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HardRightEdge
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There were reports that Jennings turned down an $11M/year contract offer from the Packers and that he was seeking $15M/year in 2012. You can find those reports and/or references to them if you do a search.
If your hypothesis is Nelson will not be re-signed/extended by the Packers, IMO that is only “reinforced” when Nelson signs with another team. When Thompson used his first pick of the 2008 draft on Nelson, the Packers had no immediate need at the position and it didn’t portend the departure of the three WRs ahead of Nelson in the near future.
I see a sbnation piece from March 2013 indicating Jennings was asking for that $15 mil in the "2012 offseason". I take that to mean after the 2012 season. When I began to conjecture that Jennings would not be re-signed, somewhere around game 7 of the 2012 season, give or take, I recall no reports of Jennings' excessive demands. In fact, NO ONE in these pages offered even a hint of agreement, such as "you might have a point given what he's asking". So I'll leave any further searching to you.
The oft-repeated conventional wisdom that Nelson was not a need pick because there was no "immediate need" is somewhat ironic since that situation is relatively similar to this draft, or even the Cobb draft.
Here are the receiving stats for the 2007 season, the year before Nelson's draft, which I'll reference later:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/team/stats/_/name/gb/year/2007
Driver was going to be 33 going into the 2008 season. Given that nearly all NFL receivers need at least one year and usually two to become particularly productive, a pick in 2008 would be preparation for 2009 or 2010, when Driver would be hitting 34 or 35 years of age.
To further illustrate the necessity of advance planning for the wide receiver position, as recently as the 2012 training camp McCarthy noted that he was adding to Nelson's route tree for the upcoming season...his 5th. year in the league. By 2013, Nelson had become a fully polished receiver, running anything anybody could want out of wideout or slot as Jennings had done previously. I wouldn't mention that PFF named Nelson their All Pro slot receiver for 2013 if that did not happen to sync up with my eye test...5 seasons to be worked in as multi-tool; 6 seasons to progress to full potential. One might even argue that Nelson's introduction to the full route tree in 2012 was an additional, if more subtle, indicator of advance planning for Jennings departure.
At this stage I'd place Nelson's market value on a par with the 2013 version of Jennings...same age, similar accomplishments, similar speed, similar hands, similar route running bona fides, similar versatility. Nelson might draw a bit more interest because of some organizations' bias toward bigger wideouts.
Further still, it's clear through 3 seasons that Cobb has more pieces to be added to his route tree and more polish to be added to his option reads.
So, getting back to the aforementioned stat link, we had Driver, Jennings, Jones and "just guys" Martin and Robinson going into the 2008 draft. We were already an offense heavy in the 3 WR sets. Driver was aging. Jones had one year under his belt but wasn't showing sufficient flash (as Cobb had done as a rookie, for example) to suggest he'd be more than a good #3 (or a serviceable #2 in an rebuilding situation as is his current lot). I can't recall if he was dropping a lot of balls in 2007, but I do recall he was running a lot of short routes with 47 catches in 80 targets...not particularly auspicious.
In my mind there are 4 positions on the football field that require multi-year advance planning:
1. QB, for obvious reasons.
2. WR, for the reasons touched on above, and to get on the same page as the QB. Half of Rodgers INTs over the years come from the receiver zigging when Rodgers is zagging. The vet QB / rookie WR disconnect is hardly unique.
3. Cover corner, where small mistakes can be very costly. Even a guy like Shields, who displayed shockingly good speed and ball skills as a rookie, wasn't trusted to cover #1 receivers on a regular basis until 2013, his 4th. season, despite the fact Williams was a minor disaster in 2012.
4. LT, where even high pick rookies usually spend a year apprenticship at RT. Again, this is a position where small mistakes can lead to big trouble.
This is why, after the signings of Raji, Peppers and Guion, I elevated WR over D-Line as a draft priority.
With Williams in a his contract year and House being one of those guys where too many mistakes per snap should give one pause, a cover corner should be on the radar.
If we were to take a WR in the first 2 rounds for a Nelson-like pick, there will be hue and clamor that it was contrary to more "immediate needs" (safety seems to be the most popular choice, though I disagree, clearly, as indicated in previous posts.)
Then, if Nelson were not resigned in free agency, the need will still not have become evident to the rank-and-file fans and reporters in retrospect, just as the timeliness of the Nelson pick in light of Driver's injury/decline is not now appreciated in retrospect, as though the Nelson pick was some happy accident and not a prudent hedging of bets at a critical skill position.
It astounds me to this day how few people appreciate the critically needed advance planning that was executed with the Rodgers pick in light of the Favre shenanigans. I wonder if Belichick takes a QB in the first or second round, as he is evidently scouting, whether Patriot fans will consider it a "best available player" move when in fact it would be prudent and critical advance planning.
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