Post-draft cuts, and potential GB pick ups

[Mondio]

I would venture a guess you'd have to look long and hard to find a kicker that had a total 5 of kicks blocked in a single season. our special teams as a whole were atrocious in that regard. but you brought it up to say mason is just a "top 23 kicker" and the previous season he was almost 90% kicker having 20+ FG attempts inside of 40. A point someone else brought up and you tried to downplay. I don't have any desire to analyze every kick either. My point was, your numbers miss something. They're just numbers.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Like the year before when Mason had 19 attempts inside 39 and was a top 23 kicker with a 81.8 success rate?

I swear people will make every effort to spin Crosby's numbers to try to justify the contract no matter how much the evidence says otherwise.

I am simply going off his numbers from last year that someone posted link to. Mason was very good last year and actually better than his numbers said bc his kicks were a much higher degree of difficulty. He may regress again which I think is part of your point but his numbers were really good last year

 

[adambr2]

I just don't really understand why you guys are trying so hard to prove that Crosby was really a few percentage points better than his final numbers. That was never the point. It doesn't matter really whether he's the 10th best or 23rd best kicker in the game. It's still not worth paying $4M for a job that you can get accomplished nearly the same exact way for $500,000. Especially with a hard cap.

 

[TeamTundra]

Crosby's cap hit does not reach $4 million per year until the 2018 season.
We get it, you think he is overpaid.

Do you think a punter that is currently 34 years old is worth $3.4 million a
year in 2018? Well that is what the Seahawks will have on their books for Jon
Ryan and cutting him will result in a cap hit of $1.2 million.



http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/jon-ryan/

 

[HardRightEdge]

[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 664956, member: 7277It's still not worth paying $4M for a job that you can get accomplished nearly the same exact way for $500,000. Especially with a hard cap.[/QUOTE]
I am no Crosby apologist, not be a long shot. I wanted the Packers to sign Dan Carpenter in 2013 FA, which would have been the right move, his 6 missed EPs last season notwithstanding.

But if it were as easy and cheap as you say, every team with an average-or-worse kicker (or punter) would follow your prescription.

A fairly small handful of rookie kickers/punters make opening day rosters and then perform well enough to make a career of it. It's a case of the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

The Thompson/Ball habit of late is to overpay. Depending on how much the cap increases in the next few year, Crosby might be back in the middle of the kicker pack salary-wise by year 3 or 4. Small consolation I suppose.

 

[GreenBaySlacker]

Crosby's cap hit does not reach $4 million per year until the 2018 season.
We get it, you think he is overpaid.

Do you think a punter that is currently 34 years old is worth $3.4 million a
year in 2018? Well that is what the Seahawks will have on their books for Jon
Ryan and cutting him will result in a cap hit of $1.2 million.



http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/jon-ryan/

What seems high now, wont seem so high in 4 years I bet...

What throws me off is that people ASSUME our rookie will be as good as Crosby..........? I attribute the roughly 3 mil in salary difference to trust, experience, basicly the whole comfort zone that we have with Crosby. We know what he is capable of...That to me is worth it. Apparently, like Seattle, I give the kicking game a lot of value. And although I had to weigh it for a while. I strongly concluded that it was the safe way. and at this stage of this team, thats the only way...

So consider what I said earlier. What if the rookie Kicker sucks??? What if he cant handle the pressure of the playoffs, and shanks short ones? What happens when our strategy starts changing because we have no faith in the kicker? This entire team could take a nasty hit, should that kicker happen to suck..... We dont need to risk the whole, for a couple mil a year.

 

[adambr2]

[QUOTE="adambr2, post: 664956, member: 7277] It's still not worth paying $4M for a job that you can get accomplished nearly the same exact way for $500,000. Especially with a hard cap.

I am no Crosby apologist, not be a long shot. I wanted the Packers to sign Dan Carpenter in 2013 FA, which would have been the right move, his 6 missed EPs last season notwithstanding.

But if it were as easy and cheap as you say, every team with an average-or-worse kicker (or punter) would follow your prescription.

A fairly small handful of rookie kickers/punters make opening day rosters and then perform well enough to make a career of it. It's a case of the devil you know is better than the devil you don't.

The Thompson/Ball habit of late is to overpay. Depending on how much the cap increases in the next few year, Crosby might be back in the middle of the kicker pack salary-wise by year 3 or 4. Small consolation I suppose.[/QUOTE]

Honestly, I do fully believe every team without an elite every year kicker should follow this prescription.

It is that easy and cheap. Kickers are a dime a dozen. Josh Brown was a 7th round pick in 2003. Dan Bailey was undrafted in 2011. Stephen Gostowski was a 4th rounder. Adam Vinatieri was undrafted. So was Steven Hauschka.

Kickers are so easy to come by that I'd say without looking it up that probably half the starters out there are undrafted.

It's true that not every undrafted kicker makes a roster but many or them are simply brought in as a camp leg to compete with an underperforming veteran and thus have the deck stacked against them from the start. It's not difficult or expensive to acquire another if yours isn't panning out.

 

[adambr2]

What seems high now, wont seem so high in 4 years I bet...

What throws me off is that people ASSUME our rookie will be as good as Crosby..........? I attribute the roughly 3 mil in salary difference to trust, experience, basicly the whole comfort zone that we have with Crosby. We know what he is capable of...That to me is worth it. Apparently, like Seattle, I give the kicking game a lot of value. And although I had to weigh it for a while. I strongly concluded that it was the safe way. and at this stage of this team, thats the only way...

So consider what I said earlier. What if the rookie Kicker sucks??? What if he cant handle the pressure of the playoffs, and shanks short ones? What happens when our strategy starts changing because we have no faith in the kicker? This entire team could take a nasty hit, should that kicker happen to suck..... We dont need to risk the whole, for a couple mil a year.

What if, what if, what if.

What if Crosby sucks? He did in 2012. How can you guarantee that won't happen any more than I can guarantee a rookie won't suck?

What if he can't handle the pressure and misses clutch kicks like the one against Detroit?

 

[HardRightEdge]

It is that easy and cheap. Kickers are a dime a dozen. Josh Brown was a 7th round pick in 2003. Dan Bailey was undrafted in 2011. Stephen Gostowski was a 4th rounder. Adam Vinatieri was undrafted. So was Steven Hauschka.

5 guys in around 15 years (I'm not going to look up Vinatieri's actual tenure). How many busted out in camp over 15 years?

If you want to name names, list the rookie kickers who made a team in week 1 in each of the last 5 years. Then we'll see how many stick in an average year and to what degree they are survivors.

Again...I'm far from a Crosby apologist, but to say kickers are "a dime a dozen" is ludicrous.

Is this just another overstatement to make a point? If it is, may I suggest the point is actually the point for which there is no substitute.

 

[adambr2]

Crosby's cap hit does not reach $4 million per year until the 2018 season.
We get it, you think he is overpaid.

Do you think a punter that is currently 34 years old is worth $3.4 million a
year in 2018? Well that is what the Seahawks will have on their books for Jon
Ryan and cutting him will result in a cap hit of $1.2 million.



http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks/jon-ryan/

Why do I care what the Seahawks are paying their punter, and how is a 1.2M dead cap hit comparable to what we are talking about?

Yes, I'm aware the major cap hits are back loaded with Crosby. As they are with most NFL contracts.

 

[adambr2]

5 guys in 15 years. How many busted out in camp over 15 years?

The kicker/punter positions are unique in that you start the season with one each. If they mess up on the big stage, you're scrambling, and the next guy may not be any better. Devil you know....

All I did was give you the top 5 kickers from last year. It just happened to be those 5. They weren't picked at random. I can surely give many more examples of guys that are now established kickers, but why?

As several people have pointed out early you run the same risk with a veteran kicker messing up on the big stage. It can happen just as easily to a vet as it did to Crosby in 2012. We had to alter our 4th down strategy near the red zone that year, because he was so bad.

 

[adambr2]

Again...I'm far from a Crosby apologist, but to say kickers are "a dime a dozen" is ludicrous.

And yet every year without fail, you have minimum salary undrafted rookie kickers that will equal or outperform their highly paid veteran counterparts.

If you don't want to call that dime a dozen, I'm not sure what to call it.

 

[TeamTundra]

Why do I care what the Seahawks are paying their punter, and how is a 1.2M dead cap hit comparable to what we are talking about?

Yes, I'm aware the major cap hits are back loaded with Crosby. As they are with most NFL contracts.

My point is many NFL teams value the kicking game more than you realize and the players are
not just replaceable spare parts. I used Seattle as an example because John Schneider is highly
regarded on this forum, as well as he should be, and he is willing to pay his punter close to what
we will be paying Crosby in 2018. I referenced the $1.2 million cap hit to show that there is a
penalty if the Seahawks cut him and that the contract has some merit behind it and isn't just fluff.
Ryan's contract was also just signed this year like Crosby's and I would think it would be easier to
find a new punter than a new kicker.

 

[adambr2]

My point is many NFL teams value the kicking game more than you realize and the players are
not just replaceable spare parts. I used Seattle as an example because John Schneider is highly
regarded on this forum, as well as he should be, and he is willing to pay his punter close to what
we will be paying Crosby in 2018. I referenced the $1.2 million cap hit to show that there is a
penalty if the Seahawks cut him and that the contract has some merit behind it and isn't just fluff.
Ryan's contract was also just signed this year like Crosby's and I would think it would be easier to
find a new punter than a new kicker.

I don't necessarily agree with punters being easier to find than kickers as I think there's a little more disparity between a top 10 and bottom 10 punter in effectiveness and specialized skills like hitting inside the 20.

Look, I fully realize that SOME GMs have a different perspective on the value of kickers, but I stand by my statement that I feel they're a major market inefficiency.

Also, even great minds like Schneider make questionable decisions and despite his great drafts early on, I'd even argue that since 2013 Schneider has been near the top of that list. The Percy Harvin trade was a terrible decision an directly led to Schneider's entire 2013 draft class being a disaster. The Graham trade isn't looking much better so far.

It's no coincidence that the Seahawks have started slipping off their perch back to the pack as they've lacked the ammunition these last few years to add to Schneider's great early drafts.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

a million dollars to provide consistency and keep your mantra and message to the entire team, that if you work hard, you will be rewarded is pittance.

It´s $13 million over four season though.

Crosby's 16 kicks over 40 yards was at or near the top as well

10 teams had more field goal attempts from more than 40 yards than the Packers last season.

GB has largely been able to keep everyone they've targeted to keep. I don't see that changing. I doubt Mason's salary is going to keep them from signing Sitton. Age, mounting injuries and how much they think he's worth going forward are going to matter more than Mason's money. IF any of those players aren't signed it's because our staff thinks they are going to be outplayed by someone else working hard or someone else is willing to pay them a lot more. It won't be because GB can't pay them more, because they have their worth already established in terms of the entire team

Next offseason the Packers won´t be able to sign some of their free agent because of not having enough cap space. Overpaying for Crosby factors into this issue.

I would venture a guess you'd have to look long and hard to find a kicker that had a total 5 of kicks blocked in a single season.

While having three field goals blocked in a single season is a lot there were a total of 29 in the league during the 2014 season. It happens to other kickers as well.

Crosby's cap hit does not reach $4 million per year until the 2018 season.
We get it, you think he is overpaid.

The Packers can´t release Crosby at any point during his current contract without his cap hit averaging more than $4 million for each season played.

If you want to name names, list the rookie kickers who made a team in week 1 in each of the last 5 years. Then we'll see how many stick in an average year and to what degree they are survivors.

Again...I'm far from a Crosby apologist, but to say kickers are "a dime a dozen" is ludicrous.

Over the last five season rookies that have attempted a field goal in the NFL have combined to make 83.2% of those kicks. Crosby has a success rate of 81.1% over the same period.

Kickers are a dime a dozen.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I am simply going off his numbers from last year that someone posted link to. Mason was very good last year and actually better than his numbers said bc his kicks were a much higher degree of difficulty. He may regress again which I think is part of your point but his numbers were really good last year

Crosby´s average distance of 36.71 yards on field goal attempts last season ranked 22nd in the league.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And yet every year without fail, you have minimum salary undrafted rookie kickers that will equal or outperform their highly paid veteran counterparts.

If you don't want to call that dime a dozen, I'm not sure what to call it.

Name them over the past 5 years. Let's seem how many dimes there are among dozens. That's 160 potential roster spots.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Over the last five season rookies that have attempted a field goal in the NFL have combined to make 83.2% of those kicks. Crosby has a success rate of 81.1% over the same period.

Kickers are a dime a dozen.

So, how many rookies were there among those potential 160 roster spots? And how many were on 90 man rosters who never played a game?

 

[Sky King]

.

Crosby´s average distance of 36.71 yards on field goal attempts last season ranked 22nd in the league.

Stalled drives deep in the opponents territory?

 

[Half Empty]

Last year was easy to find, so we can start there. Were any of the better kickers on the list undrafted rookies? http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/player/_/stat/kicking/sort/fieldGoalPct

 

[HardRightEdge]

.

Stalled drives deep in the opponents territory?

Perhaps.

Consider McCarthy's among the coaches who in recent years has grasped the advantage of eschewing the kick in 4th. and short yardage situations when in marginal FG range, say from the 30 - 40 yard line range. Of course it doesn't help if your short yardage offense stinks. I'd guess there were 3 or 4 of those situations last season, though I don't know the exact number. That would put a small dent in the average distance.

Regardless, if a kicker's average distance is shorter than the league average you'd expect a better than league average make %.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So, how many rookies were there among those potential 160 roster spots? And how many were on 90 man rosters who never played a game?

A total of 19 rookie kickers attempted a field goal over the last five seasons. 14 of them are still with the team they played for as a first year professional.

 

[HardRightEdge]

And yet every year without fail, you have minimum salary undrafted rookie kickers that will equal or outperform their highly paid veteran counterparts.

If you don't want to call that dime a dozen, I'm not sure what to call it.

Kickers are a dime a dozen.

OK, I'll give you guys a head start on your 5 year analysis project, which probably does not deserve the time I've already spent. You may not particularly like Crosby and you certainly don't like what he's paid, a sentiment I will likely share for at least the next 2 or 3 years, but to say place kickers are "a dime a dozen" is just silly.

Listed below are the top 32 kickers from 2015 listed in order of FG make % with Crosby at the midpoint. I've noted their years experience through 2015:

Josh Brown 13
Dan Bailey 5
Steven Hauschka 8
Adam Vinatieri 20
Stephen Gostkowski 10
Matt Prater 11
Chris Boswell 1
Chandler Catanzaro 2
Dustin Hopkins 2
Phil Dawson 17
Ryan Succop 7
Travis ***** 1
Blair Walsh 4
Jason Myers 1
Nick Novak 8
Mason Crosby 9
Brandon McManus, PK 2
Dan Carpenter, PK 8
Robbie Gould, PK 11
Graham Gano, PK 6
Justin Tucker, PK 4
Randy Bullock, PK 4
Mike Nugent, PK 11
Connor Barth, PK 6
Caleb Sturgis, PK 3
Nick Folk, PK 11
Josh Lambo, PK 1
Andrew Franks, PK 1
Cairo Santos, PK 2
Sebastian Janikowski, PK 16
Matt Bryant, PK 14
Greg Zuerlein, PK 4

5 rookies: Boswell, ***** and Myers were ranked above Crosby. Lambo and Franks well below.
4 second year players
1 third year player
4 fourth year players
1 fifth year player

Notice a pattern there? There is attrition after the second season. Why? Because year-to-year consistency is difficult to maintain; look at Zuerlein. It's hard for these "dime a dozen" kickers to stick around; most turn out to be blow-ups in waiting.

These names do not, of course, include the many kickers brought into camps across the league in the hopes of doing what you want...produce equal or better performance than the incumbent for less money. How many fail? A whole lot more than make it.

So, cut Crosby, bring in 3 rookies, take the best one...you might end up with Andrew Franks. Or maybe somebody worse who proves himself to not belong in the league. Then try it again the following season.

There are 17 kickers in that list with 6+ years experience, more than half the league.

There are 10 kickers in that list with 10+ years experience, the same as the number of kickers with 1-3 years experience. 4 of the 10 ranked below Crosby in 2015.

This begs the question: if kickers are a dime a dozen, why are 1/3 of them 10+ year guys, most of whom are paid handsomely. This is a high percentage. It might be higher than the QB position where career ending injuries are equally rare. I'll leave you guys to check that.

Kickers are closer to the diametric opposite of "dime a dozen" than what you claim. Many are called; few are chosen.

This is not a defense of Crosby's contract, to repeat for about the 3rd. time. It's to say you're being silly with the "dime a dozen" gross exaggerations.

 

[tynimiller]

a million dollars to provide consistency and keep your mantra and message to the entire team, that if you work hard, you will be rewarded is pittance.

To send this message resign Kuhn for less and still resonate same storyline.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A total of 19 rookie kickers attempted a field goal over the last five seasons. 14 of them are still with the team they played for as a first year professional.

Fewer than 3 per year over 5 years. Where's the "dime a dozen"? Two of the first year guys last year stunk. I wonder...how many rookie place kickers + older guys who never made a roster in prior years are currently on 90 man rosters.

Dimes become quarters and quarters become $s.