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Assuming are defense is in the middle of the pack next year..

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by Brandon, Feb 13, 2012.

  1. Brandon

    Brandon Cheesehead

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    Does ANYONE touch us? Our offense is not going to change very much next year, I'm pretty confident of that. It's hard to imagine A-Rod having a better year, but the unit as a whole will probably put up similar numbers next year.

    If our defense goes from 32 to say 18 next year overall, how do you stop us? It seems the only real way to win against that type of game is to PRAY nerves take hold and players drop balls like as we saw in the playoff game, or match that same fire power.

    Thoughts?

    (topic should have been OUR, not ARE.. damn grammar)
     
  2. doc108

    doc108 Cheesehead

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    You would be a dang good team but I don't think you win the SB it is proven over and over that you must have a very good D in the playoffs to win. But for most of the season you would be unstoppable.
     
  3. Southpaw

    Southpaw Endorphin Junkie

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    Who knows. Regular Seasons Stats are rather irrelevant when you get into the post season. We had the number one scoring offense and couldn't do anything.

    I could care less what our regular season record is. As long as we play our best when we get into the playoffs
     
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  4. Forget Favre

    Forget Favre Cheesehead

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    Well, at least we know your not a pirate.
    Otherwise it would have been Arrrrrr defense.
     
  5. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    If the Packers defense gets back to around 16th in the league and can get off the field on 3rd down, they'd probably win a Super Bowl. If they went 15-1 with the second worse defense in the history of the NFL, an improvement to the middle of the pack should mean Super Bowl.

    The good thing about being dead less, you can only improve!
     
  6. fettpett

    fettpett Cheesehead

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    we need to peak at the right time, this year it was way to early and it showed in December/January.
     
  7. GWheels

    GWheels Cheesehead

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    I totally agree. The way the last few years went, it's how your playing in the last few weeks and carrying that momentum into the post season is what gets you far.
     
  8. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    No it's not proven, as this year's Super Bowl confirms. You simply need to show up on gameday and give yourself a chance, something the Packers offense didn't do. The Patriots had the 31st ranked defense this year and went to the Super Bowl, and this year's Super Bowl champion the New Jersey Giants had the 27th ranked defense in 2011.

    In fact, only three of the past 10 Super Bowl champions had a top 5 defense, although 7 were in the top 10. 3 fell in the bottom half. 4 if you include this years New Jersey Giants team:

    2010 Packers- 6th ranked defense
    2009 New Orleans- 25
    2008 Pissburgh- 1
    2007 Giants- 7
    2006 Colts- 21
    2005 Pissburg- 4
    2004 New England- 9
    2003 New England- 7
    2002 Tampa Bay- 1
    2001 New England- 24

    Having a top defense definitely doesn't hurt your cause, but it isn't a prerequisite. Your defense can be middle of the pack and still give you a very good chance to win a Super Bowl as long as you have an offense that can move the ball.
     
  9. Aaron rodgers is god

    Aaron rodgers is god Cheesehead

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    Yah but that defensive ranking is based off of total yards. Scoring defense should be the factor for defense ranking . Plus defensive rankings doesn't matter in the playoffs. It matters how the defense plays in those games. Of those defenses that were ranked 20th or higher. They played much better defense than those rankings. The superbowl this year. Patriots were playing much better defense than a 31 ranked defense would. Same goes for the Giants.
     
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  10. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    Right, and OUR defense played better in our playoff game too. They held the opposition to 0 first downs for an entire quarter, and kept the team in the game until that fluke of a hail mary TD. The points/yards allowed were due to drive killing drops and turnovers.
     
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  11. AaronShockley

    AaronShockley Cheesehead

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    We're all missing the point here. Defense can't pay 18th ranked and win the SB. It's not about us getting a little better on D. We went 15 and 1, so apparently the D wasn't killing us in the Regular Season, but when you get to the postseason your D has to perform. 18th Rank won't cut it. Unless we do a Giants and be ranked **** during the year and kill it in the postseason. You have to have a good defense to win it all, not just a mediocre or bad one, even with a good offense.
     
  12. ExpatPacker

    ExpatPacker Cheesehead

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    This all assumes that our offense will play at the same level next year. I'm not completely confident about that. There could be some drop off.
     
  13. AaronShockley

    AaronShockley Cheesehead

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    how could we not have drop off? Rodgers will be good because he is, but I'm thinking 4400-4700 and 35-38 TD's with 6-10 picks.
     
  14. Aaron rodgers is god

    Aaron rodgers is god Cheesehead

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    I agree. The offense was unlike itself. We led the league in turnover differential and we lost the game because of the offense. Give credit to the giants defense, but a lot of the mistakes the packers had were mental mistakes. None of the turnovers were big hits or well executed strips. They were normal tackles where the ball came out.
     
  15. Aaron rodgers is god

    Aaron rodgers is god Cheesehead

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    I don't think it is right to assume the offense will remain as a constant and say if we get better on defense we will be unstoppable. I understand your thoughts but lets be realistic. The offense was insane this year. It is safe to say that the offense will not be as efficient/explosive as it was this year. We have questions on who will be back next year. (Wells,Finley,DD,Clifton etc..) The coaching staff has been reworked. Plus A-Rodg may not be as spectacular as he was. I hope he will but we can't expect this type of play every year. We can expect very good years just not this great. Fact is we covered up a lot of problems with insanely good offensive play. To win a superbowl next year we need to be able to have a defense that is able to win games. What i mean by this is we need to have a defense to take over a game when the offense is struggling. Then we need to have the offense play close to as good as it did this year. We have the talent, the chemistry, the coaches, and the management. We just need to continue to mold this together and start the dynasty I feel we can be.
     
  16. ExpatPacker

    ExpatPacker Cheesehead

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    Exactly my point. Don't assume that the offense is going to be as productive next year and this year. That means we have to improve in other areas.

    I'm also not as confident as some that our defense is just one or two players away from being at it's 2010 level. It's not just that we are weak at ROLB and DE, we also had several players really drop off from their previous seasons. You can chalk that up to a bad pass rush but I don't think that tells the whole story. Tramon Williams and BJ Raji were no where near as good, and AJ Hawk, well we know about him. Assuming Nick Collins comes back that will help, but unlike some here, I think this defense has a long way to go to get anywhere close to being good again.
     
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  17. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    The Packers defense couldn't get off the field on 3rd down the entire game... Plus, are we forgetting the Hail Mary? As soon as Nicks game down with the ball, that game was over.
     
  18. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    Did you not see my post above?

    Giants, New Orleans, Colts and New England have all won the Super Bowl in recent years with a defense ranked in the 20's.

    Same as "The great running back debate of 2010," where we proved you don't need an elite running game to win a championship, you also don't need an elite defense. As long as it's serviceable, you'll be able to win games, provided you have a top offense, which brings me to my next point:

    To win championships, you need to be towards the top on one side of the ball or the other, but not both. With a top offense that can score almost at will, you only need a defense that can make a stop or two. With a poor offense where points are at a premium, you'll need a much better defense.
     
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  19. 13 Times Champs

    13 Times Champs Cheesehead

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    Some say we were middle of the pack in 2011. ;)
     
  20. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    Again.. 0 first downs yielded in the entire 3rd quarter. That means the defense kept NY to a 3 and out every single posession.

    And that hail mary was a fluke.
     
  21. SpartaChris

    SpartaChris Cheesehead

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    Right, and the end result was a 15-1 record, the top seed in the division and an offense that couldn't get out of their own way come playoff time.
     
  22. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Back to the OP's question, assuming no drop-off in offense and assuming that the defense in somewhere in the middle, we should be favorites to win the SB. However, as others have pointed out I think that the safest assumption is that the offense will not be as prolific versus the defense improving. I see our defense being ranked somewhere in the low 20s and our passing game staying in the top 5, but without a commitment to the running game, our offense will be top 10 unless Rodgers plays lights out again. I wouldn't bet money on that though.
     
  23. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    My thought is you are operating under a faulty premise.


    As I posted in another thread, since Aaron Rodgers took over, the Packers have averaged 5th in the league in scoring at 28.6 ppg. Except for injuries I expect them to finish next season at least at that level.

    BTW, right now I believe the Packers are just behind the Patriots as favorites to win the next Super Bowl.

     
  24. Aaron rodgers is god

    Aaron rodgers is god Cheesehead

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    the defense definitely did not help us out; however, the offense had 4 turnovers and a tremendous amount of calls given to them(Jennings fumble, roughing the passer). The offense played terrible that game and were the reason why we lost. We either won the game or lost the game all season by our offenses performance.
     
  25. fettpett

    fettpett Cheesehead

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    Patriots are in no way the favorites to win it all next year, they have way too many holes to fill, 20!! players that are FA's for them, including Welker.

    Packers are 6-1 favorites
     

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