Packers in best shape for next three years (ESPN)

[Sunshinepacker]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/insider/stor...32-based-their-outlook-next-three-seasons-nfl

Insider article states that Packers are in terrific shape going forward but cites the oline as a potential issue (Tretter, Sitton, Lang and Bakh will be UFAs after 2016). Also says that change to playcaller will be something to keep an eye on since situational play calling cost the Packers a shot at the Super Bowl last year (I agree with that point though I think the importance of play caller is overstated).

 

[TJV]

Insider article states that Packers are in terrific shape going forward but cites the oline as a potential issue (Tretter, Sitton, Lang and Bakh will be UFAs after 2016).

Packer Notes has a piece on this issue titled, "Hoarding Money for 2017".

With 60 percent of his offensive line (left tackle David Bakhtiari and guards Josh Sitton and T.J. Lang) and star running back Eddie Lacy eligible for free agency in 2017, expect Thompson to hoard as much money as possible between now and then.

http://packersnotes.com/2015/06/packers-hoarding-money-for-2017/

Regarding the play caller, the article did say, "This is the big question going forward, as it was situational play calling that arguably cost the Packers a berth in Super Bowl 49." So it looks like they're saying it's something to watch but certainly something that can be improved upon. As we've discussed before, I think McCarthy stepping back gives him an opportunity to manage the entire game, including "situational play calling".

 

[HardRightEdge]

Then there's the defensive side of the ball.

By the time 2017 rolls around, odds are Peppers' time will be up. His contract runs through 2016 if he makes it that far. That's a big hole to fill.

Niether Daniels, Raji, Guion, Boyd, nor D. Jones is signed into 2017 Even if one happened to like Pennel or Gaston for some odd reason, their contracts will be up as well. That's the entire defensive line depth chart as we know it at this time. Daniels will eat into the cap. Maybe one of these other guys will have a step-up year between now and then and earn a decent contract as well...more cap. And even if they don't, or they do while getting excessive offers from other teams in free agency, that's a lot of bodies to replace.

While it's hard to get too excited about Perry and Neal, those guys' deals are up after 2015; along with Peppers, 3 of the top 4 OLBs on the current depth chart are in question for 2017.

Neither Hayward nor Hyde are signed into 2017, 2 of the 5 presumptive nickel starters this season.

There's a lot of work to do on defense by the time 2017 rolls around. And either it won't be cheap or fingers will be crossed regarding all these guys with little or no experience below the top of the depth chart.

Optimism for 2016 is more justified with nearly the entire offensive front liners signed through 2016, Kuhn and Quarless the exceptions. Still, Daniels, Hayward, Perry, Neal and maybe Peppers will need to be replaced or re-signed.

Since the problem against Seattle was the offensive play calling, not the defense, these expert analysts must be thinking these are pretty good players. Or is it that they're not very good and can easily be replaced by 2017? Either proposition is questionable.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Then there's the defensive side of the ball.

By the time 2017 rolls around, odds are Peppers' time will be up. His contract runs through 2016 if he makes it that far. That's a big hole to fill.

Niether Daniels, Raji, Guion, Boyd, nor D. Jones is signed into 2017 Even if one happened to like Pennel or Gaston for some odd reason, their contracts will be up as well. That's the entire defensive line depth chart as we know it at this time. Daniels will eat into the cap. Maybe one of these other guys will have a step-up year between now and then and earn a decent contract as well...more cap. And even if they don't, or they do while getting excessive offers from other teams in free agency, that's a lot of bodies to replace.

While it's hard to get too excited about Perry and Neal, those guys' deals are up after 2015; along with Peppers, 3 of the top 4 OLBs on the current depth chart are in question for 2017.

Neither Hayward nor Hyde are signed into 2017, 2 of the 5 presumptive nickel starters this season.

There's a lot of work to do on defense by the time 2017 rolls around. And either it won't be cheap or fingers will be crossed regarding all these guys with little or no experience below the top of the depth chart.

Optimism for 2016 is more justified with nearly the entire offensive front liners signed through 2016, Kuhn and Quarless the exceptions. Still, Daniels, Hayward, Perry, Neal and maybe Peppers as will need to be replaced or re-signed.

Since the problem against Seattle was the offensive play calling, not the defense, these expert analysts must be thinking these are pretty good players. Or is it that they're not very good and can easily be replaced by 2017? Either proposition is questionable.

Thompson will have a lot of decisions to make on the defensive side of the ball over the next few years. IMO Mike Daniels is the only guy the Packers absolutely have to re-sign after next season with Casey Hayward being another candidate depending on his play in 2015. The defensive line and outside linebacker will have to be addressed by either re-signing some of our own free agents, in the draft or by bringing in some UFAs.

In 2016, Thompson will have to take care of the offensive line and get Lacy signed but with the cap being expected to raise even further and the front office managing the cap extremely well I trust them to be able to bring all of the core guys back.

 

[El Guapo]

As an unabashed Thompson fan, it's tough for me to argue with a #1 ranking here. This is entirely Thompson's team for better or for worse, and the "experts" think that the Packers have all of the right pieces in place to be a top team for at least the next few seasons. Certainly there are holes since we haven't won the last several Super Bowls, but things are rosy nonetheless.

Kudos to the entire Packers organization. Keep up the good work.

 

[sschind]

You have to remember its the best shape for the next 3 years based on current conditions. That does not mean we can't get better. Sure our defense is suspect but we have two rookies in the secondary and a bunch of other young guys who could step up (yes they could fall flat as well)

Over all I would have to say its a pretty good situation to be in right now. Despite any misgivings you may have toward our defense you have to admit Ted has us set up pretty good for a while.

 

[PikeBadger]

Thompson will have a lot of decisions to make on the defensive side of the ball over the next few years. IMO Mike Daniels is the only guy the Packers absolutely have to re-sign after next season with Casey Hayward being another candidate depending on his play in 2015. The defensive line and outside linebacker will have to be addressed by either re-signing some of our own free agents, in the draft or by bringing in some UFAs.

In 2016, Thompson will have to take care of the offensive line and get Lacy signed but with the cap being expected to raise even further and the front office managing the cap extremely well I trust them to be able to bring all of the core guys back.

Same as every year. Lots of tough decisions for the GM to make every off season. I suspect he'll continue to trust in his coaching staff's input and their ability to develop the young players. I agree that Daniels would appear to be the guy they need to re-sign. I think Hayward's situation might be more dependant on the play and development of Rollins, Goodson and Randall.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Same as every year. Lots of tough decisions for the GM to make every off season. I suspect he'll continue to trust in his coaching staff's input and their ability to develop the young players. I agree that Daniels would appear to be the guy they need to re-sign. I think Hayward's situation might be more dependant on the play and development of Rollins, Goodson and Randall.

I don't agree that Rollins' or Randall's play will have any affect on Hayward's contract situation next offseason.

Hayward is the front runner to win the starting job opposite Shields for the 2015 season. If he performs on a high level and is able to stay healthy the team will offer him a nice contract. If he doesn't the Packers will likely let him walk in free agency. It's all up to him though.

 

[PikeBadger]

I don't agree that Rollins' or Randall's play will have any affect on Hayward's contract situation next offseason.

Hayward is the front runner to win the starting job opposite Shields for the 2015 season. If he performs on a high level and is able to stay healthy the team will offer him a nice contract. If he doesn't the Packers will likely let him walk in free agency. It's all up to him though.

If he performs on a high level, his value to the Packers will likely be less than to other suitors if Goodson, Rollins and Randall are deemed to be ready in 2016.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If he performs on a high level, his value to the Packers will likely be less than to other suitors if Goodson, Rollins and Randall are deemed to be ready in 2016.

How will the coaching staff and Thompson know for sure if one of Goodson, Randall or Rollins is capable of playing outside if Hayward starts there for the entire year though???

 

[PikeBadger]

How will the coaching staff and Thompson know for sure if one of Goodson, Randall or Rollins is capable of playing outside if Hayward starts there for the entire year though???

You don't think any of those three will get snaps playing outside this year? A first and a second round draft pick? Both should be ready to be capable starters by 2016.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You don't think any of those three will get snaps playing outside this year? A first and a second round draft pick? Both should be ready to be capable starters by 2016.

I expect at least one of them to get some playing time outside but Hayward has been with the team for three years and there's no guarantee he will turn into a solid starter on the perimeter.

 

[PikeBadger]

Imo, with Joe Whitt coaching them, there is a decent chance that three of the four will be starting calibre CB's by the middle of the 2016 season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Imo, with Joe Whitt coaching them, there is a decent chance that three of the four will be starting calibre CB's by the middle of the 2016 season.

I would be fine with one at the start of the 2015 season.

 

[Ace]

I don't particularly like Mayock but I do like what he had to say about Randall that was posted in another thread. I personally have higher hopes for Rollins and think he may end up being the best out of the bunch. Just one mans opinion though.

As far as the Packers for the next 3 years... This is what Ted does. It will be interesting to see what happens going into '17 though with all those guys being free agents. Of the group IMO Sitton, Lang, Eddie and Bahk are the biggest priorities and that's pretty obvious. Hyde will depend on how the rest of the secondary develops. Datone hasn't done himself any favors with his play, and now with his suspension. He needs to prove something to even consider becoming a priority.

Do we have any idea what the cap is projected to be at by then?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I don't particularly like Mayock but I do like what he had to say about Randall that was posted in another thread. I personally have higher hopes for Rollins and think he may end up being the best out of the bunch. Just one mans opinion though.

It's quite possible Rollins will end up being the best out of the rookie cornerbacks but I think he will most likely play in the slot and not on the perimeter.

As far as the Packers for the next 3 years... This is what Ted does. It will be interesting to see what happens going into '17 though with all those guys being free agents. Of the group IMO Sitton, Lang, Eddie and Bahk are the biggest priorities and that's pretty obvious. Hyde will depend on how the rest of the secondary develops. Datone hasn't done himself any favors with his play, and now with his suspension. He needs to prove something to even consider becoming a priority.

I think that's a fair analysis.

Do we have any idea what the cap is projected to be at by then?

The cap is projected to raise to $160 million in 2016, there aren't any numbers for 2017 yet.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Do we have any idea what the cap is projected to be at by then?

It strikes me that cap increases are beneficial only to the extent guys are locked up in long term deals in advance of the increase. At the same time, the cap carryover, in place beginning in 2012, eliminated the "use it or lose it" provision that created an incentive for early extensions. Teams want a discount in early signings to offset an additional season or seasons of injury risk in exchange for the player getting additional security. On the other hand, it's done in the context of the recent signings of comparable players with agents attempting to get projected future cap increases built into the deal as well.

Since the other 31 teams enjoy the same benefits of cap increases as the Packers, the result is wage inflation. The cap has increased about 15% in the last 2 years and nearly 70% in the last decade and it has not made getting economical extensions or the signing of free agents any easier.

For example, if the cap now is where it was 2 years ago, the Packers and Cobb would have been haggling in the $7 - $8 mil range instead of $8 - $10 mil range.

There's no free cap lunch.

 

[El Guapo]

Since the other 31 teams enjoy the same benefits of cap increases as the Packers, the result is wage inflation.

....The Cliff's Notes version

 

[HardRightEdge]

....The Cliff's Notes version

The Cliff's Notes version should include, at a minimum, the elimination of the "use it or lose it" CBA provision. It's an important factor independent of wage inflation. That provision gave core players an element of leverage in gaining, and the GMs an incentive in offering, an extension. That factor is no longer in play.

 

[PikeBadger]

As far as the Packers for the next 3 years... This is what Ted does. It will be interesting to see what happens going into '17 though with all those guys being free agents. Of the group IMO Sitton, Lang, Eddie and Bahk are the biggest priorities and that's pretty obvious. Hyde will depend on how the rest of the secondary develops. Datone hasn't done himself any favors with his play, and now with his suspension. He needs to prove something to even consider becoming a priority.

Do we have any idea what the cap is projected to be at by then?

I doubt that he'll try to re-sign both guards. Tretter or another guy yet to be identified will probably take either Sitton's or Lang's position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I doubt that he'll try to re-sign both guards. Tretter or another guy yet to be identified will probably take either Sitton's or Lang's position.

If both Sitton and Lang continue to perform at the level they played in 2014 I don´t see any reason to not re-sign both of them.

 

[PikeBadger]

If both Sitton and Lang continue to perform at the level they played in 2014 I don´t see any reason to not re-sign both of them.

I do. They'll both be very expensive and over 30. Injuries are likely by then to have begun to take its toll on both of them. By then we'll have someone ready to step in. I'll be very surprised and somewhat disappointed if Thompson feels he's in a position that both need to be re-signed. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tretter starting during the 2016 season.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I do. They'll both be very expensive and over 30. Injuries are likely by then to have begun to take its toll on both of them. By then we'll have someone ready to step in. I'll be very surprised and somewhat disappointed if Thompson feels he's in a position that both need to be re-signed. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tretter starting during the 2016 season.

Guards can still perform at a high level aged over 30. There´s absolutely no reason to believe Tretter will start ahead of either Sitton or Lang in 2016, who paired up to be one of the if not the best guard tandem in the entire league in 2014 while both battled injuries for the second half of the year.

 

[Half Empty]

I do. They'll both be very expensive and over 30. Injuries are likely by then to have begun to take its toll on both of them. By then we'll have someone ready to step in. I'll be very surprised and somewhat disappointed if Thompson feels he's in a position that both need to be re-signed. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tretter starting during the 2016 season.

Why are you touting Tretter? Right games played in two years, none started. Could also pick someone from:

77 Phillips, Andy C/G 6-2 303 23 R Central Michigan
74 Rotheram, Matt G 6-5 325 23 R Pittsburgh
65 Taylor, Lane G 6-3 324 25 3 Oklahoma State
79 Walker, Josh G 6-5 328 24 1 Middle Tennessee State
67 Barclay, Don T/G 6-4 305 26 4 West Virginia

 

[PikeBadger]

Guards can still perform at a high level aged over 30. There´s absolutely no reason to believe Tretter will start ahead of either Sitton or Lang in 2016, who paired up to be one of the if not the best guard tandem in the entire league in 2014 while both battled injuries for the second half of the year.

True. They can perform at a high level after 30. They aren't the only guys on the roster whose contract expires after 2016. Like all off-seasons, decisions will be made who to try and re-sign, who to let walk. I suspect Tretter will be ready to step in and one of the current starters will walk or retire. I think Tretter was drafted to be an eventual starter. I think Barclay could also fill that spot and potentially Bulaga if the team found a RT in next year's draft they really like. The days of Kramer and Thurston forever are over. Thompson doesn't roll that way and will continue refreshing the roster imo.