Cornerbacks

[Scotland Yard]

This turned into quite the chore, but I wanted to compare sub-5'11" corners in the top 3 rounds to those 5'11" and over. I chose the top three rounds because a) there has to be some limit to the amount of names I'm pulling, and b) those are generally the rounds in which you're expecting to find starters. I'm considering a hit to be a guy who is/was a solid starter for a sustained amount of time. I started with the 2014 class and worked backwards as that is the most recent class that I feel can be fairly evaluated. There are many more 5'11" and up players out there, so for them I went back to 2010 and for the shorties I went back to '05 (the sample sizes were 42-13 if I stopped at '10 for both). Disclaimer: there is a subjective element to this and the farther back it goes, the fuzzier my memory gets of these players. When in doubt, look through the names and decide for yourself.

Sub 5'11":

1. Jason Verrett (1st)*
2. Dexter McDougle (3rd)
3. Robert Alford (2nd)*
4. Leon McFadden (3rd)
5. Kayvon Webster (3rd)
6. Janoris Jenkins (2nd)*
7. Josh Robinson (3rd)
8. Dwight Bentley (3rd)
9. Jayron Hosley (3rd)
10. Brandon Harris (2nd)
11. Kareem Jackson (1st)*
12. Kyle Wilson (1st)
13. Javier Arenas (2nd)
14. Alphonso Smith (2nd)
15. Darius Butler (2nd)
16. Asher Allen (3rd)
17. Lardarius Webb (3rd)*
18. Chris Owens (3rd)
19. Jerraud Powers (3rd)*
20. Ryan Mouton (3rd)
21. Leodis McKelvin (1st)*
22. Mike Jenkins (1st)*
23. Brandon Flowers (2nd)*
24. Terrence Wheatley (2nd)
25. Eric Wright (2nd)*
26. Josh Wilson (2nd)*
27. Dante Hughes (3rd)
28. Tye Hill (1st)
29. Tim Jennings (2nd)*
30. Adam Jones (1st)*
31. Darrent Williams (2nd)
32. Justin Miller (2nd)
33. Ellis Hobbs (3rd)*
34. Scott Starks (3rd)

I've starred the guys that I'm considering hits. So you're talking about a hit rate of 41%. Going back an extra 5 years gave the numbers a big boost. If you stop at 2010, it's 31%.

5'11"+:

1. Justin Gilbert (1st)
2. Kyle Fuller (1st)*
3. Darqueze Dennard (1st)
4. Bradley Roby (1st)
5. Stanley Jean-Baptiste (2nd)
6. Phillip Gaines (3rd)
7. Dee Milliner (1st)
8. D.J. Hayden (1st)
9. Desmond Trufant (1st)*
10. Xavier Rhodes (1st)*
11. Darius Slay (2nd)*
12. Johnthan Banks (2nd)
13. David Amerson (2nd)*
14. Jamar Taylor (2nd)*
15. Dwayne Gratz (3rd)
16. Blidi Wreh-Wilson (3rd)
17. Logan Ryan (3rd)*
18. Will Davis (3rd)
19. Morris Claiborne (1st)
20. Stephon Gilmore (1st)*
21. Dre Kirkpatrick (1st)*
22. Casey Hayward (2nd)*
23. Trumaine Johnson (2nd)*
24. Jamell Fleming (3rd)
25. Patrick Peterson (1st)*
26. Prince Amukamara (1st)*
27. Jimmy Smith (1st)*
28. Ras-I Dowling (2nd)
29. Chris Culliver (3rd)
30. Demarcus Van **** (3rd)
31. Johnny Patrick (3rd)
32. Shareece Wright (3rd)
33. Curtis Marsh (3rd)
34. Curtis Brown (3rd)
35. Joe Haden (1st)*
36. Patrick Robinson (1st)
37. Chris Cook (2nd)
38. Jerome Murphy (3rd)
39. Amari Spievey (3rd)
40. Myron Lewis (3rd)
41. Kevin Thomas (3rd)
42. Brandon Ghee (3rd)

The hit rate here is 36%.

5/7 of the first round shorties were considered hits.

9/16 of the first round non-shorties were considered hits.

Based on this very rough study, it doesn't seem to make a tremendous amount of sense to rule out short corners. It would seem to me that if a short corner is talented enough to get themselves taken high in the draft, chances are they will pay off to some extent. The one thing I notice not in their favor is that most of the "#1" corners are taller. There are 2-3 "#1" types in that list of short corners, if I'm being generous. There are 5-6 in the tall group, and there would be quite a few more if I took it back to '05.

Bottom line-- I doubt TT will consider players like Adoree' Jackson very seriously, but I think he should. I understand some of the minimums that he seems to hold to, but this one doesn't seem very helpful.

Amazing analysis!

I'd have never guessed the shorter CB's were hitting more than the tall guys (and it could be worse, I'd bet about 99% of Bears fans will not agree that Kyle Fuller was a hit, but, I'm not going to quibble over it).

My thinking is only that I'm sick and tired of seeing TT bring in tall guys that can't cover. What's the point? TT's taller corners are more often than not 3+ yards away from the WR watching him make a reception...if they're not able to stay with a WR it is irrelevant how tall they might be.

If TT is passing up guys like Verrett or J. Jenkins (each 5'10") because they are 1" shorter than Randall or Rollins, his philosophy is failing.

 

[Dantés]

Amazing analysis!

I'd have never guessed the shorter CB's were hitting more than the tall guys (and it could be worse, I'd bet about 99% of Bears fans will not agree that Kyle Fuller was a hit, but, I'm not going to quibble over it).

My thinking is only that I'm sick and tired of seeing TT bring in tall guys that can't cover. What's the point? TT's taller corners are more often than not 3+ yards away from the WR watching him make a reception...if they're not able to stay with a WR it is irrelevant how tall they might be.

If TT is passing up guys like Verrett or J. Jenkins (each 5'10") because they are 1" shorter than Randall or Rollins, his philosophy is failing.

I totally understand setting minimums if they've shown themselves to be worthwhile. At WR, for example, my recollection is that the "6' rule" is generally a good risk mitigation policy. If I have time, I'll look at it as well eventually. But I think they need to self-evaluate enough to see where their minimums are more of a hindrance than a help.

EDIT: Off topic, but I was thinking of the Forrest Lamp discussion and Cody Whitehair came to mind. Similar prospect out of KSU last year. Not as strong as Lamp, but otherwise profiles very similarly. He was considered a first round player all through the process and then fell to the Bears at #56. He was good for them last year, so I'm sure they're happy about it. But I guess there's a good example of a guy like that dropping when he was regarded as a 1st round talent. We will see if Lamp is asssessed the same way.

 

[brandon2348]

Harris is a grand slam pass rusher who the Packers desperately need.

I guess we'll see but he runs as well as Richard Rodgers I dont think that's gonna translate. his agility numbers are also not very good I think what you want is good tape and workout numbers so you can relatively safely assume their game will translate and get better in the nfl. I don't think Harris can get much better because athletically he's not gonna be able to cut it. I'd take watt or Willis and be happy seems both can set the edge and rush the passer. if I had to choose between the 2 I'd take Willis as his 10 yard split was 1.54 which is an indicator of likely elite pass rush ability when paired with his tape. if he falls to 2nd round pick that'd be a steal probably have to take him at 29 though. That's tied for the 2nd best I was able to find with wr Penn state Chris Godwin another player I could see TT taking in the 2nd and cb Shaq Griffen a player that could be headed to green bay in 4/5th round. best was Obi Melifonwu 1.51 which makes him a interesting option to man the nickel corner spot vacated by Hyde or the nickel linebacker played by Morgan Burnett.[/QUOTE]

Ive already been down this road. Harris's pro day numbers are good enough for what you want to see out of an edge rusher. He has proven production against SEC competition and has the quickest first step of the whole bunch.

I do like Willis as I think he can do more as far as setting the edge but don't see him as the elite pass rusher Harris will be. Harris is a line up day 1 and rush the passer guy which the Packers desperately need.

Watt concerns me. Him and Bowser were nowhere near the 1st round until the combine. This typically means "stay away". Watt has lower body concerns and Bowser appears to me as situational player at next level. I like both of these guys in 2nd.

 

[Dantés]

Watt has been consistently ranked inside the top 40 by many since January.

Bowser's stock has "risen" (at least on the media side), but not Watt's.

 

[brandon2348]

Watt has been consistently ranked inside the top 40 by many since January.

Bowser's stock has "risen" (at least on the media side), but not Watt's.

Yes and some also had Watt being there in 2nd when Packers draft. I'm just kinda torn on Watt. How many Packer Backers would want him so badly if he didn't play for the Badgers? I can see potential with Watt and wouldn't put him in a high bust category but it will be interesting to see what his ceiling actually is.

Are we looking at another Frackrell who needs to bulk up?

 

[Dantés]

Yes and some also had Watt being there in 2nd when Packers draft. I'm just kinda torn on Watt. How many Packer Backers would want him so badly if he didn't play for the Badgers? I can see potential with Watt and wouldn't put him in a high bust category but it will be interesting to see what his ceiling actually is.

Are we looking at another Frackrell who needs to bulk up?

If Watt is another Fackrell who needs to bulk up at 254, what does that say about your boy Harris?

I can only tell you want I see. I'm not from Wisconsin and I'm not a Badgers fan. Watt has strong hands and knows how to manipulate tackles. He's flexible and explosive. He's also capable against the run and dropping into coverage. His ceiling is through the roof.

 

[brandon2348]

If Watt is another Fackrell who needs to bulk up at 254, what does that say about your boy Harris?

I can only tell you want I see. I'm not from Wisconsin and I'm not a Badgers fan. Watt has strong hands and knows how to manipulate tackles. He's flexible and explosive. He's also capable against the run and dropping into coverage. His ceiling is through the roof.

Well unfortunately Watt need a couple more years on the squat rack. This isn't the Big 10.

 

[Dantés]

Well unfortunately Watt need a couple more years on the squat rack. This isn't the Big 10.

Lol. The Big 10 was better than the SEC last year and he's a better run defender than Harris. If these are your standards, why aren't you applying them to him?

 

[brandon2348]

Lol. The Big 10 was better than the SEC last year and he's a better run defender than Harris. If these are your standards, why aren't you applying them to him?

The only knock on Harris is inconsistentcy. If you watch the tape of his 2015 season is where he was really amazing. Mizzou went to a different scheme last year with a new coach and it screwed up Harris a bit. In 2015 when Harris had his breakout year they ran a lot of "flexible 3-4" and 4-2-5 nickle with 3 down lineman. This scheme allowed Harris to flourish on the edge and show off his explosion and quickness off the line. He is the type of player that I am sure leaves Dom Capers drooling. He fits the Packers perfectly and would be the perfect guy to have opposite Perry.

If they draft Harris Clay won't keep his job. Not for long anyway.

 

[Dantés]

The only knock on Harris is inconsistentcy. If you watch the tape of his 2015 season is where he was really amazing. Mizzou went to a different scheme last year with a new coach and it screwed up Harris a bit. In 2015 when Harris had break his breakout year they ran a lot of "flexible 3-4" and 4-2-5 nickle with 3 down lineman. This scheme allowed Harris to flourish on the edge and show off his explosion and quickness off the line. He is the type of player that I am sure leaves Dom Capers drooling. He fits the Packers perfectly and would be the perfect guy to have opposite Perry.

If they draft Harris Clay won't keep his job. Not for long anyway.

No, the real knock on him is that he's not a good run defender. People understand about the scheme change. I haven't heard of anyone holding it against him. The run defense isn't a huge deal, but it's funny to me that you level that criticism against Bowser and Watt and gloss it with Harris.

The reason I see Watt or Bowser as perfect compliments to Perry is that they can drop in space if you want them to. Harris is a good, refined pass rusher, but he can't do that. Which is far from a deal breaker. It's just a factor in forming preferences between a few good prospects.

 

[brandon2348]

No, the real knock on him is that he's not a good run defender. People understand about the scheme change. I haven't heard of anyone holding it against him. The run defense isn't a huge deal, but it's funny to me that you level that criticism against Bowser and Watt and gloss it with Harris.

The reason I see Watt or Bowser as perfect compliments to Perry is that they can drop in space if you want them to. Harris is a good, refined pass rusher, but he can't do that. Which is far from a deal breaker. It's just a factor in forming preferences between a few good prospects.

I keep seeing these traits you want and what you want is Haason Red****. If TT trades up to get Red**** I will not complain one bit. I actually was all over Red**** before he jumped up so much.

There is no guarantee Watt or Bowser will be able to do these things. That's why I say take the best pass rusher and hope you can develop some of the other things.

 

[Dantés]

I keep seeing these traits you want and what you want is Haason Red****. If TT trades up to get Red**** I will not complain one bit. I actually was all over Red**** before he jumped up so much.

There is no guarantee Watt or Bowser will be able to do these things. That's why I say take the best pass rusher and hope you can develop some of the other things.

Negative. I don't see Red**** ever being able to carry the weight to live on the edge. I think he's an ILB in our base who can cover or rush or blitz on passing downs. I love him, but he's not the same guy.

Watt and Bowser already can drop and rush so I don't see how there's any more or less guarantee that their skills translate than anyone else. But that type of athleticism historically translates very well.

 

[brandon2348]

Negative. I don't see Red**** ever being able to carry the weight to live on the edge. I think he's an ILB in our base who can cover or rush or blitz on passing downs. I love him, but he's not the same guy.

Watt and Bowser already can drop and rush so I don't see how there's any more or less guarantee that their skills translate than anyone else. But that type of athleticism historically translates very well.

Even if they can I'm concerned with spending the 29th pick for an OLB that can cover. The name of the game is "pass rush" and if you have a chance to get a player with a Justin Houston 1st step you don't screw that up and try to get greedy trying to get some hybrid version based on fancy combine numbers. You take what you see on tape and if it fits your needs and what your trying to do then you run with it.

I have no problem with the Packers using middle rounds to go after special type athletes that they can develop but we're talking about a 1st round pick here and when it's the only means really used of bringing in talent you can't screw it up.

 

[Dantés]

Even if they can I'm concerned with spending the 29th pick for an OLB that can cover. The name of the game is "pass rush" and if you have a chance to get a player with a Justin Houston 1st step you don't screw that up and try to get greedy trying to get some hybrid version based on fancy combine numbers. You take what you see on tape and if it fits your needs and what your trying to do then you run with it.

I have no problem with the Packers using middle rounds to go after special type athletes that they can develop but we're talking about a 1st round pick here and when it's the only means really used of bringing in talent you can't screw it up.

Being able to cover and being able to rush the passer are not mutually exclusive skills.

 

[brandon2348]

Being able to cover and being able to rush the passer are not mutually exclusive skills.

That's fine but the problem is Tyus Bowser or Watt aren't the next Khalil Mack. It takes more then fancy combine numbers.

 

[thequick12]

The corners in that top 50 discussion who hit these numbers are:

-Gareon Conley, Ohio State
-Marlon Humphrey, Alabama
-Kevin King, Washington
-Chidobe Awuzie, Colorado

We don't yet have sufficient data for Marshon Lattimore.

I'd sign up for any of those guys at #29.[/QUOTE]

Id be cool with King or Awuzie. don't think Humphrey or conley have the ball skills that king and Awuzie do

 

[Dantés]

Id be cool with King or Awuzie. don't think Humphrey or conley have the ball skills that king and Awuzie do

I don't think that's a real knock on Conley. He's really good. I'd take him at #29 all day long. I do see what you mean with Humphrey though. He struggles to locate the ball in the air. It's a scary deficiency. However, he's so young and so talented that at the end of the first round I think you have to take him and work with him. The kid isn't even 21 yet, and he's one of the more refined corners in the other areas of his game. I'd take that risk.

 

[brandon2348]

I don't think that's a real knock on Conley. He's really good. I'd take him at #29 all day long. I do see what you mean with Humphrey though. He struggles to locate the ball in the air. It's a scary deficiency. However, he's so young and so talented that at the end of the first round I think you have to take him and work with him. The kid isn't even 21 yet, and he's one of the more refined corners in the other areas of his game. I'd take that risk.

Many predict Awuzie as a slot guy. I don't know if King is a prefect fit for Packers system and I have him being gone anyways before the Packers draft.

Humphrey scares the hell out of me. He does get lost tracking the ball and who did we see that happening too all year long in our secondary? For whatever reason Bama corners haven't done all that well in the NFL either.

I agree, Conley is the easy choice here. I would love him or White.

 

[Dantés]

Awuzie is good in the slot, but I see no reason why he should be restricted to the role in the NFL. He can and has played both inside and outside. But I expect better talent to be on the board at that point regardless.

 

[Scotland Yard]

EDIT: Off topic, but I was thinking of the Forrest Lamp discussion and Cody Whitehair came to mind. Similar prospect out of KSU last year. Not as strong as Lamp, but otherwise profiles very similarly. He was considered a first round player all through the process and then fell to the Bears at #56. He was good for them last year, so I'm sure they're happy about it. But I guess there's a good example of a guy like that dropping when he was regarded as a 1st round talent. We will see if Lamp is asssessed the same way.

Whitehair played in a power 5 conference and I respect the KSU head coach, so, I didn't have the same reservations about Whitehair like I do for Lamp. Whitehair is also exactly what the Packers love, a guy who can play any position on the OL, whereas Lamp seems to project only as a guard. So, I can see a better argument for Whitehair in round one.

However, in a way you have unintentionally proved my point regarding Lamp. Whitehair was a better prospect (imo)coming out of the Big 12, a power 5, and mistakenly projected to go 1st round, but, was indeed a second round pick. The 'analysts' considered him a 1st round pick, but, NFL scouts did not. You pretty much just proved my point that Lamp is more likely going to be a second round pick and the Packers are not going to take him at #29.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In hindsight, perhaps the Packers wish they would have taken Whitehair rather than Spriggs. Had TT known he would be cutting Sitton 3 months later and would lose Lang in 2017, you'd think Whitehair would have been the pick. (They might not have traded up because the Bears were desperate for OT and the Bears probably would have grabbed Spriggs, leaving Whitehair on the board. Think about that, the Bears ended up with a great pick thanks to TT jumping in front of them. Doh!)

 

[Dantés]

Whitehair played in a power 5 conference and I respect the KSU head coach, so, I didn't have the same reservations about Whitehair like I do for Lamp. Whitehair is also exactly what the Packers love, a guy who can play any position on the OL, whereas Lamp seems to project only as a guard. So, I can see a better argument for Whitehair in round one.

However, in a way you have unintentionally proved my point regarding Lamp. Whitehair was a better prospect (imo)coming out of the Big 12, a power 5, and mistakenly projected to go 1st round, but, was indeed a second round pick. The 'analysts' considered him a 1st round pick, but, NFL scouts did not. You pretty much just proved my point that Lamp is more likely going to be a second round pick and the Packers are not going to take him at #29.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In hindsight, perhaps the Packers wish they would have taken Whitehair rather than Spriggs. Had TT known he would be cutting Sitton 3 months later and would lose Lang in 2017, you'd think Whitehair would have been the pick. (They might not have traded up because the Bears were desperate for OT and the Bears probably would have grabbed Spriggs, leaving Whitehair on the board. Think about that, the Bears ended up with a great pick thanks to TT jumping in front of them. Doh!)

That wasn't unintentional Scotty. I was just sharing an example that came to mind that supports your perspective. I'm not out to be right here.

Where I disagree with you on these two is versatility. I think Lamp is more capable of playing tackle than Whitehair was/is.

 

[Dantés]

If for any reason the Packers don't take a CB at #29, Shaq Griffin is a guy to watch. I didn't watch him at UCF but he fits the profile that they typically target. Somewhere in the 3rd or 4th?

 

[thisisnate]

Gareon Conley was recently accused of ****. No charges. If he's innocent, the timing could not be worse.

 

[Dantés]

There's going to be a huge scramble to vet the situation over the next 48 hours.

 

[brandon2348]

If for any reason the Packers don't take a CB at #29, Shaq Griffin is a guy to watch. I didn't watch him at UCF but he fits the profile that they typically target. Somewhere in the 3rd or 4th?

Explosive athlete and good player. I watch a lot of AAC football as it's one of the easier conferences to handicap. Can't say I'm "all in" on him and it kind of becomes a crap shoot at some point with these guys.

Great value in 3-4th rounds.