The Incoming Offseason...Will Be An Emotional Roller Coaster...

[El Guapo]

I do think with CB seemingly being the shiny object folks keep looking to I also believe Tight End could be that piece potentially. I would support a center signing but GB just so rarely builds the OL from outside (other than late round trades or low tier guys) BUT Banks changed that recently...and he may have made them regret it LOL

Good analysis. With Kraft coming back at some point next season, I don't think that we will spend any of our limited cap space on TE. I expect Gutekunst to address this in the draft. The last quarter of this season will be the true barometer. If MLF can make the offense function without a good TE, then Gutekunst will let it roll in 2026. If this proves to be a problem for our offense, he will find a mid-grade TE as you described above. I think that there will be too many other priorities though.

 

[tynimiller]

Good analysis. With Kraft coming back at some point next season, I don't think that we will spend any of our limited cap space on TE. I expect Gutekunst to address this in the draft. The last quarter of this season will be the true barometer. If MLF can make the offense function without a good TE, then Gutekunst will let it roll in 2026. If this proves to be a problem for our offense, he will find a mid-grade TE as you described above. I think that there will be too many other priorities though.

Yeah in all likelihood he could just hold serve with Fitz and resign Whyle to short term if he continues to be serviceable.

 

[PikeBadger]

Yeah in all likelihood he could just hold serve with Fitz and resign Whyle to short term if he continues to be serviceable.

I think he'll be keeping his eyes open for a proven blocking tight end. I think he and LaFleur would rather not have to count on using Kinnard in jumbo packages 15 plays a game.

 

[tynimiller]

I think he'll be keeping his eyes open for a proven blocking tight end. I think he and LaFleur would rather not have to count on using Kinnard in jumbo packages 15 plays a game.

Mo Allie-Cox gets first call if that is the target for an affordable, experienced blocker

 

[El Guapo]

Mo Allie-Cox gets first call if that is the target for an affordable, experienced blocker

Sorry, second call.

Our guy is still playing at 41yrs old, I believe for Denver this season. Nobody would be more experienced or affordable than this

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[tynimiller]

Sorry, second call.

Our guy is still playing at 41yrs old, I believe for Denver this season. Nobody would be more experienced or affordable than this

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

I was never a fan of us letting him go...

If he were to go for one more ride with us I would likely get teared up seeing it.

 

[PikeBadger]

Sorry, second call.

Our guy is still playing at 41yrs old, I believe for Denver this season. Nobody would be more experienced or affordable than this

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

That's truly amazing that a 41 year old can still play at a constant contact position at this level. What a great career that man has had.

 

[tynimiller]

That's truly amazing that a 41 year old can still play at a constant contact position at this level. What a great career that man has had.

Now to be fair he signed in October and hasn't seen much action...

 

[Sanguine camper]

Directly replying to the Gary stuff...You clearly didn't read the entirety of it and took it as a prediction or declartion. You also seem to have discarded the fact the savings line was listed for a cut/release/trade - if Gary isn't in GB for 2026 it would no doubt be a trade.

Why are so many clearly unable to have nuance or hypothetical discussions these days.


I concur we are a contender for sure now and into the future.

380+ pound quick twitch guys.....k, while at it find the unicorn 6'6' 275 pound WR that runs 4.3 too....

You cannot do all you say or imply here though (if correct on this) without crippling void years...keep nixon, don't move Gary, resign Walker, don't let DOubs walk and add a capable veteran CB to that room...in the end we are on the same page, massive contender but it's gonna be a process this off season for sure of letting go of some guys that will suck...

With LVN being a bust, I doubt the Packers would trade Gary. They would have nobody to replace him with. Without a first round pick, it sure wouldn't be a rookie. How much sense would it makes to trade Gary for another pass rusher and good luck finding an affordable pass rusher as a free agent.

Doubs is likely going to sign with another team in the division. My guess it's the Bears.

 

[tynimiller]

With LVN being a bust, I doubt the Packers would trade Gary. They would have nobody to replace him with. Without a first round pick, it sure wouldn't be a rookie. How much sense would it makes to trade Gary for another pass rusher and good luck finding an affordable pass rusher as a free agent.

Doubs is likely going to sign with another team in the division. My guess it's the Bears.

Presenting this as if fact is misguided. Claiming they won't trade Gary is of course erroring to the side of most likely as has been shared...but back to the LVN declaration.

Van Ness down the stretch of 2024 put it together in a visibly and measurable way - anyone watching the film would testify to that. This year Lukas is trending to have a VERY solid year and it was noticeable his absence after week 6. Through Week 6 he was just one pressure behind Gary who many folks swear Gary got off to one of his best seasons yet...more importantly however for LVN was his tackling and line setting against the run that was incredibly elevated over his previous 1.5 seasons.

How one can declare him as such before even the end of his third season, when truly about 11 or 12 weeks of that short time frame he played good and he was injured for a chunk of time this year (even last game very limited snap count).

 

[Sanguine camper]

Presenting this as if fact is misguided. Claiming they won't trade Gary is of course erroring to the side of most likely as has been shared...but back to the LVN declaration.

Van Ness down the stretch of 2024 put it together in a visibly and measurable way - anyone watching the film would testify to that. This year Lukas is trending to have a VERY solid year and it was noticeable his absence after week 6. Through Week 6 he was just one pressure behind Gary who many folks swear Gary got off to one of his best seasons yet...more importantly however for LVN was his tackling and line setting against the run that was incredibly elevated over his previous 1.5 seasons.

How one can declare him as such before even the end of his third season, when truly about 11 or 12 weeks of that short time frame he played good and he was injured for a chunk of time this year (even last game very limited snap count).

One thing that Mike McCarthy was correct about is that most successful players in the NFL make a big second year leap. The thinking is that after 25 games, with the exception of a qb, you can tell what you have. LNV actually regressed in year two. I see very little in the way of impact plays from him. Given that he was a top 15 pick, I think it's fair to call him a bust with his lack of production.

 

[lambeaulambo]

dots on a board...i like to draw on wall.

 

[tynimiller]

One thing that Mike McCarthy was correct about is that most successful players in the NFL make a big second year leap. The thinking is that after 25 games, with the exception of a qb, you can tell what you have. LNV actually regressed in year two. I see very little in the way of impact plays from him. Given that he was a top 15 pick, I think it's fair to call him a bust with his lack of production.

Production. What are you specifically saying he isn’t producing here so I don’t take you out of context.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Production. What are you specifically saying he isn’t producing here so I don’t take you out of context.

In 40 career games Van Ness has 8 1/2 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. Add those two and divide by the number of games gives a production ratio of .63

For pass rushers, you want a production ratio of 1 or above. While there is some subjectivity, players with a production ratio above 1 are generally considered quality starters.

Van Ness is way below that. His production ratio puts him down with back ups and roster bubble types. Unfortunately, he really hasn't increased the trend in his ratio either. At this point, Van Ness has played like a back up, not like a top 15 pick.

 

[tynimiller]

So your statement is purely box score related, gotcha. We will simply never agree on grading a young players progression in that sense. There is GROSSLY more to it than that.

 

[Magooch]

LVN has been an odd one lately. I do think he "does more" than the box score often shows, at least this season. Just simply visually, he has looked to have a way bigger impact this year, and was arguably trending the right way. Now in part the big question is - how much of that is the player developing, and how much of that is just benefitting from having an elite guy like Micah opening things up?

At the same time (and maybe this is an indictment of Gary as well), in what looked like his best stretch of games, he was averaging 1.67 pressures per game and 1.83 total tackles per game. Gary is not generating much more pressures (1.73), but almost double the tackles at 3.36

Anywho I guess it kind of depends on how you define "bust" as usual. Some folks take a bust to mean "not an NFL player," others take it to mean more like "not living up to his draft position"
If it's the former I wholeheartedly disagree. IMO he has developed into a perfectly serviceable player, and is good enough to at least have in your rotation
If it's the latter, that seems to be pointing towards true... Maybe he will be a very late bloomer, but it's hard to imagine that to a degree that he ever looks like the guy you expect with a top-15 pick.

In some sense I think the place a player was drafted can both help and hurt them. Many people will say "He was a top 15 pick" and is always going to get graded against that. Never mind if he develops into a solid albeit not "top 15 pick" type of player. On the other hand, being a top pick tends to give people more patience, too. Like, if he was a day two pick...people would probably say "yeah, that looks about right" and not "we drafted this guy day 2 but he looks like a first rounder!" so it kinda goes both ways.

of course, draft picks ARE finite resources. you're limited in how many you have to invest (obviously) but also in the financial sense. The #13 pick in 2023 came with a total contract value of something like 17m, but at the end of the 1st round is down to sub-10m, and the 13th pick in the second round is half that initial price at ~8m. So in other words, when a player doesn't "live up to their draft position," even if they DO develop into a quality starter, you end up in a situation where you are paying them well above their "expected" pay range...

 

[gopkrs]

What is important to me is that VanNess seemed to be playing better this year. When he was drafted doesn't matter anymore except to evaluate Gute. Does he help our D line or hinder it? If he plays; someone else probably isn't. If he is able to play well; other guys get more rest. That's a decision to be made during the game imho. And you don't have a lot of time to evaluate that. Hopefully Haf makes the right call here.

 

[Magooch]

What is important to me is that VanNess seemed to be playing better this year. When he was drafted doesn't matter anymore except to evaluate Gute. Does he help our D line or hinder it? If he plays; someone else probably isn't. If he is able to play well; other guys get more rest. That's a decision to be made during the game imho. And you don't have a lot of time to evaluate that. Hopefully Haf makes the right call here.

I kind of get that idea, but what I'm saying is that where a player was drafted DOES matter still... practically speaking, for one, his draft position directly impacts his cap hit. This year his cap number is about 4.8m. If he had been drafted at the end of the first rather than the top half, that'd be more like 3.5m or so. If he was a second round pick instead, we'd be looking at more like 2m and change. And those are not HUGE discrepancies (you're talking a max savings of ~2.5m this year) but that stuff adds up all the same. Moreover though it's a matter of opportunity cost. Like above, draft picks are finite resources and you're limited in the number of "shots" you get at landing an impact player. For instance, I know it's been beaten to death, but take the Kevin King/TJ Watt situation. Even if King developed into a solid player, he's always going to be judged against Watt because the "opportunity cost" of that pick makes it as such that picking King came at the expense of picking Watt. Of course this is only really possible to assess in hindsight, but still point being that a player's draft position IMO does indeed still carry consideration long after they are selected

 

[gopkrs]

I kind of get that idea, but what I'm saying is that where a player was drafted DOES matter still... practically speaking, for one, his draft position directly impacts his cap hit. This year his cap number is about 4.8m. If he had been drafted at the end of the first rather than the top half, that'd be more like 3.5m or so. If he was a second round pick instead, we'd be looking at more like 2m and change. And those are not HUGE discrepancies (you're talking a max savings of ~2.5m this year) but that stuff adds up all the same. Moreover though it's a matter of opportunity cost. Like above, draft picks are finite resources and you're limited in the number of "shots" you get at landing an impact player. For instance, I know it's been beaten to death, but take the Kevin King/TJ Watt situation. Even if King developed into a solid player, he's always going to be judged against Watt because the "opportunity cost" of that pick makes it as such that picking King came at the expense of picking Watt. Of course this is only really possible to assess in hindsight, but still point being that a player's draft position IMO does indeed still carry consideration long after they are selected

All of what you say is very true. But it is what it is and what's important is this year now. If VanNess plays well it will help out.

 

[Sanguine camper]

So your statement is purely box score related, gotcha. We will simply never agree on grading a young players progression in that sense. There is GROSSLY more to it than that.

I would rather be in the camp that measures performance even with its limitations. Van Ness hasn't produced compared to most of the solid starters out there. Judging him by other means is going to be subject to even more bias and wishful thinking; the two things that lead to very poor decision- making.

I just don't see enough progress in Van Ness's performance to think he'll get over the hump late in year 3 to finally justify his very high draft status. Hope he's an exception but I'm not convinced it's going to happen.

 

[tynimiller]

I would rather be in the camp that measures performance even with its limitations. Van Ness hasn't produced compared to most of the solid starters out there. Judging him by other means is going to be subject to even more bias and wishful thinking; the two things that lead to very poor decision- making.

I just don't see enough progress in Van Ness's performance to think he'll get over the hump late in year 3 to finally justify his very high draft status. Hope he's an exception but I'm not convinced it's going to happen.

He's playing like an NFL starter and has the diversity of slipping inside when we want Parsons and Gary on edge - not a simple feat.

Measure performance - that's not JUST the sack column. I assume you think Gary sucks this year as well, and if not sucks - think of him holding the same value as LVN...before LVN got injured LVN had only one less pressure than Gary.

 

[tynimiller]

I kind of get that idea, but what I'm saying is that where a player was drafted DOES matter still... practically speaking, for one, his draft position directly impacts his cap hit. This year his cap number is about 4.8m. If he had been drafted at the end of the first rather than the top half, that'd be more like 3.5m or so. If he was a second round pick instead, we'd be looking at more like 2m and change. And those are not HUGE discrepancies (you're talking a max savings of ~2.5m this year) but that stuff adds up all the same. Moreover though it's a matter of opportunity cost. Like above, draft picks are finite resources and you're limited in the number of "shots" you get at landing an impact player. For instance, I know it's been beaten to death, but take the Kevin King/TJ Watt situation. Even if King developed into a solid player, he's always going to be judged against Watt because the "opportunity cost" of that pick makes it as such that picking King came at the expense of picking Watt. Of course this is only really possible to assess in hindsight, but still point being that a player's draft position IMO does indeed still carry consideration long after they are selected

For every single player but a couple a year HINDSIGHT game can be played.

The cost of a pick is the only issue, but folks OVER EXPECT picks by their round - and it will never not be the case. Some fans behave as if Day1 picks should be guaranteed all pros by the end of their second year LOL (NOT SAYING you or anyone specifically here).

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Production. What are you specifically saying he isn’t producing here so I don’t take you out of context.

Not trying to hijack or attack here, but for LVN being a 1st...he should be our 2nd or 3rd best option at the 2 EDGE positions. He sits 4th based on the eye test and #3 is a 5th rounder. Production to me means, do I notice you positively when you're on the field? With LVN the answer is at times yes...with the 3 I have graded above him the answer is YES.

 

[tynimiller]

Not trying to hijack or attack here, but for LVN being a 1st...he should be our 2nd or 3rd best option at the 2 EDGE positions. He sits 4th based on the eye test and #3 is a 5th rounder. Production to me means, do I notice you positively when you're on the field? With LVN the answer is at times yes...with the 3 I have graded above him the answer is YES.

Sorry he is not our fourth edge.

 

[RicFlairoftheNFL]

Sorry he is not our fourth edge.

Would you agree he's behind Enagbare at least?