Scotland Yard
What the hell is going on around here!
- Joined
- Dec 19, 2011
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This turned into quite the chore, but I wanted to compare sub-5'11" corners in the top 3 rounds to those 5'11" and over. I chose the top three rounds because a) there has to be some limit to the amount of names I'm pulling, and b) those are generally the rounds in which you're expecting to find starters. I'm considering a hit to be a guy who is/was a solid starter for a sustained amount of time. I started with the 2014 class and worked backwards as that is the most recent class that I feel can be fairly evaluated. There are many more 5'11" and up players out there, so for them I went back to 2010 and for the shorties I went back to '05 (the sample sizes were 42-13 if I stopped at '10 for both). Disclaimer: there is a subjective element to this and the farther back it goes, the fuzzier my memory gets of these players. When in doubt, look through the names and decide for yourself.
Sub 5'11":
I've starred the guys that I'm considering hits. So you're talking about a hit rate of 41%. Going back an extra 5 years gave the numbers a big boost. If you stop at 2010, it's 31%.
- Jason Verrett (1st)*
- Dexter McDougle (3rd)
- Robert Alford (2nd)*
- Leon McFadden (3rd)
- Kayvon Webster (3rd)
- Janoris Jenkins (2nd)*
- Josh Robinson (3rd)
- Dwight Bentley (3rd)
- Jayron Hosley (3rd)
- Brandon Harris (2nd)
- Kareem Jackson (1st)*
- Kyle Wilson (1st)
- Javier Arenas (2nd)
- Alphonso Smith (2nd)
- Darius Butler (2nd)
- Asher Allen (3rd)
- Lardarius Webb (3rd)*
- Chris Owens (3rd)
- Jerraud Powers (3rd)*
- Ryan Mouton (3rd)
- Leodis McKelvin (1st)*
- Mike Jenkins (1st)*
- Brandon Flowers (2nd)*
- Terrence Wheatley (2nd)
- Eric Wright (2nd)*
- Josh Wilson (2nd)*
- Dante Hughes (3rd)
- Tye Hill (1st)
- Tim Jennings (2nd)*
- Adam Jones (1st)*
- Darrent Williams (2nd)
- Justin Miller (2nd)
- Ellis Hobbs (3rd)*
- Scott Starks (3rd)
5'11"+:
The hit rate here is 36%.
- Justin Gilbert (1st)
- Kyle Fuller (1st)*
- Darqueze Dennard (1st)
- Bradley Roby (1st)
- Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2nd)
- Phillip Gaines (3rd)
- Dee Milliner (1st)
- D.J. Hayden (1st)
- Desmond Trufant (1st)*
- Xavier Rhodes (1st)*
- Darius Slay (2nd)*
- Johnthan Banks (2nd)
- David Amerson (2nd)*
- Jamar Taylor (2nd)*
- Dwayne Gratz (3rd)
- Blidi Wreh-Wilson (3rd)
- Logan Ryan (3rd)*
- Will Davis (3rd)
- Morris Claiborne (1st)
- Stephon Gilmore (1st)*
- Dre Kirkpatrick (1st)*
- Casey Hayward (2nd)*
- Trumaine Johnson (2nd)*
- Jamell Fleming (3rd)
- Patrick Peterson (1st)*
- Prince Amukamara (1st)*
- Jimmy Smith (1st)*
- Ras-I Dowling (2nd)
- Chris Culliver (3rd)
- Demarcus Van **** (3rd)
- Johnny Patrick (3rd)
- Shareece Wright (3rd)
- Curtis Marsh (3rd)
- Curtis Brown (3rd)
- Joe Haden (1st)*
- Patrick Robinson (1st)
- Chris Cook (2nd)
- Jerome Murphy (3rd)
- Amari Spievey (3rd)
- Myron Lewis (3rd)
- Kevin Thomas (3rd)
- Brandon Ghee (3rd)
5/7 of the first round shorties were considered hits.
9/16 of the first round non-shorties were considered hits.
Based on this very rough study, it doesn't seem to make a tremendous amount of sense to rule out short corners. It would seem to me that if a short corner is talented enough to get themselves taken high in the draft, chances are they will pay off to some extent. The one thing I notice not in their favor is that most of the "#1" corners are taller. There are 2-3 "#1" types in that list of short corners, if I'm being generous. There are 5-6 in the tall group, and there would be quite a few more if I took it back to '05.
Bottom line-- I doubt TT will consider players like Adoree' Jackson very seriously, but I think he should. I understand some of the minimums that he seems to hold to, but this one doesn't seem very helpful.
Amazing analysis!
I'd have never guessed the shorter CB's were hitting more than the tall guys (and it could be worse, I'd bet about 99% of Bears fans will not agree that Kyle Fuller was a hit, but, I'm not going to quibble over it).
My thinking is only that I'm sick and tired of seeing TT bring in tall guys that can't cover. What's the point? TT's taller corners are more often than not 3+ yards away from the WR watching him make a reception...if they're not able to stay with a WR it is irrelevant how tall they might be.
If TT is passing up guys like Verrett or J. Jenkins (each 5'10") because they are 1" shorter than Randall or Rollins, his philosophy is failing.