Defending Janis

[OldSchool101]

You wouldn't be saying that if it was Abbrederis. You know it too.



Spoken like a true Abbrederis fanboy. I'll say it again. If Abbrederis had gone to Indiana or North Carolina or someplace else, he wouldn't be nearly so hyped around here.

Just before the 2014 draft I thought we would grab a KR in free agency (aka Devin Hester) or even possibly go a surprise 1st or 2nd day pick at KR.
When following the draft on a live comment board, I called a KR/WR to be picked minutes before we acquired Abby. We had been in desperate need of a solution. The Pack had been in "Will Blackmon" experiment mode (with or without Will) and it was a glaring weakness we needed to plug.
I think the type of injury Abby sustained early in his rookie season and the moderate success using Janis as his stunt double at KR made us reconsider his role at KR and the two players reversed roles. I honestly don't think anyone guessed Jeff would also lead the team in ST coverage.
As You said perfectly Larry, it's not unusual to faulter a bit until you get in Rythmn. I think it's completely unfair of Whimm to pick out a small segment of statistical information on a player that's essentially a "Rook" by most standards (even IF he has 1 year experience on a 2nd string Offense) as much so as us supporters using his 1 big game as evidence of his performance in totality. I believe somewhere inhe tweet those 2 arguments lies the truth.
In reality, it is very possible we continue to use Jeff where he has the strongest proven production.. ST
From what I've seen. Monty and Davante trump Jeff in the short term in the top 4 WR until proven otherwise and although I'm not happy with Davantes performance as of lately? I think Adams has the overall talent and experience to get another look as our #3 which allows Monty to be a backfield/slot utility Wideout.
I won't be surprised at all if they give Jeff a 3rd year in the system before slowly transitioning his role in 2017-2018. He's young and has plenty of time to be a seasoned WR, he's got an immediate value at ST and the reasonable thing to do is not give up on 2nd round talent in Davante this early.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I think it's completely unfair of Whimm to pick out a small segment of statistical information on a player that's essentially a "Rook" by most standards (even IF he has 1 year experience on a 2nd string Offense) as much so as us supporters using his 1 big game as evidence of his performance in totality. I believe somewhere inhe tweet those 2 arguments lies the truth.

I don't consider two years of having only two receptions while playing with Rodgers a small segment of statistical information. I agree the truth lies somewhere in between of the two sides arguing here as I expect Janis to be more involved in the Packers offense but don't see him repeating his performance at Arizona on a regular basis.

 

[bigbubbatd]

I don't consider two years of having only two receptions while playing with Rodgers a small segment of statistical information. I agree the truth lies somewhere in between of the two sides arguing here as I expect Janis to be more involved in the Packers offense but don't see him repeating his performance at Arizona on a regular basis.

Yeah I don't think anyone is saying Janis will have only 2 catches all year. That would be ridiculous. Just as ridiculous as someone saying he will reproduce Arizona. But if we are talking small sample size I think 36 games is bigger than 1 game and in some purposes really 1 drive.

The better question is can Janis consistently reproduce the Arizona game minus the final crazy drive. What was that like 5 catches for 50 yards? That would be 80 catches for 800 yards. That would be incredibly high.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yeah I don't think anyone is saying Janis will have only 2 catches all year. That would be ridiculous. Just as ridiculous as someone saying he will reproduce Arizona. But if we are talking small sample size I think 36 games is bigger than 1 game and in some purposes really 1 drive.

The better question is can Janis consistently reproduce the Arizona game minus the final crazy drive. What was that like 5 catches for 50 yards? That would be 80 catches for 800 yards. That would be incredibly high.

I agree that Janis ending up with 80 receptions in 2016 is completely unrealistic. A lot of Packers fans forget that the team had only three healthy receivers in Jones, Abbrederis and Janis for most of that game. Nelson and Cobb will most likely get the majority of targets this season though making it extremely tough for other WRs to duplicate the numbers from the Cardinals game.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Can we PLEASE stop bringing up the Cardinals game as if it's some type of reliable evidence on Janis? Jordy Nelson came on the radio and said, flat out, that the hail Mary is LUCK. I guess we could consider the likelihood that Janis is going to be the luckiest player ever based on that game but I'm not sure that's the case. 101 of Janis' 145 yards came on the final two plays of regulation. As already mentioned, 41 yards of that was luck on the final play in regulation. As for the 61 yard play on 4th-and-20, that was basically ALL Rodgers buying time from his own endzone and allowing the Cardinals to blow the coverage on Janis. Yes, Janis improved over the course of the season but there was nothing in that Cardinals game that demonstrated some marked improvement in his route running or understanding of the game.

I'm not saying he's bad or that the Cardinals game wasn't exciting but the two plays which made up the vast majority of his production were mainly the product of luck and Rodgers' superlative abilities as a quarterback. He came into the league needing a ton of work, he was very raw, and he's been improving a little each year. I hope he continues to improve but I would be shocked if he's one of the top-3 receivers when the season starts (barring injuries of course).

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Yes, Janis improved over the course of the season but there was nothing in that Cardinals game that demonstrated some marked improvement in his route running or understanding of the game.

For the first time during his tenure with the Packers Janis caught some balls away from his body and showed better route running during the playoff game vs. the Cardinals. There shouldn't be any denying he still has a lot of improvements to make before getting significant playing time though.

 

[GBkrzygrl]

I only thing I wonder is that some people learn by doing. I can study how to do something all day long but I have to be hands on to actually learn it. If Janis makes mistakes in running routes why not let him learn from what he did wrong and keep throwing to him? I can remember in the past seeing that in games. Now granted, I'm not in practice so I don't know how they did then but I would think that even in practice you would want to keep throwing to him to help him learn.

 

[Half Empty]

Never played the game, but my knee-jerk reaction is that there's only one of AR's right arms. I'd think you keep him running routes and critique those, but even if Hundley or the others throw, it's not the same.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

Can we PLEASE stop bringing up the Cardinals game as if it's some type of reliable evidence on Janis? Jordy Nelson came on the radio and said, flat out, that the hail Mary is LUCK. I guess we could consider the likelihood that Janis is going to be the luckiest player ever based on that game but I'm not sure that's the case. 101 of Janis' 145 yards came on the final two plays of regulation. As already mentioned, 41 yards of that was luck on the final play in regulation. As for the 61 yard play on 4th-and-20, that was basically ALL Rodgers buying time from his own endzone and allowing the Cardinals to blow the coverage on Janis. Yes, Janis improved over the course of the season but there was nothing in that Cardinals game that demonstrated some marked improvement in his route running or understanding of the game.

I'm not saying he's bad or that the Cardinals game wasn't exciting but the two plays which made up the vast majority of his production were mainly the product of luck and Rodgers' superlative abilities as a quarterback. He came into the league needing a ton of work, he was very raw, and he's been improving a little each year. I hope he continues to improve but I would be shocked if he's one of the top-3 receivers when the season starts (barring injuries of course).

Any play can be chalked up to luck if that's the case. What I saw was an incredible effort and throw by Rodgers, and an outstanding effort and catch by Janis. Would it be executed each time they run it? No, but that's because it's a very low percentage throw, not because it was luck.

Now, the deflection of the ball right into the receivers hands in the endzone by Arizona was pure luck. GB was lucky in the sense that such a difficult play worked, but that's it.

 

[bigbubbatd]

I only thing I wonder is that some people learn by doing. I can study how to do something all day long but I have to be hands on to actually learn it. If Janis makes mistakes in running routes why not let him learn from what he did wrong and keep throwing to him? I can remember in the past seeing that in games. Now granted, I'm not in practice so I don't know how they did then but I would think that even in practice you would want to keep throwing to him to help him learn.

Because those mistakes lead to turnovers or not converted third downs. All the quotes from coaches last year make it sound like it wasnt something that just happened during the game but in practice too. Thus rookies like Ty Montgomery were lining up out of position (on the outside) after Adams went down instead of Janis getting a lot of playing time.

I dont want to chalk Janis' catches up to luck. But I do think it is telling that half of his catches and almost all his yards last year came on 3 broken plays. I will go on record for putting Janis in on 3rd and 4th and really long. He just hasnt shown much any other time. I know to some I am a hater but I really want him to succeed because he could help the offense a lot but I also want Adams to succeed, I want Abbrederis to succeed, I want Davis to succeed. I dont have any horses in this race but going off what I have seen the flow of a normal game Janis has a ton of work to do

 

[Sunshinepacker]

For the first time during his tenure with the Packers Janis caught some balls away from his body and showed better route running during the playoff game vs. the Cardinals. There shouldn't be any denying he still has a lot of improvements to make before getting significant playing time though.

Yes, he was better. Perhaps I didn't expand on what I meant enough but when I said "marked improvement" I meant to say that his massive numbers in that game were not indicative of a similar jump in his receiving skills. He didn't suddenly start doing a lot of things a whole lot better in that one game. Which is fine and not a criticism of the guy. Like I said, I hope he continues to improve; coming from such a small school it's to be expected that his transition to the NFL will take time.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

I don't consider two years of having only two receptions while playing with Rodgers a small segment of statistical information. I agree the truth lies somewhere in between of the two sides arguing here as I expect Janis to be more involved in the Packers offense but don't see him repeating his performance at Arizona on a regular basis.

And neither do I. I don't see any NFL receiver getting 150+ yards and 2 TDs on a regular basis, but his performance at AZ did put to rest the myth that he had no business in the NFL, which was something that many were still perpetuating at that time. I haven't said anywhere that he doesn't have more work to do. But the evidence indicates that he's moving in the right direction and he's getting there.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

Can we PLEASE stop bringing up the Cardinals game as if it's some type of reliable evidence on Janis? Jordy Nelson came on the radio and said, flat out, that the hail Mary is LUCK.

Sure there's luck involved in any hail mary. But the play wasn't even a hail mary anyway. In a hail mary, you group your receivers together and throw the ball up for grabs, hoping that the ball will fall into the hands of one of your receivers. The Richard Rodgers play was a hail mary. Note the grouping and no obvious intended receiver:

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The Janis play was a case of Jeff being wide open and Rodgers deliberately throwing the ball to him into deep double coverage. It was a tough play to make and Jeff made it. The ball wasn't just thrown up for grabs. Rodgers saw him open and he was clearly the intended target. Not every long throw at the end of the game is a hail mary. Note the difference:

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If that same play happens with 5 minutes left in the third quarter, nobody is calling that a hail mary. To say that that catch was nothing more than dumb luck is patently dishonest and Jordy never said it was either. Credit where credit is due.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

I agree that Janis ending up with 80 receptions in 2016 is completely unrealistic.

Of course it's unrealistic. Janis will be subbing for Nelson and Adams (assuming he gets his head back on straight) most of the time. To be realistic, I'll go on record now saying that unless something unforeseen happens in camp, I expect something like 25-35 catches for around 500 yards and 3-6 TDs for Janis next year. This is what I expect will happen. However, if (big "if") he actually manages to beat Adams for the wide position opposite Nelson, then I would be looking for 40-60 catches for around 700 yards and 7-8 TDs. This would be best case scenario for him this year and not what I am currently expecting.

 

[Speedy14]

I'm a huge fan of Janis making it!

However, you have to rewind back to the knee jerk reaction from GB Special Teams melt down in the NFC Championship Game the year prior... from MM basically saying, 'We need to have focus on Special Teams...' The results were, MM stepping down from play calling to take on a more holistic approach of trying to fix all the holes on the team (ST, Def., and some Off.).

Remember, they drafted for defense and ST that year; Monty who was a special teams stud out of college, and they put Janis as speed demon on KO returns and KO/punt coverages. Did Janis really have time (or commitment) as WR with him being the #1 Special Teamer? And, was it in MM's focus to move Janis up to #3, or #4 WR, when they were so desperately needing to fix ST? I think the answer is no.

In the Card game, you saw in the end of how gassed he was? The guy was flat out of breath! If you watch the re-air of it, MM talks about what they asked of him was way beyond any player had ever done, almost King James epic like. In that game he was a 4-down player, on every play, and there was no resting him. I take my hat off in respect. Not did he have to run down the field on the plays, but he had to run back to the line of scrimmage (all go routes in the end).

So, the question of the day, is he an one game wonder, or is the sky the limit? I don't know, and I don't know what MM's priorities will be on the team this coming year (fluid situation)? Is there enough swagger on ST to get'er done without him, so he focus on being a top tier WR? Or, is he doomed to put out more fires on ST, and will only be able to support, sparingly as WR?

IMO, I think we have to wait for training camp to play out in injuries, and who and where the studs are from preseason situation on ST, and does Janis make the leap if given the opportunity at #3, or #4 WR?

Remember, it is not always what is best for Janis as a WR, but what is best for the whole team where they need him...I'm hoping he gets the chance and more importantly he RUNS (4.3) through the door!

 

[bigbubbatd]

Of course it's unrealistic. Janis will be subbing for Nelson and Adams (assuming he gets his head back on straight) most of the time. To be realistic, I'll go on record now saying that unless something unforeseen happens in camp, I expect something like 25-35 catches for around 500 yards and 3-6 TDs for Janis next year. This is what I expect will happen. However, if (big "if") he actually manages to beat Adams for the wide position opposite Nelson, then I would be looking for 40-60 catches for around 700 yards and 7-8 TDs. This would be best case scenario for him this year and not what I am currently expecting.

Of course it's unrealistic. Janis will be subbing for Nelson and Adams (assuming he gets his head back on straight) most of the time. To be realistic, I'll go on record now saying that unless something unforeseen happens in camp, I expect something like 25-35 catches for around 500 yards and 3-6 TDs for Janis next year. This is what I expect will happen. However, if (big "if") he actually manages to beat Adams for the wide position opposite Nelson, then I would be looking for 40-60 catches for around 700 yards and 7-8 TDs. This would be best case scenario for him this year and not what I am currently expecting.

30 catches for 400 yards and 4 tds would very a fair expectation to me. Probably higher than I would expect but makes sense.

I think the "anti-Janis" crowd has said almost the exact same thing you said. Highly unlikely he beats out Adams so he be the 5th wr on the team at best behind Nelson cobb adams Montgomery and cook at te

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I only thing I wonder is that some people learn by doing. I can study how to do something all day long but I have to be hands on to actually learn it. If Janis makes mistakes in running routes why not let him learn from what he did wrong and keep throwing to him? I can remember in the past seeing that in games. Now granted, I'm not in practice so I don't know how they did then but I would think that even in practice you would want to keep throwing to him to help him learn.

Janis has to prove he's capable of running the correct route on most plays in practice before his playing time significantly increases. Otherwise his lack of knowledge of the Packers playbook will result in an increased amount of turnovers, something Rodgers deeply despises.

Sure there's luck involved in any hail mary. But the play wasn't even a hail mary anyway. In a hail mary, you group your receivers together and throw the ball up for grabs, hoping that the ball will fall into the hands of one of your receivers. The Richard Rodgers play was a hail mary.

The Janis play was a case of Jeff being wide open and Rodgers deliberately throwing the ball to him into deep double coverage. It was a tough play to make and Jeff made it. The ball wasn't just thrown up for grabs. Rodgers saw him open and he was clearly the intended target. Not every long throw at the end of the game is a hail mary.

If that same play happens with 5 minutes left in the third quarter, nobody is calling that a hail mary. To say that that catch was nothing more than dumb luck is patently dishonest and Jordy never said it was either. Credit where credit is due.

Of course the play at the end of the Cardinals game was a Hail Mary. Rodgers threw a pass up for grabs towards the end zone he wouldn't have attempted at any other point during a game because the Packers needed to score a touchdown with time running out. That is the definition of a Hail Mary.

BTW I wonder how it's possible for Janis to be wide open while being covered by two defensive backs???

Of course it's unrealistic. Janis will be subbing for Nelson and Adams (assuming he gets his head back on straight) most of the time. To be realistic, I'll go on record now saying that unless something unforeseen happens in camp, I expect something like 25-35 catches for around 500 yards and 3-6 TDs for Janis next year. This is what I expect will happen.

I predicted weeks ago that Janis will catch 25 balls for 375 yards and four touchdowns. It seems like we have pretty similar expectations for him entering this season. When talking about his potential a lot of posters act like they want him to put up numbers like Nelson and Cobb in 2014.

Did Janis really have time (or commitment) as WR with him being the #1 Special Teamer? And, was it in MM's focus to move Janis up to #3, or #4 WR, when they were so desperately needing to fix ST? I think the answer is no.

In the Card game, you saw in the end of how gassed he was? The guy was flat out of breath! If you watch the re-air of it, MM talks about what they asked of him was way beyond any player had ever done, almost King James epic like. In that game he was a 4-down player, on every play, and there was no resting him. I take my hat off in respect. Not did he have to run down the field on the plays, but he had to run back to the line of scrimmage (all go routes in the end).

Janis being a key member of several special team units didn't prevent him from developing as a wide receiver as he for sure spent enough time at the position on the practice field as well as in positional meetings.

He played a total of 40 out of 73 snaps on offense during the Cardinals game as well as another 11 out of 25 on special teams. That numbers are far off from playing all four downs.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Sure there's luck involved in any hail mary. But the play wasn't even a hail mary anyway. In a hail mary, you group your receivers together and throw the ball up for grabs, hoping that the ball will fall into the hands of one of your receivers. The Richard Rodgers play was a hail mary. Note the grouping and no obvious intended receiver:

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The Janis play was a case of Jeff being wide open and Rodgers deliberately throwing the ball to him into deep double coverage. It was a tough play to make and Jeff made it. The ball wasn't just thrown up for grabs. Rodgers saw him open and he was clearly the intended target. Not every long throw at the end of the game is a hail mary. Note the difference:

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

If that same play happens with 5 minutes left in the third quarter, nobody is calling that a hail mary. To say that that catch was nothing more than dumb luck is patently dishonest and Jordy never said it was either. Credit where credit is due.

That was a hail mary. Rodgers heaved the ball really high and into the endzone from really far away with no care as to who caught it (obviously hoping that a Packers player caught it). That's a hail mary.

 

[Poppa San]

BTW I wonder how it's possible for Janis to be wide open while being covered by two defensive backs???

The same way RR was open for the Hail Mary in Detroit. Arrive in the endzone late. The defenders were playing to knock the ball down. In both plays, the receiver did not arrive in the endzone until the ball was almost there. They actually were almost identical offensive alignments. VS Det, Abby was in the spot Janis was in vs Ariz. Rodgers threw to the pack of receivers. In Ariz, Rodgers spun out the other way and threw to the single receiver. Note Abby and Jones together at the top of the screen in the provided graphic. The RB and TE stayed in to block vs Arizona. Vs Detroit the TE was able to release and go out in the pattern.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

Of course the play at the end of the Cardinals game was a Hail Mary. Rodgers threw a pass up for grabs towards the end zone he wouldn't have attempted at any other point during a game because the Packers needed to score a touchdown with time running out. That is the definition of a Hail Mary.

No, once again the hail mary play is where your receivers are bunched together and the ball thrown up for grabs. That is how the play is designed. It was certainly a desperation play, but not a hail mary.

 

[Poppa San]

No, once again the hail mary play is where your receivers are bunched together and the ball thrown up for grabs. That is how the play is designed. It was certainly a desperation play, but not a hail mary.

You are about the only person that makes that distinction. Most of the media, the fans, and most likely the players involved ALL refer to the plays at the end of the Lions and Cardinal games as Hail Mary plays.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The same way RR was open for the Hail Mary in Detroit. Arrive in the endzone late. The defenders were playing to knock the ball down. In both plays, the receiver did not arrive in the endzone until the ball was almost there.

Janis wasn't wide open at the catch point during the Hail Mary vs. the Cardinals though. He had to fight Patrick Peterson and Rashad Johnson for the ball. It doesn't matter he was open before entering the end zone as the defensive backs are obviously only defending that area of the field.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

No, once again the hail mary play is where your receivers are bunched together and the ball thrown up for grabs. That is how the play is designed. It was certainly a desperation play, but not a hail mary.

Once again, a Hail Mary is defined as a desperate long pass at the end of a game with a team in need of points to either tie or win a game. The alignment of the receivers doesn't matter at all.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Once again, a Hail Mary is defined as a desperate long pass at the end of a game with a team in need of points to either tie or win a game. The alignment of the receivers doesn't matter at all.

That's exactly how I see a Hail Mary to be honest.

 

[Mondio]

from the moment it left AR's hand it was a Hail Mary. Chucking a ball up, to a spot, in the endzone in desperation, as time is running out on a last ditch effort to try and miraculously stay in the game, is the very definition of the Hail Mary.