Brian Gutenkunst FA and Draft Grades

[Heyjoe4]

As far as Brian drafting or grading him.He’s graded above average considering he’s only taken WR in RD1 once( 2025) thus far. Obviously it’s hard to judge a WR in a Rookie season so that’s on hold for now.
Brian has done good considering placement of draft picks at WR. He did miss on Jmon Moore RD4 and Amari Rodgers RD3, EQ etc. He did cancel those out with Reed, Watson, Doubs, MVS. It’s been a mixed bag with more success in RD2. After that it’s a coin toss.

At WR on a true C scale (not the feel good post draft scale the experts use) I’d put Gute in the B- area. Golden or Savion have a chance to draw that slightly up or down.

Kraft had a legit opportunity to erase some woes with RD3 at TE. Sternberger and Deguara were at most serviceable, but you can get serviceable in RD5. So those do not help Brian. Gotta have a better hit rate in RD3 maybe go more higher floor? Idk.

I think Gluten has done a good job with the draft. Yes, every year one guy in the league jumps out and wins OPOTY or DPOTY (these go beyond just best rookie) - but those are rare. I was disappointed Golden wasn't used more last year. But the Packers had a wealth of talent last year at WR, granted not all healthy at the same time......

I'd grade him at higher than B- with WRs, given the selection of Watson alone. Like Love, I wasn't a huge fan of the pick at the time, but both Love and Watson have elevated their respective games and are among the top 10 at their respective positions. (Watson may be lower due to recurring injuries. But when he returned last season his imact was immediate. And Love is closer to the top 5 rather than 5-10. And he keeps getting better.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Precisely, 100%

IMO, it's also important to note that Love's play has improved incrementally each year. He threw some season-ending INTs in 2024-2025 and 2023-2024, and that looks to have been corrected (in the playoffs and during the season). And I'm not suggesting the playoff losses were on him. There were a number of contributors to the playoff losses - esp at K......

That's important - that a player (hell, anyone) can make mistakes, learn from them, and do better.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Love has been one of the better deep ball passers in the league in his time as a starter. Big time air plays and deep balls he’s been opposite of what you’re describing by every metric I can find

I think if you watch a lot of his deep passes over 35 yards, they are frequently underthrown because he tends to throw them off his back foot. His receivers have bailed him out on some passes by making contested catches. Sometimes they were so wide open, it didn't matter if they came back for the ball. While I generally think stats are a big help in judging performance, in this case, I think they're misleading about his deep ball accuracy.

Love is a top 10 QB. I just think if he improves his deep throws and scrambles a little more to pick up first downs, he'll take the final step in his progression to become a top 5, HOF level QB.

Its all a moot point, however, if he's limited to 25 attempts per game. The game needs to go through his right arm.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think if you watch a lot of his deep passes over 35 yards, they are frequently underthrown because he tends to throw them off his back foot. His receivers have bailed him out on some passes by making contested catches. Sometimes they were so wide open, it didn't matter if they came back for the ball. While I generally think stats are a big help in judging performance, in this case, I think they're misleading about his deep ball accuracy.

Love is a top 10 QB. I just think if he improves his deep throws and scrambles a little more to pick up first downs, he'll take the final step in his progression to become a top 5, HOF level QB.

Its all a moot point, however, if he's limited to 25 attempts per game. The game needs to go through his right arm.

I will agree with the main point. He is very close to becoming conversation fit Top 5 QB. There’s still like 5 to 7 QB’s each year that outperform him. Being let’s say the #8 best QB etc.. is a remarkable achievement. Particularly coming from a lesser Conference.

Loves most impressive feature is he really reduced his TD:INT ratio. That was his biggest hurdle. I’m ok if he’s letting it loose some more though he needs to get back too tossing 30TD+

We tend to force the run but we are not a very good team running the ball as of late. I understand it if our Run Block was more in that Top 5 or Top 10 area. It’s not until it gets fixed we need more balance leaning Pass.

 

[milani]

I think if you watch a lot of his deep passes over 35 yards, they are frequently underthrown because he tends to throw them off his back foot. His receivers have bailed him out on some passes by making contested catches. Sometimes they were so wide open, it didn't matter if they came back for the ball. While I generally think stats are a big help in judging performance, in this case, I think they're misleading about his deep ball accuracy.

Love is a top 10 QB. I just think if he improves his deep throws and scrambles a little more to pick up first downs, he'll take the final step in his progression to become a top 5, HOF level QB.

Its all a moot point, however, if he's limited to 25 attempts per game. The game needs to go through his right arm.

It is always good when a QB does not have to make more than 25 passes a game. But it means you have a running game and YAC to win.

 

[Sanguine camper]

It is always good when a QB does not have to make more than 25 passes a game. But it means you have a running game and YAC to win.

The problem is that the Packers don't have a dominant running game but yet, they still have plenty of games where Love only gets around 25 attempts.

Love is very efficient with the football demonstrated by a good TD to interception ratio and a very good yards per attempt. Love's yards per attempt is either good or elite. You rarely see him under 7 yards and most of the time its near 8 and it gets crazy good when he approaches 10 yards per attempt.

Couple that with receivers like Watson, Reed and Kraft and there's a great incentive for Love to pass 35 times per game instead of 25.

 

[OldSchool101]

The problem is that the Packers don't have a dominant running game but yet, they still have plenty of games where Love only gets around 25 attempts.

Love is very efficient with the football demonstrated by a good TD to interception ratio and a very good yards per attempt. Love's yards per attempt is either good or elite. You rarely see him under 7 yards and most of the time its near 8 and it gets crazy good when he approaches 10 yards per attempt.

Couple that with receivers like Watson, Reed and Kraft and there's a great incentive for Love to pass 35 times per game instead of 25.

I’m thinking the increase doesn’t need to come in long throws. Rather getting the ball out quickly in the 5 yard range and getting a few YAC. It’s also an area where it protects Love. Put ourselves in a more manageable 2nd n 4 or
3rd n 4 etc.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think if you watch a lot of his deep passes over 35 yards, they are frequently underthrown because he tends to throw them off his back foot. His receivers have bailed him out on some passes by making contested catches. Sometimes they were so wide open, it didn't matter if they came back for the ball. While I generally think stats are a big help in judging performance, in this case, I think they're misleading about his deep ball accuracy.

Love is a top 10 QB. I just think if he improves his deep throws and scrambles a little more to pick up first downs, he'll take the final step in his progression to become a top 5, HOF level QB.

Its all a moot point, however, if he's limited to 25 attempts per game. The game needs to go through his right arm.

You make a lot of good points Sanguine. I'll add that the success of a QB throwing long ball completions is a function of his throwing and the ability of the WR to win against the CB or S. It's not just about the QB.

I don't remember the game, it was a few years ago. Jalen Hurts tossed a long ball to AJ Brown. It must have been a Sunday night game. The S had vacated that part of the field and Hurts noticed. Once the pass was complete, and Brown had to muscle his way into the reception, Collinsworth commented that Hurts threw it because he had confidence that "my guy can beat your guy', not because Hurts thought he could drop a dime.

Now Brown is an exceptional WR - big guy, great hands, great routes. I don't think Watson is in his league, but he's getting there. Anyway, some long throws are just an acceptable risk, dependent on the QB and who is doing the catching.

And FWIW, I think Love over-throws a receiver more often than under-throws. That's the side to err on. With speedy guys like Watson and Golden, I expect Love to put the ball long and high and give his guys the chance to run under or to the ball for a completion.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I will agree with the main point. He is very close to becoming conversation fit Top 5 QB. There’s still like 5 to 7 QB’s each year that outperform him. Being let’s say the #8 best QB etc.. is a remarkable achievement. Particularly coming from a lesser Conference.

Loves most impressive feature is he really reduced his TD:INT ratio. That was his biggest hurdle. I’m ok if he’s letting it loose some more though he needs to get back too tossing 30TD+

We tend to force the run but we are not a very good team running the ball as of late. I understand it if our Run Block was more in that Top 5 or Top 10 area. It’s not until it gets fixed we need more balance leaning Pass.

I think the single biggest improvement Love has made is not panicking, and remembering down, distance, and time. He threw an unnecessary pick to SF in the playoff loss two seasons ago, and there were other times when he just made truly bad decisions like trying to throw incomplete in the field of play.

But he's cleaned that up and is improving each year. I don't think he's "elite" - meaning top 5 QBs, but he's close enough.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The problem is that the Packers don't have a dominant running game but yet, they still have plenty of games where Love only gets around 25 attempts.

Love is very efficient with the football demonstrated by a good TD to interception ratio and a very good yards per attempt. Love's yards per attempt is either good or elite. You rarely see him under 7 yards and most of the time its near 8 and it gets crazy good when he approaches 10 yards per attempt.

Couple that with receivers like Watson, Reed and Kraft and there's a great incentive for Love to pass 35 times per game instead of 25.

Good observation. The running game, IMO, is in flux. Jacobs is wearing down, and given his running style, that's to be expected. Anyway the running game could use some consistency. Best case is that Jacobs returns and stays healthy and moves the ball as he has at his best.

RB #2 poisition is empty with Wilson leaving. 3rd time, or 3rd season is the charm (I hope) for Lloyd. I still expect Gluten will bring in a number of UDFAs at RB to make sure the #2 RB is dependable.

 

[milani]

You make a lot of good points Sanguine. I'll add that the success of a QB throwing long ball completions is a function of his throwing and the ability of the WR to win against the CB or S. It's not just about the QB.

I don't remember the game, it was a few years ago. Jalen Hurts tossed a long ball to AJ Brown. It must have been a Sunday night game. The S had vacated that part of the field and Hurts noticed. Once the pass was complete, and Brown had to muscle his way into the reception, Collinsworth commented that Hurts threw it because he had confidence that "my guy can beat your guy', not because Hurts thought he could drop a dime.

Now Brown is an exceptional WR - big guy, great hands, great routes. I don't think Watson is in his league, but he's getting there. Anyway, some long throws are just an acceptable risk, dependent on the QB and who is doing the catching.

And FWIW, I think Love over-throws a receiver more often than under-throws. That's the side to err on. With speedy guys like Watson and Golden, I expect Love to put the ball long and high and give his guys the chance to run under or to the ball for a completion.

The Packer receivers for a long time are built for RAC. They are not the long bomb out muscle type. We have not seen that since the Jordy Nelson days. If you want that kind of offense you won't get it with a Golden. You have to have a Randy Moss, AJ Green, Mike Evans, or Cooper Kupp receiving body. Watson may be the exception. But he is very injury prone. So I think we need to throw more in a traditional WC offense with what we have now. And occasionally you catch the defense in the box and can burn them with long play action.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packer receivers for a long time are built for RAC. They are not the long bomb out muscle type. We have not seen that since the Jordy Nelson days. If you want that kind of offense you won't get it with a Golden. You have to have a Randy Moss, AJ Green, Mike Evans, or Cooper Kupp receiving body. Watson may be the exception. But he is very injury prone. So I think we need to throw more in a traditional WC offense with what we have now. And occasionally you catch the defense in the box and can burn them with long play action.

Great point. I recall Jordy Nelson being very good at YAC. He could turn a 5-yard slant into a 70-yard TD with his speed. Golden and Watson are built for that kind of play.

And yeah, the long pass is less likely with the current group of WRs. I'd rather see WRs behaving like so-called "possession receivers" - that is, guys who can run short routes for 5-7 yards and keeo the sticks moving. That tires out the D and gives the Packers' D time for a breather.

 

[OldSchool101]

Great point. I recall Jordy Nelson being very good at YAC. He could turn a 5-yard slant into a 70-yard TD with his speed. Golden and Watson are built for that kind of play.

And yeah, the long pass is less likely with the current group of WRs. I'd rather see WRs behaving like so-called "possession receivers" - that is, guys who can run short routes for 5-7 yards and keeo the sticks moving. That tires out the D and gives the Packers' D time for a breather.

Sure. An underlying theme of football that gets overlooked is that it’s a game of Momentum. How many times have we seen an opponent who is losing on score but you can just tell it won’t be for long? That’s because they understand how momentum is key.

Many don’t know that Josh Jacobs yards in the passing game have diminished every year since 2022.
The only year Josh has less Targets than in GB is his Rookie season 2019. All this early hype from our staff about getting him more involved amounted to taking targets away. Here’s a guy who since 2024 has averaged 8.7 yards per catch and last year got a 1st down on 42% of his targets, but his usage is waning?

That’s not on Josh either. If I picked 3 Packers that were ideal to target in space, I’d put Kraft and Jacobs at the foremost on that list. Unfortunate Lloyd was also that guy in college but he can’t stay upright. There’s a substantial opportunity to use our RB’s more in the short Passing game. I’m not talking dangerous backwards laterals that allow our opponent to swarm for a TFL and steal momentum. I’m talking taking advantage of a player (Josh) who averages an 83% catch rate at 9 per. That’s not a guy

7.3 NET per target in Pass game.

 

[mradtke66]

Couple that with receivers like Watson, Reed and Kraft and there's a great incentive for Love to pass 35 times per game instead of 25.

While I like a 55/45 or 60/40 split in favor of the pass, I don't this was a play call decision necessarily.

On first down, if you come to the line and see both safeties deep, you have the numbers advantage. Check to the run play. Assuming 11 vs Nickel, you have 5 linemen and 1 TE against 4 linemen and 2 linebackers AND it'll be harder to throw against because everyone is (presumably) in coverage. Your running back should be able to fall down and pick up 3 yards before contact.

We struggled the whole year. Jenkins regressed and then we lost Kraft. The numbers advantage didn't help us, so teams could mostly align 2-deep (and rotate to 2, 3, 4 after the snap) and we couldn't run effectively. And throwing was harder. We were somewhat screwed.

Should we have thrown anyway? Probably not. Part of "the quarterback making better decisions" is identifying the look pre-snap and checking to the right play. This is not a full audibling. This is having two plays called in the huddle (typically one pass, one run) and calling "can" or "kill" to automatically flip to the backup call based on pre-snap read.

 

[gopkrs]

On first down, if you come to the line and see both safeties deep, you

That's when it really matters that you have a top notched O line imho. An average O line may still not get you anywhere. And of course play action is more effective.

 

[OldSchool101]

IMO, it's also important to note that Love's play has improved incrementally each year. He threw some season-ending INTs in 2024-2025 and 2023-2024, and that looks to have been corrected (in the playoffs and during the season).

This is where GB scored low in year to year ROSTER growth. Most growth should come from players in years 2,3,4,5 areas. Many Veterans went stagnant compared to 2024 or even lost ground due to injury or changes to position or responsibilities. Rasheed, Sean, Tom, Elgton, Jacobs, Musgrave, Cooper, Hobbs, Banks, Wooden, weren’t able to compensate for all the injury or changes. We saw a couple players lift off their plateau such as Kraft, but the cumulative imo was slight regression.
2026 needs to get better growth from individual players.

Couple that with receivers like Watson, Reed and Kraft and there's a great incentive for Love to pass 35 times per game instead of 25.

Yes. Normally the ideal mix is somewhere in between the fix and the actual. Apply it in increments and shoot for 5 more passes per game as a goal to start. My personal wish is to draft a RB with receiving chops. Then get both RB1-2 (plus maybe TE) slightly more involved in the short passing game. I said that end of 2024 and in postseason we fizzled in using the strength our RB and TE room entering playoffs.

Should we have thrown anyway? Probably not. Part of "the quarterback making better decisions" is identifying the look pre-snap and checking to the right play.

Yes that’s the macro. The micro in this is not making Run automatic. Use play action = must run shouldn’t be a given. That or opponents will use it to force us to play into their hand.

2 High Safeties shouldn’t prohibit us from a 5 yard pass and 6-7 yard gainer.

 

[Sanguine camper]

While I like a 55/45 or 60/40 split in favor of the pass, I don't this was a play call decision necessarily.

On first down, if you come to the line and see both safeties deep, you have the numbers advantage. Check to the run play. Assuming 11 vs Nickel, you have 5 linemen and 1 TE against 4 linemen and 2 linebackers AND it'll be harder to throw against because everyone is (presumably) in coverage. Your running back should be able to fall down and pick up 3 yards before contact.

We struggled the whole year. Jenkins regressed and then we lost Kraft. The numbers advantage didn't help us, so teams could mostly align 2-deep (and rotate to 2, 3, 4 after the snap) and we couldn't run effectively. And throwing was harder. We were somewhat screwed.

Should we have thrown anyway? Probably not. Part of "the quarterback making better decisions" is identifying the look pre-snap and checking to the right play. This is not a full audibling. This is having two plays called in the huddle (typically one pass, one run) and calling "can" or "kill" to automatically flip to the backup call based on pre-snap read.

The Packers went big last year on the offensive line to try and run teams out of the cover 2. It certainly didn't work. Without Kraft and Reed, throwing underneath and relying on YAC wasn't much of an option either. The combination of injuries and poorer play on the O line made it so no matter what Love audibled on the LOS, the Packers were frequently in a third and long situation. Hence the frequent 3 and outs down the stretch.

 

[mradtke66]

Yes that’s the macro. The micro in this is not making Run automatic. Use play action = must run shouldn’t be a given. That or opponents will use it to force us to play into their hand.

Game situations aside, because 2 minute drill and needing to throw is a real thing, but it really should pretty automatic. Partially its "taking what the defense gives you," partially it's imposing your will. The goal is to make the defense always wrong. If they play coverage, run. If they play run, throw.

And yes, play action can be a counter to this. At least sometimes.

2 High Safeties shouldn’t prohibit us from a 5 yard pass and 6-7 yard gainer.

But it can. If you have two deep safeties, the corners can press and take away 3 step drops. They are freed to be aggressive as they want because they have help behind them.

I keep beating this drum because it has reared its head ways: Defenses can take away anything, but they give up something else to do it. What we saw here is defenses taking away deep passes and making the job of cornerbacks easier. This SHOULD make it easier to run. We could not. Ergo, defense got to take something away for free.

 

[mradtke66]

That's when it really matters that you have a top notched O line imho. An average O line may still not get you anywhere. And of course play action is more effective.

Eh, I'd say an average O-Line should be able to get those 3-4 yards "for free" when the numbers are equal. 6 defenders vs. 6 blockers a 1 ball carrier is an immediate win for the offense. The top notched lines can succeed when the numbers are NOT in their favor.

 

[gopkrs]

Eh, I'd say an average O-Line should be able to get those 3-4 yards "for free" when the numbers are equal. 6 defenders vs. 6 blockers a 1 ball carrier is an immediate win for the offense. The top notched lines can succeed when the numbers are NOT in their favor.

Not worth arguing about but I don't agree. I think there are more variables involved. Just saying on the average doesn't cover it. Not sure there is such a thing as on the average.

 

[milani]

Great point. I recall Jordy Nelson being very good at YAC. He could turn a 5-yard slant into a 70-yard TD with his speed. Golden and Watson are built for that kind of play.

And yeah, the long pass is less likely with the current group of WRs. I'd rather see WRs behaving like so-called "possession receivers" - that is, guys who can run short routes for 5-7 yards and keeo the sticks moving. That tires out the D and gives the Packers' D time for a breather.

One good thing about MM was that he used his receivers differently according to their talents. He used Jennings as a tweener, one who could break long but also explode after a shorter catch. He used Jordy for long shots after play action to go up and fight for the ball as well as high percentage sideline patterns. Now, even though James Jones had the dropsies on easy catches the man could snatch the ball from one or two defenders on go routes. Randall Cobb was used coming out of the backfield or in the slot where he could get into space. Finley and Richard Rodgers were targets in the seam or in the flat both of which had good hands. And probably the most successful wide receiver for the longest time with both Rodgers and Favre had to be Donald Driver. He had a knack for getting open, he could go long, he could catch in a crowd, and he had sneaky acceleration that defenses did not always anticipate. Offense was not the issue with those teams.

 

[Heyjoe4]

One good thing about MM was that he used his receivers differently according to their talents. He used Jennings as a tweener, one who could break long but also explode after a shorter catch. He used Jordy for long shots after play action to go up and fight for the ball as well as high percentage sideline patterns. Now, even though James Jones had the dropsies on easy catches the man could snatch the ball from one or two defenders on go routes. Randall Cobb was used coming out of the backfield or in the slot where he could get into space. Finley and Richard Rodgers were targets in the seam or in the flat both of which had good hands. And probably the most successful wide receiver for the longest time with both Rodgers and Favre had to be Donald Driver. He had a knack for getting open, he could go long, he could catch in a crowd, and he had sneaky acceleration that defenses did not always anticipate. Offense was not the issue with those teams.

Good summary. And agreed, Driver was quietly one of the best WRs the Packers ever had. I don't remember him getting injured much. He was and still is in eceptionally good shape.

And he is certainly one of the most beloved WRs from the Packers. The whole state of WI loves the guy.

 

[OldSchool101]

One good thing about MM was that he used his receivers differently according to their talents. He used Jennings as a tweener, one who could break long but also explode after a shorter catch. He used Jordy for long shots after play action to go up and fight for the ball as well as high percentage sideline patterns. Now, even though James Jones had the dropsies on easy catches the man could snatch the ball from one or two defenders on go routes. Randall Cobb was used coming out of the backfield or in the slot where he could get into space. Finley and Richard Rodgers were targets in the seam or in the flat both of which had good hands. And probably the most successful wide receiver for the longest time with both Rodgers and Favre had to be Donald Driver. He had a knack for getting open, he could go long, he could catch in a crowd, and he had sneaky acceleration that defenses did not always anticipate. Offense was not the issue with those teams.

Pretty accurate recollection. I remember Jordy getting lots of back shoulder throws on the sideline.
Favre to Driver made the Quick Slant darn near impossible to defend

 

[milani]

Pretty accurate recollection. I remember Jordy getting lots of back shoulder throws on the sideline.
Favre to Driver made the Quick Slant darn near impossible to defend

Rodgers was spoiled with such a plethora of offensive talent, particularly in his first 10 years as a starter. And that includes the offensive line. But even with some defensive stars like Woodson, Matthews, Raji, Hawk, and Tramon the Packers were never able to put together a decent defense except for that one season. The contrast to what the New England teams did on both sides of the ball was what kept us out of other championships.

 

[OldSchool101]

Rodgers was spoiled with such a plethora of offensive talent, particularly in his first 10 years as a starter. And that includes the offensive line. But even with some defensive stars like Woodson, Matthews, Raji, Hawk, and Tramon the Packers were never able to put together a decent defense except for that one season. The contrast to what the New England teams did on both sides of the ball was what kept us out of other championships.

That was another point I was going to make. Rodgers inherited a really good
Roster. Not trying to diminish him as we all know he’s one of the best.

How do we think Love would fair with this 2009 lineup as a 2nd year Starter?

RB Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, Ahman Green

TE Donald Lee, Jermichael Finley

OT Chad Clifton, M Tauscher,
OG Darryn College, Josh Sitton
C Scott Wells

WR Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, Jordy Nelson

How many of GB’s starters today would be definitive upgrades over those players? I only see at most 3 players in today’s Offense that would win Starter roles over that group of 10 non QB’s. TE, RB, RT.