Ha, good point on Guards that are more like sieves. And yeah, T requires an extremely athletic big man.
ILB/WR Priority
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HardRightEdge
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That 30% snap count for the second ILB is pretty typical given that's roughly the base vs. nickle/dime snap split, more this season than last.
This defense could stand an upgrade at both ILB positions. For a run down specialist, Goodson was pretty underwhelming.
Consider Reggie Ragland, a guy PFF graded at 90 on a 37% snap count. You don't want that guy straying far from the line of scrimmage or expect him to chase down backs to the edge, but when you need a guy to defend the run between the tackles he's a good guy to have. And that type of player, a rotational specialist, is not expensive.
Interesting HRE. Is Ragland a FA this year?
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HardRightEdge
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Yes he is. The fact he's so far down the list of FAs being discussed due to the fact he is pegged as a base defense rotational player would make him a fairly low cost option to pair with a high coverage quotient player and an upgrade over Goodson.
In my opinion, the theoretical Queen/Ragland combo would be a considerable upgrade over last season without spending much of the cap to be applied elsewhere.
From the moneyball perspective, you're not going to find a Giambi...err, I mean Wagner...no matter how much cap or how high your pick. You look to replicate that as close as you can in the aggregate.
Whether it's Queen/Ragland or some like combination, I see a very tough short field defense getting that much better, and this is no small thing, not by a long shot.
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Agreed, and especially given the horrendous run D (and I’m not just referring to the NFCCG). Gluten has some options at ILB. FA doesn’t exactly overwhelm me, but I’d take Queen in a heartbeat if he were available at #30. This also saves cap space to bring in a veteran #2 WR to pair with Adams, or even an OT (I think GB will offer Bulaga a one-year deal and he’ll likely get a longer contract elsewhere). And you can never have too many good OTs, because there aren’t that many.
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HardRightEdge
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I think too much has been made over the SF game. In my view it was a bad game plan and mind set running headlong into arguably the best run blocking crew in the league. That said, the D-Line could stand for an upgrade somewhere in the mix with a good run stopper option for rotation and matchups. But fankly I don't expect Pettine to diverge much from his bend-don't-break approach.
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Gute Loot
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One interesting commonality among the top defenses in terms of DVOA is that almost all of them use multiple off-ball linebackers 70+% of the time.
The Patriots, 49ers, Steelers, Bucs, Bills, Vikings, and Bears all fit this description. The Ravens might have as well-- I'd have to cobble all the snap counts together as they went through several different options trying to find a combo that worked.
I think this matters, as being consistently light in personnel (e.g. Dime) will get you gashed on the ground more easily. But for it to work on passing downs, you need a linebacker who has coverage skills. The Packers had to either play a safety like Greene or Campbell next to Martinez, or a plugger like Goodson. Either way, they had a definite weakness on the field.
Oren Burks was meant to be the solution to this conundrum, but he obviously hasn't worked out so far. This is also why Cory Littleton is so appealing-- he is what Burks was drafted to be. But they might be priced out on that front. So they may end up searching for such a player again in the draft.
Akeem Davis-Gaither (App. State) gets a lot of attention in this vein, but I have read very mixed reviews about him actually playing in coverage. Just being light doesn't necessarily give a guy coverage ability. I will have to see what I think for myself when I get around to it.
Troy Dye (Oregon) is supposed to have cover skills, so that's another guy to watch.
Davion Taylor (Colorado) is a project, but could have the skills to get there.
Patrick Queen (LSU) fits the bill, but I tend to agree with those who think he's not getting all that close to pick #30.
Kyle Dugger (Lenoire Rhyne) is a small school star who most project to safety, but at 6'1" 220 lbs could just as easily be considered with these cover linebackers.
Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois) is similar, but didn't play as much close to the LOS so he's more of a projection into that role at 6'3" 219.
Josh Metellus (Michigan) could be the discount version at 5'11" 210 lbs, but now we're just getting into the Greene/Campbell territory of player.
The Patriots, 49ers, Steelers, Bucs, Bills, Vikings, and Bears all fit this description. The Ravens might have as well-- I'd have to cobble all the snap counts together as they went through several different options trying to find a combo that worked.
I think this matters, as being consistently light in personnel (e.g. Dime) will get you gashed on the ground more easily. But for it to work on passing downs, you need a linebacker who has coverage skills. The Packers had to either play a safety like Greene or Campbell next to Martinez, or a plugger like Goodson. Either way, they had a definite weakness on the field.
Oren Burks was meant to be the solution to this conundrum, but he obviously hasn't worked out so far. This is also why Cory Littleton is so appealing-- he is what Burks was drafted to be. But they might be priced out on that front. So they may end up searching for such a player again in the draft.
Akeem Davis-Gaither (App. State) gets a lot of attention in this vein, but I have read very mixed reviews about him actually playing in coverage. Just being light doesn't necessarily give a guy coverage ability. I will have to see what I think for myself when I get around to it.
Troy Dye (Oregon) is supposed to have cover skills, so that's another guy to watch.
Davion Taylor (Colorado) is a project, but could have the skills to get there.
Patrick Queen (LSU) fits the bill, but I tend to agree with those who think he's not getting all that close to pick #30.
Kyle Dugger (Lenoire Rhyne) is a small school star who most project to safety, but at 6'1" 220 lbs could just as easily be considered with these cover linebackers.
Jeremy Chinn (Southern Illinois) is similar, but didn't play as much close to the LOS so he's more of a projection into that role at 6'3" 219.
Josh Metellus (Michigan) could be the discount version at 5'11" 210 lbs, but now we're just getting into the Greene/Campbell territory of player.
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HardRightEdge
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I kind of get it for those who do. You could ask the same question about fantasy football vs. actual football. With both you are engaged with a lot of moving parts, players and cap, involving all 32 teams to one degree or another. It's the time of year to put on the armchair GM hat.
But if you can't take off that hat and put on the armchair coaches hat with equal engagment once the money games start it would strike me as excessively abstract.
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HardRightEdge
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In the absence of a true 3 down ILB, equally effective in both run and pass, you're looking at 3 players.
Lets say your 3 down guy's strength is in coverage, a WILL (derived from "weak side") type, which is kind of misnomer since he may often line up over the TE in a coverage role or in various front alignments. Positioning is a matter of matchups, game plan, down and distance. Anyway, that's the Littleton or Queen type.
So, first you have base downs, 1st. down against half or most opponents, short yardage, goal line, and maybe more against opponents that like to run a lot. In that case, you need that run stopper on the field. That's your Goodson-type or Ragland-type in my hypothetical Queen-Ragland combo. That's accounts for 30% of snaps, give or take from week to week depending on matchups and how down-and-distances happen to fall out.
At the other extreme, there are the obvious passing downs where you would swap out that Goodson-Ragland type for that hypbrid ILB. Going back to an an earler discussion, whether you call that guy an ILB or a box safety or a DB, and whether you call that a nickel or dime defense, is a matter of positioning in my mind. If that guy is in the box in a ILB position, to play press over the TE or blitzing or dropping in short zone, he's an ILB in a nickel coverage. If he's outside the box he's a DB in a dime coverage or quarters coverage in a rush-3 call.
Regardless of what you call that guy or what you call that defense, Goodson or Ragland is not the optimal guy for a coverage or blitz assignment. So, in comes your hybrid strong safety type, variously Greene or Ibrahim or Amos very briefly early last season or some
Then there are the mass of tweener downs, anything from 2nd. and 8 to 3rd. and 2 depending on that offense's habits, field position, game situation. For example, whether McCarthy or LaFluer, you could probably count the 3rd. and 3 runs over the course of a season on one hand, maybe one finger. So the rotational down split between your run stopping specialist base player and your hybrid ILB player would vary from game to game according to the game plan or injury/availability.
Rotational specialists are not expensive even if they are good enough to fill their role. You don't want a guy who is a stiff in the other aspects of the game for those snaps where the offense crosses you up. That's why hybrid ILBs are strong safety types and not CB types who have some chance of making a play in the run game and you don't want some leadfoot in the base D who can't do something if the play is not a run between the tackles.
Lets say your 3 down guy's strength is in coverage, a WILL (derived from "weak side") type, which is kind of misnomer since he may often line up over the TE in a coverage role or in various front alignments. Positioning is a matter of matchups, game plan, down and distance. Anyway, that's the Littleton or Queen type.
So, first you have base downs, 1st. down against half or most opponents, short yardage, goal line, and maybe more against opponents that like to run a lot. In that case, you need that run stopper on the field. That's your Goodson-type or Ragland-type in my hypothetical Queen-Ragland combo. That's accounts for 30% of snaps, give or take from week to week depending on matchups and how down-and-distances happen to fall out.
At the other extreme, there are the obvious passing downs where you would swap out that Goodson-Ragland type for that hypbrid ILB. Going back to an an earler discussion, whether you call that guy an ILB or a box safety or a DB, and whether you call that a nickel or dime defense, is a matter of positioning in my mind. If that guy is in the box in a ILB position, to play press over the TE or blitzing or dropping in short zone, he's an ILB in a nickel coverage. If he's outside the box he's a DB in a dime coverage or quarters coverage in a rush-3 call.
Regardless of what you call that guy or what you call that defense, Goodson or Ragland is not the optimal guy for a coverage or blitz assignment. So, in comes your hybrid strong safety type, variously Greene or Ibrahim or Amos very briefly early last season or some
Then there are the mass of tweener downs, anything from 2nd. and 8 to 3rd. and 2 depending on that offense's habits, field position, game situation. For example, whether McCarthy or LaFluer, you could probably count the 3rd. and 3 runs over the course of a season on one hand, maybe one finger. So the rotational down split between your run stopping specialist base player and your hybrid ILB player would vary from game to game according to the game plan or injury/availability.
Rotational specialists are not expensive even if they are good enough to fill their role. You don't want a guy who is a stiff in the other aspects of the game for those snaps where the offense crosses you up. That's why hybrid ILBs are strong safety types and not CB types who have some chance of making a play in the run game and you don't want some leadfoot in the base D who can't do something if the play is not a run between the tackles.
