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OPTIMISTIC thread: My Off-season Master Plan to get us back on top

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by FrankRizzo, Jan 8, 2014.

  1. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    As much as I wanted to add Brian Orakpo (sure-fire stud OLB with Matthews would give us THE BEST pair of OLB), or safety Jairus Byrd, I know there's no way Ted will, or should he really, spend THAT kind of money on a FA right now.

    I'm not a Capologist, but I will try and be as realistic as possible.

    We all know we have a lot of our own UFA's right now.

    HERE IS WHO WE DO RE-SIGN
    • Evan Dietrich-Smith, slightly below medium pay for starting C.
    • Matt Flynn, he has no other options, will be veteran minimum.
    • James Jones, already once tested free agency when younger. won't get huge interest again. good for us.
    • Johnny Jolly, his neck worry costs him $ and interest anywhere else. vet minimum 1-year deal.
    • John Kuhn, won't make as much as last contract, but he stays home.
    • Jamari Lattimore, minimum deal, might not make team next year.
    • Ryan Pickett, nobody else will offer the big old man a deal, so he stays home cheap, we need him.
    • Andrew Quarless, he's not very good, but he's the best we got now. Won't cost much.
    • James Starks, RB's aren't that hot of commodities, so won't be much competition if any for him.
    • CJ Wilson, he's just a body, and if he costs more than the vet minimum or close, he's gone.

    HERE IS WHO IS GONE
    • BJ Raji
    • Sam Shields, we all want to keep him, he's great. But someone -Minnesota, Miami, Jax) will throw a HUGE offer his way.... we save that money to bring in some help elsewhere and keep more of our other guys.
    • Jermichael Finley, don't know that he will ever play again, but I suspect not for us again.
    • Chris Banjo
    • Khalil Bell
    • Robert Francois
    • MD Jennings
    • Mike Neal
    • Marshall Newhouse
    • Seneca Wallace
    FREE AGENCY
    Thompson saves the money on Shields and Raji, also gets Tramon to re-structure.


    Teddy goes 2006 again on us, and brings in 2 good UFA's on defense. No day or even week-1 Gucci priced guys. But good values, and guys young enough to help for a good 5+ years like Woodson and Pickett did.

    ILB Vincent Rey, Cincinnati Bengals. 6' 2", 247, age 26 :: 3-year, $8 million dollar deal.
    What to do about Hawk and Brad Jones? Not sure, but they are weaknesses.
    I like this guy.
    http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/6106/vincent-rey
    OLB Everson Griffen, Minnesota Vikings. (Made $490K last year). 6' 3", 273 :: 4-year, $13 million
    He's another tweener like a Mike Neal, Nick Perry. But, #1, he HAS produced, and #2, he's good.
    He'll take the place of Neal, and bump Perry to #3 on the depth chart.

    http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/5615/everson-griffen

    Safety Bernard Pollard, 6'1" 224 - Tennessee Titans :: 3 years, $10 million
    He's a veteran at age 29. Not too old. 8 years younger than Woodson.
    This guy has a physical presence. He will make the tackle, and he will intimidate. He also had 3 more interceptions this season than all Packer safeties combined. He made $1.9 mil this season.
    I wanted TJ Ward, Donte Whitner, Jairus Byrd, bot those guys will be more expensive.
    Pollard can be had cheaper.

    http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/3700/bernard-pollard
    DRAFT:Then you know what we do in the DRAFT?
    We take the true BEST PLAYER available.

    We don't reach for the best safety or best DL or ILB or OLB because we have a hole there.
    The HOLE is already filled, with a veteran who can come in and from day 1, knows how to play in the NFL.
    Meanwhile, the rookie can learn and if he truly is the BEST player available, he will help us at whatever position he happens to be.

    Here's how it happens to play out, remember, Ted Thompson is in charge of the draft.


    Round 1- DE/DT Ra'shede Hageman, Minnesota:: 6' 6", 311

    Round 2- ILB Chris Borland, Wisconsin:: 5'11", 246

    Round 3- Traded to New England for their two #4 Rd picks

    Round 4- TE Arthur Lynch, Georgia:: 6'5"", 254

    Round 4NE- CB Aaron Colvin, Oklahoma:: 6'0", 192

    Round 4NE- S Craig Loston, LSU:: 6'1", 210

    Round 4 Comp (Jennings)- WR Donte Moncrief, Ole Miss:: 6'2", 226

    Round 5- OT Billy Turner, North Dakota St.:: 6'5", 310

    Round 5 Comp (Walden)- DT/NT Ryan Carrethers, Arkansas St:: 6'1", 330

    Round 6- WR L'Damian Washington, Missouri, 6'4", 208

    Round 7- S Isaiah Newsome, Louisiana-Monroe:: 5'11", 220


    Here's how our new DEFENSE would shape up.

    DE/DT: Daniels, Hageman, DJones, Worthy, Wilson, Jolly*
    NT: Pickett, Josh Boyd, Carrethers

    In Hageman and Datone Jones, Capers now has his tall DE's for his ideal 3-4 DEs.
    Daniels is effective from inside, something we've been looking for from Worthy. Third year a charm?
    The big Beef is as good as this year as Carrethers replaces Raji for a fraction of the price. Jolly hopefully will be healthy enough to be back. Speaking of back, his back worry will keep his price down should he be able to still play.

    OLB: Matthews, Griffen, Perry, Mulumba
    ILB: Rey, Borland, Hawk, B Jones, Lattimore

    I like Hawk and Jones. I just think they suck. Hawk is reliable, dependable, and average. Amazing he's the highest pick we've had since Tony Mandarich in 1989. Wow.
    Brad Jones, I also like, but he's not an inside linebacker. That spot was Desmond Bishops. Jones was drafted as an outside linebacker with his edge pass rush being his specialty.

    From the little we have seen in the NFL of Rey, I think he would beat out both of our soft vets.
    And even though we've seen nothing in the NFL of Borland, I think this guy has "it". I think he's a smaller version of Luke Keuchly. He's everywhere. He's hyper. He just sniffs out the run. Has instincts. Something we don't see from the current ILB's. I believe the play of Borland will spark this defense, and people will say "Oh that's how an ILB is supposed to play the run in a 3-4 defense?!"

    I have seen Everson Griffen and think he's what we hoped Perry would be.

    Those top 3, all USC guys, would be great -IF healthy. Mulumba has some potential as we saw, but he should be the #4 guy.

    Griffen, IMO, has a chance to be a stud. He's on the larger side like LaMarr Woodley.
    I would love to steal a Viking back. Last time we got a guy on D from them, it was the GraveDigger.


    CB- Tramon, House, Colvin
    CB- Hayward, Hyde
    S- Burnett, Richardson, Bush
    S- Pollard, Loston

    Draft & Develop...... As good as Hyde was this year, I expect him and House to both be better next year. House HAS to bulk up. Get to Seattle and find some of those SeAdderal supplements.

    Of course, Hayward was no better in his 2nd year than his rookie year, because his hamstring was weak.

    Richardson showed some good stuff, but he's not perfect either. At least he's physical.
    So is Pollard. I believe he not only brings the physicality we are missing, but I think he will rub off on the other guys, and toughen them up a bit. Loston is a good player from a great defensive program at LSU.

    Burnett has to be better than this year. Whether he needs to study more, or whatever, he has to be better. Getting a veteran next to him in Pollard, I think that will help Morgan out a lot.

    On offense, don't forget we still have Jonathon Franklin and DuJuan Harris at our disposal.

    Jermichael thinks he'll play again. I'd say that's about 50-50, and for us, seems doubtful. But I know he'd love to come back to Green Bay.

    I think we have to keep James Jones. Number one, he won't be that costly at all. He didn't do much in his final game except not come up with the 2 big catches. He won't garner much interest, except perhaps from Minnesota haha. Not this time Vikings. They're set at WR enough finally they won't F with us. Same with Chicago. Jones is cheap enough he stays. Thankfully.
    Number two, Jordy and Cobb will be due new contracts next season, and you have to be ready in case we lose one of them. Jones is important to us.

    Our offensive line will get back OT Bryan Bulaga, and JC Tretter, who was a nice draft pick last year. Don't forget about him. He will help somewhere.

    If we have an average (average for the league, not for us) year with injuries, I think we get to at least the NFC Title game, probably the Super Bowl.

    If the Injury-Satan reverses the jinx on us, and we have the opposite health luck, like the 49ers, Philly, enjoyed this year, I see us going 15-1 like 2011, but with a good-great defense, we kick everyone's *** in the playoffs and beat Denver in the Super Bowl.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 8, 2014
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  2. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

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    I dig it. Anywhere there's a mock with us taking Hageman in round 1 makes me a happy camper. That beast needs to be a Packer. I prefer S Deone Buchanon in round 2 and ILB Max Bullough in 3 or 4. His value seems to be fluctuating in a lot of mocks, so I'm not sure where he'll fall. I just want some decent character guys that play mean.
     
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  3. TCHickman24

    TCHickman24 Cheesehead

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    Great work, Frank!
     
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  4. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    I like it, but I think Shields is a MUST resign. He's the best cover corner on the team and Heyward is better in the slot. I don't care if you need to let Kuhn walk, not sign Pollard and release Brad Jones to do it. Shields is very good and very young.
     
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  5. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Edited your post to put article quotes in the quote tags
     
  6. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    One thing I agree with Capers on...you build a defense by backing and filling around at least 3 play makers.

    Shields is a play maker.

    The surest path to mediocrity is giving up the play maker to sign a handful of mediocre and role-playing veterans. I would sacrifice EDS, Kuhn, Starks and Wilson to keep Shields...there's about $6.5 mil there which should come close to covering Shields. It's not like Shields is going to get the big, big money. Nobody talks about him as elite because of his draft status. He's a high second tier coverage corner; top 10 in the league in any case, but not a budget buster. I'd rather release Williams than see Shields hitting the road.

    As for the FAs, you said, "No day or even week-1 Gucci priced guys. But good values, and guys young enough to help for a good 5+ years like Woodson and Pickett did." You might not be aware that Woodson was a Gucci priced guy, and Pickett was close to it.

    I fail to see the merits in bringing in a poor man's "Woodson" for less than Gucci money when Shields is that guy and should represent good value with the imbedded prejudice against undrafted players come FA time.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2014
  7. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    I very much agree with your slant.

    To be clear, cutting Brad Jones would buy $2 mil in cap space. His signing bonus was $3 mil over 3 years, so with 2 years left he'd count $2 mil against the cap if we cut him. If we keep him he's due $3 mil in salary, roster bonus and in-season game day active roster bonuses which all count against the cap, plus $1 mil in prorated signing bonus.

    While I hold minimal affection for the player, and see a need for more physicality at the position, I'm not sure cutting him to save $2 mil is quite the right move simply because I don't see anyone on the roster as a 3-down up and comer.

    I've already got a big body D-Lineman, a safety and a WR if we don't sign Jones, at the top of my draft list. I'd hate to drop one of those for an ILB.
     
  8. Alex

    Alex Cheesehead

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    I like the idea of Pollard, and man if we could keep Borland in Wisconsin I'd be so incredibly excited. I loved watching that kid.
     
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  9. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Wssp 1250 this am had a Packer insider on, Tyler Dunne...Not sure where he got this number but he said something about 9 mill per year..

    http://media.sportsradio1250.com/a/85865527/1-08-14-chuck-and-wickett-8am-hour.htm

    Edit---

    Starts to talk about Shields at 8 min mark...The host Mike Wickett says the 9 mill dollar mark

    Explained rather have Shields at 9 mill than BJ for the same amount--Cant justify BJ @ 9 mill per, but could see the 9 mill per for Shields
     
  10. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Shields may be asking for $9 mil but he won't get it. That would make him a top 5 corner, maybe higher. The franchise tag was $10.9 mil this past season, and that includes the top 5 contracts over the past 5 years with numbers shrinking under the stagnant cap. Nnambi's Philly deal alone, imbedded in that number, inflates it by around $1.5 million.

    The idea of even discussing paying Raji $9 million makes you wonder if these guys even watch the games. Stuck in the echo chamber.... The way they should handle that is by saying, in very serious tones, "some sources report that Raji is seeking a $9 million deal and it remains to be seen if the Packers will move toward that amount." Then pause for a few seconds...and break out laughing.
     
  11. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Going off memory of the podcast they never said pay bj that amount..


    I dont think any of them said Shields was worth the 9..

    But since bj turned down 8 mill they were just tossing out who is worth more. Shields or bj
     
  12. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Frankly, I have no interest in the podcast. I'm going on what you said. I'll say this: if one does not think something is worth X amount but believes somebody will pay X amount, they better have a darn good reason for saying so. Otherwise they're just blowing smoke in the echo chamber, which can lead to blurred vision.

    Here's the thing about Shields. He might be a top 5 man-to-man cover corner, and I'd put him up against anybody in handling the deep sidelines one-on-one. He might be top 5 in ball skills as well. However, while he's improved as a tackler we can't say it's a strong suit. He's pretty average in zone coverage. He's relatively small in stature and his draft status is weak, factors which most teams will hold against him. He complained to the press that his tackling was fine when the coaches said it wasn't and everybody could see it wasn't. He's got a Packer championship ring tatooed on his neck, which even by today's standards is a little weird (and not very forward thinking given the current circumstances). He's never even been a Pro Bowl alternate as best I can recall, which gives you an idea what the coaches around the league think of him.

    He has notable shortcomings (or shall we say imperfections) but he makes plays and he's a particularly good guy to have around when your safeties are unreliable, but that does not add up to $9 mil.

    And as far as the Packers leaking that Raji rejected an $8 mil offer, not unlike the Jennings situation, without seeing the details, we have no idea if that offer was structured in such a way that a turn-down was inevitable. Perhaps skimpy on the signing bonus and guarantees, heavy on the incentives...a play-for-pay-as-we-go deal and not a true core player's deal? Remember Finley's "$8 million dollar deal" for 2012 and 2013? There wasn't a penny of guarantee in that until opening day, and then only for the season like everybody else. Raji's 2011 and 2012 play would have warranted similar treatment...for a terrific talent that is underachieving.

    The fact the Packers leaked a figure along with it's rejection smells of a PR ploy to begin with. The Favre situation would make folks want to cover their backs with fans and press for the balance of the their careers, one would think.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2014
  13. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

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    We'll keep either Shields or BJ. One will walk, other stays. Im betting we lock up Shields and let BJ walk. You can get nice 3-4 NTs in the draft and with so many teams either going back to the 4-3 from the 3-4, or teams always in the 4-3, then 3-4 NTs will be 0'plenty in this coming draft. BJ is replaceable, Shields isnt.
     
  14. Vrill

    Vrill Cheesehead

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    and by the way, we really have four 4th rounders coming up? wow
     
  15. easyk83

    easyk83 Cheesehead

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    if we have that many fourth rounders expect Ted to make some big moves in the draft. Probably not in the first round but in rounds 2 and 3.
     
  16. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    If you listen to the podcast, you would get a better grasp of what they were talking about..

    They never said Shields was worth that 9 mill for the reason you stated..

    They were just saying if the Packers HAD to spend that 9 mill, they rather give it to Shields..Not that they would, just if they had to


    I think the 9 mill was tossed out because that is the franchise tag
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2014
  17. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    The scenario I give above is that TT wants to keep Shields, like he wanted to keep Jennings last year.
    But I anticipate another team out there will offer a substantially more amount of $ at him than TT will offer, which is more than you all think Sam will get as well. So sadly, very sadly, he walks.
    And hopefully, we don't pay Raji either as he's not worth it.

    So because of this unexpected loss of Sam, there's more cap space than originally anticipated.

    On Pollard: His grades show he was a fine safety this year. Here's the thing about him: He is physical. He will make the other DB's more accountable and toughen up.

    He's 8 years younger than Woodson. Has plenty left in the tank. He's a veteran but not old.

    This is Pollard last year, helping them get to the Super Bowl.
    Our safeties miss tackles. Wouldn't you like to have one who crushes people, causes occasional fumbles?





    <YEP that was flagged. But you know why Wayne dropped it? He heard Bernie's footsteps

     
  18. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    We will be getting a comp pick there for losing Greggy.
    The other 2 4th rounders are as a result of my mock of us trading our 3rd rounder for 2 4th rounders.
    MOCK.
    Ted tends to deal down quite often.
     
  19. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Rey is a RFA though, I don´t think the Bengals are willing to let him walk away.
     
  20. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Isn't the formula for comps not really known? How did you come to the 4th for Greg
     
  21. TJV

    TJV Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Do you know what happened on November, 24, 2011? It's the date BJ Raji last sacked a QB. While it's true the primary job of a DL in the base 3-4 is to take up blockers to free the LBs to make plays, the Packers under Capers have played sub Ds more often than base every season. And in sub packages, usually with 2 DL, the DL are freer to rush the passer and otherwise disrupt the offense, particularly on obvious passing downs. It was only this season that Raji was demoted from playing in sub packages and that IMO was because he played his way out of them.

    So the Raji/Shields question is a no-brainer IMO. I view Shields as the most valuable member of the secondary (although Tramon has played much better lately, Shields is younger). Thompson's MO is to draft, develop and retain the best players. Shields is one of the best players. While I'm relieved Raji hasn't been extended this season, I am concerned that Shields hasn't been. That's their MO for keeping players.
     
  22. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    I reviewed what similar players comp picks were in comparison, and this is my best guess, a 4th rounder.
    Contract value and production are certainly part of the formula. Exact formula as you said is not known. But this is a good guess.

    As long as you can guess it took to write and add all that info, triple it due to the website going down for awhile at that time.
     
  23. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    We'll see.
    He's not a starter for them, unless they part ways with Maualuga. And he doesn't have a large body of work.
    Certainly is not a big name who will generate overwhelming interest.
     
  24. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Ok..Makes sense now
     
  25. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Frank - I would love the Everson Griffen signing. That would be a TT-type signing. He's kind of an under the radar type guy because he plays behind Allen and B. Rob. But, he would be a terrific addition. He's huge, yet unbelievably athletic. So athletic that he was the gunner on punt coverage for the Vikes two seasons ago! That's insane for somebody his size. He would be a great replacement of Neal and also a potential DL rusher on sub-packages. We could run Griffen, Clay, D. Jones, Daniels, Perry out there to get after the QB. That's damn good!

    My concern is that he's not (or at least shouldn't be) that unknown for personnel people in the league. If I remember correctly, MMQB ran an article touting Griffen and his season later this past season. So, I wouldn't be surprised if he's a relatively hot commodity. I can still foresee him getting a richer contract than people may think because of his potential.

    And FWIW, he has a toddler son that lives in our area. My daughter's (who's the same age-ish) nanny is friends with Griffen's fiance. And by all accounts, Griffen seems like a nice guy (cue Tommy Boy voice).
     
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