Tyni's Draft Final Days Thread

[tynimiller]

Just going to consolidate a bunch of thoughts here on one thread. There is an abbreviated mock at the end of precisely what I want to see Gute do assuming guys like Bateman, Newsome and Collins are gone and no trade ups to get matched what we were willing to give up.

Only two players exist that I think may fall to to that 19-21 range and I'd be 100% willing to give up draft equity for:

Rashod Bateman WR
Greg Newsome CB

My clusters going primarily off of memory, not an all inclusive list as I no doubt forgot some as I wrote this...

First Round
Jayson Oweh EDGE
Samuel Cosmi OT
Creed Humphrey iOL/C
Alex Leatherwood OT
Jamin Davis LB
Zaven Collins LB
Terrence Marshall WR
Trevon Moehrig S
Christian Barmore iDL

Second Round
Rondale Moore WR
Kadarius Toney WR
Dillon Radunz OT
Nico Collins WR (I personally have graded as a 1st)
Milton Williams iDL
Daviyon Nixon iDL
Jabril Cox LB
Spencer Brown OT
Walker Little OT
Josh Myers iOL/C
Quinn Meinerz iOL/C
Asante Samuel CB
Paulson Adebo CB
Richie Grant S

Third Round
D'wayne Eskridge WR
Amari Rodgers WR
Ihmir Smith-Marsette WR
Tommy Doyle OT
Stone Forsythe OT
Alim McNeil iDL
Robert Rochell CB/S
Ambry Thomas CB
Benjamin St. Juste CB
Tommy Tremble TE
Ben Cleveland OG
Caden Sterns S
Osa Odighizuwa iDL
Cameron Sample DE/DT/EDGE


Fourth Round
Trill Williams CB
Andre Cisco S
Joshua Bledsoe S
Kary Vincent Jr CB
Daelin Hayes EDGE
Sadarius Hutcherson iOL
Drew Dalman C
Tommy Kraemer iOL
Rashad Weaver EDGE/DE
Brendan Jaimes OT
Khyris Tonga iDL/NT
Charles Snowden LB
Dylan Moses LB
Shaun Wade slotCB
Tre McKitty TE
Dez Fitzpatrick WR
Anthony Schwartz WR

Rest of Day 3
Aaron Banks iOL
David Moore iOL
Robert Hainsey OL
Josh Ball OT
Jaylon Moore OT
Josh Imatorbhebhe WR
Simi Fehoko WR
Cornell Powell WR
Jaelon Darden WR
Demetric Felton WR
Avery Williams CB
Shakur Brown
Bryan Mills CB
Chris Wilcox CB
Lamont Wade S
Darrick Forrest S
Cary Angeline TE
Luke Farrel TE
Jake Stoll TE
Tony Poljan TE
Nick Niemann LB
Garrett Wallow LB
Anthony Hines III LB
Forrest Merril iDL
Jonathan Marshall iDL
Darius Stills iDL
Bobby Brown iDL
Mustafa Johnson iDL
TaQuon Graham iDL
Jared Goldwire iDL
William Bradley-King EDGE
Shaka Toney EDGE
Elijah Mitchell RB
Chris Evans RB
CJ Marable RB
Pooka Williams RB
Javian Hawkins RB


WR projections - Personally unless we trade up for Bateman, Terrence Marshall falls to us OR we overdraft to some, reach to others on Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Kadarius Toney or Nico Collins with our first pick. I think we are looking at a second round trade up or a wait till Day 3 to hear a WR name called. Those 6 plus Amari Rodgers and even Amon St. Brown I predict to be gone by the time pick #62 rolls around...and there isn't a WR I like for our fit that I have ranked except maybe a Dwayne Eskridge or Ihmir...but both at #62 I'd strongly argue is like taking Dillon where we did, round early on a potentially solid player..but early nontheless.

I think a surprise pick might just be an EDGE guy early like Oweh, which is not a 2021 need at all...but like Gary is a for the future pick on a special player. Likewise if Tommy Tremble is there in the third don't be shocked to hear Green Bay call another 3rd round TE - I think Gute and MLF both are very high on Tremble and what he can and would do in this system - also provide a possible safety net for whatever happens with Tonyan's future.

I do predict we see two WRs come our way. One will be our prototypical taller, possession style WR with upside like Ihmir Smith-Marsett, Simi Fehoko, Josh Imatorbhebhe or Cornell Powell to name a few BUT I think we also add either an absolute burner for deep threat should MVS leave in FA like Anthony Schwartz in later rounds or a later round slot/sweep type guy like Jaelon Darden, Tutu Atwell, Cade Johnson.

We won't hear a RB's name at all or 6th round at the earliest is another projection of mine. Outside chance that should like a Trey Sermon type be there in the 4th Gute cannot resist...but I love some of the 6th/7th round most likely options to complement and learn behind Jones/Dillon.


Given I want Newsome, Bateman or Collins in the first...but thinking all 3 will be gone - I predict a trade back...which I incorporated in my last week mock I won't do a full write up just share. Traded back, then up twice actually:

Pick 29 for Jets #34, and two 5ths (#146, #154)

#34 - Jayson Oweh EDGE
#49 - Kadarius Toney WR - Traded #62(2nd), #142 (4th) & #154(5th) for #49
#92 - Stone Forsythe OT
#110 - Robert Rochell DB - Traded #135(4th), #178(5th) for #110
#146 - Drew Dalman C
#173 - Josh Imatorbhebhe WR
#214 - Avery Williams CB/KR/PR
#220 - Nick Niemann LB
#256 - CJ Marable RB

 

[Dantés]

We like a lot of the same players.

It's interesting, I just heard Zierlein say that there are teams that have Cosmi at guard. He and Thorn, my favorite OL analysts, are not high on him. For what that's worth.

I like your mock generally, though I am not enamored with Toney, and I would hope for more DB help than that, given that King, Sullivan, and Jackson are all in contract years.

Zaven Collins is another guy I just can't get there with. Physically/athletically, he's a pass rusher. But he isn't a pass rusher in terms of skill set. Skill-set wise, he's a WILL. But at 260-270 lbs, there's no way that he plays that way in the league. So I just have no idea what you end up doing with him.

 

[GleefulGary]

Seems like people think Cosmi has really bad technique, plus athleticism.

 

[GleefulGary]

So you have Nico Collins as a 1st rounder, but taking him at 29 (3 picks from the end of the round) would be a reach?

 

[tynimiller]

So you have Nico Collins as a 1st rounder, but taking him at 29 (3 picks from the end of the round) would be a reach?

You missed the crucial part where I state OR we overdraft to some, reach to others on Elijah Moore, Rondale Moore, Kadarius Toney or Nico Collins with our first pick.

Personally I have Nico as a 1st round grade. I place Elijah Moore right on the cusp, with Toney and Rondale close but behind.

 

[tynimiller]

Seems like people think Cosmi has really bad technique, plus athleticism.

I have Cosmi sliding inside most likely, with Tackle experience in a pinch. I buck the measurables on him more than perhaps one should, but I like him.

 

[tynimiller]

I'll go a step further and dig through what are some of my favorite guys to predict and then see if my gut is right: Day 3 gem finds:

Nick Niemann and Garrett Wallow LBs - These two linebackers are in the same "newer" vein LBs on the lighter side, Wallow with past Safety experience before switching. They offer the athleticism for sideline to sideline coverage responsibilities more than most. BUT unlike some of the lighter LBs that fear contact, both of these guys are willing strikers of the ball carrier. Nick however shines even more than Wallow in that he seems to LOVE to attack the ball carrier. Rarely does a ball carrier leave his grasp when he touches them. I'm not saying either one of them is going to be All Pros...but I could easily foresee guys that lay down solid careers of constant contributions for their teams for multiple contracts - which on Day 3 is more than you should hope for.

Cade Johnson WR - I don't necessarily think he will come to us, nor that he is the type that will attract us. But I just love everything about Cade Johnson and his grit. Undersized - he doesn't care. Not the most skilled - doesn't care. He has a barely over 3 RAS score and reminds me of a 2019 prospect I love that just plays well despite every measurable you apply: Hunter Renfrow.

CJ Marable RB - This Coastal Carolina running back fits perfectly in a pass happy league with solid outside running abilities as well. I don't project him to ever be the #1 back on a team, but this dude will have a backup fit in the league and deliver dependable production I think for years.

William Bradley-King EDGE - I love everything about WBK and his slow journey to Baylor that took him through a few stops. He has a lot of growth left, but is clearly still growing and ascending into the player he will become. The right team and fit, I think he can find a very solid depth role on a team and even play into a second contract possibly.

Jaelon Darden WR - Been overlooked his whole life...even now folks are discrediting this North Texas prospect for who he did battle with in college. All he did is produce against everyone he saw and wakes up every day hoping to make everyone miss. He does fit the MLF system and I think that coupled with Aaron Rodgers this dude could be due for some nasty highlight reels on Sundays!

Bryan Mills CB - My boy, that everyone knows I believe in. I'll not waste much typing - just call it a hunch. This cat is going to succeed.

 

[tynimiller]

@Dantés we overlap often in players we like because I think both of us put a substantial amount of weight on the RAS of a prospect.

 

[AmishMafia]

We like a lot of the same players.

It's interesting, I just heard Zierlein say that there are teams that have Cosmi at guard. He and Thorn, my favorite OL analysts, are not high on him. For what that's worth.

I like your mock generally, though I am not enamored with Toney, and I would hope for more DB help than that, given that King, Sullivan, and Jackson are all in contract years.

Zaven Collins is another guy I just can't get there with. Physically/athletically, he's a pass rusher. But he isn't a pass rusher in terms of skill set. Skill-set wise, he's a WILL. But at 260-270 lbs, there's no way that he plays that way in the league. So I just have no idea what you end up doing with him.

We have no shot at Collins. He wont be getting to 20, and may go before 15. He is going to be really good at the NFL level, a difference maker. He will do very well with pass rush and stopping the run. He is a very smart player. He has coverage skills as well that will develop. I think he will have nearly the impact as Devin White, but just doesnt have the same leadership making-guys-around-you-better of White.

Should we somehow draft him, he will be one of the most impactful players we could possibly get (other than the top 2 CBs). He could take the defense to a new level even as a rookie.

 

[Dantés]

We have no shot at Collins. He wont be getting to 20, and may go before 15. He is going to be really good at the NFL level, a difference maker. He will do very well with pass rush and stopping the run. He is a very smart player. He has coverage skills as well that will develop. I think he will have nearly the impact as Devin White, but just doesnt have the same leadership making-guys-around-you-better of White.

Should we somehow draft him, he will be one of the most impactful players we could possibly get (other than the top 2 CBs). He could take the defense to a new level even as a rookie.

Could be! He could be Leighton Vander Esch. I just don't see quite that level of athlete. I don't really buy him as a pass rusher, and I have serious doubts that a 260 lb linebacker is going to excel in coverage in the NFL.

If they take a linebacker in the 1st round, I'd want Jamin Davis.

 

[Dantés]

Bet MGM has Collins' over/under for his draft slot at 24.5. I'd be A OK if he goes before their pick.

 

[tynimiller]

I love Zaven Collins but I think many are seeing his "shorts" speed and are envisioning him easily covering even slot guys at the NFL level...just not the case. I do think Zaven is going to be very good at the NFL level, but if I want a coverage based LB it's Davis, Cox and even Surratt for me before Collins. However, Collins offers pass rush skillsets none of the others can, atleast not presently. He also handles blockers better than those I listed.

 

[AmishMafia]

Could be! He could be Leighton Vander Esch. I just don't see quite that level of athlete. I don't really buy him as a pass rusher, and I have serious doubts that a 260 lb linebacker is going to excel in coverage in the NFL.

If they take a linebacker in the 1st round, I'd want Jamin Davis.

I think there is a good chance Jamin is there for our pick. I'm all for it. Love the name and would love the speed/tenacity/ coverage he would bring.

But would prefer Collins. As far as hoping he is LVE, not sure if that was a joke. LVE would be his floor, with his likely level being top 10, with top potential being top 3.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Just want to say, if the Packers draft one if the ilb's projected to be there over ANY of the top 5 corners, receivers, or tackles then I will be SERIOUSLY pissed. This defense has too many holes for an ilb to fix.

ILB is the least important position on defense. You put an all-pro ILB on this team and any team with a decent QB in the playoffs is just throwing at Kevin King or the slot all day. Yeah, a better ilb would shore up the defense issue covering tight ends (well, the good tight ends but not the elite ones) but that's not going to matter when the secondary is playing one good corner. I could be convinced that a dline player is an option because it could pressure the qb AND help keep the current ilb's free but just sticking a rookie ilb on this defense? He'll look good against bad teams but won't do much against the good teams. Oh, and who exactly is playing corner NEXT year when King's contract is up and we're doing this while thing again?!

I would ecstatically take Toney or Moore over any of the ilb's projected to fall to the Packers because at least then it might be easier to outscore other elite teams with good defenses.

 

[GleefulGary]

We have no shot at Collins. He wont be getting to 20, and may go before 15. He is going to be really good at the NFL level, a difference maker. He will do very well with pass rush and stopping the run. He is a very smart player. He has coverage skills as well that will develop. I think he will have nearly the impact as Devin White, but just doesnt have the same leadership making-guys-around-you-better of White.

Should we somehow draft him, he will be one of the most impactful players we could possibly get (other than the top 2 CBs). He could take the defense to a new level even as a rookie.

I don’t agree.

Collins didn’t show much as a pass rusher. He got some sacks, but I don’t see what he did working in the NFL.

He ran at 260, but recently weighed in at 270 for the medical combine.

He ran a 4.67 at his pro day, so he’s probably a 4.75 at the combine or around there. That’s a good number if he’s an edge rusher, but he’s not. He’s a 6’4 ILB that struggles to get off of blocks because he plays so dang high. Vander Esch was a lot better athlete, imo.

I think the best way for me to describe Collins is that he has a throwback ILB body, with the play style of a more modern coverage ILB, but not the athleticism. The concept seems really intriguing, but I just don’t see it working out that well. He’s not super physical. I think he’s a day 2 player, but I wouldn’t take him in GB.

 

[DoURant]

I don't see the 1st Rd, hype in Oweh, although he has seemed to drop into the 2nd Rd in most mocks lately. Oweh didn't have any sacks last year... in contrast, Gary only had 3 his final college year, maybe his best football is to come like Rashan's

 

[tynimiller]

I don't see the 1st Rd, hype in Oweh, although he has seemed to drop into the 2nd Rd in most mocks lately. Oweh didn't have any sacks last year... in contrast, Gary only had 3 his final college year, maybe his best football is to come like Rashan's

Don't judge a guy solely based on a stat line. Until the playoffs happened, anyone asking me what game was MVS's best last year I will 100% without thinking say the Eagles game. Zero receptions, zero yards.

 

[tynimiller]

Don't take that wrong though, I know many have him as a 2nd round guy, some might argue even later. I'd only counter someone's thought process if purely going off stat production.

 

[Dantés]

I think there is a good chance Jamin is there for our pick. I'm all for it. Love the name and would love the speed/tenacity/ coverage he would bring.

But would prefer Collins. As far as hoping he is LVE, not sure if that was a joke. LVE would be his floor, with his likely level being top 10, with top potential being top 3.

I know that LVE in recent years has been hampered by injuries, but he really excelled immediately when he hit the league. Calling that Collins' floor is quite the statement. I think his floor is Jahlani Tavai.

 

[DoURant]

I know he has a lot of potential and is a freak, but I just think that too much is put into measurables now.... Now don't get me wrong, the Packers are the RAS team if any team is. I think most of his hype came from 2019, and expectations were high coming in to 2020. I just get nervous when a top EDGE doesn't have any sacks in their last college season. Even though he didn't have a sack, he did have a decent amount of tackles and TFL's

 

[tynimiller]

The TFLs in many systems are a stronger indicator than if he managed to when pinning ears back get to the QB. I 100% get it though and the questions are why some say he could be a 2nd round steal. I don't think he slides past 45 or so personally.

 

[Dantés]

Just want to say, if the Packers draft one if the ilb's projected to be there over ANY of the top 5 corners, receivers, or tackles then I will be SERIOUSLY pissed. This defense has too many holes for an ilb to fix.

ILB is the least important position on defense. You put an all-pro ILB on this team and any team with a decent QB in the playoffs is just throwing at Kevin King or the slot all day. Yeah, a better ilb would shore up the defense issue covering tight ends (well, the good tight ends but not the elite ones) but that's not going to matter when the secondary is playing one good corner. I could be convinced that a dline player is an option because it could pressure the qb AND help keep the current ilb's free but just sticking a rookie ilb on this defense? He'll look good against bad teams but won't do much against the good teams. Oh, and who exactly is playing corner NEXT year when King's contract is up and we're doing this while thing again?!

I would ecstatically take Toney or Moore over any of the ilb's projected to fall to the Packers because at least then it might be easier to outscore other elite teams with good defenses.

Preemptively marrying yourself to anger. Solid.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Preemptively marrying yourself to anger. Solid.

I prefer to look at as a long term relationship with making smart choices with occasional dalliances into anger when ppl in charge of my favorite teams make dumb choices. Maybe it's semantics but it helps me sleep at night

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I don’t agree.

Collins didn’t show much as a pass rusher. He got some sacks, but I don’t see what he did working in the NFL.

He ran at 260, but recently weighed in at 270 for the medical combine.

He ran a 4.67 at his pro day, so he’s probably a 4.75 at the combine or around there. That’s a good number if he’s an edge rusher, but he’s not. He’s a 6’4 ILB that struggles to get off of blocks because he plays so dang high. Vander Esch was a lot better athlete, imo.

I think the best way for me to describe Collins is that he has a throwback ILB body, with the play style of a more modern coverage ILB, but not the athleticism. The concept seems really intriguing, but I just don’t see it working out that well. He’s not super physical. I think he’s a day 2 player, but I wouldn’t take him in GB.

Agree with all of this... I'd also add that I'm not sure how you'd field 3 260+ linebackers in today's NFL. I mean, it might be possible but it would be REALLY contingent on having amazing physical freaks with stellar football instincts.

 

[GleefulGary]

Agree with all of this... I'd also add that I'm not sure how you'd field 3 260+ linebackers in today's NFL. I mean, it might be possible but it would be REALLY contingent on having amazing physical freaks with stellar football instincts.

The Packers don’t have any 260 lb OBLB’s on the roster.