Draft thoughts and theories

[Schultz]

Typing this while waiting to watch Jeopardy. I have come to the conclusion there is no need to move from pick 29. I will break guys into tiers. The first tier will be 29 players. Here are my 6 - 5 packs.
Round 1
QBs- pretty obvious 5 of them will go in the top 29 picks. No need to name them.
OL- My 5 pack is Sewell, Slater, Darrisaw, AVT & Jenkins. You may have these guys in a different order or you may have 1 or 2 different guys. You may think Little is worthy even after almost 2 years off or that Cosmi is better than Jenkins but I think most will agree that at least 5 of these guys will go.
CB- Surtain, Horn, Farley, Newsome & Samuel. Same drill as I know at least 1 is high on Stokes. You may not trust Farley's health or prefer guys like Molden, Holland or Robinson but I think you will agree at least 5 of these guys will go.
WR- Chase, Waddle, Smith, Marshall & Bateman. Same theory, if you think Smith is too small you may include E.Moore. If you like Smith you may prefer Toney or R.Moore over one of these guys. Again I predict at least 5 of these guys go in the top 29.
I call this group the miscellaneous 5 pack. TE-Pitts, DL-Barmore, S- Moehring- RB- Etiene or Harris Edge- Olujari. If a RB does not go I believe either a 6th WR or another edge guy goes. Paye, Rousseau, Oweh or Phillips.
I am the least confident in my LB 5 pack. Parsons, J.O.K, Collins, Davis, Bolton or Cox. I honestly think only 4 of these guys go in the top 29. But six 5 packs equals 30 players so we have a spot to spare.

I really do think a RB will go as I have Miami taking a WR then a RB with their 2 1st round picks. Will they take Smith or Waddle and then Harris for an Alabama reunion with Tua? Also Edge is the wildcard position in the 1st round. So the Packers are guaranteed to get 1 of these 29 guys. Obviously needs wise we hope a OT or CB is still their. If all 10 of them were chosen I would be fine with one of those top 5 receivers. If they are gone then I will not be disappointed in one of the top 4 LBs. I would not even take a LB in this draft unless you get 1 of the top 7 out there. I do not see any of the others being that much better than the guys we have to use a pick on them. Then come the misc. guys. I do not think anyone should have a problem if Darmore, Pitts or Moehring are there at 29. So the Packers need either 1 RB and 1 Edge to get selected or multiple E guys to assure themselves a quality 1st rounder. I am pretty confident that both of those things will happen.

 

[Schultz]

He was pretty good. I enjoyed the half hour. Now I am not saying he was quit your day job good or anything like that. So let's move on to tier 2. Tier 2 will need to consist of 33 players in order to reach pick 62. A lot more 4 packs this time. For this exercise I am assuming 1 RB and 1 Edge were drafted to complete 29 picks.

Edge- That leaves Paye, Phillips, Oweh, Rousseau and add Ossai.
WR- E. Moore, Toney, Wallace and R. Moore.
LB- Cox, Bolton, Surratt and Browning.
IOL- ****erson, Meienerz, Davis & T.Smith.
OT- Cosmi, Mayfield, Leatherwood and Little.
CB- Stokes, Campbell, Molden, Robinson, Holland & Melifonwu.
DL- Nixon, McNeil, Onwuzuke and Basham.
RB- Etiene or Harris.
QB- Trask
You may have had some of these guys in tier 1 or even tier 3. But this gives me some sort of idea just what could be there at 62. GB needs a RB to be selected since they will not be drafting one until later rounds if at all. I would be fine with any of these guys or anybody from my tier 1 that fell here. Except Trask of course. On the other hand if Trask was still there I believe this pick would become a nice trade chip. I wonder just when the QB desperation/panic will begin. Something has to give since their is much more demand than supply.

 

[Schultz]

I am not trying to predict the draft just using some common sense to get a feel of just what type of player (not the exact player) that could be available at each pick. On to tier 3. 30 more players gets us to pick 92.
DL- Tufele, Togai, Odeyingo & M. Williams.
DB- Abedo, Rochelle, St. Juste, Grant, J. Johnson, Cisco, Nasirildeen and Joseph.
WR- Collins, Rodgers, St. Brown, Eskridge, D. Brown and Atwell.
IOL- Humphrey, Banks, D. Brown and Meyers.
OT- Radunz, Brown & Carman.
E- Tryon and Rumph
LB- Moses
RB- Williams
QB- Mond or Mills or Newman.
Repeat- need at least 1 RB to go this round. If a QB needy team has a higher grade on 1 of those 3 guys than most pick 92 will turn into a nice trade chip.

 

[Schultz]

Tier 4. Getting tougher to find guys who can help right away. Because of compensatory picks need 43 guys to get to the next pick at 135.
OL- Christensen, Eichenberg, Hudson, Cleveland, Hutcherson and Menet.
CB- Vincent, Brown, Mukuamu, Thomas, Trill, Wade and Graham.
DL- Twyman, Tupolutu, Shelvin, Wilson, Brown, Odighiz & Marshall.
S- Sterns, Ford, Washington and Gillespie.
E- J.Smith, Rashed and Sample.
LB- McGrone, Werner, Perkins & Snowden.
WR- Schwartz, Terry, Stevensen, Darden, ISM, Palmer, Newsome & Shi Smith.
RB- Carter and Gainwell
QB- 2 of these 3. Mond, Mills, Newman.
Someone had the idea of moving up to 129 from Seattle. Probably a good idea. As I stated earlier I would not take a LB, RB, QB and probably not even a DL (if they already chose one) in this round. There are a couple of interesting trade scenarios depending when the QB desperation/panic happens. Hopefully at the end of a round not the beginning or middle. Of course once Atlanta trades back this would have to be reevaluated.

 

[Sanguine camper]

One way to approach the draft is to align the round with certain position groups that historically have provided good value.
Round 1- LT, QB, CB, edge rusher and IDL if the player can rush the passer and stop the run.
Round 2 - WR, IDL, S, G, RT
Round 3 - TE, ILB, C, G, S
Round 4 - RB, IOL, IDL run stuffer, ILB
Round 5 - RB, FB, IOL, WR
Rounds 6,7 - Special Teams ,K P KR, Long Snapper

 

[tynimiller]

I think there is more likelihood only Parsons and Wusu are the only listed LBs drafted in the first round than we see 4 or 5 LBs drafted in first round. I think you'll see a massive rush for them between picks 33-55 though and by the time 62 rolls around Chazz Surratt will be the top prospect left on my board - whom I like but not #62 worth IMO

 

[Schultz]

1. So you are not buying into the Davis moving up boards hype?
2. How many OL and DB to you forecast to be picked before GB at 29?

 

[Poppa San]

1. So you are not buying into the Davis moving up boards hype?
2. How many OL and DB to you forecast to be picked before GB at 29?

IMO in the first round 6 QBs, 7 QB targets (skill), 4 QB protectors, 9 QB attackers, and 6 QB defenders (DB).

 

[Schultz]

I honestly hope you are correct. That would mean the Packers could get the 4th best protector on their board at the very least.

 

[tynimiller]

1. So you are not buying into the Davis moving up boards hype?
2. How many OL and DB to you forecast to be picked before GB at 29?

Okay force me into a corner for a best guess I'll have to list them out:

QBs - 5 go for sure before GB is there. I think Trask has an outside chance of someone trading up LATE Day 1 for him..but you're speaking before 29 so 5.

RBs - I think 2 go in the first and both before us.

TE - Pitts - 1

WRs - Chase, Waddle, Smith, Bateman, chance one of Marshall, Toney, Moore and Moore - I'll say 5

OLs - Sewell, Slater, AVT, Darrisow, Jenkins are locks for me gone.... I think one of the following slip in too Mayfield, Eichenberg, ****erson, Humphrey, Cosmi ----so I'll say 5 gone

CBs - Horn, Farley, Surtain and Newsome I think are gone by then. Chance of Stokes too...I'll say 4 though.

LBs - Wusu and Parsons - 2

S - Moehrig - 1

EDGE - Phillips, Ojulari - 2

DL - Barmore - 1

 

[Schultz]

That would leave one of your maybe OL, WR or Stokes or Samuel. I can live with any of them.

 

[tynimiller]

That would leave one of your maybe OL, WR or Stokes or Samuel. I can live with any of them.

IF it fell as I stated and I don't want to pick Barmore, Zaven or Nico Collins, I'm trying to find a trade back partner with still a top 40/44 type pick and other picks. Position myself to keep an eye on a few target guys like Adebo or Samuel or Melinfonwu or Nico Collins or Elijah Moore types that I maybe didn't feel worth the 29th pick, but would definitely be worth moving to grab in the 2nd and possibly walk away with no 1st round pick but three picks on Day 2.