Going For 2

[adambr2]

I guess I misstated my question which really should have been why do you feel the home team has a decided advantage in OT? Just because the home team has won 54% of the time doesn't necessarily make it an advantage. I suppose you could say that having the home crowd would be a slight advantage, but that's about the only thing. I would suspect that whoever scored last would have more of an advantage since they should have the momentum. I just don't think being the home team has much of an advantage in OT, certainly not a 'decided advantage'.

I should rephrase my point so it is a little less confusing or misleading. When I say the home team has a decided advantage, I mean an advantage strictly from being the home team. By choosing OT, you accept that disadvantage. The home team usually wins, and you're basically challenging the home team to a sudden death short game.

If you choose to go for 2, you nullify that advantage for the home team. While home field will make a difference over the course of an entire game or overtime, it's not going to make a difference on a 1 play, 2 yard, convert or go home situation.

I'm just surprised that many of us buy into conventional wisdom so much that we actually feel that making a 33 yard field goal, winning a coin toss, driving down for the winning score, or stopping the other team from driving if they win the toss, on the road against the #1 offense in the NFL, is a better proposition for us than simply putting in Aaron Rodgers hands and asking him to somehow get it in the endzone from 2 yards away.

 

[Crockett&Tubbs]

I was tweeting and telling people that we should go for 2 & the win if we get the chance, and I was saying that before our defense held them to a FG to keep it a 7-point game.

I knew our playoff overtime record was catastrophic, dating back to the Eagles loss with Favre. I didn't know McCarthy overall is just 1-8-1 in overtime. That's atrocious and seems like it's more than just coincidence with that many in the books.

I believe we would have scored from the 2-yard line, however, remember how we lost games late at Carolina and Chicago this season, and our goalline struggles are well-known.

But I was planning way ahead, and I would have called a play very similar to the one at Carolina where Cobb got open in motion pre-snap, but Rodgers didn't throw to him. The scary thing was that this would have been called for Abbrederis.

What play would you guys have called?
A QB draw?
A shovel pass like Fitzgerald beat us on?

 

[adambr2]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/blogs/...-the-packers-cardinals-classic-071409392.html

Here's another article that perfectly illustrates the mistake we made kicking the XP. After the miracle TD, the outcome was in the hands of our best player. We could have left it there. Sure, it would have still been utterly disappointing to lose if it didn't work, but at least we would have known we lost it on the field right there trying to win it with our best player.

Instead, we left it up to the fate of a coin flip, and our best player never got another snap.

 

[pacmaniac]

You know that if we went for 2, either Janis or Abby would've been open, but then Rodgers would have thrown one way and Janis/Abby would have broken the other way.

 

[MadCat]

I'm not concerned with whatever Rodgers' last memory of the season is. I'm concerned with whatever gives us the best chance to win and advance.

No idea if Rodgers made any such suggestions, but we all know what Rodgers would have said if MM had asked if he wanted to stay out there and try to win it now.

I didn't say anything about Rodgers' last memory of the season.

And of course we all know what Rodgers would have said. That's why I'm asking. Since the experts all agree we should have gone for 2, I'm surprised Rodgers didn't push MM to go for it.

 

[adambr2]

You know that if we went for 2, either Janis or Abby would've been open, but then Rodgers would have thrown one way and Janis/Abby would have broken the other way.

I'd have lined up shotgun and run a rare Packer QB draw. But nothing was guaranteed.

 

[Crockett&Tubbs]

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/blogs/...-the-packers-cardinals-classic-071409392.html

Here's another article that perfectly illustrates the mistake we made kicking the XP. After the miracle TD, the outcome was in the hands of our best player. We could have left it there. Sure, it would have still been utterly disappointing to lose if it didn't work, but at least we would have known we lost it on the field right there trying to win it.

Instead, we left it up to the fate of a coin flip.

That's painful to watch, read, see......

 

[El Guapo]

Our defense did it's job against AZ. Rodgers was struggling at the end of the game. He wasn't connecting except for 4th down prayers and last second hail mary's. That was not momentum it was luck, from our best player who hasn't been playing his best. I was fully in favor of rolling with our defense and either getting a stop and then hoping AR could get into FG range.

 

[greenbeard]

Who was the best unit that day until the OT? It was our Defense allowing the Nr. 1 Offense , at home to score just 20 pts(they scored 30 Pts per game in the regular season). And the last arizona TD was a tipped ball that landed right in the hands of floyd. Our Offense struggeld the whole game, with our top wr out. They were struggeling the whole season in the redzone. No coach in the NFL (not even super aggresive Arians or carrol) whould have gone for two. Mccarthy trusted the defense, because they were the better performing unit in the game.

 

[Zartan]

MM made the right call. If they went and failed game would of ended right there. In OT you have better chance to win.

 

[adambr2]

MM made the right call. If they went and failed game would of ended right there. In OT you have better chance to win.

If they would have went and succeeded the game would have also ended right there.

 

[adambr2]

No coach in the NFL (not even super aggresive Arians or carrol) whould have gone for two.

Speculation, I highly doubt this is true, and to me that just goes back to making a call because it is 'conventional wisdom.'

The Steelers made a living this year off defying conventional wisdom and going for 2.

 

[adambr2]

For what its worth as much as I favored going for the 2 I do understand the other side. It has to be considered that Rodgers was without his full complement of weapons, well basically without any of his top weapons. So you have to trust guys that he doesn't have a strong rapport with, which I'm sure was a nerve-wracking proposition for 1 play from the 2.

 

[El Guapo]

The other thing is that McCarthy rarely has a trick play up his sleeve, similar to what Arians called for Fitzgerald at the goal line. I wouldn't mind seeing Tretter as a tackle eligible sneaking out for a surprise catch, assuming that he's got hands. Not knowing that we have those type of plays, it would have been a Lacy run up the gut or Rodgers rolling out trying to force a tight throw somewhere. Both make me cringe right now.

 

[G0P4ckG0]

Of course I believe in my team, but by going for 2 you are putting the entire game on just a single play.

You're also putting the entire game on the line by kicking the extra point. No guarantee that it will be made, plus it forces you into an overtime scenario where there is no guarantee that you will have a chance to score. Not going for the win when they had the opportunity was idiotic, especially with the history of this defense late in games.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You're also putting the entire game on the line by kicking the extra point. No guarantee that it will be made, plus it forces you into an overtime scenario where there is no guarantee that you will have a chance to score. Not going for the win when they had the opportunity was idiotic, especially with the history of this defense late in games.

Crosby made all extra points this season while teams only converted 48.4% of the two point conversions this season. It was the right call.

 

[Half Empty]

Crosby made all extra points this season while teams only converted 48.4% of the two point conversions this season. It was the right call.

This is obviously just a rant-and-vent thread, but it looks like what you said is that by kicking the EP, the Pack virtually guaranteed themselves a 50/50 chance at getting the ball versus an almost identical chance of winning outright.

The easy answer for me is that, because of the outcome, this is an issue. If they'd have gone for 2 and made it, no question. Go for 2 and miss, we'd have this thread with the reverse question.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

This is obviously just a rant-and-vent thread, but it looks like what you said is that by kicking the EP, the Pack virtually guaranteed themselves a 50/50 chance at getting the ball versus an almost identical chance of winning outright.

Not getting the ball to start overtime doesn´t automatically result in losing. Since the league changed the OT rule 46.2% of the teams kicking off have won the game, overall it seems the win probability is close to being the same than going for two. You have to realize though that the Packers have had huge troubles in short yardage situations all season long.

 

[Un4GivN]

This is obviously just a rant-and-vent thread, but it looks like what you said is that by kicking the EP, the Pack virtually guaranteed themselves a 50/50 chance at getting the ball versus an almost identical chance of winning outright.

The easy answer for me is that, because of the outcome, this is an issue. If they'd have gone for 2 and made it, no question. Go for 2 and miss, we'd have this thread with the reverse question.

I completely agree... with this.

But the Odds are actually in your favor going for two. NFL teams will get this sooner or later, though they are hard in their ways. While there is certain reasons to go for 1. Like if it puts you ahead. Or even early in the game if you choose.

You have a 50 percent chance of winning the coin toss. But even if you win you have to go 80 yards to seal that game. What are those odds? What is the percentage of 80 yard drives for touchdowns that the Packers had this year. Against top rated defense no less. I bet much less than 50 percent... Is my guess.

Statistically speaking... your odds were much better to win the game going for 2. Over 50 percent, and the Packers have faired well in this category this year. BUT it is also a risk of media fall out if you fail. MM went the safe route.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I completely agree... with this.

But the Odds are actually in your favor going for two. NFL teams will get this sooner or later, though they are hard in their ways. While there is certain reasons to go for 1. Like if it puts you ahead. Or even early in the game if you choose.

You have a 50 percent chance of winning the coin toss. But even if you win you have to go 80 yards to seal that game. What are those odds? What is the percentage of 80 yard drives for touchdowns that the Packers had this year. Against top rated defense no less. I bet much less than 50 percent... Is my guess.

Statistically speaking... your odds were much better to win the game going for 2. Over 50 percent, and the Packers have faired well in this category this year. BUT it is also a risk of media fall out if you fail. MM went the safe route.

The Packers ranked 31st in the league with a conversion rate of 27.8% on third- or fourth-and-2 this season. Taking a look at this number the probability was much higher to win in OT.

 

[adambr2]

Crosby made all extra points this season while teams only converted 48.4% of the two point conversions this season. It was the right call.

You still only have a 46% chance of winning in OT as the road team, so that's very debatable.

I certainly didn't put our OT odds at 50/50 as a road underdog. I would also put the XP odds at 98% which would subtract 1% from your odds playing for the tie. Just because he hadn't missed an XP all season doesn't mean he had a 100% chance of converting.

 

[Un4GivN]

The Packers ranked 31st in the league with a conversion rate of 27.8% on third- or fourth-and-2 this season. Taking a look at this number the probability was much higher to win in OT.

What about 2 point conversion?

Also... What is the rate of touchdowns in 80 yards drives against top rated defense? Probably still lower than 27 percent.

Statistically I still think you are very very wrong... This is basically what I do for a living. And I can't see how your odds would be better to drive the field 80 yards than getting 2 yards. It is against all logic.

 

[adambr2]

The Packers ranked 31st in the league with a conversion rate of 27.8% on third- or fourth-and-2 this season. Taking a look at this number the probability was much higher to win in OT.

But they also converting 2's (including playoffs) at a rate of 71.4%.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

What about 2 point conversion?

Well, the Packers were 4-for-6 on two point conversions this season, which is a pretty small sample size.

Also... What is the rate of touchdowns in 80 yards drives against top rated defense? Probably still lower than 27 percent.

Statistically I still think you are very very wrong... This is basically what I do for a living. And I can't see how your odds would be better to drive the field 80 yards than getting 2 yards. It is against all logic.

Do you understand that an 80-yard drive to start overtime isn´t the only way to win the game in OT???

 

[jkhood74]

Folks, remember just how bad the Pack was this year inside the red zone, on third down, etc. It would have been fun to watch, but we all know that if you do not make it, EVERYONE is shouting for MM's and TT's head today!!!!