Brian Gutenkunst FA and Draft Grades

[McKnowledge]

Personally I think the QB position should draw a multiplied grade factor over the vast majority of draft selections. Someone drafting Tom Brady in RD6 should have a multiplier effect of crossing out a world of draft woes IF it hits. If not? it should be graded by draft location as usual. I see Jordan late RD1 as being at minimum a double impact draft impact grade. He’s basically hitting on a pair of Kenny Clark’s. So he’s not only an A grade, he erases a RD1 miss on top of it. That’s where Brian elevated himself imo.

Gute also took a RD1 and RD3 and turned it into J’aire + Savage, so that the net effect is he used a RD3 to acquire Darnell, who was C+ grade per collateral spent. I see some adversaries grade Brian on a RD1 for Darnell and on surface it looks dandy. There’s got to be a better grading system that rewards trades like this.

In FA Gute has been like B+ overall until 2025 but trending back into B grade territory lately. The Jury is out on Banks but Hobbs was an F+ and uncharacteristic misuse of $17? Guar.

On a C scale per $$$/draft spent

ZaDarius B
Preston B+
Amos B+
Turner B
Rasul A-
Sammy Watkins D+ (only 350K guar)
Tramon Williams B-
Keisean Nixon A
Xavier McKinney A-
Josh Jacobs B+
Malik Willis A
Banks (early C-)
Hobbs F+

That’s just my thoughts on the fly and its give or take +- variation, but close. I’d put Brian in the Top 6-8 GM’s in Free Agency thus far. I’d label him a Divisional level acquisition GM in Free Agency thus far. He’s not Elite but he’s going to steer you right more often than not.

Packers seriously need to bring back Rasul Douglas.

 

[OldSchool101]

Packers seriously need to bring back Rasul Douglas.

It makes logical sense. If sign him to a 2yr minimal deal for 2026 play and then trade him for a 2027 draft pick

In all seriousness I have no idea if there’s any animosity about sending him to Buffalo. But if he’s anywhere under $2-3Mil I’d agree. As far as I remember anything in that range won’t affect our comp formula (or won’t cost us a draft pick)

Perfect sized CB. He’s actually a better and bigger version of Kamal Hadden. Both started in small programs but flourished. Both are slower, HaHa 4.59 speed but use leverage and physicality to adjust for lack of speed.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Rodgers was spoiled with such a plethora of offensive talent, particularly in his first 10 years as a starter. And that includes the offensive line. But even with some defensive stars like Woodson, Matthews, Raji, Hawk, and Tramon the Packers were never able to put together a decent defense except for that one season. The contrast to what the New England teams did on both sides of the ball was what kept us out of other championships.

Good point milani. Especially during the Rodgers era, I don't recall a team with a dominant D (well except for the SB team in 2011). Rodgers had a lot of weapons on offense, but for some reason, the GMs could not build an elite D.

 

[milani]

Good point milani. Especially during the Rodgers era, I don't recall a team with a dominant D (well except for the SB team in 2011). Rodgers had a lot of weapons on offense, but for some reason, the GMs could not build an elite D.

We also had an offense that could move down the field very quickly. And even when we scored our D was not on the sideline long.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We also had an offense that could move down the field very quickly. And even when we scored our D was not on the sideline long.

I had not thought of that. And yeah, that team featuring Rodgers in his prime would strike early and often, and with little TOP. So the D was on the field more. Great point.

 

[milani]

I had not thought of that. And yeah, that team featuring Rodgers in his prime would strike early and often, and with little TOP. So the D was on the field more. Great point.

And if you look back at the 2010 team we thought that would be a high powered fast strike team because of all the offense we put up in the desert against AZ in 2009. But for some reason MM played that season in more of a move the chain game. Less points for and less points against. Used Kuhn for blocking and short passes and runs. Losing Ryan Grant and Finley changed the offense just enough.

 

[rmontro]

We also had an offense that could move down the field very quickly. And even when we scored our D was not on the sideline long.

Sometimes I thought we scored a little too fast.

But when they faced the elite defenses in the playoffs, they tended to get bogged down, which was frustrating. Even in their 15-1 season when they got beat in the playoffs by the Giants (37-20), the Packers had beaten them IN New York during the regular season 38-35 several weeks earlier. So they managed to score 38 points on the Giants on their home field, but come playoff time when it really counted, they could only score 20 at Lambeau. It seemed like a frustrating tendency with Rodgers' Packers.

 

[milani]

Sometimes I thought we scored a little too fast.

But when they faced the elite defenses in the playoffs, they tended to get bogged down, which was frustrating. Even in their 15-1 season when they got beat in the playoffs by the Giants (37-20), the Packers had beaten them IN New York during the regular season 38-35 several weeks earlier. So they managed to score 38 points on the Giants on their home field, but come playoff time when it really counted, they could only score 20 at Lambeau. It seemed like a frustrating tendency with Rodgers' Packers.

It was a bad day for the team. O line did not run block or even pass block well. Receivers were not stretching the field. And we missed having Nick Collins that day. Had he been there that Eli Hail Mary at the end of the half fails and the game is 7 points closer in the 3rd quarter.

 

[rmontro]

And we missed having Nick Collins that day. Had he been there that Eli Hail Mary at the end of the half fails and the game is 7 points closer in the 3rd quarter.

Ugh, that Hail Mary was a big blow. Funny, Rodgers became known for his Hail Marys for a time, although I believe that was later in his career.

 

[OldSchool101]

Sometimes I thought we scored a little too fast.

But when they faced the elite defenses in the playoffs, they tended to get bogged down, which was frustrating. Even in their 15-1 season when they got beat in the playoffs by the Giants (37-20), the Packers had beaten them IN New York during the regular season 38-35 several weeks earlier. So they managed to score 38 points on the Giants on their home field, but come playoff time when it really counted, they could only score 20 at Lambeau. It seemed like a frustrating tendency with Rodgers' Packers.

Exactly Rmontro. I don’t remember all the specifics but I do remember that game better. I had just gotten a newer PC and was learning some Johnny Cash songs. I wrote a tune on an old pawn shop guitar that was spinoff of Johnny, then used the “Moviemaker” software and a simple plastic plastic pencil microphone. So I ran through quite a few clips of the Game from various photographers etc that I video clipped with my music.

That game in particular was one where we couldn’t get anything going on Offense. Just a variety of things between turnovers, flags, fumbles, errant passes, poor play calling. The entire game almost felt like we had a curse on us. We’re all witnessed several of those but I’m surprised we scored 20pts actually. It felt like a 10 point game honestly.

PS. The one thing that stood out more than anything is as much as I used to hate the Giants? Those players were coming over to our sideline at various times and offering Joe Philbin support. His son had just drown (Fox?) trying to cross the icy River in early morning hours. For me the way the Giants Staff and Players handled themselves in such a high profile game and in a humbling manner really left an impression on me. We’re all different people and opinions, but at our heart we all experience pain and suffering that gives us common ground. We can’t forget those common ground moments imo.

 

[milani]

Ugh, that Hail Mary was a big blow. Funny, Rodgers became known for his Hail Marys for a time, although I believe that was later in his career.

And TT failed to resign Cullen Jenkins after 2010. Our D still had name players in 2011 but just could not get it done. It was only the 2nd time all season our offense was not able to explode and we paid for it. Even John Kuhn got carted off that day.

Ugh, that Hail Mary was a big blow. Funny, Rodgers became known for his Hail Marys for a time, although I believe that was later in his career.

 

[Pkrjones]

One writer's draft criteria ranks Gute as 3rd best drafter.

Packers third best drafters in NFL under Brian Gutekunst per draft model

A model analyzing the value teams find in the draft has ranked Green Bay as 3rd best in the NFL since Brian Gutekunst took over as GM in 2018.

packerswire.usatoday.com

 

[Magooch]

One writer's draft criteria ranks Gute as 3rd best drafter.

Packers third best drafters in NFL under Brian Gutekunst per draft model

A model analyzing the value teams find in the draft has ranked Green Bay as 3rd best in the NFL since Brian Gutekunst took over as GM in 2018.

packerswire.usatoday.com

Interesting for sure. 3rd is probably higher than my "gut" assessment but not that far-fetched on the whole.

That said it's also worth noting - the site is a paid service and the "free" option only lets you look at the last 3 years' grading.

In that regard they have us ranked 12th...with a 50% "hit rate," 8% "star rate," and just as many "starters" as "busts" at 33% for both.

Moreover the round by round breakdown is interesting (again, keep in mind, last three years)...
Round 1: F
Round 2: D
Round 3: A
Round 4: F
Round 5: D
Round 6: A
Round 7: B

 

[OldSchool101]

Interesting for sure. 3rd is probably higher than my "gut" assessment but not that far-fetched on he
Moreover the round by round breakdown is interesting (again, keep in mind, last three years)...
Round 1: F
Round 2: D
Round 3: A
Round 4: F
Round 5: D
Round 6: A
Round 7: B

Professor @Magooch. I know it’s past drop and add timeframe for classes, but I really think I need to talk to the Dean of Schools and try to get placed with a new Professor. No hard feelings kind Sir!

 

[Heyjoe4]

Interesting for sure. 3rd is probably higher than my "gut" assessment but not that far-fetched on the whole.

That said it's also worth noting - the site is a paid service and the "free" option only lets you look at the last 3 years' grading.

In that regard they have us ranked 12th...with a 50% "hit rate," 8% "star rate," and just as many "starters" as "busts" at 33% for both.

Moreover the round by round breakdown is interesting (again, keep in mind, last three years)...
Round 1: F
Round 2: D
Round 3: A
Round 4: F
Round 5: D
Round 6: A
Round 7: B

Interesting. I thought round 4 was strong for Gluten. The high grades for rounds 6 and 7 seem right.

Just as predicting the draft is subjective, so is grading the results.

 

[tynimiller]

Interesting for sure. 3rd is probably higher than my "gut" assessment but not that far-fetched on the whole.

That said it's also worth noting - the site is a paid service and the "free" option only lets you look at the last 3 years' grading.

In that regard they have us ranked 12th...with a 50% "hit rate," 8% "star rate," and just as many "starters" as "busts" at 33% for both.

Moreover the round by round breakdown is interesting (again, keep in mind, last three years)...
Round 1: F
Round 2: D
Round 3: A
Round 4: F
Round 5: D
Round 6: A
Round 7: B

That Round 4 grade is **** IMO

Barryn Sorrell, Evan Williams, Colby Wooden

I'm sorry but that has to be the wrong team they're grading.

 

[Magooch]

That Round 4 grade is **** IMO

Barryn Sorrell, Evan Williams, Colby Wooden

I'm sorry but that has to be the wrong team they're grading.

Yeah I'd be interested to see what exactly goes into their grading/algorithm/whatever. Because by that "ranking" as far as I can tell they have Colby Wooden as the single worst "positional performance" grade of ANY player we have drafted in the last three years lol

But they also have Wooden classified as "DE" and LVN as "DL" soooo who knows

Anyways just for fun here is where GB ranks "round by round" over the past three years:
Rd 1: 30th
Rd 2: 7th
Rd 3: 2nd (So much for the Gute 3rd Rd curse....I guess they are really high on Kraft lol)
Rd 4: 18th
Rd 5: 7th
Rd 6: 8th
Rd 7: 5th

 

[Heyjoe4]

That Round 4 grade is **** IMO

Barryn Sorrell, Evan Williams, Colby Wooden

I'm sorry but that has to be the wrong team they're grading.

Agreed and it calls the entire grading results into question. Bakhtiari was another round 4 pick, and I didn't realize Williams was a 4th. I thought he was a third rounder.

Gluten seems to be much better in rounds 4 through 7. Maybe it's because expectations are irrationally high for the early rounds. That's why Gluten, armed with a lot of picks, has consistently found good players on day 3.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Agreed and it calls the entire grading results into question. Bakhtiari was another round 4 pick, and I didn't realize Williams was a 4th. I thought he was a third rounder.

Gluten seems to be much better in rounds 4 through 7. Maybe it's because expectations are irrationally high for the early rounds. That's why Gluten, armed with a lot of picks, has consistently found good players on day 3.

I think Gute is much better in rounds 4-7 because he changes his draft philosophy. In those rounds, its closer to BPA. I think he goes fishing too often in round 1 basing his pick on players that are often labeled as projects because they are great athletes but had unimpressive production.

Round 2 has some disappointments but is still impressive. Round 3 is a head scratcher. I thought Deguara was a sixth round talent and he ended up playing like a free agent. Kraft and Ryhan were good picks. Perhaps Gute reaches in round 1 and then compensates in round 2 with something closer to BPA at a position of need.

As I've mentioned before, the lower rounds have been excellent and have saved his job because he's failed too often to land difference makers in round 1. Overall, Gute is still a better than average GM at drafting talent.

 

[rmontro]

Overall, Gute is still a better than average GM at drafting talent.

Well, we've been in the upper half of the league, so that statement is likely true.

 

[OldSchool101]

The one thing I will be critical on is RD3. Kraft (A) is really the only great selection. Sean Rhyan (C+) is about average for a RD3. Savion too early

Hopper D+
Lloyd F
Amari D
Deguara C-
Sternberger D+
Burks D+
all underperformed to draft capital imo

That RD3 imo is our worst overall probably graded a true D+ and only because of Kraft pulled it up off the floor.

 

[OldSchool101]

RD2 is much better.

Belton too early imo

Bullard B+
Cooper A-
Reed B+
Watson B
Musgrave D+
Myers C
AJ Dillon B-
Elgton B
Josh Jackson D-

 

[OldSchool101]

RD4
Sorrell too early

J’mon Moore F
Royce C
Romeo B+
Tom A
Wooden C+
Williams B

 

[OldSchool101]

RD1
Golden too early

Morgan C/C+ (real time)
Van Ness C
Wyatt B+
Quay B
Stokes C-
Love A-
Gary B/B+
Savage D+ player
(gained in trade back RD3 so “C”)
Alexander A-

 

[Pkrjones]

RD2 is much better.

Belton too early imo

Bullard B+
Cooper A-
Reed B+
Watson B
Musgrave D+
Myers C
AJ Dillon B-
Elgton B
Josh Jackson D-

Damn, you're a REALLY tough grader... glad I never had you as a teacher.
Myers was a 4 yr above average starting OC currently starting for the Jets on a $5.5mil/yr deal. C Grade? At least B-, closer to B.
Jenkins was a 7 yr starter wherever needed on the OL, who signed a 2nd contract averaging $24mil/yr. B Grade? A to A-, imho.