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Not Going For 2

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by BorderRivals.com, Dec 16, 2013.

  1. mradtke66

    mradtke66 Cheesehead

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    I generally agree when MM goes for two--you're trying to shrink the gap quicker.

    Now, depending on who you rely on for stats, the 2 point conversion rate is somewhere between 45% and 55%. Depending on the offense, coaches should go for two more often, perhaps all the time. Simple math.

    Exactly 50% on 2 points would end up being worth slightly more than kicking extra points. While rare, there are occasional botched snaps, blocked kicks, etc, bringing down the actual conversion rate to about 99.95%. 0.5 * 2 = 1. 0.9995 * 1 < 1. If you can get your success rate over 50%, you're going to get more points. More points lead to more wins.

    I wouldn't be surprised if teams spent more time practicing 2 yard plays AND if they had a strong offense, they could convert 55% of 2's easily.
     
  2. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    A crock? You can look up the weather conditions for 11/17/13 at the Meadowlands. It's a little harder than looking up last week's box score, which you had some trouble with, but it's easily done nonetheless. That won't tell you that Crosby had a light wind at his back.

    A crock is citing a stadium record when the stadium's been open less than 4 years.

    As for chip shots, you don't know what you're talking about.

    The entire league has missed a total of 4 kicks inside 29 yards this year. I'm not going to do the math on this, but you can figure the make % from those distances is about 98%. We don't know how many of the 4 misses involved a bad snap, hold or a blocking breakdown and therefore not the kicker's fault. So, what should we conclude about a cold ball from 24 yards with a clean snap and hold that goes unblocked? The kick d*mn well better be good.

    33 yards is a chip shot in this league at any temperature as well; the ball's not THAT hard. In fact, it's a near-chip-shot in a BCS conference. This season, the league is 228 of 254 from 30-39 yards for 90%. That, of course, includes the bad kickers, the bad snaps and a bunch of kicks up to 6 yards longer. The 15 kickers with a better make % than Crosby this season are 124 for 133 for 93% in the 30-39 range.

    The fact of the matter is neither distance nor accuracy is a problem for NFL kickers at 33 yards at any temperature. It becomes a problem outside 40 where a kicker might think he has to put a little extra mustard on it, which affects accuracy as well.

    You started out confusing Met Life Stadium with Giants stadium, proceeded to confuse 2011 with 1999, and evidently ended by confusing Mason Crosby with Jerry Kramer.

    I do have an agenda with respect to Crosby...he's been overrated, inconsistent, and then overpaid, in that order, over the course of his career. He's a guy with a career record that says he does not belong in Lambeau Stadium in the winter. The good news is the Packers made him take a pay cut this past off season.

    I said he's having a good year, even if the elevation of league performance puts him in the middle of the pack. I said he might be an All Pro kicking in domes. Is this yet another case where you did not read what I wrote?

    So what's your agenda? Fantasy pick? Man crush? Personal acquaintance?
     
    Last edited: Dec 16, 2013
  3. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Since you tend not to read or comprehend my posts in their entirety before replying to them, and since you mentioned "Giant's Stadium" twice, I'd like to point out that Giants Stadium closed after the 2009 season. I believe it's been torn down for parking. I can't attest to the wind conditions in the Met Life Stadium parking lot. However, Josh Brown is 5-6 from 50+ this year.

    If Met Life Stadium has any kind of negative reputation, it might accrue to the fact that the Giants kicker from 2010-2012 was Lawrence Tynes. He sucked generally.
     
  4. Zeck180

    Zeck180 Cheesehead

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    last Sunday skins had chance to tie and go into over time and maybe win, but mikey too good for that tries a 2 pointer and loses.
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  5. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    I feel a little vindicated now. Barnwell's weekly "Thank you for not coaching" article listed MM not going for 2 as the third worst call of the weekend:

    The Three Worst Calls of Week 15
    3. The Packers don't go for two early on in their comeback over the Cowboys.Green Bay's second touchdown of the third quarter came with just over one minute remaining, when Matt Flynn found Andrew Quarles for a three-yard touchdown. It left the Packers down 29-16, pending the extra point. Mike McCarthy kicked the extra point to make it a 12-point contest, ensuring that the Packers would still need two touchdowns to tie the game or take the lead. In doing so, he passed on the opportunity to try a two-point conversion, which would have left the Packers down 13 with a miss or 11 with a make.

    The advantages to being down 11 are pretty clear: You can tie the game with a touchdown, another two-pointer, and a field goal. The disadvantages to staying down 13 (as opposed to kicking and going down 12) aren't really all that obvious. You're still down two touchdowns, but you can still take the lead if you produce both those scores. It's still a two-score game if Dallas kicks a field goal. It's a three-score game if Dallas scores a touchdown, but that's still the case if you kick the extra point.

    Indeed, this is one of the more obvious situations to try for a two-pointer; footballcommentary.com suggests that McCarthy should have gone for two if his team had a 29 percent chance of succeeding, which was surely true with room to spare.

    http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/86273/thank-you-for-not-coaching-week-15

    Now, I just need to find the "pat yourself on the back" button, and we'll be set :)
     

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