Tyni's Draft Final Days Thread

ThePerfectBeard

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The glorification of the ILB position is fascinating. Packers have a cornerback group with one good starter and a dline with one good player but ILB is the issue...

And those guaranteed great 3 down linebackers you're all excited about? They don't fall to pick 29. I'd be fine if the Packers had a player as good as Devin Bush fall to 29, but that doesn't happen.

I'm not saying we don't need DL or CB... I literally said I'd be happy with OL, DL, CB, or LB. What I was saying is I wouldn't be mad if we felt a linebacker at 29 was the best value to help fix the defense. Realistically, DL and CB are more of a need, but it depends who's there. I would not be instantly mad if we picked a linebacker.
 

AmishMafia

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Oof. Amish— why the edge? Aren’t we on good terms?

I didn’t want Devin White because I don’t like spending high picks on players who don’t impact the passing game. And Devin White has been hideous in pass coverage. So I guess we both feel good about that one?

I have no idea what you’re talking about on the second part. I said I don’t want pass rushers who sack the QB? That’s just not true. Do you mean because I liked Gary coming out? If you’re saying that I’m willing to bet on traits, then yeah— guilty as charged.

LVE doesn’t have sack production because he’s not a pass rusher. He’s an off ball linebacker. He had an incredible rookie season and has struggled with injuries since then.
When I stated that the goal of a pass rusher was to sack the QB, you and GG argued with me. So either you don't want sacks or you just like to argue.

The biggest reason I liked White was because of his leadership. A trait we sorely need on this defense. Some said that White deserved the SB MVP. I tend to agree. I disagree that White doesn't affect the passing game. He had 9 sacks last season and had to be accounted for on every play. That helps your other pass rushers as well. They shut down a very prolific Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes had very little time during the SB.

As far as the matter at hand, we will disagree on Collins. I would love to see what a sideline to sideline front 7 force he could be for us.

As far as being on good terms, of course! When you awake some morning and your butter churn handle is broke, then you will know.
 

GleefulGary

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If you’re going to say that TJ Watt, Dupree, McPhee, Judon, Yannick, and Bowser are ILB’s, then I’m just going to stop wasting my time.
 

GleefulGary

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Wait Amish...are you talking about what Gary’s role was in college? The one that his freaking DC confirmed?

Good grief.

And how do you know White is the leader there? Are you around them? Intimate knowledge? Because $10 says that Lavonte David runs that ship.
 

tynimiller

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@Dantés and anyone else...let's chat Cameron Sample...I've kept wanting to bring him up as he is a piece that is so incredibly intriguing to me if I were a defensive coordinator.

Some places discuss and list him as an EDGE, others a DE, some others yet a DT. The guy literally played stand up OLB, DE and even NT at times. That flexibility and options provided by a player is rare....my only worry would be is he a jack of all trades, but won't excel at any?

His RAS ran as a DE is 6.98, you run him as a DT it's 9.19...so the dude flirts with that athleticism we want to see out of him, kinda.

He's never been a guy I've discussed a ton because I have him going early 4th, and typically other needs have out weighed grabbing such a guy at 92 and he is far gone IMO by 135...but should we move and/or trade around - or I guess draft him at 92 curious of some thoughts on him.

As a reference Keke came out with a RAS of 7.99 (as a DT) and was 288lbs...Sample is the exact same height and 267lbs. His frame could be built on some more and bring us potentially another Keke to peg on both sides of Clark in some packages possibly.

Personally, depending on how the board falls and what questions we've answered already - Cameron Sample is a guy I would love to hear is coming to Green Bay.
 

Schultz

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I like Sample a little bit also. Another guy I have seen listed as both DE & DT that you could get later on day 3 if the position has not been addressed yet or they are looking for a 2nd DL is Graham. I like him in the later rounds. As a 2nd DB in the draft later on day 3 that I do not think anyone has mentioned that I like a little bit is Bynum.
 

Dantés

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When I stated that the goal of a pass rusher was to sack the QB, you and GG argued with me. So either you don't want sacks or you just like to argue.

The biggest reason I liked White was because of his leadership. A trait we sorely need on this defense. Some said that White deserved the SB MVP. I tend to agree. I disagree that White doesn't affect the passing game. He had 9 sacks last season and had to be accounted for on every play. That helps your other pass rushers as well. They shut down a very prolific Chiefs passing attack. Mahomes had very little time during the SB.

As far as the matter at hand, we will disagree on Collins. I would love to see what a sideline to sideline front 7 force he could be for us.

As far as being on good terms, of course! When you awake some morning and your butter churn handle is broke, then you will know.

Ok, I think we are talking about Gary. What I said was while his lack of production was a negative, there were some mitigating circumstances, and he offered a lot of great traits just the same. So either you can't understand that perspective or you just like to mischaracterize what I say. Obviously a prospect sacking the QB would be desirable.

I have no idea if White is the leader on that defense. Given that he's one of the 1-2 worst players on it, I kind of doubt it. But I don't know.

He is definitely a good blitzer. No one can take that from him. But he's inconsistent in run defense, and he's a sieve in coverage. He has a ways to go before he is a net positive.
 

Dantés

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You're playing a good team. Packers are on defense, it's 2nd and 7, how effective is a defense featuring three 260+ pound "non- dline" going to be? You say they don't need to cover but if the offense is in a 1/1 set, the defense is going find it difficult not to have at least 2 of those huge "non-dline" being responsible for coverage. If you're saying the Packers are just going to rush 5 players every time, then it's far too predictable and, even worse, quick passers like Brady are going to get rid of the ball before the edge guys even have a chance to get there.

It sounds great as an occasional package but I'm not sure why you're drafting a guy in the first round that's going to really limit your team's defensive options on most plays. Unless your want to just play Clark by himself on the dline, but then teams are just going to run all over the Packers.

You're missing the point.

The vast majority of the time, the guys who play on the edge (Z. Smith, Gary, P. Smith) are dline guys in function. They have no coverage assignment-- they're rushing the passer. They play much more as even front defensive ends than dropping linebackers. I bet you that they combined for about 200 coverage snaps on the entire season.

So if you drafted Collins and he started at off-ball linebacker, he would probably struggle in coverage and it would probably hurt the defense overall. But it would have absolutely nothing to do with Za'Darius or Gary or Preston being listed as "outside linebackers."

I also don't know what you're talking about with the bold. The Packers don't bring 5 very often. But you're really struggling to understand that they're not in five man fronts the majority of the time. They're in four. They rarely use odd fronts with 3 interior defensive linemen.

Let me illustrate this. The Packers defense in total had about 1010 snaps on the field in 2020. The interior DL guys: Clark, Lowry, Keke, Lancaster, Adams, Wynn, Rush, Harrison TOTALLED 2158 snaps.

So what does that tell you? It tells you that this defense lives the majority of time in sets that use 2 interior defensive line (2158 total iDL snaps is 214% of the 1010 snap total). Only a small % of the time are they putting 3 interior defensive linemen on the field at the same time.

In 2019, they were in "base" defense (3-4) less than 20% of the time. That continued into 2020. They live in nickel and dime, which is, in essence, a 4-2-5 or a 4-1-6.
 

Dantés

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@Dantés and anyone else...let's chat Cameron Sample...I've kept wanting to bring him up as he is a piece that is so incredibly intriguing to me if I were a defensive coordinator.

Some places discuss and list him as an EDGE, others a DE, some others yet a DT. The guy literally played stand up OLB, DE and even NT at times. That flexibility and options provided by a player is rare....my only worry would be is he a jack of all trades, but won't excel at any?

His RAS ran as a DE is 6.98, you run him as a DT it's 9.19...so the dude flirts with that athleticism we want to see out of him, kinda.

He's never been a guy I've discussed a ton because I have him going early 4th, and typically other needs have out weighed grabbing such a guy at 92 and he is far gone IMO by 135...but should we move and/or trade around - or I guess draft him at 92 curious of some thoughts on him.

As a reference Keke came out with a RAS of 7.99 (as a DT) and was 288lbs...Sample is the exact same height and 267lbs. His frame could be built on some more and bring us potentially another Keke to peg on both sides of Clark in some packages possibly.

Personally, depending on how the board falls and what questions we've answered already - Cameron Sample is a guy I would love to hear is coming to Green Bay.

Ok, let's!

I have not watched Cam Sample play football. I probably won't do so.

His profile and athletic tool box is somewhat reminiscent of Za'Darius coming out of Kentucky.

Sample:

6'3" 267
4.83 forty
37"/116"
7.40/4.51

Smith:

6'4" 274
4.83 forty
29"/113"
7.42/4.66

So it's unlikely that at 267, he's going to become a full time 3T. But he could attempt to become an outside/in rusher. However, lots of prospects try to do that, and very few become effective.
 

ThePerfectBeard

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If you’re going to say that TJ Watt, Dupree, McPhee, Judon, Yannick, and Bowser are ILB’s, then I’m just going to stop wasting my time.

I didn't say they were inside linebackers... I swear you're just looking for stupid arguments to "win". What I said was that's a great group of linebackers that those teams have spent a lot of money/draft capital to build. Every single team I mentioned was a top 10 defense and invested more than a 5th round on their inside linebackers.

The Packers have neglected the position for YEARS and it shows. The middle of our defense has been a huge weakness in the pass game and run game. Our linebackers were not filling holes and they couldn't cover. Our team, like you, continues to undervalue the ILB position, but what I was proving was that 8 out of 10 top defenses last year invested 3rd round picks or higher to shore up the position. They do not think it's a wasted position like many fans and the Packers organization do.

I know a ton of people like to go along with the Packers strategy and believe they're smarter for buying in, but when it comes to defense, their philosophy has yet to work.

Now, I'll reiterate that I believe DL and CB are much bigger needs right now because I don't want another lazy argument. There are a ton of holes in the defense though and I think if there's a stud at ILB that the new DC believes will improve the defense in the first, I'm not going to stomp my feet if we pick one.
 
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GleefulGary

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I didn't say they were inside linebackers... I swear you're just looking for stupid arguments to "win". What I said was that's a great group of linebackers that those teams have spent a lot of money/draft capital to build. Every single team I mentioned was a top 10 defense and invested more than a 5th round on their inside linebackers.

The Packers have neglected the position for YEARS and it shows. The middle of our defense has been a huge weakness in the pass game and run game. Our linebackers were not filling holes and they couldn't cover. Our team, like you, continues to undervalue the ILB position, but what I was proving was that 8 out of 10 top defenses last year invested 3rd round picks or higher to shore up the position. They do not think it's a wasted position like many fans and the Packers organization do.

I know a ton of people like to go along with the Packers strategy and believe they're smarter for buying in, but when it comes to defense, their philosophy has yet to work.

Now, I'll reiterate that I believe DL and CB are much bigger needs right now because I don't want another lazy argument. There are a ton of holes in the defense though and I think if there's a stud at ILB that the new DC believes will improve the defense in the first, I'm not going to stomp my feet if we pick one.

“Clearly both the Ravens and Steelers were willing to spend high draft capital to address their inside linebacker position. TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, and Devin Bush are one hell of a trio.”

Your words. At the very least, you insinuated it.

I mean, you’re talking about strengthening the middle of the defense and you’re using edge players for your argument. It just doesn’t make logical sense.
 

Dantés

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I didn't say they were inside linebackers... I swear you're just looking for stupid arguments to "win". What I said was that's a great group of linebackers that those teams have spent a lot of money/draft capital to build. Every single team I mentioned was a top 10 defense and invested more than a 5th round on their inside linebackers.

The Packers have neglected the position for YEARS and it shows. The middle of our defense has been a huge weakness in the pass game and run game. Our linebackers were not filling holes and they couldn't cover. Our team, like you, continues to undervalue the ILB position, but what I was proving was that 8 out of 10 top defenses last year invested 3rd round picks or higher to shore up the position. They do not think it's a wasted position like many fans and the Packers organization do.

I know a ton of people like to go along with the Packers strategy and believe they're smarter for buying in, but when it comes to defense, their philosophy has yet to work.

Now, I'll reiterate that I believe DL and CB are much bigger needs right now because I don't want another lazy argument. There are a ton of holes in the defense though and I think if there's a stud at ILB that the new DC believes will improve the defense in the first, I'm not going to stomp my feet if we pick one.

Defending the Packers approach and the lack of value they place in off-ball linebackers is one thing. I think it's a lower value position, myself. But that's a debate.

But treating edge pass rushers (like Watt, Dupree, McPhee, Judon, etc) as belonging in the same basic category of "linebacker" with off-ball players such as Queen, Harrison, Bush, and so forth is something else.

I mean, just consider-- your point is that the Packers undervalue the "linebacker" position in your opinion. But if you include edge guys in that conversation, it undercuts your whole point. Because they clearly DON'T undervalue the edge guys-- having shelled out big money for the Smith's and drafted Gary.

So what I would say is that the opinion that the Packers should value off-ball linebackers is fine. But the evidence to support that opinion should be about actual off-ball linebackers, and not edge pass rushers.
 

tynimiller

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“Clearly both the Ravens and Steelers were willing to spend high draft capital to address their inside linebacker position. TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, and Devin Bush are one hell of a trio.”

Your words. At the very least, you insinuated it.

I mean, you’re talking about strengthening the middle of the defense and you’re using edge players for your argument. It just doesn’t make logical sense.
Defending the Packers approach and the lack of value they place in off-ball linebackers is one thing. I think it's a lower value position, myself. But that's a debate.

But treating edge pass rushers (like Watt, Dupree, McPhee, Judon, etc) as belonging in the same basic category of "linebacker" with off-ball players such as Queen, Harrison, Bush, and so forth is something else.

I mean, just consider-- your point is that the Packers undervalue the "linebacker" position in your opinion. But if you include edge guys in that conversation, it undercuts your whole point. Because they clearly DON'T undervalue the edge guys-- having shelled out big money for the Smith's and drafted Gary.

So what I would say is that the opinion that the Packers should value off-ball linebackers is fine. But the evidence to support that opinion should be about actual off-ball linebackers, and not edge pass rushers.

@ThePerfectBeard I understand you believe the Packers should value ILB more than they do, however push that aside for a moment and read both of these responses. It is perfectly fine to state you think other teams value ILB more than the Packers do, however you're substantiating it with the wrong players to do so.
 

ThePerfectBeard

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“Clearly both the Ravens and Steelers were willing to spend high draft capital to address their inside linebacker position. TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, and Devin Bush are one hell of a trio.”

Your words. At the very least, you insinuated it.

I mean, you’re talking about strengthening the middle of the defense and you’re using edge players for your argument. It just doesn’t make logical sense.

Nah, you just stopped reading after the first few sentences so you could make a "point".
 

ThePerfectBeard

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@ThePerfectBeard I understand you believe the Packers should value ILB more than they do, however push that aside for a moment and read both of these responses. It is perfectly fine to state you think other teams value ILB more than the Packers do, however you're substantiating it with the wrong players to do so.

I was saying as a whole they value linebackers... in the post, if you continue to read, I state where these teams were selecting inside linebackers. Much higher than we tend to. In hindsight, I guess it's confusing to include their OLBs in the discussion, but I was merely pointing out how important the entire group of linebackers are to a successful defense. Pretty much all of the top 10 defenses have invested money or draft capital in their ILBs. Hopefully, this clears things up.
 

Dantés

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I was saying as a whole they value linebackers... in the post, if you continue to read, I state where these teams were selecting inside linebackers. Much higher than we tend to. In hindsight, I guess it's confusing to include their OLBs in the discussion, but I was merely pointing out how important the entire group of linebackers are to a successful defense. Pretty much all of the top 10 defenses have invested money or draft capital in their ILBs. Hopefully, this clears things up.

I guess my point is that considering edge rushers and off-ball linebackers "a group" just clouds the conversation.

Watt, Dupree, Gary, etc. etc. are basically defensive ends under another name.
 

Dantés

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To circle back to Zaven Collins, I have a couple more thoughts.

If a team saw him having traits as a rusher, he would be interesting on the outside. Because he could lend a certain level of disguise to a defense, given his legit ability to drop. But that hinges on him being able to rush.

Secondly, if he got down to like 245 I would be really interested in what he could do.

But those are both big projections. As a 265 lb off ball linebacker, I don’t see it.
 

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I am doubling down on my theory that if Rashad Bateman OR Greg Newsome make it to the 21s pick the Colts hold we need to make that trade up happen - if they won't and the Titans next same situation same call.

Outside of those two guys and barring someone I don't expect to drop to drop - I'd rather a trade back and add two more picks within the top 120 (one most likely top 50) and roll.
 

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I just fear Newsome has a little of King in him as far as staying healthy. I would be fine with Samuel or E. Moore hopefully available at 29 and not having to trade up. As far as getting a pick around 120 I was hoping they could trade a 4 & a 5 to get there. Depending on which combination you used you could get anywhere from 117 to 121 if you had a willing trade partner. There best 4 and best 6 land them right on that magic number 129 pick. Of course these are only options if there is a player they really like that they feel might not be on the board come there pick.
 

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IF WE STAY AT 29 AND PICK A GUY WITH ANY OF THE FOLLOWING POSITIONS, HERE ARE MY PREDICTIONS WHAT NAME IT WILL BE:

WR - Elijah Moore....the trend and GB tendencies at WR is not to go this short or light....BUT it is also not our tendency to go WR in the 1st...so we will save the prototypical WR in Green Bay for the 3rd or 4th on a guy like Ihmir or Simi. Elijah Moore is specia
OT - This is the toughest as I'm thinking either Dillon Radunz or Walker Little....forcing me to choose I'd probably say Dillon - which I wouldn't argue is slightly early for him. Teven is gone or else I'd say him.
iOL/C - Creed Humphrey. In the end Landon's injury history makes us go Creed over him - both can come in and be the center unquestioned IMO.
DT - Barmore or no one.
EDGE - Jayson Oweh...to me he has Gute written all over him and in many ways is like the Gary pick was...to many would be a year too early, but his potential skillset screams value here.
CB - Asante Samuel Jr....I want Newsome - but he is going to be gone, and Asante offers something that very few other CB prospects does IMO - a known floor. This dude seems to have the most polished and secure floor of many prospects...so while his ceiling is limited by his measurables and suspected to not be as high - there is immense value knowing you just drafted a guy that can see snaps consistently and will be where he needs to be, albeit even if he just gets outdone by a WR sometimes.
S - Jevon Holland...I love this guy and love his versatility. Can drop into slot coverage, roam on back end...I wouldn't argue it is a round early maybe, but if we call a safety I think he might be the guy (Moehrig is gone IMO).
LB - Jamin Davis - he is an athletic freak that is young and can be molded/coached up hopefully. It is a gamble that you have the next David (TB) type Linebacker...but worst case I think you have a ST stalwart and an above average LB to add to the room.
 

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Agree on a lot of this.
WR- E. Moore is the most realistic. And I like him a lot. Returns kicks also right? From someone who would only draft a WR at 29 or not until Day 3. Bateman is the other one if he fell.
OT- would love to get Jenkins here, any chance Mayfield is still on the board? I have Radunz and Little as 2nd round, unfortunately probably not there late 2nd round.
C- Humphrey, only if they have no confidence in Runyan, Hansen etc would I use a #1
CB- I think Samuel is realistic
S- If Moehring is here I have him above Samuel. Things would have to fall perfect for that.
DT- Barmore only
Unless all others are gone I can't get on board with an Edge or LB that would still be there at 29.
 

tynimiller

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Agree on a lot of this.
WR- E. Moore is the most realistic. And I like him a lot. Returns kicks also right? From someone who would only draft a WR at 29 or not until Day 3. Bateman is the other one if he fell.
OT- would love to get Jenkins here, any chance Mayfield is still on the board? I have Radunz and Little as 2nd round, unfortunately probably not there late 2nd round.
C- Humphrey, only if they have no confidence in Runyan, Hansen etc would I use a #1
CB- I think Samuel is realistic
S- If Moehring is here I have him above Samuel. Things would have to fall perfect for that.
DT- Barmore only
Unless all others are gone I can't get on board with an Edge or LB that would still be there at 29.

Mayfield was crossed off my list as a surefire Tackle lock given his measurables.

Also the hypothetical I was addressing is not a list of whether I agree or disagree with the use on such a position, but to predict should "insert position" be called who would it be?

Example, while I didn't include the obviously not going to happen spots IMO:

QB - Kyle Trask, he would be my top rated QB left.
RB - Etienne
TE - Freiermuth
 

tynimiller

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Also @Schultz my day 3 WR comment was based solely on if we went WR in the 1st I think it all but removes the possibility Gute would go WR again in the 2nd and/or 3rd. That's all I meant.

Personally if Nico Collins is there at 62 and we don't draft him I'll be genuinely mad and think we'd regret it. I have him graded as a 1st rounder.
 

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Draft Thought - If I was in Gute's shoes, I'd already be putting feelers out there for a thought process that the Ravens' trade with Chiefs made me think of.

Eagles are a team I've circled for a trade back scenario, but sadly not for heavy this year's draft capital but next. They currently are setting on two firsts in 2022 draft (with a 3rd potentially depending on Werntz play in Indy), and in a rebuild. Them getting another player they covet with a 5th year option makes them willing to move. If you could turn our 29th pick into a 1st in 2022 and say also their 4th this year - I think it is something you'd have to consider hard.

Then, immediately have had discussions with Ravens (31), Jags (33) and any other top 40 team about what it would take to get their pick - you have that 1st or now even 2022 2nd rounder is easily available knowing you have two firsts.

Played out this scenario last night just to experience it, and it was only done because Newsome and Bateman were gone at our pick, so was Barmore...so traded with the Eagles our 29 & a 6th in 2022 for a 1st in 2022 and a 4th (123) this year..

Then convinced Ravens to let go of their 31st pick this year and a 7th next year for our original 1st rounder from 2022 (the trade acquired one I'm banking on being a better one) and a 5th (178) and 6th (220) this year.

Fought the desire I always have to trade up into that 75-125 range and rode rest of draft out:

31 - Joe Tryon EDGE
62 - Nico Collins WR
92 - Benjamin St. Juste CB
123 - Drew Dalman C/iOL
135 - Tommy Doyle OT
142 - Caden Sterns S
173 - Bobby Brown III iDL
214 - Garrett Wallow LB
256 - Jimmie Robinson WR

Now let's use that same approach but do a push to leave the 2nd round with two players instead of pushing back into the first round. This would be a more boring night for fans, but wouldn't be the first time Green Bay has done this.

Trade back with Eagles same thing...this time though, we trade up with a heavy trade that sends our 2022 2nd & 4th (142) & 5th (173) for the Colts 54th & a 7th (248). Colts add some picks this year in later rounds but protect themselves more next year from losing a 2nd minimum for the Werntz trade....and we hold on to that 2nd. You could argue for making this trade with one of our 1st next year and that's it value wise...but not sure Colts would do that. This draft:

54 - Jevon Holland S
62 - D'Wayne Eskridge
92 - Trey Smith iOL (ALL Tackles I liked in top 100 were gone)
123 - Cameron Sample EDGE
135 - Ambry Thomas CB
178 - Dan Moore Jr OT
214 - Jonathan Adams WR
220 - Jermar Jefferson RB
248 - TaQuon Graham iDL
256 - Anthony Hines III LB
 

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