love his play over last 3 years, but greener ($$$) pastures elsewhere.
Good point, and I think you're right about the money Kraft and Watson will get. It's debatable if Kraft is the best TE in the NFL. But another team would certainly pay him that and so the Packers have to go high or match. Kraft is just too important to the offense. He'll get a sweet deal from GB.

Watson is very, very good - but his injury history keeps him out of the elite money range ($40 mil plus/AAV). So 4 years, $125 mil sounds about right. About $30 mil/AAV. Not cheap but again, someone else will pay him in FA. (I'd rather see a 3-year deal at $80-$90 mil total.)

Fortunately these aren't issues this offseason. Gluten has enough to do already.
 

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See I like Enagbare. I have him a smidge behind a Preston Smith type player. Yet JJ might be a value signing. He’s average, but an in-system, plug n play Edge.

I still don’t know what to think of where Cox Jr fits. Is his injury serious? He was one of the hottest Defenders we had down the late 2024 stretch. If Brenton Cox is medically sound? I think he’s very similar to Enagbare and maybe a higher ceiling.

Then we’d have Oliver and Sorrell. It’s not like The Packers don’t have options. They can start with Lukas opposite Gary. Then I’d either keep 1 of Enagbare or Cox Jr as a backup. Then we have Sorrell, Colin Oliver also.
I agree with you on Engabare. He's been consistently good and I don't think he has an injury history. He's inexpensive. As for the other DEs - I'd hang onto Gary if he agrees to redo his contract at a lower AAV. Give Cox a year to see if his injury was the problem. And find another DT in FA or maybe the draft.

LVN has improved each year but is still not near an elite DE (I think Ty and I have agreed to disagree about LVN!).

I think Gannon will be a real help for this D, as he likes to position guys according to their relative strengths, rather than run a defined scheme. I think he'll use Parsons to get other guys opportunities, like LVN. Hafley didn't play Parsons as well as I'd like. Parsons can and should improve the play of the other 10 guys on D.
 

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As the original post stated it comes with a lot of variables for the reason I say he makes the most sense from but first it operates with the assumptions we all are correct Jenkins is released - if that doesn’t happen he immediately isn’t first.

Both of his positions he offers serviceable and starting experience we are thin at but especially center.

Rasheed isn’t above him because we have a plethora of Tackles on our roster from Morgan to Tom to Belton or Kinnard (if tendered cheap). Also he would cost a TON of money being a LT, not best considering roster structure and allocation of funds.

Doubs I want desperately to say but again fiscal allocations invested into a position where we have Watson, Reed, Wicks, Golden and Savion (even Melton)…signing Doubs immediately would be a misuse of funds which sucks cuz I love him. If we did Reed needs traded asap to cover bigger needs.

Quay to me is the closest to Rhyan from a roster construction and value BUT we have Cooper and McDuffie who has been awesome since signing his extension. Hopper and Jamon are wildcards that show promise…

Rhyan is the only potential center, every other pending FA we have an answer for their departure (of varying degrees)

Rhyan is not going to cost a ton, likely can be signed to a two year deal that easily is a one if you find the center of the future in draft or play out the contract again at not a high cost.

I begrudgingly see him as the most beneficial when you consider roster construction and fiscal allocations
Well Ty, we certainly feel the same way about Doubs. Hate to see him go, but it looks like a given.

And I also agree that Rhyan is worth keeping, probably at C. There is value to being with a team for a few years, and allows for a faster start, or should.

And R Walker won't be missed much, and other guys can play T as you note. I feel confident in Morgan's ability to excel at LT - the first time he gets to play his best position. Walker's FA value has dropped from a year ago - but he's just not worth keeping unless he accepts backup pay. That won't happen. He'll find a new home.
 
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Won't be re-signing Doubs, too many other "mouths to feed". Kraft is about to become the highest paid TE with a 4yr/$80mil deal. Watson should soon be getting a 4yr/$125-$130mil deal.

Love his play over last 3 years, but greener ($$$) pastures elsewhere.
Yes. Kraft is already in process of being locked up for 4yrs etc.

Plus we have Reed who led our team in receiving yards for 2 straight seasons. Then we have Watson who’s a good deep threat. Plus Golden and Savion entering Sophomore seasons and both showed adequate promise.
 
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I agree with you on Engabare. He's been consistently good and I don't think he has an injury history. He's inexpensive. As for the other DEs - I'd hang onto Gary if he agrees to redo his contract at a lower AAV. Give Cox a year to see if his injury was the problem. And find another DT in FA or maybe the draft.

LVN has improved each year but is still not near an elite DE (I think Ty and I have agreed to disagree about LVN!).

I think Gannon will be a real help for this D, as he likes to position guys according to their relative strengths, rather than run a defined scheme. I think he'll use Parsons to get other guys opportunities, like LVN. Hafley didn't play Parsons as well as I'd like. Parsons can and should improve the play of the other 10 guys on D.
Where I was wrong last year is I really expected more production per game over 2024 from guys like Musgrave, Cox Jr, Cooper, Gary and Lukas. They weren’t bad but they either injured, went stagnant or regressed. Not sure how much was maybe some relative misuse.

We NEED to get these guys going. I’m hoping this new Staff can put these players in better position to succeed. I’m still excited about Parsons, I think he has a really good chance of returning to form.
 
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Where I was wrong last year is I really expected more production per game over 2024 from guys like Musgrave, Cox Jr, Cooper, Gary and Lukas. They weren’t bad but they either injured, went stagnant or regressed. Not sure how much was maybe some relative misuse.

We NEED to get these guys going. I’m hoping this new Staff can put these players in better position to succeed. I’m still excited about Parsons, I think he has a really good chance of returning to form.
All good points OS. Out of all the names you list, I was surprised by what seemed to be a step-back season for LB Cooper. With Parsons on board, I expected Cooper to benefit the most.

This is just a gut feel. I may be way off base here. Just seemed his play was much more prominent in his rookie season.

As for Musgrave, Cox, Gary and LVN - I think we've seem 90% of the top end for these guys. Gary is actually regressing, and LVN showed some improvement and is probably the only one, other than Cooper, who has room to improve. What LVN can't overcome though are his stiff hips. He has very little bend, and it makes it too easy for a T to block him around and behind a QB.

He is still a very important part of the D. Maybe with a new DC who prefers situational matchups based on strengths/weaknesses to a "scheme". We'll see talent better deployed and along with it, increased individual performance. For example, I think LVN can be a much better player if the DC recognizes his limitations first, and then uses him to leverage his strengths. (I guess that applies to all players on the team......)

Regardless, Gluten has to find a new starter for the DL. He needs someone to complement Wyatt's play, and provide insurance if Wyatt gets injured again.
 
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All good points OS. Out of all the names you list, I was surprised by what seemed to be a step-back season for LB Cooper. With Parsons on board, I expected Cooper to benefit the most.

This is just a gut feel. I may be way off base here. Just seemed his play was much more prominent in his rookie season.

As for Musgrave, Cox, Gary and LVN - I think we've seem 90% of the top end for these guys. Gary is actually regressing, and LVN showed some improvement and is probably the only one, other than Cooper, who has room to improve. What LVN can't overcome though are his stiff hips. He has very little bend, and it makes it too easy for a T to block him around and behind a QB.

He is still a very important part of the D. Maybe with a new DC who prefers situational matchups based on strengths/weaknesses to a "scheme". We'll see talent better deployed and along with it, increased individual performance. For example, I think LVN can be a much better player if the DC recognizes his limitations first, and then uses him to leverage his strengths. (I guess that applies to all players on the team......)

Regardless, Gluten has to find a new starter for the DL. He needs someone to complement Wyatt's play, and provide insurance if Wyatt gets injured again.
Yes that’s where I was going with this. The best Coaches seem to be able to adapt to their players’ strengths. At first we saw a more generic plan with Love. Eventually Matt had to turn him loose. I recall quite a few anti Love posters (not you just sprinkled in here) saying Love threw way too many INT and he could barely clip 60% completion rate). I specifically recall that happening after just several games worth of results, which is not scientifically acceptable. Here we are now and he’s had 28 QB’s throw more INT than Jordan (6) in 2025. His completion % ranked in good category #11
(10 games to qualify) but of that top 11 placing that only 5 QB’s threw for more yards (7.7) per play. I think we’d all agree there’s a trade off for throwing longer and affecting %. He seems to have found a sweet spot. So Matt fully trusts him now and in year 4 he can really loosen the reigns and play to Jordan’s strengths.

I say this because as you mentioned, one area of improvement imo is putting individual players in positions to succeed. This is a well known goal for coaching but it’s also an art. The great Coaches of history have taken what I’d call “above average” players and turned them into Superstars. IMO we did not use several players properly to strengths. Now that’s not a bad thing if it gets fixed. Some of that was out of pure need to plug weaknesses as guys went on IR. Some if that happened before guys like Parsons went down. We have to trust our individual players more until they give us a reason not to. Loosen the reigns and verbalize it to each player why. Challenging men with trust to raise their game is the best compliment you can get. You’ll find the Packers did that quite a bit in the 1960’s. Vince admittedly went to his Veteran players and asked them how he could improve after a losing streak. You have to involve the Player as a partnership and get buy in. The psychology of the brain and how to get maximum effort did not change from those days. We can learn from those old guys, it’s ok it’s not a detriment.
 
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One thing I love that I’m reading about this new D Coaching Staff is they like to get 6 DB’s on the field regularly or at higher % than most. Hobbs is really ideally suited in the Slot but we already have Bullard so last year there was a conflict. You can’t have guys like Q trying to play Nickel 10-15 yards downfield. The modern day TE, RB and WR are just too athletically gifted. You just gotta have the Bullard and Hobbs (maybe Oladapo) types taking over that role more over a Box LB. I’m excited because we’re deep in that area. Really almost overlapping too much. Yet at Boundary we are thin.

Q is meant more for an attacking style D with a secondary you can trust to handle that passing game past that lateral range. If it goes past him that’s the dime role. Get Coop and Q attacking more.
 

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Yes that’s where I was going with this. The best Coaches seem to be able to adapt to their players’ strengths. At first we saw a more generic plan with Love. Eventually Matt had to turn him loose. I recall quite a few anti Love posters (not you just sprinkled in here) saying Love threw way too many INT and he could barely clip 60% completion rate). I specifically recall that happening after just several games worth of results, which is not scientifically acceptable. Here we are now and he’s had 28 QB’s throw more INT than Jordan (6) in 2025. His completion % ranked in good category #11
(10 games to qualify) but of that top 11 placing that only 5 QB’s threw for more yards (7.7) per play. I think we’d all agree there’s a trade off for throwing longer and affecting %. He seems to have found a sweet spot. So Matt fully trusts him now and in year 4 he can really loosen the reigns and play to Jordan’s strengths.

I say this because as you mentioned, one area of improvement imo is putting individual players in positions to succeed. This is a well known goal for coaching but it’s also an art. The great Coaches of history have taken what I’d call “above average” players and turned them into Superstars. IMO we did not use several players properly to strengths. Now that’s not a bad thing if it gets fixed. Some of that was out of pure need to plug weaknesses as guys went on IR. Some if that happened before guys like Parsons went down. We have to trust our individual players more until they give us a reason not to. Loosen the reigns and verbalize it to each player why. Challenging men with trust to raise their game is the best compliment you can get. You’ll find the Packers did that quite a bit in the 1960’s. Vince admittedly went to his Veteran players and asked them how he could improve after a losing streak. You have to involve the Player as a partnership and get buy in. The psychology of the brain and how to get maximum effort did not change from those days. We can learn from those old guys, it’s ok it’s not a detriment.
I only brought this up based on an interview with Gannon. When asked what his "scheme" was for the D, he said he didn't have one. He calls plays based on putting the best players in position to win. Sounds simple and logical, but not easy to do.

Anyway I liked Gannon's answer. The article contrasted Gannon's remarks with a clear scheme Hafley preferred, specifically zone coverage in the secondary. I don't like zone and feel it's used when CBs don't have a lot of intuition and are not as physically dominant as press corners.

But with Parsons, it seemed like Hafley could or should have played more press coverage. QBs were forced to rush throws, and that should make the defense better and provided opportunities for TOs. I didn't see that happen.
 
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I only brought this up based on an interview with Gannon. When asked what his "scheme" was for the D, he said he didn't have one. He calls plays based on putting the best players in position to win. Sounds simple and logical, but not easy to do.

Anyway I liked Gannon's answer. The article contrasted Gannon's remarks with a clear scheme Hafley preferred, specifically zone coverage in the secondary. I don't like zone and feel it's used when CBs don't have a lot of intuition and are not as physically dominant as press corners.

But with Parsons, it seemed like Hafley could or should have played more press coverage. QBs were forced to rush throws, and that should make the defense better and provided opportunities for TOs. I didn't see that happen.
Oh yeah. I’ve been saying that for seems like a decade. When we have a better than average pass rush we should be playing bump n run coverage on the LOS. Not lining up 8 yards back and letting teams pick us apart with passes that have little chance of being defended. Jam the WR immediately and set timing off.
 

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Oh yeah. I’ve been saying that for seems like a decade. When we have a better than average pass rush we should be playing bump n run coverage on the LOS. Not lining up 8 yards back and letting teams pick us apart with passes that have little chance of being defended. Jam the WR immediately and set timing off.
Yeah I don't know why this isn't done more (press coverage). I see CBs routinely back up to just in front of the first-yard marker. That makes an underneath/slant pass easier - getting a first down or setting up a short 3rd down or 4th down. I don't get it. Disrupt at the LOS.
 

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One thing I love that I’m reading about this new D Coaching Staff is they like to get 6 DB’s on the field regularly or at higher % than most. Hobbs is really ideally suited in the Slot but we already have Bullard so last year there was a conflict. You can’t have guys like Q trying to play Nickel 10-15 yards downfield. The modern day TE, RB and WR are just too athletically gifted. You just gotta have the Bullard and Hobbs (maybe Oladapo) types taking over that role more over a Box LB. I’m excited because we’re deep in that area. Really almost overlapping too much. Yet at Boundary we are thin.

Q is meant more for an attacking style D with a secondary you can trust to handle that passing game past that lateral range. If it goes past him that’s the dime role. Get Coop and Q attacking more.
Walker graded out very high against the run and very weak against the pass. That surprised me a bit as he's built like a coverage LB - tall and fast. Appparently he has a spatial awareness problem with anything behind him. He doesn't have that sixth sense, like a QB who can "feel" an imminent sack.

Agreed Hobbs is better played in the slot, but he's not better than Bullard. This will be a test for Gannon and his approach of deploying talent where it can be of maximal value.

Both Hobbs and Bullard are strong enough to play S, although I'd much rather Bullard stays in the slot.
 

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I agree with you on Engabare. He's been consistently good and I don't think he has an injury history. He's inexpensive. As for the other DEs - I'd hang onto Gary if he agrees to redo his contract at a lower AAV. Give Cox a year to see if his injury was the problem. And find another DT in FA or maybe the draft.

LVN has improved each year but is still not near an elite DE (I think Ty and I have agreed to disagree about LVN!).

I think Gannon will be a real help for this D, as he likes to position guys according to their relative strengths, rather than run a defined scheme. I think he'll use Parsons to get other guys opportunities, like LVN. Hafley didn't play Parsons as well as I'd like. Parsons can and should improve the play of the other 10 guys on D.
Enagbare has yet to miss a game in 4 years! Some guys are amazingly durable. He's not a starting caliber player but a good number 3 or 4 outside pass rusher. Very valuable depth player IMO. The problem is there's usually a GM somewhere who will overpay for somebody like that.
 

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Walker graded out very high against the run and very weak against the pass. That surprised me a bit as he's built like a coverage LB - tall and fast. Appparently he has a spatial awareness problem with anything behind him. He doesn't have that sixth sense, like a QB who can "feel" an imminent sack.

Agreed Hobbs is better played in the slot, but he's not better than Bullard. This will be a test for Gannon and his approach of deploying talent where it can be of maximal value.

Both Hobbs and Bullard are strong enough to play S, although I'd much rather Bullard stays in the slot.
Walker it seems was better in college against the pass but somehow it hasn't manifested in the pros. Maybe it was one or the other in how he anticipates.

Everyone says that Hobbs is better in the slot. But the highest PFF graded season he got, was the season he played outside for the Raiders. I haven't given up on him. If he has a whole training camp he may look better this coming season.
 

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Walker it seems was better in college against the pass but somehow it hasn't manifested in the pros. Maybe it was one or the other in how he anticipates.

Everyone says that Hobbs is better in the slot. But the highest PFF graded season he got, was the season he played outside for the Raiders. I haven't given up on him. If he has a whole training camp he may look better this coming season.
I hope he can go through training without hurting our guys b4 getting into regular season and looking like crap.
 

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Enagbare has yet to miss a game in 4 years! Some guys are amazingly durable. He's not a starting caliber player but a good number 3 or 4 outside pass rusher. Very valuable depth player IMO. The problem is there's usually a GM somewhere who will overpay for somebody like that.
Thanks for the stat line on Engabare. I had no idea he hasn't missed a game in 4 years. Wow.

But you hit on the problem with FAs. There's almost always a GM somewhere who will pay your guy a lot more than he's worth. This is a bigger problem with depth guys like Engabare. I remember MVS leaving for KC for about $10 mil/AAV - about $3 mil more than he was worth. H never lit the world on fire, but he was a decent #3 WR.
 

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While this pertains to the 2027 draft, it appears Willis could be the top Free Agent this year. If so, the Packers could very well receive a comp pick between 97 and 100. If Rasheed Walker gets starting LT money, the Packers could get another 4th round comp pick.

Both players were acquired with 7th round picks and made major contributions when called upon. Those are just masterful GM moves. While Gute blows his share of first and third round picks, the rest of his GM resume is impressive. That's why I still think he's able to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl if the coaching is competent.
 
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Enagbare has yet to miss a game in 4 years! Some guys are amazingly durable. He's not a starting caliber player but a good number 3 or 4 outside pass rusher. Very valuable depth player IMO. The problem is there's usually a GM somewhere who will overpay for somebody like that.
That’s an amazing accomplishment in today’s game. Enagbare is a nice offset to what seems like a higher than average injury rate in GB.
 
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While this pertains to the 2027 draft, it appears Willis could be the top Free Agent this year. If so, the Packers could very well receive a comp pick between 97 and 100. If Rasheed Walker gets starting LT money, the Packers could get another 4th round comp pick.

Both players were acquired with 7th round picks and made major contributions when called upon. Those are just masterful GM moves. While Gute blows his share of first and third round picks, the rest of his GM resume is impressive. That's why I still think he's able to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl if the coaching is competent.
I noticed this. I saw a recent projection that Malik and Rasheed are both on the Top 25 list for Free Agency. Obviously it can move a little but they had Malik at #1. Even Rasheed was at #22. I looked at Last years formula and that was basically a Top 97 (RD3) and top 200 (RD6) selection(s). It’s not a perfect science because it also has to do with positional salary and a QB and starting LT should move Rasheed up that list some. Plus playing time factors also, so a player remaining healthy scores higher etc.. That and awards, such as a Probowl bid factor, so it’s a comprehensive formula here that moves week to week this season. Finally there are potential offsets if we sign someone that would garner say a 6th Round pick. Although the bulk of those will wash with our other Day 3 draft-FA compensatory worthy departures.
Not nitpicking, but my own personal real time hypothesis given past information is a Top 100 and Top 150 area with just a sprinkle of good fortune.
 
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I noticed this. I saw a recent projection that Malik and Rasheed are both on the Top 25 list for Free Agency. Obviously it can move a little but they had Malik at #1. Even Rasheed was at #22. I looked at Last years formula and that was basically a Top 97 (RD3) and top 200 (RD6) selection(s). It’s not a perfect science because it also has to do with positional salary and a QB and starting LT should move Rasheed up that list some. Plus playing time factors also, so a player remaining healthy scores higher etc.. That and awards, such as a Probowl bid factor, so it’s a comprehensive formula here that moves week to week this season. Finally there are potential offsets if we sign someone that would garner say a 6th Round pick. Although the bulk of those will wash with our other Day 3 draft-FA compensatory worthy departures.
Not nitpicking, but my own personal real time hypothesis given past information is a Top 100 and Top 150 area with just a sprinkle of good fortune.
Any ideas on where Willis might land?

I'm ok with anywhere except MN. It depends on whether the queens are willing to stick with JJM for another season. He hasn't done much to justify that, IMO. At least for the moment, Willis is the better bet at starting QB. That said, there is little long-term experience to draw from for both players.
 
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While this pertains to the 2027 draft, it appears Willis could be the top Free Agent this year. If so, the Packers could very well receive a comp pick between 97 and 100. If Rasheed Walker gets starting LT money, the Packers could get another 4th round comp pick.

Both players were acquired with 7th round picks and made major contributions when called upon. Those are just masterful GM moves. While Gute blows his share of first and third round picks, the rest of his GM resume is impressive. That's why I still think he's able to build a team capable of winning a Super Bowl if the coaching is competent.

All things of return will be impacted by whom we sign but yes honestly this could set up for a VERY strong 2027 draft compensatory picks to us....even guys like Doubs and Quay likely get starting money elsewhere.....Rhyan could get starting guard or center money and Enagbare likely gets Edge3 level money....

In truth if most sign where I think....

Malik - 3rd or 4th compensatory value
Rasheed - 4th compensatory value
Doubs - 4th or 5th compensatory value
Quay - 5th or 6th compensatory value
Rhyan - 6th or 7th compensatory value
Enagbare - 6th or 7th compensatory value
 

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With the Packers lack of cap space this year, I wouldn't expect free agent signings to diminish the comp picks very much. I would expect that Willis, Walker and Doubs are good as gone. If those guys stay healthy for their new teams which is always a question, the Packers sure could use an extra 3rd, 4th and 5th round comp picks.

I doubt any team that signs Willis for a projected 30 million per year is going to use him as a back up. If he starts most of the season, a late 3rd would be a nice reward.
 
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With the Packers lack of cap space this year, I wouldn't expect free agent signings to diminish the comp picks very much. I would expect that Willis, Walker and Doubs are good as gone. If those guys stay healthy for their new teams which is always a question, the Packers sure could use an extra 3rd, 4th and 5th round comp picks.

I doubt any team that signs Willis for a projected 30 million per year is going to use him as a back up. If he starts most of the season, a late 3rd would be a nice reward.

Oh there will be I'd suspect one if not two above minimum type signings - Gute will have some money for sure, between walking Jenkins, restructuring somewhat likely Gary and/or also Jacobs you're getting into the realm of real $20M space or so

Agressive restructure on Gary using void years (not crazy amounts) - saves us about $14M this year cap hit
Restructure McKinney - about $3M
Release Jenkins - $19.5M

We got $30M in cap space...that's without maybe reworking Jacobs...or asking Banks or Hobbs to tweak anything.

Christian Watson could be signed longterm and potentially lower his cap just slightly...by like $1M

If we sign a guy at CB we have more faith in than Nixon...Nixon cut could be $4M (I am not a Nixon fan but will say I think his current hit is worth having around for 2026).

Jordan Love could even be restructured to a degree - we ain't letting him walk any time soon
 
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