Two 1,000 yard running backs this year

kevans74

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This may have been mentioned before BUT...

I'm looking at this OL and (hopefully) assuming that Bahktiari and Jenkins can be healthy....

Bahk, Jenkins, Nijman, Myers, Newman, Runyan, Rhyan, Tom, Hanson...

All of these guys can pass block, but I also see them as road graders too, guys who can be young Josh Sitton/TJ Lang type guys

All, except Bahk, pretty young and fairly versatile. VERY deep IMHO.

Who's to say MLF and the FO is thinking, we have probably the Top HB Tandem in the NFL, a powerful bruiser and a dynamic agile speed back, BOTH can catch. Why not just run teams into the ground?

Again, both can catch, so I wouldn't be suprised to see them both with 40+ catches.

Maybe Dillon has less catches and more carries. More rushing yards. ~1100 rushing yards
Jones with more catches and touchdowns and less rushing yards. More total yards. ~900-1000 rushing yards

Something like that.

Let AR be efficient, ~70% completion percentage ~35+ passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions or LESS. Top QB rating in the NFL.

Just run teams into the ground and let AR efficiently beat teams in the air methodically?
 

Packerbacker1996

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I think you right on point with the 2x1000 yard backs. And prabobly another 350-500 each receiving each.

I see there receptions fading some in second half of the season due to our receivers being more in sinch with AR.
 

rmontro

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Sounds great. But the first thing that came to mind reading that, is that one of them is going to get injured and miss some significant time or end their season, and we'll have to do without. Not saying that should change our approach though, hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Our problem hasn't been winning regular season games. It would be great if we could be healthy come playoff time.
 

tynimiller

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I think AJ comes closest or most likely to hit 1,000 on ground and Jones has best shot at breaking 500 yards receiving. Together I have them shy of 3,000 yards total but not a ton off
 

Sunshinepacker

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It's interesting to note that none of the last five teams which have had two 1,000 yard rushers won a playoff game.

It’s not so much interesting as it is obvious; the NFL is pushing the passing game to attract viewers and i can’t see anyone of any intelligence saying, “The league is making the passing game easier and more efficient but i prefer to pretend it’s 1994 and take us harder path!”

Also, i like Dillon, but i saw a depressing stat on him recently; of 49 running backs with 100+ carries last year, Dillon was third in carries of 4+ yards and 48th in carries of 10+ yards. He’s great in short yardage but he’s not very good at breaking a big run and if you’re going to rely on the running game then you MUST have big runs.
 

Mondio

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If you're going to rely on the run game, you must move the chains. 4+ yards per carry means were in favorable down and distances consistently. I'll take that all game long every sunday please.
 

tynimiller

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If you're going to rely on the run game, you must move the chains. 4+ yards per carry means were in favorable down and distances consistently. I'll take that all game long every sunday please.

That was the first thing I thought of as well. There is a reason I had many coaches always say they want the run game to gain a clip of 3.5 yards per rush as the threshold to hit. You do that and you're always on pace for a first down on the third play.
 

Mondio

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That was the first thing I thought of as well. There is a reason I had many coaches always say they want the run game to gain a clip of 3.5 yards per rush as the threshold to hit. You do that and you're always on pace for a first down on the third play.
I imagine if took a poll of NFL coaches and ask them what they preferred:

3rd and 2 guaranteed all game long

or 3- 25+ runs and be in 3rd and 7+ all game long they'd take the 3rd and 2. Especially with a QB like Rodgers.
 
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kevans74

kevans74

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I mean I think Mondio has the idea.

**** even 3rd and 4 or LESS, Every time with AR, we will be good

We want long, efficient consistent movement of the chains. Tire the opposing defense out and run them into the ground
 

PikeBadger

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This may have been mentioned before BUT...

I'm looking at this OL and (hopefully) assuming that Bahktiari and Jenkins can be healthy....

Bahk, Jenkins, Nijman, Myers, Newman, Runyan, Rhyan, Tom, Hanson...

All of these guys can pass block, but I also see them as road graders too, guys who can be young Josh Sitton/TJ Lang type guys

All, except Bahk, pretty young and fairly versatile. VERY deep IMHO.

Who's to say MLF and the FO is thinking, we have probably the Top HB Tandem in the NFL, a powerful bruiser and a dynamic agile speed back, BOTH can catch. Why not just run teams into the ground?

Again, both can catch, so I wouldn't be suprised to see them both with 40+ catches.

Maybe Dillon has less catches and more carries. More rushing yards. ~1100 rushing yards
Jones with more catches and touchdowns and less rushing yards. More total yards. ~900-1000 rushing yards

Something like that.

Let AR be efficient, ~70% completion percentage ~35+ passing touchdowns, 8 interceptions or LESS. Top QB rating in the NFL.

Just run teams into the ground and let AR efficiently beat teams in the air methodically?
I can see both get over 1000 in total yards but I think the chances of them both getting over 1000 yards rushing is very, very small.
 

captainWIMM

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If you're going to rely on the run game, you must move the chains. 4+ yards per carry means were in favorable down and distances consistently. I'll take that all game long every sunday please.

That's wishful thinking though. For example, Dillion (48.1%) didn't gain at least four yards on nearly half of his carries last season. It's even worse when taking a look at Jones' (51.5%) numbers.
 

Sunshinepacker

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If you're going to rely on the run game, you must move the chains. 4+ yards per carry means were in favorable down and distances consistently. I'll take that all game long every sunday please.

I mean, statistically, if you have an explosive play during a drive I think the chance of scoring a TD goes up by over 30%. Feel free to ignore that but I think it's kind of silly. I'm not saying that Dillon is a bad running back, just that he's not an explosive runner.
 

Mondio

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I mean, statistically, if you have an explosive play during a drive I think the chance of scoring a TD goes up by over 30%. Feel free to ignore that but I think it's kind of silly. I'm not saying that Dillon is a bad running back, just that he's not an explosive runner.
I'm not ignoring it. I think consistently running it and moving the chains only helps that fact because I'd bet the majority of explosive plays are in the play action passing game. If you can't run consistently, teams don't care about it. Gladly give up a big run now and again when they know most times you're punting anyway.

Give me the consistent chain mover paired with Rodgers every day.

He's not an explosive runner, he's a very consistent runner and that is valuable.
 

Mondio

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That's wishful thinking though. For example, Dillion (48.1%) didn't gain at least four yards on nearly half of his carries last season. It's even worse when taking a look at Jones' (51.5%) numbers.
you're implying something I never said.
 

tynimiller

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I mean, statistically, if you have an explosive play during a drive I think the chance of scoring a TD goes up by over 30%. Feel free to ignore that but I think it's kind of silly. I'm not saying that Dillon is a bad running back, just that he's not an explosive runner.

I know at least my view was if you told me we average TERRIBLE but get a couple explosive plays a game OR average great but get no explosive plays I'm choosing the strong average - especially with Rodgers as my QB
 
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First and foremost. I know both RB's are capable of 1,000 rushing. Period
That said, I don't feel like that should be our goal either. I would like us to get both RB's more involved overall, but that includes the passing game. We essentially have at least 2 multi-dimensional RB's now.
In an ideal area (but realistic) I could see

Aaron Jones going 1500 all-purpose (950 rushing/ 185 carries; 550 receiving)
AJ Dillon going 1500 all-purpose (1100 rushing/ 210 carries; 400 receiving)

I just think we will give both guys plenty of opportunities in some facet. That being in balancing touches to their strengths and matchup scenarios game to game. Both guys can catch a ball and punish you that way, so I don't want to force them to just run the ball either.

Already correcting myself. I could also see a reversal as AJ Dillon has an amazing 9.3 yards per reception (92.3% catch rate!) He's like trying to stop a cannonball in space.. flip those numbers above! 36/39 receiving?! I'm targeting Dillon no less than 60 times in the passing game this season, his average catch rate is 10% higher than McCAffery and his average result is a full yard more than Christian, he's not being used enough there. imo.
 
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Schultz

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It’s not so much interesting as it is obvious; the NFL is pushing the passing game to attract viewers and i can’t see anyone of any intelligence saying, “The league is making the passing game easier and more efficient but i prefer to pretend it’s 1994 and take us harder path!”

Also, i like Dillon, but i saw a depressing stat on him recently; of 49 running backs with 100+ carries last year, Dillon was third in carries of 4+ yards and 48th in carries of 10+ yards. He’s great in short yardage but he’s not very good at breaking a big run and if you’re going to rely on the running game then you MUST have big runs.
I keep reading and re-reading this and still no where in here do I see anyone saying Dillon averaged 4 yards a carry.
 

captainWIMM

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you're implying something I never said.

You need to consider that on half of their rushing attempts both Dillon and Jones don't gain at least four yards though. Therefore it's unrealistic to expect that running them twice in a row will result in third and short situations for the most part.
 

Mondio

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I’m fully aware, I’ve been watching football for a long time. My point was only that he’s a consistent runner. He doesn’t have many explosive runs, partially from how he used more so than his capability imo, but it his what it is.

While big plays in the run game are great, consistent plays in the run game will lead to more then the play action passing game. There are a lot of pros to having a consistent runner. Control temp, control top, control the defense and play action passing yields the most explosive plays imo. You don’t need 25+ yard runs to be an effective runner. That was my point.

Move the chains, the big plays will be built off it.
 

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