Reshape of Packers tight end group coming soon

[thequick12]

There's a small chance that none of the 4 tight ends currently on the 53 man roster will be with the team in 2019. There's a very good chance that at least 2 of the 4 are gone. Lance Kendricks and Mercedes Lewis are both free agents after the season and I don't expect either will be back. As I see nothing either brings to the team going forward. Then you have Jimmy Graham 49 catches 581 yards and 2 tds 11.9 yards a catch. He hasn't been everything everyone hoped for but he certainly hasn't been martellus Bennett either, playing thru a broken thumb. In fact his final stat line is still likely to end up as the 3rd best of all time for a Packers te. And he still has an outside chance at making 13 receptions over the final 2 games to break Finley's single season te receptions record. If he does that he'd also likely come close to getting 187 yards and besting Finley's high water yardage mark as well. But I doubt he gets 13 so we'll call it 3rd best. A lot of people want to cut him before his $5 m roster bonus in March. Which is in my mind a ridiculous proposal. It comes with 7m in dead money. It makes much more sense to give graham one more season with Rodgers and then revaulate after 2019. If he plays poorly let him go and eat around only 3.5 m in dead money. But my money is on graham having an even better season in 2019 than he did in 2018. And if he does that he likely breaks all the packers single season receiving records.
So that leaves us with tonyon I think he's shown enough to warrant a spot on the 53 in 2019. He looks like he could be a definite weapon for Aaron Rodgers.
Assuming we keep graham and tonyon I'd still love to see gute take a te as high as the 2nd round. A guy like Irv Smith Jr. I wouldn't even be against a scenario where the Packers took the Alabama te in round 2 and tj hockenson in the 3rd round. That would turn the te position into a real strength going forward. You'd have a diverse group of players with graham, tonyon, Smith, and hockenson as your 4 tes on the 53. And I think each could contribute significantly and in different ways. Graham is graham. Tonyon can stretch the seams and is an athletic beast as is Smith Jr. Then in hockenson you have more of the traditional NFL te. It would be a very promising group.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Normally, I would say the Packers would be better off keeping the outsized contract because the savings to be had by cutting the player wouldn't allow the team to find someone better...in Graham's case I'm not real sure that's true.

 

[thequick12]

Normally, I would say the Packers would be better off keeping the outsized contract because the savings to be had by cutting the player wouldn't allow the team to find someone better...in Graham's case I'm not real sure that's true.

Who would you sign I honestly haven't looked at the 2019 free agents yet?

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

At the risk of being ripped apart by the mob, how we can we expect Graham to catch uncatchable passes ??? I'd say give him a chance to prove his worth to the team otherwise we have just wasted money on his contract like Bennett was. JMHO

 

[Mondio]

I’m leaning towards him staying, but it’s not a certainty.

 

[Heyjoe4]

At the risk of being ripped apart by the mob, how we can we expect Graham to catch uncatchable passes ??? I'd say give him a chance to prove his worth to the team otherwise we have just wasted money on his contract like Bennett was. JMHO

I think Graham deserves a second year for the reasons you mention. I wouldn’t mind spending a 2nd round pick on a TE, depending on the depth of the class. I’d be surprised if your comment gets you ripped apart by the mob, but stranger things have happened. I liked Tonyan in the pre-season and I hope he gets more targets in the last two games. Finally, I give Graham credit for playing with a broken thumb and that he can even catch a football in that circumstance. And yeah, it would help if the passes were a wee bit more accurate. Ah well, that’s another subject.

 

[Zartan]

Keep him one more season. Part of it is on Rodgers throwing bricks at him.

 

[Packer96]

Hockenson won't be there in the third unless he gets hurt in the bowl game.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I’m leaning towards him staying, but it’s not a certainty.

Yeah, $5.3 mil in cap savings is kinda borderline.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Who would you sign I honestly haven't looked at the 2019 free agents yet?

Go here https://overthecap.com/position/tight-end/ and check the right hand column. 2019 UDFA's, of course. You might find somebody in the 2019 RFA category, but that gets problematic.

 

[Dantés]

There's no way I cut Graham if it's up to me, and I didn't even want him in the first place. But he is not close to being a big enough bum to warrant all that dead money. It's also true, as others have mentioned, that Rodgers and the whole offense has struggled. He didn't just suddenly cease to be a good red zone weapon.

They should let Lewis and Kendricks walk for sure. I'd like to see them sign a guy and draft a guy. A signee who can block would be helpful and most likely economical-- Jesse James or Nick Boyle for example. The signee could then compete with Tonyan as the future receiving TE.

 

[Jerellh528]

It’s not that Rodgers wasn’t throwing him good balls. It’s Graham not maximizing his opportunities, he doesn’t get open or spread the defense the way I expected nor was he a big red zone weapon like we all thought. Adams sure didn’t have a problem catching Rodgers passes.

But I’d give him another year for lack of a better option and the hope that maybe graham can have some more success in a different offensive structure under a new HC. I’d also keep Tonyan and then draft one.

 

[Dantés]

Graham failed at times to make plays on catchable balls. Rodgers at times failed to deliver catchable balls. The whole offense has been mess virtually all season. It's not one thing.

 

[HardRightEdge]

There's no way I cut Graham if it's up to me, and I didn't even want him in the first place. But he is not close to being a big enough bum to warrant all that dead money. It's also true, as others have mentioned, that Rodgers and the whole offense has struggled. He didn't just suddenly cease to be a good red zone weapon.

They should let Lewis and Kendricks walk for sure. I'd like to see them sign a guy and draft a guy. A signee who can block would be helpful and most likely economical-- Jesse James or Nick Boyle for example. The signee could then compete with Tonyan as the future receiving TE.

Dead money isn't the real issue, though. It's a $7.3 mil sunk cost whether he stays or goes. One could say he's not worth his $12.7 mil 2019 cap number, but that's not the issue either at this juncture.

The way to assess the situation is relative to the $5.3 mil cap savings if he is released. Further, the decision needs to be made before the 5th. day of the league year otherwise his $5 mil roster bonus comes due which would wipe out the cap savings meaning he'd be penned in as the starting TE in 2019 at that point. So, there's 5 days of free agency to find a replacement, lock him in with the roster bonus, or cut him and roll the dice on a draft replacement.

Graham pros:

• He's a resonably productive receiver for $5.3 mil
• He still draws chips and a fair amount of attention in the middle of the field, pluses that do not show up in the stat sheet
• Year 2 might yield better Rodgers chemistry
• A new HC/OC might find ways to utilize him better
• There's nobody on the roster now that can be relied upon to replace that production; Tonyan looks promising but is a only a speculation at this point; preseason is not money football
• The FA class looks thin, old guys and underwhelming guys and unproven guys. Please, not Eifert.
• In a "win now" approach keeping Graham would be the conservative thing to do
• Presumably the thumb will be healed and he's been a durable player other than the ruptured patella tendon that ended his 2015 season which he seemed to be mostly past in 2016

Graham cons:

• He can't block
• There has been some decline in athleticism
• He's not a particularly savvy route runner which becomes an increasing liability if the athleticism declines further
• In a rebuilding program, the cap savings would be better spent elsewhere; his cap savings goes to $8 mil in 2020 so next season is likely his last with the Packers

I don't usually bother looking at FA lists or college tape this early, but I did this time looking at the two Iowa guys to illustrate a point. Hypothetically, lets say the Packers took Hockerson in the second round. The guy is a polished football player like a lot of Iowa guys coming out. We don't know his 40 time yet but he looks pretty fast, maybe 4.6. He looks like he has decent hands, can make some contested catches, and the kid can block. I don't think you'd lose much, if anything, with this guy on a cheap rookie contract. Then the $5 mil that is saved by cutting Graham can go into the FA kitty.

The problem is the signing bonus timing and a thin FA group which leaves the uncertainties of the draft.

I believe the Packers will keep him. Personally, I prefer building to 2020. If it is a deep TE class, which I'm not prepared to discuss, then the argument leans the other way.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Graham failed at times to make plays on catchable balls. Rodgers at times failed to deliver catchable balls. The whole offense has been mess virtually all season. It's not one thing.

And because it is not one thing, but many things, McCarthy was fired. If anybody thinks that was just about a disconnect with Rodgers they are barking up the wrong tree.

 

[swhitset]

At the risk of being ripped apart by the mob, how we can we expect Graham to catch uncatchable passes ??? I'd say give him a chance to prove his worth to the team otherwise we have just wasted money on his contract like Bennett was. JMHO

I won’t rip you apart ... I too have been critical of Rodgers... but I do think you may be overstating his failures lol.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

I won’t rip you apart ... I too have been critical of Rodgers... but I do think you may be overstating his failures lol.

Thank you, and a Merry Christmas to you. and I KNOW you're right

 

[longtimefan]

I belive Graham will be back

 

[Poppa San]

Who would you sign I honestly haven't looked at the 2019 free agents yet?

From the OTC cite listed above. Looks like Bears and Cards will both need to sign or draft a few TEs as they both have 3 FAs
Erik Swoope Saints UFA
Geoff Swaim Cowboys UFA
A.J. Derby Dolphins UFA
Nick Boyle Ravens UFA
James O’Shaughnessy Jaguars UFA
Jesse James Steelers UFA
CJ Uzomah Bengals UFA
Scott Simonson Giants UFA
Blake Bell Jaguars UFA
Jeff Heuerman Broncos UFA
Tyler Kroft Bengals UFA
Zach Miller Bears UFA
Richard Rodgers Eagles UFA
John Phillips Cardinals UFA
Daniel Brown Bears UFA
Luke Stocker Titans UFA
Logan Paulsen Falcons UFA
Maxx Williams Ravens UFA
MarQueis Gray Dolphins UFA
Levine Toilolo Lions UFA
Demetrius Harris Chiefs UFA
Michael Hoomanawanui Saints UFA
Neal Sterling Jets UFA
Ben Watson Saints UFA
Lance Kendricks Packers UFA
Marcedes Lewis Packers UFA
Josh Hill Saints UFA
Luke Willson Lions UFA
Antonio Gates Chargers UFA
Jared Cook Raiders UFA
Tyler Eifert Bengals UFA
Vince Mayle Chargers RFA
Jerell Adams Texans RFA
Gabe Holmes Cardinals RFA
Hakeem Valles Giants RFA
Will Tye Eagles RFA
Je’Ron Hamm Colts RFA
Stephen Anderson Patriots RFA
Ross Travis Colts RFA
Jerome Cunningham Lions RFA
Ben Braunecker Bears RFA
Matt Lengel Bengals RFA
Xavier Grimble Steelers RFA
Chris Manhertz Panthers RFA
Eric Tomlinson Jets RFA
Nick O’Leary Dolphins RFA
Orson Charles Browns RFA
Logan Thomas Bills RFA

 

[thequick12]

From the OTC cite listed above. Looks like Bears and Cards will both need to sign or draft a few TEs as they both have 3 FAs
Erik Swoope Saints UFA
Geoff Swaim Cowboys UFA
A.J. Derby Dolphins UFA
Nick Boyle Ravens UFA
James O’Shaughnessy Jaguars UFA
Jesse James Steelers UFA
CJ Uzomah Bengals UFA
Scott Simonson Giants UFA
Blake Bell Jaguars UFA
Jeff Heuerman Broncos UFA
Tyler Kroft Bengals UFA
Zach Miller Bears UFA
Richard Rodgers Eagles UFA
John Phillips Cardinals UFA
Daniel Brown Bears UFA
Luke Stocker Titans UFA
Logan Paulsen Falcons UFA
Maxx Williams Ravens UFA
MarQueis Gray Dolphins UFA
Levine Toilolo Lions UFA
Demetrius Harris Chiefs UFA
Michael Hoomanawanui Saints UFA
Neal Sterling Jets UFA
Ben Watson Saints UFA
Lance Kendricks Packers UFA
Marcedes Lewis Packers UFA
Josh Hill Saints UFA
Luke Willson Lions UFA
Antonio Gates Chargers UFA
Jared Cook Raiders UFA
Tyler Eifert Bengals UFA
Vince Mayle Chargers RFA
Jerell Adams Texans RFA
Gabe Holmes Cardinals RFA
Hakeem Valles Giants RFA
Will Tye Eagles RFA
Je’Ron Hamm Colts RFA
Stephen Anderson Patriots RFA
Ross Travis Colts RFA
Jerome Cunningham Lions RFA
Ben Braunecker Bears RFA
Matt Lengel Bengals RFA
Xavier Grimble Steelers RFA
Chris Manhertz Panthers RFA
Eric Tomlinson Jets RFA
Nick O’Leary Dolphins RFA
Orson Charles Browns RFA
Logan Thomas Bills RFA

The only guy I see on that list you might rather have than graham is a familiar name, Jared Cook.
I guess I wouldn't mind having cook and graham for a season coupled with tonyon and a draft pick like Hockenson or Irv Smith jr.
Cook 63 for 848 and 6 tds 13.5 yards per catch is likely to get a similar contract to his last one. So coincidentally somewhere around $5.3 million per year the exact amount that can be saved by cutting graham.
So like I said I wouldn't mind having both that would be my first preference although unlikely they devote that much cap space to the position. So I guess the question is would you rather cut graham and sign cook at 5.3 m per with the money you save on Graham? And go into 2019 with cook and tonyon and a couple draft picks. Idk I'm kinda torn on this which is probably why I say go with both and have the meanest two te set in the league

 

[HardRightEdge]

The only guy I see on that list you might rather have than graham is a familiar name, Jared Cook.
I guess I wouldn't mind having cook and graham for a season coupled with tonyon and a draft pick like Hockenson or Irv Smith jr.
Cook 63 for 848 and 6 tds 13.5 yards per catch is likely to get a similar contract to his last one. So coincidentally somewhere around $5.3 million per year the exact amount that can be saved by cutting graham.
So like I said I wouldn't mind having both that would be my first preference although unlikely they devote that much cap space to the position. So I guess the question is would you rather cut graham and sign cook at 5.3 m per with the money you save on Graham? And go into 2019 with cook and tonyon and a couple draft picks. Idk I'm kinda torn on this which is probably why I say go with both and have the meanest two te set in the league

I would rule out the Packers bringing back Cook, with or without Graham. But if by chance they did, I would consider that a bad idea.

Without Graham, it's just treading water and if the Packers didn't like Cook enough to pay him then they're not going to do an about face. And that would be admitting two mistakes-- dropping Cook and signing Graham. And who wants to go backward and not forward?

With Graham, it is as you said, too much cap allocated to the position, with 10 and 11 year vets no less, compounded with draft picks in your scenario. As for the "the meanest two te set in the league", that's wishful thinking. Under what scenarios do these guys get on the field at the same time? Not many.

It's not like TE is the only priority, or even among the highest priorities. Even within the receiver group I'd put slot above TE on the priority list. Even if it is Cobb, which I doubt, that's still money out of the FA kitty. It's always easy to isolate one position and envision loading it up if aging vets can be considered "loading" . You have to look at the total picture in allocating limited resources.

 

[thequick12]

I would rule out the Packers bringing back Cook, with or without Graham.

As for the "the meanest two te set in the league", that's wishful thinking. Under what scenarios do these guys get on the field at the same time? Not many.

It's not like TE is the only priority, or even among the highest priorities. Even within the receiver group I'd put slot above TE on the priority list.

I don't think there's any bad blood between the organization and cook. And if there is it's likely on cooks side and I doubt it's enough for him to forgo another chance at playing with Rodgers. I think that situation amounted to the Packers fo thinking martellus Bennett was an upgrade over cook.
If you have both those guys it's for one reason and that's you're gonna run a lot and I mean a lot of 2 te sets and use graham as essentially a big slot. But like you said it's not gonna happen. It's cook or graham and the cap number stays the same for the te group essentially.
I agree te is not the only need but I disagree that it's not as big a need as slot. You have a few guys who can play in slot, graham and better than that EQ. What is truly missing in this offense is that seam splitting te. Rodgers has been at his best when Jermichael Finley was at his.

 

[sschind]

Look at it this way. If we needed a starting TE and Graham was on this list would you offer him a contract worth 5.3 million for 1 year. I think the answer would be yes. From a cap situation that's what it will cost us to keep him. The rest of the 12 million we account for whether he is here or not. Keep Graham and Tonyan sign a blocking TE and draft one to replace Graham after next year if you feel you need 4. Tonyan isn't going to step in as our #1 and the only ones on the list I see as comparable to Graham are Eifert and Cook and they are likely going to get at least as much as it will cost us to keep Graham. Cutting Graham and bring one in for 5.3 million would be an option but keeping him and bringing one of them in for the same amount of money is probably not the right thing to do.

The Bears and Cards may have 3 FAs but they also have their starters in place so they are not going to be looking for that. They will be looking for blockers and backups

 

[HardRightEdge]

I don't think there's any bad blood between the organization and cook. And if there is it's likely on cooks side and I doubt it's enough for him to forgo another chance at playing with Rodgers. I think that situation amounted to the Packers fo thinking martellus Bennett was an upgrade over cook.
If you have both those guys it's for one reason and that's you're gonna run a lot and I mean a lot of 2 te sets and use graham as essentially a big slot. But like you said it's not gonna happen. It's cook or graham and the cap number stays the same for the te group essentially.
I agree te is not the only need but I disagree that it's not as big a need as slot. You have a few guys who can play in slot, graham and better than that EQ. What is truly missing in this offense is that seam splitting te. Rodgers has been at his best when Jermichael Finley was at his.

I would not consider EQ to be any answer at all at slot. He's not sudden enough and he's not physical enough, strikes 1 and 2, in running the staple short routes through the middle. Adams can't be two places at once. As discussed elsewhere, the Packers have been accumulating big WRs and WR/TE hybrids under Gutekunst. They may be envisioning a big slot with positional flexibility to move around inside and outside. The fact they had interest in Jordan Matthews back in April, a guy with that positional flexibility, suggests it is a continuing theme. All of the current candidates for big slot, and there are many, are unproven. It's a numbers game at this point.

A TE splitting the seam only works if there's a seam to split. And what that entails is safeties respecting the perimeter. As it stands, Graham frequently draws a crowd running those routes, which is a plus even if those connections are not made with any regularity. While the Rodgers-Graham mind meld has not been the best, the answer to opening seam routes is a function of having a receiver group draw sufficient safety respect.

I think MVS has upside; the Rodgers-MVS connection needs calibration. Rodgers went from underthrowing him early and overthowing him recently. He is the potential deep threat that has been missing since Nelson blew his knee. We see separation downfield even if the connections have frequently been a bit off. It's that other spot, the slot, that has been wanting with Cobb not very productive and repeatedly injured. What is he up to now? 4 concussions? Find a legit threat out of the slot and then Graham or ? will find more opportunities in the middle of the field.

 

[HardRightEdge]

...the only ones on the list I see as comparable to Graham are Eifert and Cook and they are likely going to get at least as much as it will cost us to keep Graham.

Regardless of the money, I consider Eifert a non-starter. He's the Nick Perry of TE's, actually worse. In his 6 seasons, his games played are 15, 1, 13, 8, 2 and 4 in that order. The guy just cannot stay healthy.

I don't think there's any bad blood between the organization and cook.

I have no idea if there is or there isn't bad blood, but that's not the point. Cook was not very productive in Green Bay, less than Graham. And if you look at his career record, he's been a solid but not very impactful player. That he's having his best season in year 10 is likely circumstantial. Carr is a dinker, dunker and check-downer from way back with an underwhelming set of other weapons this season. To expect Cook to repeat his career season is a big stretch. Regressing to the mean is the more likely scenario. Cooks a better blocker than Graham; Graham is a more respected receiving threat. There really isn't any reason to make a swap, and certainly not as an add on.

If Cook played to his career average of 600 yds and 3 TDs this season, which is the more likely productivity next season, I don't think we'd be having this discussion.