Did the Packers draft a QB one year too early?

[RepStar15]

If they traded up to get a someone they ID'd as a back up, then it was one of the truly dumbest decisions in the history of the NFL.

Not disagreeing, but asking an honest question. Given the Packers record without Rodgers, would it be that crazy to prioritize a backup QB with a 37 year old QB1?

 

[Mondio]

Not disagreeing, but asking an honest question. Given the Packers record without Rodgers, would it be that crazy to prioritize a backup QB with a 37 year old QB1?

If they don't view that QB as having the potential to be THE Man at QB, I think it's crazy to trade up and draft that in the first round given all the other needs this team had/has. If their thought process was, "well he'll be a better back up than Boyle, let's go get him" I'm guessing they won't be in charge of the GB Packers much longer making decisions like that.

But I think they're smarter than that. More likely they thought, "Man that guy is going to be really really good at the most important position on the field, let's go get him"

We'll find out if they're right or not.

 

[Pkrjones]

Why on earth would teams that passed over Love in 2020 now line up to draft him in the top five this year???

Desperation. SF just gave away #12 and 2 future 1st rounders to move up to #3. Carolina is thought to be considering a major trade to move up from #8. The Bears, sitting at #20, KNOW that they don't have a shot at a top-5 QB with Denver, NE & Washington in front of them.

 

[Dantés]

They drafted him at least 3 years too early. Yes, I used hyperbole. They didn't view him as once-in-a-decade, they just viewed him as once-in-five-years.

The excuse that "he was too good to pass up, they'll not have a chance at a player as good in the next 3-5 drafts" is just lazy excuse making. It's ridiculous to think that no quarterback drafted after the 26th pick in the next 3 drafts won't be any good. I don't think you can look at Michael Penix (the autocorrect on that name is expectedly awkward), Grayson McCall, or Myles Brennan and say none of those guys are definitively worse or won't be available next season. And that's just looking 2 years out.

Packers could REALLY have used Tee Higgins, Chase Claypool, Shenault, Pittman, or even Mims far more than Love; might have actually helped the Packers get a single first down against the Bucs after 2 fourth quarter interceptions. Added bonus, those players would almost certainly have helped THIS year's team more as well, and probably next year's team too!

I think this is another instance of hyperbole.

Not knowing the inner working of the Packers' front office, this is my theory regarding their thinking:

The prospects they liked at other positions being gone, and a QB that they had a big grade on sliding down, they decided to invest in the future of the QB situation early for that dual reason: 1) not loving the other options and 2) really liking the player.

Their scouting department grades every QB every year. It seems to be the case that they especially liked Love compared to others that they could reasonably expect to be available where they expect to pick moving forward. It's absurd to look ahead two years and assume that current sophomores in college will be facsimiles of a particular player in the 2020 class.

You don't have to like it, but that's what I think happened. I like/understand the thinking in ways, and not in others. Obviously yes, they could have taken a player that would be more helpful in the present. They traded short term benefit for the potential of much larger long term benefit.

But posters like you, still up in your feelings about not drafting a WR, have to grapple with the reality that the team turned around and put up one of the best offensive seasons in league history, and that WR was definitively not the reason they lost in the NFCCG. Maybe just an ounce or two of humility that they have some idea what they're doing would be appropriate. Just a thought.

 

[Dantés]

If the Packers like Love's progress and feel he is ready to take over the reigns in 2022, then they could theoretically acquire two 1st round picks plus extra draft capital (comp to Stafford trade) and close to 50M in cap relief between 2022 and 2023, the last two years of Love's rookie deal.

Moving on from a HOF quarterback is going to be painful whenever it happens.

But you could do a lot worse than being in position to move on to a 23 year old 1st round pick that you've groomed for two seasons, along with a war chest of new assets to build around him with both veteran talent and high end rookies.

It's much more common that teams trying to get their next franchise QB have to give up those resources to get their guy, as opposed to acquiring them to build around said player.

 

[tynimiller]

If the Packers like Love's progress and feel he is ready to take over the reigns in 2022, then they could theoretically acquire two 1st round picks plus extra draft capital (comp to Stafford trade) and close to 50M in cap relief between 2022 and 2023, the last two years of Love's rookie deal.

Moving on from a HOF quarterback is going to be painful whenever it happens.

But you could do a lot worse than being in position to move on to a 23 year old 1st round pick that you've groomed for two seasons, along with a war chest of new assets to build around him with both veteran talent and high end rookies.

It's much more common that teams trying to get their next franchise QB have to give up those resources to get their guy, as opposed to acquiring them to build around said player.

Either way, Gutes' longterm future to flirt with 10 years as GM will hinge on how well this transfer occurs, no matter when. I HATE thinking of a day without Rodgers, however I 100% hated the thought of a day without Favre as well.

 

[PikeBadger]

Unfortunately he won't have an excellent receiving corps to rely on aside of Adams.

How do you know that? Got a better crystal ball than the rest of us?

 

[tynimiller]

How do you know that? Got a better crystal ball than the rest of us?

Do not question Capt's definitive statements about the future. How dare you...

 

[AmishMafia]

As mentioned above if they traded up to draft a backup for Rodgers it was a stupid move. They better were convinced that Love has the ability to develop into a franchise quarterback.

Semantics I suppose.

I don't know that any team is convinced any QB will succeed. The hit rate on QBs is less than 50% when you get into the late 1st round and not much better in the top of the first. But the position is so important, it is wise to take the shot when you can if you have a need. So any QB you draft you still have to hope.

Burrow, Lawrence and maybe Zack Wilson seem to have a very good chance to become at the least very good QBs, but they are gone in the first 2 picks.

 

[Dantés]

Either way, Gutes' longterm future to flirt with 10 years as GM will hinge on how well this transfer occurs, no matter when. I HATE thinking of a day without Rodgers, however I 100% hated the thought of a day without Favre as well.

Yep, it's hard to let go of amazing players.

However, Rodgers is 37, and it's Gutekunst's job to maintain the franchise, not be sentimental.

If (and these are certainly not givens by any means), Love is good and there is a big offer on the table for Rodgers, I think the risk of passing would outweigh the risk of trading.

 

[PikeBadger]

Either way, Gutes' longterm future to flirt with 10 years as GM will hinge on how well this transfer occurs, no matter when. I HATE thinking of a day without Rodgers, however I 100% hated the thought of a day without Favre as well.

Lol, my feelings were the opposite about Favre. I was very ready to move on to Rodgers. I had grown tired of his annual flirtation with retirement. I thought Thompson and McCarthy handled the Favre situation very well.

 

[tynimiller]

Yep, it's hard to let go of amazing players.

However, Rodgers is 37, and it's Gutekunst's job to maintain the franchise, not be sentimental.

If (and these are certainly not givens by any means), Love is good and there is a big offer on the table for Rodgers, I think the risk of passing would outweigh the risk of trading.

Honestly, if Love was ready I think you'd have heard some real fire in the discussion with Miami and Jets for Rodgers...just a year too early IMO

Lol, my feelings were the opposite about Favre. I was very ready to move on to Rodgers. I had grown tired of his annual flirtation with retirement. I thought Thompson and McCarthy handled the Favre situation very well.

Oh don't read that wrong, I was annoyed with Favre's annual retire trip...but still hated the unknown idea of moving on from a Packer Legend and HoFer

 

[tynimiller]

Yep, it's hard to let go of amazing players.

However, Rodgers is 37, and it's Gutekunst's job to maintain the franchise, not be sentimental.

If (and these are certainly not givens by any means), Love is good and there is a big offer on the table for Rodgers, I think the risk of passing would outweigh the risk of trading.

I'll go a step further and admit something...when the Watson issue in Houston broke, I instantly was like "Gute trade Rodgers for him" BUT with Love stashed I wouldn't. If we'd not drafted Love, and Houston would do it, that hand off to the future would have been insane.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Desperation. SF just gave away #12 and 2 future 1st rounders to move up to #3. Carolina is thought to be considering a major trade to move up from #8. The Bears, sitting at #20, KNOW that they don't have a shot at a top-5 QB with Denver, NE & Washington in front of them.

I don't believe any team that passed on Love last year would be desperate to trade up for him this year.

How do you know that? Got a better crystal ball than the rest of us?

You were the one that mentioned he would do well with excellent players around him. How do you know that will be the case???

But the position is so important, it is wise to take the shot when you can if you have a need.

The point being that the Packers didn't have a need to address quarterback in the first round last year.

I'll go a step further and admit something...when the Watson issue in Houston broke, I instantly was like "Gute trade Rodgers for him" BUT with Love stashed I wouldn't. If we'd not drafted Love, and Houston would do it, that hand off to the future would have been insane.

Have you seen the stories that have arisen about Watson since??? The Packers acquiring him would have developed into a PR nightmare in a heartbeat.

 

[tynimiller]

Have you seen the stories that have arisen about Watson since??? The Packers acquiring him would have developed into a PR nightmare in a heartbeat.

100% have paused that perspective. It was all reflective back as I said to when the news broke initially.

 

[PikeBadger]

I don't believe any team that passed on Love last year would be desperate to trade up for him this year.



You were the one that mentioned he would do well with excellent players around him. How do you know that will be the case???



The point being that the Packers didn't have a need to address quarterback in the first round last year.



Have you seen the stories that have arisen about Watson since??? The Packers acquiring him would have developed into a PR nightmare in a heartbeat.

I don’t KNOW.
I certainly hope.
I DO BELIEVE.

i don’t expect it to happen quickly. I agree that his first year as a starter will likely be similar to Rodger’s first year starting. Our level of success that year will be more predicated on our running game and the quality of our defense and special teams.

 

[Dantés]

The SF trade up is interesting.

I feel pretty confident that, despite the Mac Jones chatter, they're moving up for Trey Lance.

What's interesting to me about that is that I think Trey Lance is the QB in this class most comparable, in terms of athletic profile and skill set, to Jordan Love.

Lance:

6'3.4" 224 lbs
Powerful arm
Plus mobility without being a burner
Smaller program background

Love:

6'3.6" 224 lbs
Powerful arm
Plus mobility without being a burner
Smaller program background

How the two compare on the tape, I could no say past superficial remarks. It has struck me that most of the time I listen to the truly smart, informed draft analysts break down QB's, they are noting aspects of their game that I'm not really knowledgeable about.

But given that Shanahan is probably the closest kin to LaFleur in the NFL in terms of schematic approach, the thought that they are targeting an extremely similar QB prospect strikes me.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don’t KNOW.
I certainly hope.
I DO BELIEVE.

i don’t expect it to happen quickly. I agree that his first year as a starter will likely be similar to Rodger’s first year starting. Our level of success that year will be more predicated on our running game and the quality of our defense and special teams.

Short of Love literally blowing the doors off of opponents in Preseason or Rodgers getting hurt and Love lighting it up in the regular season, I really doubt the Packers will know exactly what they have in Love at the end of 2021. I think back about other Packer backups; Boyle, Hundley, Kizer, Callahan, Hill, Nall, Martin, Flynn etc. Maybe except for Kizer and Flynn, no matter how any of them played in the preseason, there still seemed to be the question of "do we have someone capable of starting and playing well in the NFL?" Even in the end, both Kizer and Flynn ended up fizzling in the NFL.

 

[PikeBadger]

I agree with much of your post Pokerbrat but Love’s physical abilities far exceeds Flynn’s and I never saw Kizer approach the things that Love can do. I think the cerebral portion of excelling at QB will be by far his greatest challenge. There are few QB’s in the NFL that can evenly match his physical tools IMO.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I agree with much of your post Pokerbrat but Love’s physical abilities far exceeds Flynn’s and I never saw Kizer approach the things that Love can do.

For sure. We just haven't seen it yet. I hated the pick at first, but the more I read, the more I liked it. Now we all just have to see how it translates onto the field, in a game. I doubt reporters even were able to get a good look at Love, since most of the practices were closed due to Covid. As much as I want to jump to conclusions about a lot of things "Packer related", I recognize I don't have 90% of the details that Gute and the coaches have.