Belichick's decision - McCarthy wouldn't have the guts

[bfavre74]

NFLStatAnalysis: Belichick Unwittingly Emboldened the Geeks

I have long felt that coaches are too conservative on 4th Down. Here's an interesting article about how stat geek are defending Belichick's decision. I totally agree. A guy like McCarthy would never make that call because a) he's not smart enough and b) he's scared of losing his job.



I love the way the article closes out:
"The ability to store more and more data has allowed the average statistically minded fan to perform the analyses proving what they have long believed - but never had the data to prove.

The internet has provided a method to disseminate the message.

The Belichick discussion finally gives them a platform.

So. Game on. It's Microsoft Excel (or SAS, Minitab etc...) vs. old school thinking.

The empirically minded minority is getting a seat at the table. Will it change the way decisions are made in the NFL? Doubtful. But, the debates will certainly take on a new life."

 

[jofroh]

So true

 

[DILLIGAFF]

Bill was able to make that decision because he has no fear of losing his job. He can make that decision and fail 2 or 3 more times and still have a job.

 

[PackersRS]

It was a poor decision. If he would've punt, he would put Manning at least in his 30 yard, with less than 3 minutes to score. Don't care what the probabilities are of them converting the 4th, the probabilities of the Colts scoring from their 30 are way lower than them scoring from the Patriot's 30.

And I don't buy that their D was tired. Wasn't the Offense tired too? And they would have to drive at least 70 yards, not just 30. With less than 3 minutes.

Fact is, with that call, he essencially told his team that he thrust Brady and the Receiving Corps more than he thrust their running game, their ST players and their Defense.

The Bill Belichick that WON the SBs would've NEVER called that play. Just watch those SBs. He won them with a Kicker. That says a lot about taking stupid chances.

 

[3irty1]

manning was carving them up in the 4th. 30 yards or 70, they woulda got the td. If they converted the 4th down then the nails would be on the coffin. Its a tough choice, dont know if their is a correct call, only a "what-if"

 

[Ted's Zombie Army]

Statistically speaking, hefty head coaches with a pen stuck in the back of their hats, were significantly more likely to lose their jobs if the seat just above them got a little hot as well. This is caused by a constant law of rank structure summarized by the phrase, "**** rolls downhill."

 

[PackersRS]

manning was carving them up in the 4th. 30 yards or 70, they woulda got the td. If they converted the 4th down then the nails would be on the coffin. Its a tough choice, dont know if their is a correct call, only a "what-if"

He was. But still, he needs to have faith in his D. He just abandoned them with that move. If he had punted, the offense would've understanded. The D is being questioned, and he just slapped them in the face. A bad decision.

 

[Quientus]

It's a 50/50 situation ... In almost every instance (9/10) Brady would have nailed that pass and gotten the 2 yards ...

Hindsight is always 20/20, and *that* is the only reason that people are "blaming" Belichick now ... - Don't forget that Belichick is among those coaches who have the best 4th down conversion rates of all coaches in the league ...

There has been other examples where Belichick has gone for it on 4th down and gotten the first ... - Had the Patriots converted for a 1st down ... Everyone would be praising the Patriots now, and say how much of a gutsy genius Belichick was (and actually is ...) ...

Considering how the Colts had been playing up to that part ... It was the *right* decision at that time ... - It wouldn't have mattered if the Colts had gotten the ball back at their own 20 yard line ... The way Manning was willing and driving his team downfield in the 4th quarter, it wouldn't have made a slightest difference in my opinion ...

 

[PackersRS]

It's a 50/50 situation ... In almost every instance (9/10) Brady would have nailed that pass and gotten the 2 yards ...

Hindsight is always 20/20, and *that* is the only reason that people are "blaming" Belichick now ... - Don't forget that Belichick is among those coaches who have the best 4th down conversion rates of all coaches in the league ...

There has been other examples where Belichick has gone for it on 4th down and gotten the first ... - Had the Patriots converted for a 1st down ... Everyone would be praising the Patriots now, and say how much of a gutsy genius Belichick was (and actually is ...) ...

Considering how the Colts had been playing up to that part ... It was the *right* decision at that time ... - It wouldn't have mattered if the Colts had gotten the ball back at their own 20 yard line ... The way Manning was willing and driving his team downfield in the 4th quarter, it wouldn't have made a slightest difference in my opinion ...

I think most people would praise Brady for making the pass...

I think my point is, if it was 4th and 1, 4th and inches, they would have the run option, and then it would be another situation.

But it was FORTH AND TWO, a reasonable long distance, and it was in their own 28 yard...

 

[PackAttackUK]

It was a stupid call.

There are a lot of factors (well 2) that made it a stupid call.

The first one being the distance. As had been said, they had to gain a full 2 yards on 4th down to convert. And the second being it was on their own 28 yard line!

I don't care that Manning was carving them up in the 4th, you CANNOT say that had Manning been on his own 30, that he WOULD have ended up getting the TD anyway! Putting him on YOUR own 30 made the job a LOT easier for him.

Had he been on his own 30 yard line, then the D might've been able to get some adrenaline pumping and made a good stand. But they weren't allowed that chance because of his stupid decision to go for it on 4th and 2.

 

[Quientus]

It was a stupid call.

Hindsight is always 20/20 ... Had the Patriots held the Colts, had the Patriots gotten it, we wouldn't be having this discussion ...

There are a lot of factors (well 2) that made it a stupid call.

And there were ALOT of factors that actually made it a pretty good call also ...

The first one being the distance. As had been said, they had to gain a full 2 yards on 4th down to convert. And the second being it was on their own 28 yard line!

I don't care that Manning was carving them up in the 4th, you CANNOT say that had Manning been on his own 30, that he WOULD have ended up getting the TD anyway! Putting him on YOUR own 30 made the job a LOT easier for him.

On both drives for the Colts previously that resulted in a TD ... Both drives lasted about 2 minutes ... - The Colts had more than 2 minutes and a time out ... - That is practically an eternity for a QB like Manning ... Check the box score result to see how long those 2 drives were, in case you forgot ...

Had he been on his own 30 yard line, then the D might've been able to get some adrenaline pumping and made a good stand. But they weren't allowed that chance because of his stupid decision to go for it on 4th and 2.

You my friend, should clearly be an NFL coach, - I bet if you offered your service to the Packers, and you had been a coach ... Clearly the Packers would be 6-2 by now ...

My point being ... the way the game had developed during the second half and especially the 4th quarter ... the Patriots defense seemed they had run out of gas ... And the Colts were clearly having the upper hand ...

Again, for all intent and purposes, making *that* call at the time, seemed like the right call ... As is, the Patriots failed to convert and the Colts scored ...

But to call it a stupid call ... is just ludicrous and shows you probably didn't even watch the game ...

 

[Green_Bay_Packers]

I see now what the call is all about, Seems pointless on your own 30 why not punt and put the colts under pressure?

 

[Quientus]

I see now what the call is all about, Seems pointless on your own 30 why not punt and put the colts under pressure?

IF I hadn't seen the game, I would probably agree ... However, seeing how the Patriots' defense was practically run over the entire 4th quarter ... Seemed like the Patriots was out of gas so to speak ...

Both long drives from the Colts resulting in TD's previously took about 2 minutes or less ... - From *that* particular point of view, - All though it was a gamble, nevertheless, it was a 50/50 situation for Belichick ...

Those that say it was showing little confidence and not trusting his defense, *may* be right, however, at no time during the 4th quarter had the defense, prior to the decision actually given any reasons as to why all of a sudden, they would be able to stop the Colts ... - And another look at it ... could also be that the Patriots *could* have stopped the Colts anyway ... - Doesn't really matter it was at their own 29th yard line or not ... - IF the Patriots defense could have stopped the Colts, the end result might have resulted in a win anyway ... - As is ... they lost ...

On the other hand ... it could also be argued that Belichick put too much trust in Brady on that 4th and 2 call ... - In most circumstances, if people were to bet prior ... I think most (if they are honest) would bet that Brady would make that play ... (getting 2 yards on a pass) ...

 

[Hauschild]

This is why Big Bill wins Super Bowls. Going for it was proven to be a better statistical play.

The loss meant nothing to New England - they're in command of their division and if the Pats have to come back to play at Indy, Indy showed absolutely NO ability to stop the Pats.

 

[PackersRS]

This is why Big Bill wins Super Bowls. Going for it was proven to be a better statistical play.

The loss meant nothing to New England - they're in command of their division and if the Pats have to come back to play at Indy, Indy showed absolutely NO ability to stop the Pats.

The thing is, when he was winning SBs, he wasn't going for it. He only started playing this reckless in 2007, with the record setting offense. And he didn't win there.

 

[PackAttackUK]

I guess we'll have to agree to disagree then, as I still think it was a stupid call to make.

Edit: Oh, and for the record, I did see the game.

 

[thetrooper]

yeah it was dumb and risky.they were winning they should have punted and relied on their defense to hold them.maybe Bill lacked faith in his defense

 

[Quientus]

Click Here

And take a look at some statistics on how well the Patriots have been converting a 4th down and 2 or less ...

Since 2001 - on 4th Down with 2 yards or less - 76,4 %

Against the Colts (since the 2000 season) - on 4th Down with 2 yards or less - Gone for it on 4th down 16 times and been able to convert 12 times ...

If anyone is going to rail on that decision, atleast put it in context ...

 

[Hauschild]

The thing is, when he was winning SBs, he wasn't going for it. He only started playing this reckless in 2007, with the record setting offense. And he didn't win there.

I think what makes Bill shrewd is that he is impossible to put in a box - you can't finger him.

Also, I wouldn't call going for it "reckless" by any means. I think Bill has been around football long enough to know that if the opposing defense cannot stop your offense and your defense cannot stop the opposing offense, putting two-and-two together is not a difficult deduction.

Some guys stay within parameters which is sometimes "safer", but sometimes limiting. I prefer people that can think "on the run" and are flexible. This goes hand-in-hand with the ability for some coaches to make adjustments on the fly, while others have to wait an entire half or never adjust, kinda like Mac. I love coaches that don't limit themselves to conventional wisdom - they make decisions not based necessarily on a game plan, but within the context of the manner in which a game is unfolding.

Indy gave up, what, 500 yards to the Pats? The Pats gave up 450 to the Colts? I think the decision to go for it was perfectly reasonable, given how the game had unfolded up to that point.

I think the only issue was that the Pats had no time outs. Had the Pats had a few, while the spot probably wouldn't have been changed, the Pats could have had a minute to let Brady go to work.

But, what is the difference, really, with regards to THAT game and how it was being played - between the Colts having to drive 30 yards or 70? Lest we forget there would have been no way to determine WHERE the Colts would have started from, had the Pats punted. Too many factors to account for.

The same would hold true for my feelings for the Vikings. They continually allow opposing offenses to creep back into games. It has been happening now for 9 weeks, with or without Antoine Winfield. As a result, does it bother me when Chilly goes for it and Petersen gets stuffed? Not really - the play call bothers me (because Petersen routinely gets dropped for a loss when he runs up the gut - only when he breaks it outside does he get big yardage.), but not the fact that Chilly goes for it because he is playing percentages.

If the NFL average of 4th down conversion success is 60% and I have an offense Like Minny's or Indy's or New England's or New Orleans', then that figure has to be around 67% and I'll take those odds if my defense is suspect always or on any given Sunday.

 

[PackAttackUK]

I fully understand what you're saying regarding conversion rates and percentages etc, which made it a more reasonable call, BUT I still think it was a risky call to make.

Had I been a Pats fan, I'd have been livid that he didn't punt the ball away.

 

[Quientus]

The thing is, when he was winning SBs, he wasn't going for it. He only started playing this reckless in 2007, with the record setting offense. And he didn't win there.

In the 2004 AFC championship game against the Colts, Belichick made the decision to go for it on fourth-and-short from Patriots territory on the first drive of the game. The decision stood in defiance of football conventional wisdom. But the Patriots converted and marched down the field for a touchdown. Later, the decision to go for it was credited as having played a significant role in the Patriots reaching the Super Bowl. Belichick’s gutsy call — based on his embrace of the studies of economists — was deemed by the New York Times as an indication of his genius.

And there are numerous other occasions before 2004 as well ...

 

[Hauschild]

I fully understand what you're saying regarding conversion rates and percentages etc, which made it a more reasonable call, BUT I still think it was a risky call to make.

To me, Big Bill had his point proven when Indy scored the final touchdown. They did it in 4 plays, and two of those were runs which took 1.5 minutes off the clock. Does anybody really believe - with regards to the context in which the game had been unfolding up to the final Indy drive - that the Colts wouldn't have scored no matter where they ended up starting from??? 30, 40, 50, 60 yards - what's the difference???

 

[Quientus]

Recap, 4th Quarter:

1. New England Patriots at 15:00
2. 1-7-IND 7 (15:00) (Shotgun) 33-K.Faulk up the middle to IND 5 for 2 yards (55-C.Session).
3. 2-5-IND 5 (14:23) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-R.Moss for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WATCH HIGHLIGHT
4. 3-S.Gostkowski extra point is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson.
5. NE 31 IND 14 Plays: 2 Possession: 0:42

Indianapolis starts out at their own 21 yard line ...

1. Indianapolis Colts at 14:18
2. 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 71 yards from NE 30 to IND -1. 35-C.Simpson to IND 21 for 22 yards (22-T.Wheatley).
3. 1-10-IND 21 (14:13) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 44-D.Clark to IND 40 for 19 yards (30-B.McGowan).
4. 1-10-IND 40 (13:43) 18-P.Manning pass short right to 85-P.Garcon ran ob at NE 49 for 11 yards.
5. 1-10-NE 49 (13:23) 29-J.Addai left end to NE 40 for 9 yards (59-G.Guyton).
6. 2-1-NE 40 (12:52) 35-C.Simpson up the middle to NE 29 for 11 yards (51-J.Mayo, 59-G.Guyton).
7. 1-10-NE 29 (12:20) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 85-P.Garcon for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8. 3-M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
9. NE 31 IND 21 Plays: 5 Possession: 2:04

1. New England Patriots at 12:14
2. 1-P.McAfee kicks 78 yards from IND 30 to NE -8. 18-M.Slater, Touchback.
3. 1-10-NE 20 (12:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker to NE 32 for 12 yards (58-G.Brackett).
4. 1-10-NE 32 (11:37) 39-L.Maroney up the middle to NE 32 for no gain (58-G.Brackett).
5. 2-10-NE 32 (10:57) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-W.Welker to NE 37 for 5 yards (79-R.Brock, 33-M.Bullitt).
6. 3-5-NE 37 (10:10) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 81-R.Moss to NE 45 for 8 yards (23-T.Jennings).
7. 1-10-NE 45 (9:34) 39-L.Maroney left end to NE 47 for 2 yards (90-D.Muir, 98-R.Mathis).
8. 2-8-NE 47 (8:54) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady sacked at NE 42 for -5 yards (98-R.Mathis). FUMBLES (98-R.Mathis) [90-D.Muir], recovered by NE-67-D.Koppen at NE 45. 67-D.Koppen to NE 45 for no gain (58-G.Brackett). Minus 2 sack yards. WATCH HIGHLIGHT
9. 3-10-NE 45 (8:07) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 81-R.Moss (98-R.Mathis).
10. 4-10-NE 45 (8:02) 6-C.Hanson punts 37 yards to IND 18, Center-47-J.Ingram, fair catch by 20-T.Rushing.

1. Indianapolis Colts at 07:54
2. 1-10-IND 18 (7:54) 18-P.Manning pass deep left intended for 87-R.Wayne INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Wilhite at IND 48. 24-J.Wilhite ran ob at IND 31 for 17 yards. WATCH HIGHLIGHT

1. New England Patriots at 07:44
2. 1-10-IND 31 (7:44) 39-L.Maroney up the middle to IND 30 for 1 yard (33-M.Bullitt, 58-G.Brackett).
3. 2-9-IND 30 (7:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 9-I.Stanback to IND 22 for 8 yards (27-J.Lacey).
4. 3-1-IND 22 (6:28) 39-L.Maroney up the middle to IND 20 for 2 yards (98-R.Mathis, 50-P.Wheeler).
5. 1-10-IND 20 (5:49) (Run formation) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 81-R.Moss to IND 16 for 4 yards (27-J.Lacey).
6. 2-6-IND 16 (5:05) (Shotgun) 33-K.Faulk right tackle to IND 18 for -2 yards (41-A.Bethea).
7. 3-8-IND 18 (4:22) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 33-K.Faulk [93-D.Freeney].
8. 4-8-IND 18 (4:17) 3-S.Gostkowski 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ingram, Holder-6-C.Hanson. WATCH HIGHLIGHT
9. NE 34 IND 21 Plays: 7 Possession: 3:32

Indianapolis starts out at their own 21 yard line ... - again ...

1. Indianapolis Colts at 04:12
2. 3-S.Gostkowski kicks 68 yards from NE 30 to IND 2. 35-C.Simpson to IND 21 for 19 yards (38-B.Lockett, 58-P.Woods).
3. 1-10-IND 21 (4:07) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 29-J.Addai to IND 33 for 12 yards (28-D.Butler, 51-J.Mayo).
4. 1-10-IND 33 (3:50) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 17-A.Collie to IND 39 for 6 yards (28-D.Butler).
5. 2-4-IND 39 (3:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep left to 17-A.Collie to NE 44 for 17 yards (25-P.Chung).
6. 1-10-NE 44 (3:03) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete deep middle to 17-A.Collie. PENALTY on NE-28-D.Butler, Defensive Pass Interference, 31 yards, enforced at NE 44 - No Play.
7. 1-10-NE 13 (2:56) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short middle to 44-D.Clark to NE 4 for 9 yards (28-D.Butler) [91-M.Pryor].
8. 2-1-NE 4 (2:30) 18-P.Manning pass incomplete short left to 87-R.Wayne.
9. 3-1-NE 4 (2:27) 29-J.Addai right tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WATCH HIGHLIGHT
10. 3-M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
11. NE 34 IND 28 Plays: 6 Possession: 1:49

1. New England Patriots at 02:23
2. 1-P.McAfee kicks 70 yards from IND 30 to end zone, Touchback.
3. Timeout #2 by NE at 02:23.
4. 1-10-NE 20 (2:23) (Shotgun) 33-K.Faulk up the middle to NE 20 for no gain (79-R.Brock).
5. Timeout #1 by IND at 02:18.
6. 2-10-NE 20 (2:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 83-W.Welker to NE 28 for 8 yards (27-J.Lacey, 55-C.Session).
7. Timeout #2 by IND at 02:11.
8. 3-2-NE 28 (2:11) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete short right to 83-W.Welker (25-J.Powers).
9. Timeout #3 by NE at 02:08.
10. 4-2-NE 28 (2:08) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 33-K.Faulk to NE 29 for 1 yard (33-M.Bullitt). WATCH HIGHLIGHT

1. Indianapolis Colts at 02:00
2. 1-10-NE 29 (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne to NE 14 for 15 yards (24-J.Wilhite).
3. 1-10-NE 14 (1:20) 29-J.Addai up the middle to NE 1 for 13 yards (24-J.Wilhite).
4. 1-1-NE 1 36) 29-J.Addai left tackle to NE 1 for no gain (75-V.Wilfork, 92-R.Brace).
5. 2-1-NE 1 16) 18-P.Manning pass short left to 87-R.Wayne for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WATCH HIGHLIGHT
6. 3-M.Stover extra point is GOOD, Center-48-J.Snow, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
7. NE 34 IND 35 Plays: 4 Possession: 1:47

 

[PackersRS]

And there are numerous other occasions before 2004 as well ...

4th and SHORT. Not forth and 2. But your point is made. On that occasion. If you take a look at that SB, their first half, they were in the 9 yard of Panthers territory and tried the FG.

I know it's not the same situation, but I just think Bellichick trusted his D more back then than he does now, and that move was particularly bad, not just because it costed the game, but because it could've very well jeopardized his D confidence in him and in itself...

 

[Quientus]

4th and SHORT. Not forth and 2. But your point is made. On that occasion. If you take a look at that SB, their first half, they were in the 9 yard of Panthers territory and tried the FG.

I know it's not the same situation, but I just think Bellichick trusted his D more back then than he does now, and that move was particularly bad, not just because it costed the game, but because it could've very well jeopardized his D confidence in him and in itself...

Yes, fourth and short ... - But there has also been a play where it was fourth and 13 I think (another game, - read the article, the links are all in there ...) where Belichick went for it and the Patriots converted ...

If you look at the drives during the 4th quarter, BOTH of the Colts' (previous) TD drives was from their own 21 yard line and one took 2.04 minutes, the other took 1.49 minutes ...

Again, had the play been succesfull, we wouldn't be discussing this, but more how much of a genius Belichick was (and actually is ... - regardless if you like the man or not ... Belichick is probably *The* Best coach in the NFL by far during the last decade ...).

The Patriots' defense was being run over in the 4th quarter ... And given the success rate of 4th down conversions, Belichick actually made the right call ... - No doubt, if Patriots *had* punted and Manning had still driven the Colts' back to a TD, most likely, most of the posters and experts would have *blamed* Belichick for *NOT* going for it ...