Crosby is back!

[tynimiller]

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Well technically Crosby already was on the team and is...not sure why this thread even exists....technically LMAO

 

[rmontro]

as for the window...it's nailed shut now. lol

Nah, it's not nailed shut. Surround Rodgers with the kind of talent the 2015-16 Broncos had, and he's more than capable of bringing home a Lombardi.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Among his peers he's hardly overpaid at all and for every cheap rookie kicker you find me that was successful, I can find a couple that didn't make it past 3 real NFL games before never kicking again, or worse. ask Da Bears, Vikings and Steelers how kickers matter.

If I'm going to bet money, it's on a guy like Crosby.

While it's true that not every kicker on a rookie deal works out teams can move on without any negative repercussions on the cap and search for the right one. Extending Crosby resulted that they once again can't do that if he hits a rough stretch.

My point being that there's no reason to bet money on a kicker at all.

Same thing happened with Davante Adams and people *****ed. Now they all rightly claim it's a bargain.

Geez, the situations aren't comparable at all as Adams is an elite player at a far more important position while Crosby is an average special teamer.

Here's the proper way to do this.

Last time Crosby got a contract, it was 2.57% of the salary cap. This time, it's for 2.16% of the cap. It's a raise for Crosby, but less of the salary cap devoted to a kicker.

That's just evidence that Crosby was vastly overpaid in the first place over the past few years.

If we're entering into our final window for Super Bowl chances with Rodgers, I don't want a question mark back there at kicker. I'll take the solid vet. It's not like we're breaking the bank for him.

The problem being that Crosby is a question mark, but for whatever reason Packers fan don't seem to realize that.

it's the clutchness not the distance.

Kickers have combined to make 96.2% of field goals from inside 33 yards with two minutes or less left in the fourth quarter as well as in overtime while either trailing by three or less points or tied. Could we please stop acting as if Crosby is any clutch because of hitting two of those in 2019???

It doesn’t seem like hardly anyone agrees with you on that. That being the case... perhaps you should back up and evaluate your own position?

Just because most other posters disagree with me on Crosby doesn't mean that I'm wrong about it.

 

[swhitset]

While it's true that not every kicker on a rookie deal works out teams can move on without any negative repercussions on the cap and search for the right one. Extending Crosby resulted that they once again can't do that if he hits a rough stretch.

My point being that there's no reason to bet money on a kicker at all.



Geez, the situations aren't comparable at all as Adams is an elite player at a far more important position while Crosby is an average special teamer.



That's just evidence that Crosby was vastly overpaid in the first place over the past few years.



The problem being that Crosby is a question mark, but for whatever reason Packers fan don't seem to realize that.



Kickers have combined to make 96.2% of field goals from inside 33 yards with two minutes or less left in the fourth quarter as well as in overtime while either trailing by three or less points or tied. Could we please stop acting as if Crosby is any clutch because of hitting two of those in 2019???



Just because most other posters disagree with me on Crosby doesn't mean that I'm wrong about it.

I suppose we all have our own particular windmill to tilt lol.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A few words on the purported difficulty of kicking in Green Bay and the impact on Crosby's career numbers.

A study was done some years back attempting to assess the impact of environmental factors on place kicking. The #1 factor identified was altitude. This should come as no surprise. Kicking in thin air at 5,000 feet vs. sea level is around a 10% advantage, give or take. The Crosby experience bears that out. When drafted he was purported to have a huge leg which did not materialize, good not great. Of course he played college ball in Boulder at over 5,000 ft. and some other western stadiums at some altitude relative to Green Bay at about 600 ft. above sea level.

The second most important factor identified was cross wind. The third was temperature, not a particularly meaningful factor to begin while not showing up in the data until temps got below 40 degrees.

If particularly harsh environmental factors at Lambeau were the cause of Crosby's lackluster career FG stats, we would see better career performance on the road than at home. And there is a large sample size covering 13 regular seasons. That is not the case. He's been slightly better at home.

Home: 98.5% on 335 EP attempts
Road: 97.4% on 265 EP attempts

Home: 81.3% on 203 FG attemps
Road: 80.8% on 203 FG attemps

You can find the home/away splits here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CrosMa20/splits/

I was supportive of Crosby's last contract, less so now for a variety of reasons that go into the diminished value of place kickers in general:

• Given the change in kickoff rules, you're better off on average kicking short of the goal line than driving it into the end zone, diminshing the value of the big leg. There were only 8 qualifying KO returners last year who averaged more than 24 yards per return. Subtract whatever yards they gained getting out of the end zone on some kicks. 6 of the 8 had a single TD return; if you deduct that the averages drop. Kick short, defend the long return, and you come out ahead.

• Whatever facility a kicker might have had in on-side kicking is all but dead.

• Most importantly, teams have started to figure out that the risk/reward on 4th. and 2 from the opponents 35, for example, favors going for it over attempting the field goal in many scoreboard and time-on-the-clock situations. We're seeing more 4th. and 2's from the 30 and 4th. and 5's from the 35. Not all teams tend to be so aggressive but it is a growing trend. Many of the kicking opportunities where kickers distinguish themselves--that 45 to 55 yard range--are going by the boards.

• Unless the approach is a high emphasis on defense and running the ball, which seems to be finding a bit more favor these days but not the conventional approach, kicking FGs is not going to win games. Regardless, the Packers do not fit in that category.

 

[rmontro]

The problem being that Crosby is a question mark, but for whatever reason Packers fan don't seem to realize that.

Not to me he isn't. He may not be the best kicker in the league, but I have confidence in him. He hasn't done anything like the "double doink" that cost the Bears a playoff victory. His playoff record is 65/65 on extra points and 26/29 on field goals. I'll take that.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

If particularly harsh environmental factors at Lambeau were the cause of Crosby's lackluster career FG stats, we would see better career performance on the road than at home. And there is a large sample size covering 13 regular seasons. That is not the case. He's been slightly better at home.

Home: 98.5% on 335 EP attempts
Road: 97.4% on 265 EP attempts

Home: 81.3% on 203 FG attemps
Road: 80.8% on 203 FG attemps

You can find the home/away splits here:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CrosMa20/splits/

In addition opposing kickers have combined to hit a higher percentage of field goals at Lambeau Field (82.3% on 170 attempts) since 2007 than Crosby.

Not to me he isn't. He may not be the best kicker in the league, but I have confidence in him. He hasn't done anything like the "double doink" that cost the Bears a playoff victory. His playoff record is 65/65 on extra points and 26/29 on field goals. I'll take that.

Once again, those numbers are mostly that good because the Packers haven't put Crosby in a lot of difficult situations in the playoffs (average of 36 yards per attempt). While you might feel comfortable about him being the Packers kicker for whatever reason the numbers definitely don't support that point of view.

 

[rmontro]

Once again, those numbers are mostly that good because the Packers haven't put Crosby in a lot of difficult situations in the playoffs (average of 36 yards per attempt). While you might feel comfortable about him being the Packers kicker for whatever reason the numbers definitely don't support that point of view.

He made those two 50+ yarders in the fourth quarter against Dallas im the playoffs a few years back.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

He made those two 50+ yarders in the fourth quarter against Dallas im the playoffs a few years back.

There's absolutely no doubt that Crosby had an amazing performance against the Cowboys in the 2016 playoffs. But that was the best one of his career and should be considered as an variation from his standard performance.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There's absolutely no doubt that Crosby had an amazing performance against the Cowboys in the 2016 playoffs. But that was the best one of his career and should be considered as an variation from his standard performance.

Hey Captain. Since you seem to be the most vocal poster against Crosby every season, I want to propose a challenge to you, we will call it "The Captain's Challenge". Immediately after the draft, choose the name of one UDFA Kicker that you would sign as your kicker for 2020. At the end of the season, we will look at how YOUR GUY does and how Mason does. You might be able to shut us all up or.....

Up for the challenge?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Hey Captain. Since you seem to be the most vocal poster against Crosby every season, I want to propose a challenge to you, we will call it "The Captain's Challenge". Immediately after the draft, choose the name of one UDFA Kicker that you would sign as your kicker for 2020. At the end of the season, we will look at how YOUR GUY does and how Mason does. You might be able to shut us all up or.....

Up for the challenge?

Well, while I don't have the chance to work out any of the undrafted kickers I'm up for the challenge.

I suggest the loser has to use a signature chosen by the winner for some time.

 

[Mondio]

I'd say the loser has to host the winner for a Packer game

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'd say the loser has to host the winner for a Packer game

Hmmm, travel expenses inlcuded???

 

[Mondio]

Hmmm, travel expenses inlcuded???

That could hurt a bit After paying for those it may just be a TV set up in the garage we watch the game on. And really cheap beer from the neighbor's house.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That could hurt a bit After paying for those it may just be a TV set up in the garage we watch the game on. And really cheap beer from the neighbor's house.

I would be OK with bringing the beer if travel expenses are paid for so we don't have to drink the cheap one from the neighbor's house

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well, while I don't have the chance to work out any of the undrafted kickers I'm up for the challenge.

Nor do I have a chance to work Mason out, but I will trust that the Packers once again made the right decision on resigning him.

I suggest the loser has to use a signature chosen by the winner for some time.

Fair enough. I'm leaning towards your signature being "I have always and will always be Mason Crosby's #1 Fan, he's my hero."

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Nor do I have a chance to work Mason out, but I will trust that the Packers once again made the right decision on resigning him.

Well, the difference being that you have seen Crosby kick in the league for 13 years. Interestingly you're not convinced the Packers front office is making the right decisions at a lot of other positions though.

Fair enough. I'm leaning towards your signature being "I have always and will always be Mason Crosby's #1 Fan, he's my hero."

You shouldn't spend any time about thinking what my signature will look like as it's not gonna happen that way

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Well, the difference being that you have seen Crosby kick in the league for 13 years.

Exactly and you, just like the Packers, will have game film and scouting reports to read on your UDFA. Which is actually part of my point. The Book on Crosby is pretty well written, I know what I am getting. I don't think you will have that luxury with an UDFA kicker that has only kicked a few years in a college program.

Interestingly you're not convinced the Packers front office is making the right decisions at a lot of other positions though.

I try to look at each decision made by the Packers on an individual basis. I try not to toot my own horn when I am right, but am willing to call myself out when I am wrong. I don't think I have been wrong about Crosby.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nearly all of you are fine with Crosby being paid like an elite kicker when he's an average one at best. Surprisingly no other player on the roster gets as much leeway.

15 NFL Kickers make within 550K of Mason Crosby higher or lower. When you factor in that Crosby’s contract is one of the newest on the books.. I’d argue that’s not the case at all.. that his salary is smack dab in the contemporary veteran average of kicker contracts. Of the 6 veteran Kickers becoming Free Agents in the same season, Zero are more than 500K higher or lower.
12 more Kickers will have contracts expiring next season and approximately 50% of those will fall between the “mean” of average veterans. I don’t see the “elite” payday correlation you’re using for that argument.

In my opinion the money paid to Crosby would definitely be smarter spent on a mid-tier player on either offense or defense. Unfortunately the Packers don't agree with me on it.

But just to entertain the hypothetical argument of cutting Crosby. It’s a fact that we’d have to pay a rookie Kicker roughly 500K-1Million $ (call it 750K) even if you drafted one or got a street Signing.

The question now remains...
which player and what position would you choose in a perfect world that can you get more production (your not cutting him to entertain an equal production correct?) for roughly 3.5Million$ than the highest scoring position in the history of the sport??

Show me what our 3.5million gets us that can all but guarantee us a better total points output, all the while erasing any risk of putting an unproven and unknown rookie Kicker in the mix.

I actually contemplated the same thought last season, but I’m so glad we didn’t make that move cutting Crosby last year. There’s too many other ways to address our Cap dollars and save $ without cutting starting level players who are currently performing well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

But just to entertain the hypothetical argument of cutting Crosby. It’s a fact that we’d have to pay a rookie Kicker roughly 500K-1Million $ (call it 750K) even if you drafted one or got a street Signing.

Sorry....your numbers are way off! Sam Ficken played for $495K last year!

 

[OldSchool101]

Sorry....your numbers are way off! Sam Ficken played for $495K last year!

You’re Ficken Nutzo He’s deadly between 40-49 yards... (to his own team )

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Exactly and you, just like the Packers, will have game film and scouting reports to read on your UDFA. Which is actually part of my point. The Book on Crosby is pretty well written, I know what I am getting. I don't think you will have that luxury with an UDFA kicker that has only kicked a few years in a college program.

As I've mentioned before I'm up to the challenge but you're well aware that I don't have access anywhere close to make a fair evaluation of an undrafted kicker than an NFL team has.

You're right that we know what we get with Crosby, therefore I have been advocating for not paying him that much money for years. Again you don't use that line of thinking when it comes to other positions.

I don't think I have been wrong about Crosby.

While I agree with you a lot this time you're wrong

15 NFL Kickers make within 550K of Mason Crosby higher or lower. When you factor in that Crosby’s contract is one of the newest on the books.. I’d argue that’s not the case at all..

And you know what, ALL of those 15 kickers have a better career field goal percentage than Crosby.

The question now remains...
which player and what position would you choose in a perfect world that can you get more production (your not cutting him to entertain an equal production correct?) for roughly 3.5Million$ than the highest scoring position in the history of the sport??

Show me what our 3.5million gets us that can all but guarantee us a better total points output, all the while erasing any risk of putting an unproven and unknown rookie Kicker in the mix.

40 players on the Packers roster counted less than $3.5 million towards the cap last season, meaning there are several starters amongst them playing a majority of the snaps on either offense and defense.

I'm quite sure Gutekunst could have found a way to use that money on a player having a bigger impact than an average kicker.

 

[OldSchool101]

And you know what, ALL of those 15 kickers have a better career field goal percentage than Crosby.

I'm quite sure Gutekunst could have found a way to use that money on a player having a bigger impact than an average kicker.

You said “elite” pay. I’ll resubmit that argument is not valid information (unless you scratch the surface and split hairs) He’s not paid elite $ when considering his contract is brand new and the veteran K contracts generally don’t vary much.
This is a league (like many employers) of....
“what have you done lately?”
As of the late, only 4 Kickers had a better FG % than Mason Crosby last season...

Josh Lambo 97% (missed an extra point)
Justin Tucker 97% (missed 2 extra points)
Chris Boswell 94 %(+PERFECT XP)
Dan Bailey 93% (plus missed 4 extra points)

Mason Crosby 92% (+PERFECT XP)

I’d say that’s a pretty good crowd and I would argue that he’s essentially tied with Dan Bailey for 4th place when factoring in 4 points lost by Bailey.
He should be getting a top 5-10 contract.. exactly where he’s at when factoring in his starts this coming season. You either hire him or you don’t.. you don’t offer him 723,000 less based on career average, that’s a good way to have a K leave to another team willing to pay him 4mil

This notion of using a career average as an argument for a K just doesn’t hold (no pun). If it did.. We’d immediately call Ryan Longwell to come back and play for us I’d argue that the last season holds double weight (if not more)..good or bad.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You said “elite” pay. I’ll resubmit that argument is not valid information (unless you scratch the surface and split hairs) He’s not paid elite $ when considering his contract is brand new and the veteran K contracts generally don’t vary much

You're just arguing semantics here. Crosby is currently the third highest paid kicker in the league and the numbers support that he doesn't deserve it by any means.

As of the late, only 4 Kickers had a better FG % than Mason Crosby last season...

Josh Lambo 97% (missed an extra point)
Justin Tucker 97% (missed 2 extra points)
Chris Boswell 94 %(+PERFECT XP)
Dan Bailey 93% (plus missed 4 extra points)

Mason Crosby 92% (+PERFECT XP)

I’d say that’s a pretty good crowd and I would argue that he’s essentially tied with Dan Bailey for 4th place when factoring in 4 points lost by Bailey.
He should be getting a top 5-10 contract.. exactly where he’s at when factoring in his starts this coming season. You either hire him or you don’t.. you don’t offer him 723,000 less based on career average, that’s a good way to have a K leave to another team willing to pay him 4mil

Once again, the Packers didn't put Crosby in a lot of tough situations last season, that's why his percentage went up. As I've mentioned repeatedly I'm not suggesting that Gutekunst should have saved some couple $100Ks on re-singing him but let him walk away and replace him with a kicker on a rookie deal.

This notion of using a career average as an argument for a K just doesn’t hold (no pun).

I'm interested in why using career average doesn't hold up??? Because it doesn't fit your narrative???

 

[swhitset]

You're just arguing semantics here. Crosby is currently the third highest paid kicker in the league and the numbers support that he doesn't deserve it by any means.



Once again, the Packers didn't put Crosby in a lot of tough situations last season, that's why his percentage went up. As I've mentioned repeatedly I'm not suggesting that Gutekunst should have saved some couple $100Ks on re-singing him but let him walk away and replace him with a kicker on a rookie deal.



I'm interested in why using career average doesn't hold up??? Because it doesn't fit your narrative???

Make no mistake, like several others, I do disagree with you regarding Crosby, but I’m also curious why you seem to care so much. While it’s true that the Packers could probably use the money elsewhere.... it just doesn’t seem like enough to be worth such a lengthy debate.