Conservative 2nd Half Play Calling

Packer Brother

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 5, 2016
Messages
709
Reaction score
51
Location
Philadelphia
After Burnett intercepted Wilson with five minutes left in the game the Packers had a win probablity of 99.9%.



A lot of Packers fans forget how great the 2014 Seahawks defense was playing when they faced the Packers in the NFCCG. Seattle had given up a total of 56 points over the last seven games entering this contest, holding five opponents to seven or less points during that span. The Packers offense putting up 22 points should have been good enough to win.



Capers isn't to blame for Barrington being fooled on the same pick play he defended perfectly earlier in the game, Clinton-Dix messing up on the two point conversion and Hayward and Williams botched coverages in overtime.

The Packers not having a single owner is most likely the reason they are still playing in Green Bay. I wouldn't complain about that.


It's not just that game with Capers. It's a continued pattern of playoff failures. Coaches get fired all the time. Is it totally their fault? No. However you can't get rid of the whole team. This team ( Pending another playoff failure) needs change!! Fans deserve better. Status quo isn't working anymore.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,078
Reaction score
7,896
Location
Madison, WI
Not too sure how many people here follow the Badgers or watched the game against Michigan yesterday. But the first 55 or so minutes played out much like the Packer-Seahawks NFCCG still being discussed. Tight defensive battle all day long, Wolverines opting to attempt 3 FG's during the game (all missed). Wolverines up by 7 (14-7) with the ball and 5 minutes to go. Harbaugh didn't flinch or panic, he ran the ball 3 straight times without picking up a first down, but forced the Badgers to use all of their timeouts. Michigan then punted the ball back to the Badgers. No problem, the Michigan defense had been playing great all day. The game ended because the defense continued to do their job and shut the Badgers down. Wolverines win 14-7 and Harbaugh is being praised for the way he coached the game and stuck with his plan.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2016/10/01/michigan-wolverines-wisconsin-badgers-jim-harbaugh
 
Last edited:

Carl

Cheesehead
Joined
Nov 6, 2013
Messages
3,073
Reaction score
272
Location
Madison, Wisconsin
Not too sure how many people here follow the Badgers or watched the game against Michigan yesterday. But the first 55 or so minutes played out much like the Packer-Seahawks NFCCG still being discussed. Tight defensive battle all day long, Wolverines opting to attempt 3 FG's during the game (all missed). Wolverines up by 7 (14-7) with the ball and 5 minutes to go. Harbaugh didn't flinch or panic, he ran the ball 3 straight times without picking up a first down, but forced the Badgers to use all of their timeouts. Michigan then punted the ball back to the Badgers. No problem, the Michigan defense had been playing great all day. The game ended because the defense continued to do their job and shut the Badgers down. Wolverines win 14-7 and Harbaugh is being praised for the way he coached the game and stuck with his plan.

http://www.si.com/college-football/2016/10/01/michigan-wolverines-wisconsin-badgers-jim-harbaugh

But if the Badgers scored, Harbaugh would be criticized for being too conservative.

That's how it goes with most fans and experts. If it works, coach was good. If it didn't, coach was bad.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,333
Reaction score
1,265
Honestly, though I did not like the play calling of michigan that time; Their defense still would have held the Badgers with or w/0 the timeout. And I don't trust GB's D to hold the opponent. Or more to the point, I don't trust the way Capers would likely call it.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,078
Reaction score
7,896
Location
Madison, WI
Honestly, though I did not like the play calling of michigan that time; Their defense still would have held the Badgers with or w/0 the timeout. And I don't trust GB's D to hold the opponent. Or more to the point, I don't trust the way Capers would likely call it.

I guess if you are the head coach in that situation you have to ask yourself a lot of questions. The #1 question being, what gives us the best shot to win the game? IMO, In a low scoring game where your defense is playing well and/or the other teams offense has been struggling all day and you have a 7 or more point lead , you trust your defense and have your offense run as much time off the clock and not turn the ball over on anything but a punt. Passing the ball has a higher percentage of running less clock (incomplete) and a higher percentage of turning the ball over. The opposite situation would be a high scoring game that you are in a dogfight. Both offenses are moving the ball well, both defenses are playing poorly and it appears the team to score last has the best chance of winning. Then you get more aggressive and your #1 goal becomes possessing the ball as long as you possibly can and maybe score some points in the process. That wasn't the situation yesterday for Michigan nor was it the situation for the Packers in the NFCCG with Seattle.
 
Last edited:

Carl

Cheesehead
Joined
Nov 6, 2013
Messages
3,073
Reaction score
272
Location
Madison, Wisconsin
Honestly, though I did not like the play calling of michigan that time; Their defense still would have held the Badgers with or w/0 the timeout. And I don't trust GB's D to hold the opponent. Or more to the point, I don't trust the way Capers would likely call it.

Pretty sure Capers didn't call all the mistakes the players made vs. Seattle late like Captain pointed out earlier.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,333
Reaction score
1,265
First off when the other team has 3 time outs, we aren't using any clock. And 2ndly, Capers and his 3 man rush had as much to do with that loss (or more) than anyone.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
It's not just that game with Capers. It's a continued pattern of playoff failures. Coaches get fired all the time. Is it totally their fault? No. However you can't get rid of the whole team. This team ( Pending another playoff failure) needs change!! Fans deserve better. Status quo isn't working anymore.

I would have been fine with the Packers firing Capers after the disaster in the 2012 playoff loss at San Francisco as the team wasn't prepared to defend the Niners read option offense at all.

There's no reason to blame the defensive coordinator for any other of the Packers playoff losses though.

First off when the other team has 3 time outs, we aren't using any clock.

Running the ball forces the opponent to use their time-outs though while an incomplete pass automatically stops the clock.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,333
Reaction score
1,265
There is a big difference with having time outs when you are on defense than when you are on offense. If you give a team time; it still will come down to having to stop them. See the Rams/Cardinals game yesterday. So it is way better to play for a 1st down and then really use up the clock.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
There is a big difference with having time outs when you are on defense than when you are on offense. If you give a team time; it still will come down to having to stop them. See the Rams/Cardinals game yesterday. So it is way better to play for a 1st down and then really use up the clock.

The Packers for sure tried to get a first down but the players didn't execute the running plays properly. It doesn't matter if a team has to burn time-outs on offense or defense as taking three of them will aporoximately save two minutes no matter what.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,333
Reaction score
1,265
The point is...unless you get a 1st down...you are still going to have to stop them anyway. And running when they believe you are going to run does not come down to execution because the odds are stacked against you. And if you cannot see that it makes a difference whether they use them on offense or defense; then you need to give it more thought. More to the point. Since you will have to stop them anyway; you should make more of an effort to get the 1st down.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
The point is...unless you get a 1st down...you are still going to have to stop them anyway. And running when they believe you are going to run does not come down to execution because the odds are stacked against you. And if you cannot see that it makes a difference whether they use them on offense or defense; then you need to give it more thought. More to the point. Since you will have to stop them anyway; you should make more of an effort to get the 1st down.

The Packers didn't kneel down to force the Seahawks to use their time-outs but tried to run for a first down. That's a good enough effort in my opinion. If you don't get that an incomplete pass saves the opponent aporoximately 40 seconds than you should put more thought into it.

It's true that by not getting several first downs in that situation the Packers had to stop the Seahawks but that doesn't mean the Packers should have passed the ball possibly resulting in Seattle being able to save time-outs.
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
Yes, it does

Do you realize that Rodgers once threw the ball on the two drives late in the game with the Packers leading 19-7 and that play resulted in an incompletion saving the Seahawks a time-out and 40 seconds???

Throwing the ball doesn't guarantee getting a first down.
 

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,766
Reaction score
896
It's not just that game with Capers. It's a continued pattern of playoff failures. Coaches get fired all the time. Is it totally their fault? No. However you can't get rid of the whole team. This team ( Pending another playoff failure) needs change!! Fans deserve better. Status quo isn't working anymore.

Let's see....the recent Super Bowl the Packers won was built on Capers' defense. Capers defense was the best part of the team last season and has been the best part of the team this season (for some weird reason people think a defense that plays 97 first and second year players should be amazing). I'd say Capers is doing a very good job and, if there are issues with coaching, one might want to look at the side of the ball that's actually underperformed HUGELY for over a year now.
 

Sunshinepacker

Cheesehead
Joined
Jul 29, 2013
Messages
5,766
Reaction score
896
A lot of Packers fans forget how great the 2014 Seahawks defense was playing when they faced the Packers in the NFCCG. Seattle had given up a total of 56 points over the last seven games entering this contest, holding five opponents to seven or less points during that span. The Packers offense putting up 22 points should have been good enough to win.

When the Packers defense forced Wilson to throw FOUR interceptions, the offense should have scored more than 22 points. I still don't understand the logic of giving up on the offense because the defense on the Seawhaks is really good. Wasn't the Packers' offense also supposed to be really good? The Packers had the best offense in the NFL that season and the defense gave them four extra possessions. Why is that not enough?
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
When the Packers defense forced Wilson to throw FOUR interceptions, the offense should have scored more than 22 points. I still don't understand the logic of giving up on the offense because the defense on the Seawhaks is really good. Wasn't the Packers' offense also supposed to be really good? The Packers had the best offense in the NFL that season and the defense gave them four extra possessions. Why is that not enough?

There's no denying the Packers offense should have scored more than one touchdown in that game, especially with defense and special teams forcing five turnovers.

Nevertheless defense and special teams are partly to blame for the loss as well.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,333
Reaction score
1,265
Do you realize that Rodgers once threw the ball on the two drives late in the game with the Packers leading 19-7 and that play resulted in an incompletion saving the Seahawks a time-out and 40 seconds???

Throwing the ball doesn't guarantee getting a first down.
I am not only talking about one game. I am talking about a flawed way of understanding the situation. And one of the big flaws is that it is 40 seconds either on offense or defense. You definitely save all that time when on defense. But when on offense, it probably affects which calls you make and might save a lot of time, but most times it is far less than 40 seconds. And you have to stop them anyway. So get the 1st down. I am not saying don't make them spend time outs. I am saying getting the 1st down is more important then simply making them use a time out, and if you run when that is what they are playing against...unless you are far superior; you are not going to make it.
 

longtimefan

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Mar 7, 2005
Messages
25,356
Reaction score
4,086
Location
Milwaukee
When the Packers defense forced Wilson to throw FOUR interceptions, the offense should have scored more than 22 points. I still don't understand the logic of giving up on the offense because the defense on the Seawhaks is really good. Wasn't the Packers' offense also supposed to be really good? The Packers had the best offense in the NFL that season and the defense gave them four extra possessions. Why is that not enough?


Because some only think of what happened at the end.. The 1st 55 minutes dont count
 
D

Deleted member 6794

Guest
I am saying getting the 1st down is more important then simply making them use a time out, and if you run when that is what they are playing against...unless you are far superior; you are not going to make it.

It's true that getting the first down is the most important thing in that situation. It worked by running the ball four out of six times just a week earlier against the Cowboys.
 
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
We have seen it for 5 years now. We watch other teams run the score up for statement wins, Why do we go to that ridiculous pistol formation and run run run? MM cannot keep his foot on the gas? Why is that?
I'm late to this thread and have not read many of the posts, so I'll confine myself to the OP and it's application to the Lions game.

Possession 1: The Packers were moving the ball on the ground with Lacy. Rodgers ran the ball down to the 12 yard line for a first down, but Bulaga was called for holding leaving 3rd. and 20. FG.

Possession 2: The Packers got a first down on 2 Lacy runs. They called up passing plays on 2nd. and 8 and 3rd. and 8. The 3rd. and 8 was an intermediate middle throw to Cobb, hardly a conservative choice, which was a little behind him but catchable. Punt.

Possession 3: The drive opened with about a 10 yard throw to Davis, right in the bread basket, which he dropped. The following two plays are the only two you could allege to be unjustifiably conservative, though I would not. A Starks run on 2nd. and 10, then the dump off to Starks for 9 yards to the Packers 34 yard line. There were 6 minutes to play, a 14 point lead, and these conservative calls put the Packers in position to punt deep into Detroit territory, which they did.

Is it too much to expect the D to hold that lead from that field position with that time remaining? It d*mn well better not be, past history notwithstanding. This is the way good teams plan to close out games.

Possesion 4: 3:44 on the clock, ball on the Packer 25, 7 point lead. Good teams seek to burn clock and make the opponent use up time outs. Incomplete passes cost you 40 seconds of clock time or the opponent saving a time out.
Lacy run, Lacy run, Rodgers does the "conservative" thing in running for a first down rather than force a pass. Those 3 "conservative" plays burned all of Detroit's first downs and ended the game.

Had the first down not been achieved, would it be too much to expect the D to keep Detroit from going 80 or so yards in 2 minutes with no time outs? I don't think so.

The bellyaching over conservative play calls down this stretch can be accounted for in a couple of ways:

1. Fans being unhappy that the Packers did not cover their bet against a 7 point spread.
2. Fans being unhappy they were deprived of some fantasy points.
3. Most importantly, fans not trusting the D to hold a lead, this last point being the most understandable given past history.

In the end, having a D that can hold a late lead is essential to winning a championship. Consider this an exercise for when it counts most, even if the Packers last possession did not put them fully to the test.

It's also instructive to note that had Cobb and Davis caught those balls, Detroit may have never gotten back into the game. It's ironic that running the ball to burn clock was not the problem in letting Detroit back in the game. It was big plays surrendered and dropped passes.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
H

HardRightEdge

Guest
I'll say this much:

I'm a lot more optimistic about the growth trajectory and potential of the this team than I have been in many years.

It may be premature to expect a beat down on the Giants, but I suspect by the conclusion of this 4 game home stand, if the defensive injuries come around, that it will be expected against similar opponents.
 

Members online

No members online now.

Latest posts

Top