Post-draft cuts, and potential GB pick ups

[HardRightEdge]

Last year was easy to find, so we can start there. Were any of the better kickers on the list undrafted rookies? http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

I don't care if they're UDFAs or drafted kickers...a good one is hard to find.

 

[HardRightEdge]

To send this message resign Kuhn for less and still resonate same storyline.

Being a "Packer guy" is a fairly low common denominator. Being one of those guys might provide the edge in a cut-or-go decision with marginal vets or developmental players. Let's face it...high picks, "who else ya got" solid players, and certainly stars fall into the "nobody's perfect" or benefit-of-the-doubt categories.

In the case of Crosby, being a "Packer guy" may have come into play to some degree in the term and amount of the contract, but in the final analysis the key factor is risk aversion, the risk being below par performance from an unproven rookie. There's nobody behind the kicker on the bench, and once the season starts FA pickings get awfully slim. If a rookie blows up, you're holding your d*ck.

 

[tynimiller]

Being a "Packer guy" is a fairly low common denominator. Being one of those guys might provide the edge in a cut-or-go decision with marginal vets or developmental players. Let's face it...high picks, "who else ya got" solid players, and certainly stars fall into the "nobody's perfect" or benefit-of-the-doubt categories.

In the case of Crosby, being a "Packer guy" may have come into play to some degree in the term and amount of the contract, but in the final analysis the key factor is risk aversion, the risk being below par performance from an unproven rookie. There's nobody behind the kicker on the bench, and once the season starts FA pickings get awfully slim. If a rookie blows up, you're holding your d*ck.

Just go for two if he blows up.....haha!

 

[Mondio]

almost a quarter of the games are 3 points or less these days, I'd rather not be left holding my

To send this message resign Kuhn for less and still resonate same storyline.

Kickers are still very valuable, FB's are not. FB's are a quickly disappearing dinosaur in today's NFL offense. Kuhn has lived longer here than he would in most other places. If we Cut Mason today, regardless of salary, he'd be picked up tomorrow. Kuhn has been available for quite some time and nobody has signed him. I'm not advocating giving guys jobs and money just because, that's not the right message either nor what I was getting at.

 

[adambr2]

I don't care if they're UDFAs or drafted kickers...a good one is hard to find.

Depends what your definition of a good one is I guess...if you're referring to a rare breed like Dan Bailey who is rock solid consistent year in and year out, I suppose those aren't that easy to find. (but that doesn't make them worth 4M).

If you're referring to Mason Crosby types they are indeed very easy to find.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Just go for two if he blows up.....haha!

The short yardage offense is going to have to get a lot better for that.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Depends what your definition of a good one is I guess...if you're referring to a rare breed like Dan Bailey who is rock solid consistent year in and year out, I suppose those aren't that easy to find. (but that doesn't make them worth 4M).

If you're referring to Mason Crosby types they are indeed very easy to find.

Let me rephrase then...average kickers are hard to fine. Top 20 kickers are hard to you find. As you conveniently hang on one word and ignore the evidence presented, I'll repeat for the fifth time: kickers being "a dime a dozen" is just silly..

Now, if you don't think Bailey (or the other top kickers) are worth $4 million, I can only say the market speaks. If you want to view salaries through the anachronistic lens of a $120 million cap season, that would be your prerogative. It would also be wrong.

I don't debate Crosby is overpaid, for the third time. It's finding a replacement that's the problem.

 

[sschind]

A total of 19 rookie kickers attempted a field goal over the last five seasons. 14 of them are still with the team they played for as a first year professional.

which really is quite amazing considering the only thing that makes sense is to cut your kicker every 2 or 3 years and bring in a cheaper one.

 

[adambr2]

Let me rephrase then...average kickers are hard to fine. Top 20 kickers are hard to you find. As you conveniently hang on one word and ignore the evidence presented, I'll repeat for the fifth time: kickers being "a dime a dozen" is just silly..

Now, if you don't think Bailey (or the other top kickers) are worth $4 million, I can only say the market speaks. If you want to view salaries through the anachronistic lens of a $120 million cap season, that would be your prerogative. It would also be wrong.

I don't debate Crosby is overpaid, for the third time. It's finding a replacement that's the problem.

Well, I disagree. I don't think average kickers are hard to find at all, and I think the fact that teams start over with new undrafted ones every year generally without issue is pretty good evidence of that.

I've never hung on one word, and I never said you thought Crosby was worth the money.

I've presented tons of evidence supporting my opinion on the value of kickers, you simply say they have that value because the market says so and I'm wrong if I think otherwise.

I'm not going to convince you and you're not going to convince me, so there's no point in continuing this. It's tough to debate with someone who presents his opinions as if they were facts, anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well, I disagree. I don't think average kickers are hard to find at all.

You have not demonstrated the validity of that belief.

 

[Half Empty]

Nor has anyone demonstrated the that it's invalid. Nobody has adequately defined the terms.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Nor has anyone demonstrated the that it's invalid. Nobody has adequately defined the terms.

"Dime a dozen" = 0.83 cents per unit

 

[NelsonsLongCatch]

almost a quarter of the games are 3 points or less these days, I'd rather not be left holding my

Holding your what?

 

[Mondio]

Holding your what?

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

There's nobody behind the kicker on the bench, and once the season starts FA pickings get awfully slim. If a rookie blows up, you're holding your d*ck.

The Steelers signed Chris Boswell after week 4 last season and he ended up making 90.6% of his field goals.

You have not demonstrated the validity of that belief.

Adambr and I have presented a ton of stats supporting the claim that it's pretty easy to replace a kicker like Crosby. You have just decided to ignore them.

 

[tynimiller]

Shoot I'd support extending TT's contract in a heartbeat...but I'd wanna slap the man first for paying Crosby like he did and scratch his head on the Starks contract (not as bad but bad)

 

[HardRightEdge]

Adambr and I have presented a ton of stats supporting the claim that it's pretty easy to replace a kicker like Crosby. You have just decided to ignore them.

No, I provided responses to you posts. You chose to ignore those.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

No, I provided responses to you posts. You chose to ignore those.

You didn't present a single fact supporting your claim.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Steelers signed Chris Boswell after week 4 last season and he ended up making 90.6% of his field goals.

You cite one? That's not a dime a dozen. I'll help you out. There were two other first year kickers who had a higher FG make % than Crosby last season. But you would have known that if you read my posts.

So, there were 3 first year kickers that out performed Crosby last season. That's not a dime a dozen either.

You should be aware the Chargers went with a first year kicker, Josh Lambo. He ranked 26th. at 81.3% FG makes while also missing 4 of 32 EPs.

The Dolphins went with a first year kicker as well, Andrew Franks, also ranked ranked 26th, with the same 81.3% FG makes, while also missing 3 of 36 EPs.

At no time did I suggest there are no good kickers coming into the league each years. What I did highlight is how few of them there are, which goes to explain why kicker longevity is so extreme once they prove themselves while getting paid handsomely in the bargain. Rookie kickers are very risky; the ones who prove up are decidedly not a dime a dozen, which is the bone of contention in this debate. This was covered already once.

For the umpteenth time, this is not to dispute whether Crosby is overpaid. This is about your "dime a dozen" contention.

Your task (already posed) should you choose to accept it, is to find out how many first year kickers are on 90 man rosters currently, or better yet how many were on 90 man rosters going into training camp last season. That would tell us the pool of possible starting kickers out of which perhaps 3 Crosby out-performers will emerge.

 

[HardRightEdge]

You didn't present a single fact supporting your claim.

You did not read my posts. Period. There is a difference between facts and deductions as opposed to shallow statistics derived from blind queries.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Your task (already posed) should you choose to accept it, is to find out how many first year kickers are on 90 man rosters currently, or better yet how many were on 90 man rosters going into training camp last season. That would tell us the pool of possible starting kickers out of which perhaps 3 Crosby out-performers will emerge.

It's way too much work to search for the kickers on training camp rosters from last season. In addition I don't think it would prove anything. My point is teams make a mistake when signing a kicker to a lucrative deal when there are rookies out there capable of doing the same job. The numbers for rookies that have kicked in the league serve as evidence for it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It's way too much work to search for the kickers on training camp rosters from last season. In addition I don't think it would prove anything.

Actually, it would be first year kickers. You'd want to include all the guys who didn't make a roster last season. It would demonstrate how large the pool of first year kickers happens to be out of which 3 decent kickers emerged. It goes to the point of your "dime a dozen" contention. Just because you can't query it doesn't mean it's not relevant. It is very relevant.

My point is teams make a mistake when signing a kicker to a lucrative deal when there are rookies out there capable of doing the same job.

See above. There are certainly rookies out there capable of doing the same job, but you don't know which ones will succeed in money games out of the pool and you don't know which ones would prefer not to play in Green Bay given a UDFA's options if the player is any good.

The numbers for rookies that have kicked in the league serve as evidence for it.

Of course there are rookies who have kicked in the league. If there weren't, in time there wouldn't be any kickers at all. 3 outperformed Crosby last year. So how easy is it to find one of those guys? It's not. It's a crap shoot, in fact. And as I posted earlier, the trend is fewer and fewer 2nd., 3rd., 4th. and 5th. year kickers. The ones who do make it as a rookie tend to eventually blow up.

My point is teams make a mistake when signing a kicker to a lucrative deal when there are rookies out there capable of doing the same job.

You mean like Lambo, Franks and the untold numbers that don't make a roster?

Again, this is not a debate about whether Crosby is overpaid. It's about those so-called "dime a dozen" replacements.

Instead of rolling the dice, perhaps a more reasonably priced free agent would have been the solution. Josh Brown put together 3 consecutive outstanding seasons, and re-signed with the Giants for 2 years, $2 mil per year. I would not have cried if the Packers paid somewhat above that deal to secure him.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course there are rookies who have kicked in the league. If there weren't, in time there wouldn't be any kickers at all. 3 outperformed Crosby last year. So how easy is it to find one of those guys? It's not. It's a crap shoot, in fact. And as I posted earlier, the trend is fewer and fewer 2nd., 3rd., 4th. and 5th. year kickers. The ones who do make it as a rookie tend to eventually blow up.

First of all I said the numbers for and not of rookies. Over the last five years second year (85.8%), third year (82.3%) and fourth year kickers (82.4%) have combined to be more succesful than Crosby.

While it's possible to end up with a rookie kicker that's struggling the chances are pretty good to find one that can duplicate Crosby's performance.

 

[adambr2]

And as I posted earlier, the trend is fewer and fewer 2nd., 3rd., 4th. and 5th. year kickers.

Of the 32 qualifying kickers last year, 8 of them (25%!) were rookies or 2nd year kickers. TWO or less years experience now. I didn't even look at how many had 3, 4, and 5. How exactly is this a trend of fewer?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of the 32 qualifying kickers last year, 8 of them (25%!) were rookies or 2nd year kickers. TWO or less years experience now. I didn't even look at how many had 3, 4, and 5. How exactly is this a trend of fewer?

Even better 17 of 38 kickers (44.7%) attempting a field goal last season were still playing under their rookie contract.