Season Predictions on Productions

[tynimiller]

Not sure why I do it but each year I like to sit down and attempt my hand at being prophetic with production predictions for our beloved Packers. Feel free to join me in the attempt, and we can both drink in misery when we fail miserably at predicitons.

Primarily looking at skilled positions -

QB
Aaron Rodgers - 411 Completions on 552 attempts for 4600 yards & 50 TDs
Jordan Love - 11 completions on 17 attempts for 87 yards & 0 TDs in scrub time

I think there is a solid chance with arguably the most motivated Rodgers we've ever seen he runs a serious streak and has us in a position to possibly sit him the final week or possibly final two so numbers could shift a touch.

RB
Aaron Jones - 227 rushing attempts for 1185 yards, 9 TDs / 50 catches for 400 yards, 3 TDs
AJ Dillon - 137 rushing attempts for 700 yards, 4 TDs / 17 catches for 225 yards, 1 TD
Kylin Hill - 25 attempts for 115 yards, 1 TD / 11 Catches for 100 yards, 1 TD

That means the group produces around 2,000 yards rushing and around 800 yards receiving - this is about 300 yards more than last year's RB (which included Ervin 67 yards) but we have one more game and we have a better backfield I feel rushing wise this year.
This group excites me, it is always a risk with Jones he misses some time, but this group seems like it could be VERY productive.

TE
Robert Tonyan - 60 receptions for 650 yards and 9 TDs
Marcedes Lewis BIG DAAAAAAWG - 13 receptions for 115 yards, 2 TDs
Josiah Deguara - 25 receptions for 225 yards, 2 TDs
Dominique Dafney - 5 Receptions 75 yards, 1 TD

Tonyan continues being SOLID, Big Dawg is a stud blocker and dependable hands (albeit connected to slow body) - Deguara is the X-Factor and his production might cause Tonyan to drop a small amount honestly.

WR
Davante Adams - 132 receptions for 1500 yards and 15 TDs
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - 48 receptions for 800 yards and 8 TDs
Randall Cobb - 45 receptions for 500 yards and 4 TDs
Allen Lazard - 35 receptions for 400 yards and 4 TDs
Amari Rodgers - 17 receptions for 200 yards and 2 TDs
Malik Taylor - 12 receptions for 165 yards and 1 TD

Injuries for sure will impact this but wholly healthy I see something like this playing out. MVS is going to have a drop % less than 9 (was 11.1% last year - for reference Lazard was even over 10%) and a "break out year" but there is only so high he can go given all the excellent weapons of this offense.


Other position notes - Newman starts and holds onto his starting guard position. Jenkins has one rough game at LT but otherwise shines at LT while Bahk is out. The young OL goes through some growing pains but by about Week 8 has really hit on all cylinders and the protection afforded to Rodgers is great.

Defensively I believe King will yet again and rightfully saw see a crazy amount more targets than his coutnerpart opposite in Jaire (you'd be a fool to not do this if the opposing coach). However, I actually believe we have a bit of a 2019 resurgence from King breaking double digits in PDs, 4 or more INTs. This in the long term makes Stokes grow much better into what we need him to be, albeit maybe not faster.

Gary is going to overtake Preston for snaps or at MINIMUM equal snaps - the time has come, Gary's break out year is this season. Keke continues to provide outstanding DL pressure and hits half dozen sacks....Clark with more depth behind him (especially towards end of the year when Slaton is providing more rest to him) returns to his 2018/2019 form and also breaks half dozen sacks but most importantly just becomes that inside WRECKER he is.

Gary was the first I'm going to say Darnell Savage just becomes a turnover beast this season. I'm going to predict 6 INTs and I think he will be a part of at least 2 fumbles (either making or recovering).

***I will say in receiving yards something has to give most likely as I sense the overall figures are high at 5,355 - BUT the issue there is assuming full health from everyone - just simply NOT going to happen.

 

[Poppa San]

Who's throwing the 3 TD passes that Rodger's isn't? Punter? HB option?

 

[tynimiller]

Who's throwing the 3 TD passes that Rodger's isn't? Punter? HB option?

Same as with the yardage predictions, things will vary and injuries will be main reason. Doubt we end up with the 5355 receiving yards that are listed either.

 

[Poppa San]

I like the HB option. GB rarely does trick plays like that. Even jet sweep wasn't done for the longest time.

 

[tynimiller]

With three games left was curious how good or bad I was doing on a few main guys - (my guesses bolded in parenthesis):

Aaron Rodgers on pace for around 4234 yards (4600) 36 TDs (50) on 363 (411) completions to 535 (552) attempts.
Aaron Jones on pace for around 800 yards (1185) rushing and 412 yards (400) receiving with overall 12 touchdowns (12)
AJ Dillon on pace for 775 yards (700) rushing and 332 yards (225) receiving with overall 6 touchdowns (5)
Davante Adams on pace for 1515 yards (1500) receiving on 117 (132) receptions with overall 10 touchdowns (15)

Not too shabby on the big four if I say so myself. If Jones hadn't been injured a bit I think I may have been even closer on the RBs

 

[tynimiller]

Well regular season has come to a close...here is the comparisons of predicted vs what happened. Injuries played a factor for a few...but honestly not crazy bad. I've inserted in bold and inside parentheses:

QB
Aaron Rodgers - (366)411 Completions on (531)552 attempts for (4,115)4600 yards & (37)50 TDs
Jordan Love - (36)11 completions on (62)17 attempts for (411)87 yards & (2)0 TDs in scrub time

RB
Aaron Jones - (171)227 rushing attempts for (799)1185 yards, (5)9 TDs / (52)50 catches for (391)400 yards, (6)3 TDs *interesting bit YPC predicted was 5.22 vs 4.67 actual
AJ Dillon - (187)137 rushing attempts for (803)700 yards, (5)4 TDs / (34)17 catches for (313)225 yards, (2)1 TD
Kylin Hill - (10)25 attempts for (24)115 yards, (0)1 TD / (1)11 Catches for (5)100 yards, (0)1 TD
Patrick Taylor - 23 attempts for 89 yards, 1 TD / 2 catches for 3 yards, 0 TD
*Our two big dogs I predicted would have 364 carries for 1,885 yards and 13 TDs vs we had 358 carries for 1,602 yards and 10 TDs. Yards predicted they'd chip in through the air was 625 vs 704 as well. - I chalk that up as quite solid prediction.

TE
Robert Tonyan - (18)60 receptions for (204)650 yards and (2)9 TDs
Marcedes Lewis BIG DAAAAAAWG - (23)13 receptions for (214)115 yards, (0)2 TDs
Josiah Deguara - (25)25 receptions for (245)225 yards, (2)2 TDs I'D SAY I NAILED THIS ONE!
Dominique Dafney - (2)5 Receptions (34)75 yards, (0)1 TD
Tyler Davis - 4 receptions for 35 yards, 0 TD

WR
Davante Adams - (123)132 receptions for (1,553)1500 yards and (11)15 TDs DID QUITE SOLID HERE TOO
Marquez Valdes-Scantling - (26)48 receptions for (430)800 yards and (3)8 TDs *if healthy he was pacing to do very close to what I predicted
Randall Cobb - (28)45 receptions for (375)500 yards and (5)4 TDs
Allen Lazard - (40)35 receptions for (513)400 yards and (8)4 TDs
Amari Rodgers - (4)17 receptions for (45)200 yards and (0)2 TDs
Malik Taylor - (3)12 receptions for (14)165 yards and (0)1 TD

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Good predictions.....

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[tynimiller]

Good predictions.....

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It's quite clear I like many others envisioned more yards from Rodgers and the passing game, but to be fair his efficiency was still freaking amazing.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's quite clear I like many others envisioned more yards from Rodgers and the passing game, but to be fair his efficiency was still freaking amazing.

Well Rodgers did miss 1 1/2 games...so there is that.

I also think we all expected more out of Amari, didn't envision Tonyan going down and MVS only having catches in 9 games, 2 of them being just 1 catch games.

I also think Dillon had a great year, enough so that the Packers could lean on him in the second half of games. Basically, Rodgers didn't have to throw nearly as much on 3rd downs to keep drives going.

 

[tynimiller]

For sure on Rodgers and Amari was a tough one for me to truly guess on - with Cobb signing I nearly didn't know if he would even be gameday active if honest. However, as I've said my biggest issue isn't in his lack of production but his apparent lack of confidence or being comfortable on the field appear to be lacking which did shock me.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am hopeful that Amari is not a bust, especially given what our WR room could potentially look like come March.

I wasn't very impressed by him, but like many of the successful Packer WR's in the past, he just may need a few seasons to figure it all out.

We won't have a lot or maybe any $$ to spend in Free Agency, so while Gute might try to find a bargain or 2 there, if we go into the draft with just Lazard, Amari and a few other non-starters, I expect WR to be a position of GREAT need.

 

[tynimiller]

I am hopeful that Amari is not a bust, especially given what our WR room could potentially look like come March.

I wasn't very impressed by him, but like many of the successful Packer WR's in the past, he just may need a few seasons to figure it all out.

We won't have a lot or maybe any $$ to spend in Free Agency, so while Gute might try to find a bargain or 2 there, if we go into the draft with just Lazard, Amari and a few other non-starters, I expect WR to be a position of GREAT need.

Yeah, Lazard is for sure back given FA status being an RFA and Amari for sure is here. Lot of change is coming with Adams and MVS possibly getting bigger offers elsewhere than we can or desire to do, plus Cobb's contract being a level that is a cut or rework - you cannot pay him as it is now.

I'd say even if we retain one of those three (Cobb, Adams and MVS) you will see GB add a WR before the sun sets on Day 2 and possibly could be the year you see us grab one even Day 1.

 

[Poppa San]

add a WR before the sun sets on Day 2

Psst .. the draft on day 2 starts near sunset. 7pm Eastern last year. It's in Vegas so you may technically be correct yet.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I also think Dillon had a great year, enough so that the Packers could lean on him in the second half of games. Basically, Rodgers didn't have to throw nearly as much on 3rd downs to keep drives going.

Rodgers actually attempted exactly as many throws (135) on third down this season as he did in 2020.

Yeah, Lazard is for sure back given FA status being an RFA and Amari for sure is here.

The Packers would need to put a second round tender on Lazard to assure he will be around next season. At $4 million I'm not convinced that's a given considering the cap situation the team is in.

 

[Voyageur]

I also think Dillon had a great year, enough so that the Packers could lean on him in the second half of games. Basically, Rodgers didn't have to throw nearly as much on 3rd downs to keep drives going.

Rodgers actually attempted exactly as many throws (135) on third down this season as he did in 2020.

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This is a stat that always puzzled me. How many of those passes were thrown because they had no confidence in being able to get a first down with a run? How many of them came in the 2 minute drill, where running is usually not an option? How many of them were because the Packers needed to move the ball to score to stay in a game? How many of them are plays changed at the line of scrimmage, because of what Rodgers sees in the defense? How many of them were just simply plays the coach wanted to call because he just... wanted to call it?

I don't think it would be possible to actually figure this out 100% to be honest. The numbers don't lie, but the perception we have might, depending on how we see it in our own minds.

Enjoy the stats you bring up Cap. They give us different perspectives.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Rodgers actually attempted exactly as many throws (135) on third down this season as he did in 2020.

Way to ruin the eye test with facts! I'll blame Tynimiller's predictions for ******** with my brain. Actually, a lot of Rodgers stats this season are very similar to last. TD's a big exception (48 in 2020 and only 37 in 2021).

 

[tynimiller]

Way to ruin the eye test with facts! I'll blame Tynimiller's predictions for ******** with my brain. Actually, a lot of Rodgers stats this season are very similar to last. TD's a big exception (48 in 2020 and only 37 in 2021).

LOL I cannot find it now but I posted yesterday our pass tendencies on each down this year and we are middle of the road overall for pass % at 58%, however on third down we had like the fourth highest pass percentage I believe. I didn't analyze to see if our average distance to get a first is higher and is a factor but it was astonishing how high we ranked on third down but then on first down we were near the bottom - which is clearly evidenced by the fact our RBs are deadly!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I didn't analyze to see if our average distance to get a first is higher and is a factor but it was astonishing how high we ranked on third down but then on first down we were near the bottom - which is clearly evidenced by the fact our RBs are deadly!

The Packers average distance to go on third down was 6.5 yards this season. Only four teams in the league had a lower number than that.

 

[Voyageur]

The Packers average distance to go on third down was 6.5 yards this season. Only four teams in the league had a lower number than that.

Wow! Thank you! This does point out a pretty good reason to throw the ball on 3rd down. Looking at that much yardage to gain the first down, and running plays only averaging about 5 yards a carry, and passes somewhere in the 7(?) yards per play, we can see which would be more apt to gain that first down.

The more I think about that stat, the more I see it's importance. It doesn't mean we're getting 3.5 yards over the first two downs, it simply means we have 6.5 left to get a first down. We could arrive at that figure by only gaining 3.5 yards of the 10 we needed, but it's not that simple. Penalties, sacks, tackles for loss on both pass and running plays, all add to the mix. Defensive penalties could shorten that distance, but it would not be as pronounced as offensive penalties, simply because so many defensive penalties carry with them an automatic first down.

 

[tynimiller]

The Packers average distance to go on third down was 6.5 yards this season. Only four teams in the league had a lower number than that.

That confirms suspicion of why such a high passing percentage on third down....well that and we have flipping Aaron Rodgers tossing the ball.