All the draft complaining...let's look over the past 10 seasons...

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HardRightEdge

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Once again, You wouldn’t distribute the remaining caries to the four backs because Ervin isn’t in the equation. He’s a special teams guy with an occasional “gadget play.” Furthermore, It’s not just the caries. It’s all snaps. Someone needs to be in there for play action, blocking, receiving and I have no doubt that we’ll be running a lot of two back sets. Why roster another back for that when 2 backs did it last year? Because the RB room is a strength in 2020. Do you think the 49ers would have done it if their backs were Mostart, Breida, and Dexter Williams? Of course not. The end goal is to have fresh legs for the playoffs.

I’ll have to look up the Bills documentary because I would love to see it. I have no doubt that they were more equals than mentor and protege halfway thru but he was given a foundation weather is was from Bill or another coach early in his career. He’s had many years to add to it and build his own legacy. MLF happens to be a product of the Shanahan coaching tree and it’s pretty apparent this offense is headed in that direction.
You didn't answer the question of how many carries you would expect Williams and Dillon to get with Jones as the front man. You don't draft RBs in the 2nd. round to occasionally block or catch. Your scenario has both Williams and Dillon underutilized if Dillon is all that. If Dillon is not all that, needs some time to develop, and sits on the inactive list for the opening day, that is not inconsistent with my thesis.

You are so certain that Ervin would not be an emergency #3, yet LaFleur stated he wanted to get him more involved in the offense. Coming in for week 13 would not have offered much time to work on that. If there's any traning camp to speak of, you might want to reconsider. Of course all these discussion, not just this but the whole forum, is from a default position of some reasonable amount of training camp and preseason. If it comes down to a week of cap and a preaseason game or two, or worse having regular season games cancelled, all bets are off. Clarity on how lost revenue impacts 2021 cap could upend all kinds of considerations.

Back at the beginning of these Jones discussion I floated the idea of him playing slot receiver on a semi-regular basis. That is a scenario that opens up the idea of 4 RBs on game day with Jones taking reduced carries. It's an idea to kick around but it is not really plausible. If that's what you meant about "two running backs on the field", then you have this implausible scenario in your favor. If you mean something like Jones and Dillon in the backfield, that ain't happening anymore than Jones and Williams. I joked earlier about running the Power Sweep, wishbone or full house. Here's another possibilty: the Four Horsemen. Wait, scratch that, pretty sure that would be illegal motion.

While some actually projected Dillon as a lower round fullback, he ain't that now. Deguara is the only other guy you're going to see as a second guy in the backfield.

I think there's some good news. There has been some concern that Dillion didn't do much receiving in college (and probably not much pass blocking either). In the highlight tapes I see a guy who looks fluid routing out of the backfield and a natural catcher of the football. He's got to take the proper release angles, though, or the QB will miss him and he'll get the stink eye. ;)

As for your question that I bolded, why indeed? My thesis is not that you're rostering another back, you're replacing Williams if Dillon comes out of the box the way the Packers expect given his draft position.ng
 
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HardRightEdge

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Agility might be a concern but I think he has above average vision. The goal is to get our backs into space and force defenders to make open field tackles. Like Henry, Dillon will be a load to take down and has plenty of speed to break long runs. I’m excited to see him in action.
I'm interested to see Dillion in action. I'll reserve excitement for if and when I see something exciting.
 

Fat Dogs

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You didn't answer the question of how many carries you would expect Williams and Dillon to get with Jones as the front man. You don't draft RBs in the 2nd. round to occasionally block or catch. Your scenario has both Williams and Dillon underutilized if Dillon is all that. If Dillon is not all that, needs some time to develop, and sits on the inactive list for the opening day, that is not inconsistent with my thesis.

You are so certain that Ervin would not be an emergency #3, yet LaFleur stated he wanted to get him more involved in the offense. Coming in for week 13 would not have offered much time to work on that. If there's any traning camp to speak of, you might want to reconsider. Of course all these discussion, not just this but the whole forum, is from a default position of some reasonable amount of training camp and preseason. If it comes down to a week of cap and a preaseason game or two, or worse having regular season games cancelled, all bets are off. Clarity on how lost revenue impacts 2021 cap could upend all kinds of considerations.

Back at the beginning of these Jones discussion I floated the idea of him playing slot receiver on a semi-regular basis. That is a scenario that opens up the idea of 4 RBs on game day with Jones taking reduced carries. It's an idea to kick around but it is not really plausible. If that's what you meant about "two running backs on the field", then you have this implausible scenario in your favor. If you mean something like Jones and Dillon in the backfield, that ain't happening anymore than Jones and Williams. I joked earlier about running the Power Sweep, wishbone or full house. Here's another possibilty: the Four Horsemen. Wait, scratch that, pretty sure that would be illegal motion.

While some actually projected Dillon as a lower round fullback, he ain't that now. Deguara is the only other guy you're going to see as a second guy in the backfield.

I think there's some good news. There has been some concern that Dillion didn't do much receiving in college (and probably not much pass blocking either). In the highlight tapes I see a guy who looks fluid routing out of the backfield and a natural catcher of the football. He's got to take the proper release angles, though, or the QB will miss him and he'll get the stink eye. ;)

As for your question that I bolded, why indeed? My thesis is not that you're rostering another back, you're replacing Williams if Dillon comes out of the box the way the Packers expect given his draft position.ng


I’m not certain of anything. I just think that a Dillon/Williams backfield is just as likely as a Jones/Dillon combo in 2021 so a lot is up in the air. Working all three into the mix this year isn’t a bad thing. We had 355 RB carries last season and we didn’t exactly blow the doors off teams. We lost three games but won nine by only one possession or fewer. I can easily see us having more opportunities to run out the clock in the second year of this offense so let’s bump it up to an even 400 to distribute. Jones is our best back but 236 carries is a little much for a back with durability issues his first 2 years in the league. You might argue that he’s our best player and should get more touches but he’s not a 220 lb back like most of these guys that carry the ball 200+. Decreasing his workload will only make him more explosive and save wear and tear on his body. Maybe they knock a few carries a game off and put him at 190. I think Dillon gets the 2nd most carries because Williams will be used more in the passing game. Maybe he gets around 130. That leaves 80 for Williams. Yes, that’s only 5 carries a game but he’ll also contribute 3 catches and will pass protect. These are generic guesses because I fully expect MLF to go with the hot hand. Keeping all 3 gives us a great insurance policy for injury. Ervin will be good for an occasional jet sweep or end around but nothing significant other than special teams IMO. Maybe your right and he will be the #3 emergency game day back but that’s no reason to get rid of a solid RB on a rookie deal. Worse case scenario, we keep him but don’t suit him up.

Jones should get plenty of looks from the slot while Dillon or Williams is in the backfield. Why not? He’s a miss match nightmare for any D. I also don’t see Dillon as a fullback and agree that Deguara will be the lead blocker. Jones being a FA complicates our backfield situation. It’s anyone’s guess how it all plays out.
 

Sunshinepacker

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Jones is our best back but 236 carries is a little much for a back with durability issues his first 2 years in the league. You might argue that he’s our best player and should get more touches but he’s not a 220 lb back like most of these guys that carry the ball 200+. Decreasing his workload will only make him more explosive and save wear and tear on his body. Maybe they knock a few carries a game off and put him at 190.

Aaron Jones was 15th last year in rush attempts, behind the following players who are all listed at 215lbs or less: McCaffrey, Cook, Mack, and Michel. Jones only had 12 more carries than Lindsay, who only weighs 190 lbs.

I'm sorry, but nobody is going to convince me that 12 extra pounds is the difference when being tackled by guys that are 280+ pounds. Now, that being said, I'm fine with Jones having 230 carries so long as he has 48+ receptions; I just don't get this obsession with 12 extra pounds. I'd prefer a guy like McCaffrey to a guy like Henry because being an elite receiver as a RB is more valuable than being an elite runner (so long as he's an average runner).
 

Fat Dogs

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Aaron Jones was 15th last year in rush attempts, behind the following players who are all listed at 215lbs or less: McCaffrey, Cook, Mack, and Michel. Jones only had 12 more carries than Lindsay, who only weighs 190 lbs.

I'm sorry, but nobody is going to convince me that 12 extra pounds is the difference when being tackled by guys that are 280+ pounds. Now, that being said, I'm fine with Jones having 230 carries so long as he has 48+ receptions; I just don't get this obsession with 12 extra pounds. I'd prefer a guy like McCaffrey to a guy like Henry because being an elite receiver as a RB is more valuable than being an elite runner (so long as he's an average runner).


All of the players you listed with more carries weigh more except for McCaffrey (205 lbs and a freak of nature.) The average weight for an NFL running back is 215 lb. Jones weighs 207 lb and has durability issues. 8 Lb under the average may seem ticky tacky but here’s how the top of that list looks.

Henry 247 lb
Chubb 227 lb
McCaffrey 205lb (obvious exception)
Elliot 228 lb
Carson 222 lb
Fournette 228 lb
Jacobs 220 lb
Mixon 220 lb

These 8 players had the most rush attempts in 2019 and that’s just the regular season. A rigorous playoff run might have added more. I’ll throw out Henry for obvious reasons but Jones is 13 Lb’s lighter than the lightest player on that list and 20 lbs lighter than the chubbs, Elliots and fournettes. How can this not make a difference? Some guys are built to take heavier loads.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I’m not certain of anything. I just think that a Dillon/Williams backfield is just as likely as a Jones/Dillon combo in 2021 so a lot is up in the air. Working all three into the mix this year isn’t a bad thing. We had 355 RB carries last season and we didn’t exactly blow the doors off teams. We lost three games but won nine by only one possession or fewer. I can easily see us having more opportunities to run out the clock in the second year of this offense so let’s bump it up to an even 400 to distribute. Jones is our best back but 236 carries is a little much for a back with durability issues his first 2 years in the league. You might argue that he’s our best player and should get more touches but he’s not a 220 lb back like most of these guys that carry the ball 200+. Decreasing his workload will only make him more explosive and save wear and tear on his body. Maybe they knock a few carries a game off and put him at 190. I think Dillon gets the 2nd most carries because Williams will be used more in the passing game. Maybe he gets around 130. That leaves 80 for Williams. Yes, that’s only 5 carries a game but he’ll also contribute 3 catches and will pass protect. These are generic guesses because I fully expect MLF to go with the hot hand. Keeping all 3 gives us a great insurance policy for injury. Ervin will be good for an occasional jet sweep or end around but nothing significant other than special teams IMO. Maybe your right and he will be the #3 emergency game day back but that’s no reason to get rid of a solid RB on a rookie deal. Worse case scenario, we keep him but don’t suit him up.

Jones should get plenty of looks from the slot while Dillon or Williams is in the backfield. Why not? He’s a miss match nightmare for any D. I also don’t see Dillon as a fullback and agree that Deguara will be the lead blocker. Jones being a FA complicates our backfield situation. It’s anyone’s guess how it all plays out.
Jones missed four games in year 1, two games due to injury in year two (the other two were a suspension) and none last year. I don't think he's any more of an injury risk in year 4 than any other running back.

But lets say you're right. Lets say Jones gets 190 carries and a mess of snaps out of the slot because Dillion plays like a 2nd. round RB coming out of the shoot. And lets say that approach is successful, with Jones getting his 1,300 - 1,500 yds from scrimmage with a little more tilt toward the passing game.

Then your Jones comparable would not be Ekeler, it would be Kamara, and in fact it already is. Kamara's 2019 season was 171 carries, 797 yads, 81 catches, 533 yards, 1330 total scrimage yards, 6 total TDs. Jones had the more productive season. The only reason Kamara got a Pro Bowl nod while Jones did not is Kamara's superior body of work over three years. That kind of thing happens a lot.

Then, age, size, position, role in the offense and value to the offense make for an especially uncanny Kamara comparable regardless of whether Jones gets his yards and touches tilting one way or the other toward run or pass. The body of work does not come much into play in that contract comparison since future contracts are about projections, and Jones 2019 season brings him up to par with Kamara on that count. You can bet your bottom dollar Jones' agent is making this argument.

Now, if you accept that premise, which you should, consider the following contract projection for Kamara from a New Orleans writer.

"A sensible deal for Kamara (from the Saints’ perspective) could look like a three-year, $37 million contract with $22.57 million in guarantees. That would pay out an average salary of $12.3 million per year (raising his 2020 pay from where it stands now, at just over $2 million)."

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/202...ion-christian-mccaffrey-derrick-henry-salary/

It's not explict, but it sounds like the writer is projecting a re-write of the upcoming 4th. year of Kamara's rookie contract taking him out through his 6th. year though he doesn't explain how that would work with NO's limited cap space. While those numbers tilt toward "just pay the man" in my view, this writer isn't sure Kamara would even accept it. Then again, crazy Houston took on David Johnson for a two year cap cost of $20 mil while giving up Hopkins in exchange for a 2nd. round pick as part of the deal. Even the crazy sh*t bends the salary curve.
 
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Sunshinepacker

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All of the players you listed with more carries weigh more except for McCaffrey (205 lbs and a freak of nature.) The average weight for an NFL running back is 215 lb. Jones weighs 207 lb and has durability issues. 8 Lb under the average may seem ticky tacky but here’s how the top of that list looks.

Henry 247 lb
Chubb 227 lb
McCaffrey 205lb (obvious exception)
Elliot 228 lb
Carson 222 lb
Fournette 228 lb
Jacobs 220 lb
Mixon 220 lb

These 8 players had the most rush attempts in 2019 and that’s just the regular season. A rigorous playoff run might have added more. I’ll throw out Henry for obvious reasons but Jones is 13 Lb’s lighter than the lightest player on that list and 20 lbs lighter than the chubbs, Elliots and fournettes. How can this not make a difference? Some guys are built to take heavier loads.

Yes, the guys I listed weigh at most 7lbs more. Are we really going down the road of claiming that an increase of 3.3% in body weight is the difference in carrying the ball an extra 3 times a game? I mean, when was the last time someone said Melvin Gordon wasn't capable of being a durable RB? He's a whopping 7lbs heavier than Jones. The theory that Jones has durability issues kind of got blown out of the water when he played all 16 games last year and touched the ball 285 times last year (10th in the NFL).

My main point is, I would much rather have the RB that is an elite receiver and average runner over the elite runner and average receiver because the elite receiver is going to force the defense to play nickel or dime while the average receiver won't. That elite receiving RB doesn't need to be 230+lbs because, hopefully, more than 20% of his touches will be in the receiving game where he's being tackled by a safety or corner and not having refrigerators fall on him.
 

Fat Dogs

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Yes, the guys I listed weigh at most 7lbs more. Are we really going down the road of claiming that an increase of 3.3% in body weight is the difference in carrying the ball an extra 3 times a game? I mean, when was the last time someone said Melvin Gordon wasn't capable of being a durable RB? He's a whopping 7lbs heavier than Jones. The theory that Jones has durability issues kind of got blown out of the water when he played all 16 games last year and touched the ball 285 times last year (10th in the NFL).

My main point is, I would much rather have the RB that is an elite receiver and average runner over the elite runner and average receiver because the elite receiver is going to force the defense to play nickel or dime while the average receiver won't. That elite receiving RB doesn't need to be 230+lbs because, hopefully, more than 20% of his touches will be in the receiving game where he's being tackled by a safety or corner and not having refrigerators fall on him.


Did you just use Melvin Gordon as an example of durability? Yes, Jones played 16 games for the first time but it surely doesn’t mean these issues are now “blown out of the water.” It’s simple math. A guy that carries the ball 8 times a game has a greater chance to get injured than one that carries the ball 4 times. Bigger guys are more capable of handling greater work loads. Jones had more carries last season but his yards per attempt dropped considerably from his first two seasons. I’m saying the same thing that you are. Give Jones less carries and give him more opportunities in the passing game.

I’m assuming that you don’t lift weights. 7 lbs of muscle might seem minuscule but these are world class athletes that are packed with muscle and have low body fat percentages. I assure you that it would be way easier for an average joe to lose 30 lbs than it would be for a frame like Jones to add an extra 7 lbs of muscle.
 

Sunshinepacker

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Did you just use Melvin Gordon as an example of durability? Yes, Jones played 16 games for the first time but it surely doesn’t mean these issues are now “blown out of the water.” It’s simple math. A guy that carries the ball 8 times a game has a greater chance to get injured than one that carries the ball 4 times. Bigger guys are more capable of handling greater work loads. Jones had more carries last season but his yards per attempt dropped considerably from his first two seasons. I’m saying the same thing that you are. Give Jones less carries and give him more opportunities in the passing game.

I’m assuming that you don’t lift weights. 7 lbs of muscle might seem minuscule but these are world class athletes that are packed with muscle and have low body fat percentages. I assure you that it would be way easier for an average joe to lose 30 lbs than it would be for a frame like Jones to add an extra 7 lbs of muscle.

At no point did I venture into the realm of body building. I simply said that the difference between a 280 lb defender landing on you when you weigh 208lbs vs 215lbs isn't that much. I get it though, you think a RB can't be a three-down guy unless he hits a specific weight (unless that guy is one of the guys that weighs less and does so anyway). I disagree. Luckily for me, last year happened (also, a RB missing SIX games in three seasons isn't an injury-prone player).
 

Fat Dogs

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Jones missed four games in year 1, two games due to injury in year two (the other two were a suspension) and none last year. I don't think he's any more of an injury risk in year 4 than any other running back.

But lets say you're right. Lets say Jones gets 190 carries and a mess of snaps out of the slot because Dillion plays like a 2nd. round RB coming out of the shoot. And lets say that approach is successful, with Jones getting his 1,300 - 1,500 yds from scrimmage with a little more tilt toward the passing game.

Then your Jones comparable would not be Ekeler, it would be Kamara, and in fact it already is. Kamara's 2019 season was 171 carries, 797 yads, 81 catches, 533 yards, 1330 total scrimage yards, 6 total TDs. Jones had the more productive season. The only reason Kamara got a Pro Bowl nod while Jones did not is Kamara's superior body of work over three years. That kind of thing happens a lot.

Then, age, size, position, role in the offense and value to the offense make for an especially uncanny Kamara comparable regardless of whether Jones gets his yards and touches tilting one way or the other toward run or pass. The body of work does not come much into play in that contract comparison since future contracts are about projections, and Jones 2019 season brings him up to par with Kamara on that count. You can bet your bottom dollar Jones' agent is making this argument.

Now, if you accept that premise, which you should, consider the following contract projection for Kamara from a New Orleans writer.

"A sensible deal for Kamara (from the Saints’ perspective) could look like a three-year, $37 million contract with $22.57 million in guarantees. That would pay out an average salary of $12.3 million per year (raising his 2020 pay from where it stands now, at just over $2 million)."

https://saintswire.usatoday.com/202...ion-christian-mccaffrey-derrick-henry-salary/

It's not explict, but it sounds like the writer is projecting a re-write of the upcoming 4th. year of Kamara's rookie contract taking him out through his 6th. year though he doesn't explain how that would work with NO's limited cap space. While those numbers tilt toward "just pay the man" in my view, this writer isn't sure Kamara would even accept it. Then again, crazy Houston took on David Johnson for a two year cap cost of $20 mil while giving up Hopkins in exchange for a 2nd. round pick as part of the deal. Even the crazy sh*t bends the salary curve.


Great comparison. Kamara has caught 81 balls a year since he’s been in the league. Can you imagine what our offense would look like if we added that dimension. Jones will be hard to re-sign if this does happen unless he takes a hometown discount. The money these backs are commanding is absurd. I hope Jones resigns but 12 mil a year won’t happen.
 

Fat Dogs

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At no point did I venture into the realm of body building. I simply said that the difference between a 280 lb defender landing on you when you weigh 208lbs vs 215lbs isn't that much. I get it though, you think a RB can't be a three-down guy unless he hits a specific weight (unless that guy is one of the guys that weighs less and does so anyway). I disagree. Luckily for me, last year happened (also, a RB missing SIX games in three seasons isn't an injury-prone player).


Ha ha sorry that was the personal trainer coming out. Jones has more than proven that he can be a 3 down back so that’s not what I’m saying. It is just not necessary. Why run the guy into the ground and increase the odds of an injury when you don’t have to. You said that you’d prefer a back that was an elite receiver. We have that in jones. Dillion and Williams will allow Jones to get a few less carries and extra work in the slot.
 

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That’s what you took from that Captain? MLF wants to run the ball. it’s been said that carrying more than 2 RB’s (excluding specialists aka emergency #3) is a luxury but I’d argue that it is a strategy for teams that want to run the ball. Williams isn’t expensive and has proven to be an asset. Cutting him is out of the question and trading him for scraps just to make room to roster a 5th ILB or 6th edge rusher doesn’t make sense. We don’t have a crystal ball so we have no idea what the injuries will look like or a situation like Ervin losing his return duties to an unknown but I would be willing to bet that Jones, Williams, Dillon, and Ervin are all rostered if everyone is healthy.

In my opinion it's possible the Packers carry four running backs on their roster and even have them active on game day. There's a chance that won't happen though.

My point was that the offense wasn't run heavy by any means last season and that you made up that they had more rushing attempts than during any of the previous five seasons.

As a side note, Williams isn't a cheap option for the third running back on the depth chart with a cap hit of nearly $2.3 million. A fact you seem to ignore for some reason.
 

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In my opinion it's possible the Packers carry four running backs on their roster and even have them active on game day. There's a chance that won't happen though.

My point was that the offense wasn't run heavy by any means last season and that you made up that they had more rushing attempts than during any of the previous five seasons.

As a side note, Williams isn't a cheap option for the third running back on the depth chart with a cap hit of nearly $2.3 million. A fact you seem to ignore for some reason.


How can you say the offense wasn’t more run heavy last season than most recent seasons? In 2019 we ranked 16th in rush attempts. We ranked dead last the year before. We were 27th in rushing attempts in 2017 and 30th in 2016. I didn’t make anything up. I took 20-15 So yea.. simple math failed me but thank you for pointing out such a meaningless correction. Open your eyes. We had a first year head coach that ran the ball more than we have for years. We drafted 3 line man and Dillon and Deguara. We are a passing league. Yada yada. I get it. I just don’t understand your obsession with trying to disprove that the Packers want to run more.

furthermore, you act like 2 million dollars is some ungodly amount for a proven vet that could play significant time. Would you rather pay a million to Montravius if he’s the 6th or 7th guy on the depth chart? Or maybe we should give that roster spot to a late round edge rusher that we won’t have a good look at before the season starts.
 

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How can you say the offense wasn’t more run heavy last season than most recent seasons? In 2019 we ranked 16th in rush attempts. We ranked dead last the year before. We were 27th in rushing attempts in 2017 and 30th in 2016. I didn’t make anything up. I took 20-15 So yea.. simple math failed me but thank you for pointing out such a meaningless correction. Open your eyes. We had a first year head coach that ran the ball more than we have for years. We drafted 3 line man and Dillon and Deguara. We are a passing league. Yada yada. I get it. I just don’t understand your obsession with trying to disprove that the Packers want to run more.

furthermore, you act like 2 million dollars is some ungodly amount for a proven vet that could play significant time. Would you rather pay a million to Montravius if he’s the 6th or 7th guy on the depth chart? Or maybe we should give that roster spot to a late round edge rusher that we won’t have a good look at before the season starts.

The offense was more run heavy in 2019 than during the last three seasons of McCarthy's tenure but they still tried to throw the ball on more than 60% of the offensive plays.

It's definitely not a smart way to manage the cap to have the third running back on the depth chart counting more than $2 million against it.
 

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It's definitely not a smart way to manage the cap to have the third running back on the depth chart counting more than $2 million against it.
It sure hurt Seattle last year not having another RB. They were a different team.
 

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The offense was more run heavy in 2019 than during the last three seasons of McCarthy's tenure but they still tried to throw the ball on more than 60% of the offensive plays.

It's definitely not a smart way to manage the cap to have the third running back on the depth chart counting more than $2 million against it.


The Packers actually had a 58% pass ratio and that was in MLF first season. I fully expect that to go even lower in year two. MLF wants a more balanced offense so his M.O. will be to run the ball.

I don’t see Williams as our third back. I already said that I think he’ll out snap Dillon but won’t get as many carries by seasons end. I see Jones as the #1 and Williams and Dillon as equals (especially from the start.) Williams is an established route runner and pass protector. We don’t know this about Dillon and pass protecting is out of the question for Ervin so you can’t expect us to start the season not knowing.

I understand that 2 million seems like a lot but these new RB numbers are outrageous and Jones will be way underpaid. We’d have a 3 headed monster for 5 million. Some teams will pay a single back twice that in 2020. the Packers strength going into the season is its backfield. Removing Williams will only make it a weakness.
 

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It sure hurt Seattle last year not having another RB. They were a different team.


They sure were. Your QB shouldn’t be your leading rusher in consecutive playoff games. The RB position is brutal and is notorious for the most injuries yearly. It’s possible to lose Jones early on. I think the majority of this board would feel more comfortable with a Willams/Dillon/Ervin backfield over a Dillon/Ervin/Dexter Williams.
 

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It sure hurt Seattle last year not having another RB. They were a different team.

I would be fine with having a talented #3 running back on the roster but there's no reason to pay him $2.3 million.

The Packers actually had a 58% pass ratio and that was in MLF first season.

No, actually excluding kneel downs the Packers called a total of 637 pass plays (573 attempts, 36 sacks and 28 scrambles by Rodgers) compared to 360 running plays. That's a percentage of 63.9%.

I don’t see Williams as our third back. I already said that I think he’ll out snap Dillon but won’t get as many carries by seasons end. I see Jones as the #1 and Williams and Dillon as equals (especially from the start.) Williams is an established route runner and pass protector. We don’t know this about Dillon and pass protecting is out of the question for Ervin so you can’t expect us to start the season not knowing.

In that case it was a mistake to select Dillon in the second round.
 

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I would be fine with having a talented #3 running back on the roster but there's no reason to pay him $2.3 million.
Where do you find a talented RB for less than $2 Million? Either you get lucky in the draft or you go w/o imho And going W/O is a dangerous thing to do.
 

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I would be fine with having a talented #3 running back on the roster but there's no reason to



No, actually excluding kneel downs the Packers called a total of 637 pass plays (573 attempts, 36 sacks and 28 scrambles by Rodgers) compared to 360 running plays. That's a percentage of 63.9%.



In that case it was a mistake to select Dillon in the second round.


Ha ha I feel like you baited me into that one. My response is 63% or 58% shouldn’t matter. It was his first year as head coach. Shanahan’s RB’s had their fewest carries in his first year and improved each year. The FO drafted Dexter Williams last year In hopes that he would be our 3rd horse. I didn’t hear posters talking about cutting Jamaal at the time.

The Dillon selection isn’t a mistake either way. He still gives us depth at the position and we still have 2 RB’s on expiring contracts. The colts and Chiefs are in the same position with Mack and Damien Williams both having expiring contracts. I highly doubt that they cut any of their top 3. I think it’s crazy that some of you think this is so uncommon.
 

Fat Dogs

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Where do you find a talented RB for less than $2 Million? Either you get lucky in the draft or you go w/o imho And going W/O is a dangerous thing to do.


The packers have 3 RB’s that will be paid out 5 million total in 2020. Here’s a list of RB’s salaries in 2020.

McCaffrey 22.3 mil
Zeke 19.8 mil
Bell 13.4 Mil
Johnson 11.1 mil
Henry 10.2 mil
Ekeler 9.5 Mil
Gordon 9 mil
Gurley 5.5 mil
Coleman 4.8 mil
Howard 4.75 mil


This 2 million dollars argument is pretty ridiculous.
 
H

HardRightEdge

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This 2 million dollars argument is pretty ridiculous.
Not if he's sitting on the bench or off the game day roster.

This Shanahan clone stuff is way overbaked. What he does is more a function of the talent on hand than a run-first philosophy. The quality of the defense factors in as well as the inclination to run the ball with the lead increases with the ability of the defense to keep points off the board, one that led the league in yards per attempt at 5.9. Anyway, if you're going to go the clone route, consider the following:

49ers 2019 Super Bowl season

1063 offensive snaps
424 RB carries
79 RB targets
47% RB focus

Falcons 2016 Super Bowl season

1042 offensive snaps
379 RB carries
107 targets
47% RB focus
#3 RB - Terron Ward, 66 offensive snaps (64%), 31 carries and 2 targets in 5 games played; the #2 Coleman missed three games

Packers 2019 season

1078 offensive snaps
355 RB carries
121 RB targets
44% RB focus
#3 RB - Carson or Ervin, each with 24 offensive snaps; the #2 Williams missed two games.

So, which Shanahan offense is LaFleur looking to clone? Looks more like his Atlanta offense. If you want to move 31 plays, two per game, from passing to RB carries to get up to 47% RB focus, then you're strikingly similar to the 2016 Falcons. Fine. That's not a schematic difference, just a slight shift in emphasis. Some or all of those 31 carries could go to Ervin, a guy LaFleur wanted to get more involved, kinda tough coming in cold at week 13.

In the world of adapting to the talent on hand, you might want to consider SF was adapting to the talent on hand and ongoing injuries and limited or unreliable snap counts. The most offensive snaps by their #4 RB in any one game was 3 by Wilson in Week 8. The total for the season was 5.

Coleman missed weeks 2 and 3, Mostert missed week 7, took 14 snaps in week 8 and 2 in week 9 suggesting he was limited putting Wilson on the game day roster for those 5 carries. Breida missed weeks 11, 12, 13 and 16, with only 32 snaps in 14, 15 and 17 incating he was limited.

Thinking that SF carried 4 RBs on the game day roster just because is an illusion. Their top 3 missed 7 games with indications at in least 5 other games that a guy was deemed unreliable with a lingering injury. Maybe all 16 games affected by injury to the top 3 to one degree or another. In this case carrying 4 RBs on the game day roster, which was not every week, would have been a function of possibly being down to 3 by the end of the first series. That's how you end up with a top 3 splitting carries equally over a season, each with a low count. You also have to consider how this would have shaked out if their true #1 McKinnon had not ended up on IR for the entire season.

Now, I have no doubt the Packers will carry 4 RBs on the 53 man roster including Ervin. They would also want to carry 4 on the game day roster if somebody not named Ervin is questionable as to how far he can go in which case you might need to game day activate a returner, maybe somebody off the PS under the new rules.

You don't draft a RB in the second round without expecting to use him a lot. Williams is a good player and a bargain in my estimation as a #2. But the Packers are not expecting him to be the #2, are they? Now you're paying Williams to be the Maytag repairman. It's hard to see that happening. Dillon may not be ready for prime time and there's little question they'd protect him on the roster.
 
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Sunshinepacker

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Not if he's sitting on the bench or off the game day roster.

This Shanahan clone stuff is way overbaked. What he does is more a function of the talent on hand than a run-first philosophy.

I mean, this is pretty much the perfect point; Shanahan is currently the best offensive coach in the NFL and doesn't subscribe to a set philosophy; he coached the best running team in the NFL last year but also coached Matt Ryan the year that Ryan was his most prolific passing. People focus on the running that the 49ers did last year, mainly because they were REALLY good at it, but they also ran so much because they have an elite TE that can block and receive, an elite defense, and because their QB isn't an elite QB (he's good but not elite) and their WR corp was fairly m'eh for much of the year.

I can almost guarantee the 49ers will throw the ball more this year because it's likely their defense will fall off and they won't be as in control of games as they were last year (note, I'm not saying they won't be run heavy, just that they'll probably have to throw more in some games).
 

Fat Dogs

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Not if he's sitting on the bench or off the game day roster.

This Shanahan clone stuff is way overbaked. What he does is more a function of the talent on hand than a run-first philosophy. The quality of the defense factors in as well as the inclination to run the ball with the lead increases with the ability of the defense to keep points off the board, one that led the league in yards per attempt at 5.9. Anyway, if you're going to go the clone route, consider the following:

49ers 2019 Super Bowl season

1063 offensive snaps
424 RB carries
79 RB targets
47% RB focus

Falcons 2016 Super Bowl season

1042 offensive snaps
379 RB carries
107 targets
47% RB focus
#3 RB - Terron Ward, 66 offensive snaps (64%), 31 carries and 2 targets in 5 games played; the #2 Coleman missed three games

Packers 2019 season

1078 offensive snaps
355 RB carries
121 RB targets
44% RB focus
#3 RB - Carson or Ervin, each with 24 offensive snaps; the #2

So, which Shanahan offense is LaFleur looking to clone? Looks more like his Atlanta offense. If you want to move 31 plays, two per game, from passing to RB carries to get up to 47% RB focus, then you're strikingly similar to the 2016 Falcons. Fine. That's not a schematic difference, just a shift in emphasis. Some or all of those 31 carries could go to Ervin, a guy LaFleur wanted to get more involved, kinda tough coming in cold at week 13.

In the world of adapting to the talent on hand, you might want to consider SF was adapting to the talent on hand and ongoing injuries and limited or unreliable snap counts. The most offensive snaps by their #4 RB in any one game was 3 by Wilson in Week 8. The total for the season was 5.

Coleman missed weeks 2 and 3, Mostert missed week 7, took 14 snaps in week 8 and 2 in week 9 suggesting he was limited putting Wilson on the game day roster for those 5 carries. Breida missed weeks 11, 12, 13 and 16, with only 32 snaps in 14, 15 and 17 incating limited.

Thinking that SF carried 4 RBs on the game day roster just because is an illusion. Their top missed 7 games with indications and at least 5 others where there are indications of guys being unreliable with lingering injuries, maybe all 16 games affected by injury to the top 3 to one degree or another. In this case carrying 4 RBs on the game day roster, which was not every week, would have been a function of being down to 3 by the end of the first series. It's how you end up with a top 3 splitting carries equally over a season, each with a low count. You also have to consider how this would have shaked out if their true #1 McKinnon had not ended up on IR for the entire season.

Now, I have no doubt the Packers will carry 4 RBs on the 53 man roster including Ervin. They would also want to carry 4 on the game day roster if somebody not named Ervin is questionable as to how far he can go in which case you might need to game day activate a guy, maybe somebody off the PS, to return kicks.

You don't draft a RB in the second round without expecting to use him a lot. Williams is a good player and a bargain in my estimation as a #2. But the Packers are not expecting him to be the #2, are they? Now you're paying Williams to be the Maytag repairman. It's hard to see that happening unless Dillon is not ready for prime time and it is he who plays Maytag repairman.


Cloning is your word. Not mine. All coaches come from different styles of play and the two just so happed to be products of the same coaching tree. They both want to use the run game to set up play action. Yes, everything does revolve around the players on hand. The packers didn’t have the players in 2019. You can’t compare not giving significant snaps to a Carson/Ervin(#3) to a Williams/Dillon (#3). Dexter Williams was drafted to be that 3rd guy but he couldn’t catch or protect. A head coach is hired to put a system in place and that’s what he’s doing. It’s now the FO’s job to drafts/signs players suited for this system.

2016 depth chart
Carlos Hyde, Shaun Draughn, Dujuan Harris.

2017 Shanahan was made head coach.

2017
Signed Tim Hightower
Drafted Joe Williams
Traded for Kapri Bibb
Signed UFA Kyle Juszyk
Signed undrafted Matt Jusczyk
Later came McKinnon, Alfred Morris, and Coleman.

I know none of this matters to you but this years draft was the start of MLF getting his guys to run his 0. The RB position will play a very important role and we will need more than 2 guys to run it. Ervin is great in the passing game and in limited snaps in the backfield but cannot pass protect. We need Williams.

You originally said that there was no way that the packers would roster 4 RB’s and I argued that they would. Now you are saying that you have no doubt that this will happen. I know that the season is fast approaching and more material is being written to sway your opinion and that’s fine. I’m just predicting that MLF will use all 3 backs significantly and Ervin will be used mainly for ST and a few sweeps here and there.
 
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