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Super Bowl pick: Green Bay Packers over Pittsburgh Steelers
Guerry Smith
New Orleans Sports Examiner
When the Saints beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Halloween night, Drew Brees went 20 of 22 for 191 yards and two touchdowns in the second half.
Those scary numbers point out why the Steelers have very little chance to beat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV this Sunday. As good as its defense is, Pittsburgh struggles to stop elite quarterbacks.
Two weeks after Brees’ performance, New England’s Tom Brady torched the Steelers for 350 yards and three touchdowns without throwing an interception or getting sacked in a 39-26 victory. It was the sixth time Brady has beaten Pittsburgh in seven meetings.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is playing every bit as well as Brees or Brady. He figures to have his way with the Steelers, too.
The pick is simple. The Packers will have an easier time scoring on the NFL’s stingiest defense (234 points allowed in the regular season) than the Steelers will on the league’s second stingiest defense (240 points allowed).
Unlike Pittsburgh, Green Bay had to play New England on the road. The Packers lost because Rodgers was out with a concussion, but the previously white-hot Brady threw for only 163 yards in a game that turned on an NFL-record 71-yard kickoff return by an offensive lineman.
People caught up in history will talk about Pittsburgh’s experience as a huge factor. The Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have won two of the last five Super Bowls, while Rodgers had not won a playoff game until the Packers’ three-game run on the road this postseason.
But the Steelers’ victims – Seattle in 2005 and Arizona in 2009 – were nowhere near as good as these Packers. Don’t let the 10-6 regular-season record fool you. Rodgers missed the second half of a loss to Detroit before sitting out the New England game with a severe concussion. Green Bay’s six defeats were by a combined 20 points.
Incredibly, Green Bay has not trailed by more than 7 at any time this year, something no team has accomplished since the NFL-AFL merger. That brings back memories of the 1992 Saints, who fell behind Philadelphia 15-6 in an opener they lost 15-13, fell behind Arizona 14-3 in a game they rallied to win 30-21 and never trailed by more than 7 at any other time during the regular season.
Typical of the Jim Mora era, that team came up empty in the playoffs, making zero halftime adjustments on offense and blowing a 20-7 third-quarter lead to lose 36-20 to the Eagles. The final margin was the largest deficit they faced.
Rodgers beat the Eagles in his playoff debut and will beat the Steelers in his season finale, matching Brett Favre’s haul of one Super Bowl title.
Roethlisberger torched Green Bay’s secondary for 501 passing yards in a wild 37-36 victory last year, but that was a far inferior Packers team. Pittsburgh receivers were wide open against blown coverages all day long. I picked Arizona to beat Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs because of that game, and the Packers’ secondary was just as awful in a 51-45 overtime loss.
This year, Green Bay has held its last 12 opponents to an average of 13 points.
Unless the Steelers knock Rodgers out of the game, they won’t win.
The Packers are better, and Brees agrees. He said on ESPN radio earlier this week that Green Bay would win if both teams played their best.
Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 17.
Guerry Smith
New Orleans Sports Examiner
- February 5th, 2011 8:48 am
When the Saints beat the Pittsburgh Steelers on Halloween night, Drew Brees went 20 of 22 for 191 yards and two touchdowns in the second half.
Those scary numbers point out why the Steelers have very little chance to beat the Green Bay Packers in Super Bowl XLV this Sunday. As good as its defense is, Pittsburgh struggles to stop elite quarterbacks.
Two weeks after Brees’ performance, New England’s Tom Brady torched the Steelers for 350 yards and three touchdowns without throwing an interception or getting sacked in a 39-26 victory. It was the sixth time Brady has beaten Pittsburgh in seven meetings.
Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is playing every bit as well as Brees or Brady. He figures to have his way with the Steelers, too.
The pick is simple. The Packers will have an easier time scoring on the NFL’s stingiest defense (234 points allowed in the regular season) than the Steelers will on the league’s second stingiest defense (240 points allowed).
Unlike Pittsburgh, Green Bay had to play New England on the road. The Packers lost because Rodgers was out with a concussion, but the previously white-hot Brady threw for only 163 yards in a game that turned on an NFL-record 71-yard kickoff return by an offensive lineman.
People caught up in history will talk about Pittsburgh’s experience as a huge factor. The Steelers and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger have won two of the last five Super Bowls, while Rodgers had not won a playoff game until the Packers’ three-game run on the road this postseason.
But the Steelers’ victims – Seattle in 2005 and Arizona in 2009 – were nowhere near as good as these Packers. Don’t let the 10-6 regular-season record fool you. Rodgers missed the second half of a loss to Detroit before sitting out the New England game with a severe concussion. Green Bay’s six defeats were by a combined 20 points.
Incredibly, Green Bay has not trailed by more than 7 at any time this year, something no team has accomplished since the NFL-AFL merger. That brings back memories of the 1992 Saints, who fell behind Philadelphia 15-6 in an opener they lost 15-13, fell behind Arizona 14-3 in a game they rallied to win 30-21 and never trailed by more than 7 at any other time during the regular season.
Typical of the Jim Mora era, that team came up empty in the playoffs, making zero halftime adjustments on offense and blowing a 20-7 third-quarter lead to lose 36-20 to the Eagles. The final margin was the largest deficit they faced.
Rodgers beat the Eagles in his playoff debut and will beat the Steelers in his season finale, matching Brett Favre’s haul of one Super Bowl title.
Roethlisberger torched Green Bay’s secondary for 501 passing yards in a wild 37-36 victory last year, but that was a far inferior Packers team. Pittsburgh receivers were wide open against blown coverages all day long. I picked Arizona to beat Green Bay in the first round of the playoffs because of that game, and the Packers’ secondary was just as awful in a 51-45 overtime loss.
This year, Green Bay has held its last 12 opponents to an average of 13 points.
Unless the Steelers knock Rodgers out of the game, they won’t win.
The Packers are better, and Brees agrees. He said on ESPN radio earlier this week that Green Bay would win if both teams played their best.
Green Bay 27, Pittsburgh 17.
