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All the draft complaining...let's look over the past 10 seasons...

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by tynimiller, May 9, 2020.

  1. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    So I posted this in another thread..however hating how threads don't stay on topic, once this is posted I'm going to go delete that post as it isn't truly on target directly with the post. Many folks, especially lately, have been making absolute comments about the Packers inability or incompetence at the higher rounds of the draft over the years.

    I'll be honest, I've not always agreed with the players picked myself...I've ate crow many a times, and I've been able to say "I told ya that guy wasn't good"...but ultimately like even the organizations with full time committed scouts, the draft is not a sure thing. There is very RARELY absolute known commodities in the prospects...so how have we done with the top shelf of drafts?

    Let's look at purely the first two rounds over the last 10 years:

    2020 - Jordan Love & AJ Dillon - both are promising in entirely different ways, one an offensive weapon for the present, the other the future. No verdict can be cast logically either way before neither step foot on a field.

    2019 - Rashan Gary, Darnell Savage and Elgton Jenkins - This class has a freak athlete the verdict is still out on learning behind two massive FA success stories (Gary). A safety that quickly proved to be more than capable of being the future back there with Amos and I expect we see more and more of (Savage). Then the CREAM of this draft so far, a Guard that wasn't just one of the best rookies in the NFL, but one of the best guards period last year as a rookie.

    2018 - Jaire Alexander and Josh Jackson - One is proving to already be considered one of the best at his position under 25 (Jaire) while the other is still way too young to say bust, but that door option is unlocked and just as likely as not.

    2017 - Kevin King and Josh Jones - One is a headcase that proved ability doesn't mean anything sometimes (Jones) and the other when healthy is a SOLID #2 CB in the league.

    2016 - Kenny Clark and Jason Spriggs - One is the biggest bust we've had in the last five years draft wise (Spriggs) and the other is arguably the biggest boom pick (Clark).

    2015 - Damarious Randall and Quinten Rollins - Both are contributors, just not for us any longer. Average NFL players with shining glimpses...sadly just didn't work out here.

    2014 - Ha HA and Davante Adams - Ha Ha is a starter in the NFL and I suspect will be for a time, just wasn't a fit here after a while, or should say wasn't worth the cash he was going to take (also a factor). The other (Adams) would argue as the best player we've drafted the last 10 years in the first two rounds (fight with Kenny Clark atm)

    2013 - Datone Jones and Eddie Lacy - One NEVER translated to the NFL (Jones) and the other was AWESOME for us for a very short time (Lacy).

    2012 - Nick Perry, Jerel Worthy and Casey Hayward - All three served great for a time. One never grew beyond contributor (Worthy), another was awesome and priced himself out of us (Hayward) and the other if injuries hadn't become an issue I think would still be here; he was a starter out the gate as well many forget (Perry).

    2011 - Derek Sherrod and Randall Cobb - One is the epitome of what might of have been stories for Green Bay had the catastrophic injury not happened (Sherrod) and the other was a HUGE part of some near SB runs (Cobb).

    2010 - Bryan Bulaga and Mike Neal - One is arguably one of the best Tackles during the past decade and the other served us as a starter four seasons and then gone....

    So for argument sake let's throw out three categories SOLID PICKS, BAD PICKS and NOT FAIR TO SAY: If a guy started well for us in that rookie contract or was a solid contributor I don't think you can argue against putting them in a solid picks...I get some will argue against Lacy, but they forget just how awesome he was when he was good for us.

    SOLID PICKS: Bulaga, Cobb, Hayward, Perry, Adams, Ha Ha, Lacy, Clark, King, Alexander, Jenkins, Savage

    BAD PICKS: Neal, Worthy, Datone Jones, Spriggs, Josh Jones...gonna put Randall and Rollins here as they couldn't consistently hold spots for us, but are NFL guys. Crazy thing is all of these guys except the two Jones I'd argue weren't bad picks persay, but given their high draft profile spots - the "bad pick" label is very much acceptable to argue. Believe 4 of them still are NFL contracted players, which says something.

    NOT FAIR TO SAY: Sherrod, Gary, Josh Jackson, Love and Dillon - All but one of these is due to simply not being enough time to see either way.

    Incase counting that is 12 Solid, "7" Bad and 5 Not Fair to Say.....in something as unpredictable as the draft, honestly stepping back that's better than even I guess I thought we'd done.



    What do you think? Getting 12 solid guys spread over 10 years with 4 current unknowns yet to be determined...is that bad?

    I'd argue despite my disagreement in some years, that is a rather impressive amount of solid picks we've had over the years in the first and/or second rounds.

    You?
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    The performance over the entire span isn't terrible, but from '15-'17, the last stage for TT, things got pretty bad. Clark is the only stud of the bunch. King has been a reasonable NFL player, but he's been oft-injured and pretty uneven when he's been on the field.
     
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  3. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Yup, and unlike a few misses in the past those mid and late round draft years didn't pull the class up any. Obviously that's not part of this thread, but if you don't have the mid round gem, the complete misses or not what you'd hope 1st and 2nd rounders the issue is magnified.
     
  4. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    This is REALLY well thought out Ty and I’m guessing took a great deal of time. It opened my eyes that our drafting hasn’t been nearly as bad as my subjective evaluation. I’m glad you gave Lacy some props because we got two really good years out of the guy and he took heat off Rodgers. He was like a force of nature who, in the end, lacked the discipline this league requires. A shame really.

    I only disagree with listing Perry as a “solid” pick. I’d drop him to Not Fair to Say because of the injuries. We just never got a good enough look at him sitting on the sidelines.

    Again, great work. The Journal/Sentinel could use a guy like you!
     
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  5. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    Yeah that’s a good point. In fairness, I think TT was and probably still is dealing with some health issues. That said, he should have bowed out by the end of 2015. I do wish him the best, and hey, he brought us ARod and Adams.
     
  6. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    To be fair Perry was one guy I hesitated with, but the fact he came in his rookie year and won the starting gig pushed him to the solid category.

    Definitely not an absolute list, and Perry is a great example of that.
     
  7. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    Perry was the only exception I had, indicative of the time you put into this. And I forgot about Perry’s first year and I often confuse him with Datone who had one good year. Anyway, the argument for Perry could go either way.

    And as you say, much as we would like to think it’s science, the draft has a lot of subjectivity to it. I still have Tony Mandarich nightmares......... I see Barry Sanders in Green and Gold instead. It’s horrible.
     
  8. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Oh my word...to have had the best RB ever to wear cleats on our team.....now I'm going to lose sleep over this vision as well.
     
  9. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Don't worry. As we all know, RB's don't matter.
     
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  10. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    Sorry buddy.
     
  11. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    A stricter way to look at this is to ask how many of these guys were home runs. As in, they were good on their rookie deal, good on an extension (or project to be), and were just consistently excellent Packers.

    Cutting it off at 2018, because the rest of it is too recent, I count five: Bulaga, Cobb, Adams, Clark, and Alexander. Five in nine years isn't great.

    Part of that is just draft position. Their average spot over those nine years was #26.
     
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  12. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I mean sure but if we're going to add groups, you'd have to separate the bad as well more. I think asking an organization to hit absolute home runs more than even 35% is a lot to ask, especially one typically picking towards end of first round. I have a hard time not including Heyward though, just because he hasn't continued with us, doesn't mean he wasn't a home run.
     
  13. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Hmmm. I don't know-- outside of Randall, all of the "bad" picks were pretty thorough misses.
     
  14. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    True I'm gracious with Quinten
     
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  15. GleefulGary

    GleefulGary Cheesehead

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    Very. He was okay as a rookie, very bad after.
     
  16. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Taking Pro Football Reference's approximate value (I understand the metric is far from perfect but the best I was able to find) into consideration I put together a ranking of teams based on their performance in the first two rounds of the draft since 2010.

    Here's what I found:

    557905FB-D433-41DE-A986-2B5EA458DC44.jpeg

    Disclaimer: I calculated the number by dividing the total approximate value accumulated for the team that drafted the players by dividing it through the total expected points based on draft position (64 points for the first overall, 63 for the second and so on).
     
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  17. Toad1924

    Toad1924 Cheesehead

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    I think we need to couple the draft results with the lack of impact FA's up until last offseason to get a full picture of why our defense has been poor for nearly a decade and why the roster was lacking overall talent when Gute took over.
     
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  18. Heyjoe4

    Heyjoe4 Cheesehead

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    Good point. I can’t prove it, but have little doubt that if TT had made better use of FA, this team would have at least one more Lombardi trophy. I get “draft and develop” - but ya can’t live by bread alone.
     
  19. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Perry is one of those things.

    1.5 sacks as a rookie.

    7 sacks in year 2.

    11 sacks in year 3.

    He really looked good that 3rd year, and I really thought he had arrived and would be a force. He never did much after that.

    Personally, I blame Capers. Seems to me there were several players, some that you mentioned, that looked good early and never got over the hump. He had a history that predates the Packers for that kind of thing.

    So I don't think this was a player evaluation failure. I think this was a coaching development issue.
     
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  20. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    I truly think it is as poor as many imagine, but also very fair to say not active enough tho.

    We brought in two of the best if not best defensive players through free agency in my lifetime....guy named Reggie and a guy named Charles.
     
  21. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    Are we talking about Nick Perry?

    2012: 2 sacks
    2013: 4
    2014: 3
    2015: 3.5
    2016: 11
    2017: 7
    2018: 1.5
     
  22. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    No. Matthew perry. Before friends , he, umm. Err. Ahmm.


    Yes.

    Nick Perry. Guess I looked at a site that posts most recent stats first. My bad.


    To my memory he did better and then had a breakout year. Signed a big contract. And that was it.
     
  23. Dantés

    Dantés Gute Loot

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    He very suspiciously played far and away his best football in a contract year. Though I think the cumulative effect of injuries over the years took a toll.
     
  24. tynimiller

    tynimiller Cheesehead

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    Many forget the fact he beat competition out to start his rookie year. I 100% get the debate over his inclusion, but I will always give the nod to a rookie able to come in and get the starting nod over someone expected to be out a rookie, no matter who that is. Walden was an experienced NFL player, and he had no business being beat by a rookie in my opinion.
     
  25. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    I recall seeing him in practice one of the early years. I thought he looked nearly equal to Clay who was in his prime at the time. Quick, great balance, and longer. Man I thought he was going to bust out.
     

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