2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[Pokerbrat2000]

To be fair I've grown to realize a few things are certain: taxes, I love good cigars and Poker always thinks a contract is too big LOL (kidding...well kinda)

Anything over $300K per year is too big in my book You, I and everybody else don't make a dime coming here to entertain everyone and we don't complain.

In all seriousness though, I am trying to stop comparing NFL money to real person money. It's best to put it inside a vacuum, and focus on it as just a number and how it pertains to the other numbers in the cap equation.

So if you assign 1 unit/$1M, its easier for me to stomach and also dumbed down for conversations. Each team can have 301 units count against their cap in 2026. Watson at 35 units/year, is equivalent to 11% of those units. Which is also equivalent to 2 Romeo Doubs or about 41 UDFA players/year. You play 4-5 WR's per game and you pretty much have to bank on injuries and having to dig deeper and go to 6-8 WR's suiting up for your team every season. That is a lot of units to put into just ONE player, in a game where you need at least 3-4, each game, at that position. For me, it just isn't enough bang for the buck/unit.

Now I know, you can play the shifting around the units and make them less hurtful one year, and more painful in the next years, but depending on the contract and the guarantees, you still have to look at how those units and how they effect building your roster this season and for seasons to come.

Honestly, I wouldn't have much of a problem with big contracts, even for Watson, if they didn't involve outrageous guaranteed money. The only thing guaranteed is that you have to account for ALL of that money, there is no guarantee on a players health or abilities. The Packers have seen big guaranteed contracts sting in the last 5 years with Bahk, Rodgers, Jaire and Gary, just to name a few. I really don't like seeing that kind of money tied up in a WR, especially one that has suffered quite a few injuries in his 4 years in the NFL.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Imagine paying Christian Watson the same as Justin Jefferson.

 

[DoURant]

I try not to worry too much about the cap, as Russ Ball always finds a way. I'm a firm believer in paying your best players, and keeping them. Yes, you will get stung sometimes, usually due to injury, but that's the nature of the beast. I would pay Watson, and hope he says healthier than he was the past 4 years. After the battle with hamstring issues, he did something about it, and seems to have fixed that problem. Then he blew out the knee, and after returning from that injury, he pretty much stayed healthy for the rest of the season.

Watson is:
- Our #1 WR
- Our best blocking WR
- He consistently, week in and week out makes a big play, or has a productive all around game. He doesn't have games where he disappears.
- He makes the offensive better, just being on the field.
- Period, he's a huge difference maker for this team, and I'm in the keep Watson camp right now. I would rather move on from Reed or Wicks, if we had to choose.

 

[tynimiller]

Anything over $300K per year is too big in my book You, I and everybody else don't make a dime coming here to entertain everyone and we don't complain.

In all seriousness though, I am trying to stop comparing NFL money to real person money. It's best to put it inside a vacuum, and focus on it as just a number and how it pertains to the other numbers in the cap equation.

So if you assign 1 unit/$1M, its easier for me to stomach and also dumbed down for conversations. Each team can have 301 units count against their cap in 2026. Watson at 35 units/year, is equivalent to 11% of those units. Which is also equivalent to 2 Romeo Doubs or about 41 UDFA players/year. You play 4-5 WR's per game and you pretty much have to bank on injuries and having to dig deeper and go to 6-8 WR's suiting up for your team every season. That is a lot of units to put into just ONE player, in a game where you need at least 3-4, each game, at that position. For me, it just isn't enough bang for the buck/unit.

Now I know, you can play the shifting around the units and make them less hurtful one year, and more painful in the next years, but depending on the contract and the guarantees, you still have to look at how those units and how they effect building your roster this season and for seasons to come.

Honestly, I wouldn't have much of a problem with big contracts, even for Watson, if they didn't involve outrageous guaranteed money. The only thing guaranteed is that you have to account for ALL of that money, there is no guarantee on a players health or abilities. The Packers have seen big guaranteed contracts sting in the last 5 years with Bahk, Rodgers, Jaire and Gary, just to name a few. I really don't like seeing that kind of money tied up in a WR, especially one that has suffered quite a few injuries in his 4 years in the NFL.

Just to the bold part - that is why structure is everything. I shared what JSN's actual hit is and in truth it is around a $95M deal over 4 years truly that is likely to happen - him, agent and team know those final two years are not happening. That means $23-$24M a year for him for four years. SIGN ME UP

 

[OldSchool101]

To be fair I've grown to realize a few things are certain: taxes, I love good cigars and Poker always thinks a contract is too big LOL (kidding...well kinda)

Say Watson signs a deal that averages out to that. I'd have to see the structure of it before commenting but in truth I think both things can be said and be true likely - it is fair market value it seems or about AND someone disagree with it being something we should

Now I like Watson, but for me personally he’s not a player who’s going to ever meet in production his $$ demand. He’s not a 1-trick pony because he does provide a deep threat. Plus he can be a supporting actor and average possession guy when called upon. Yet there’s an old saying, we were looking for a deep threat when we found him and we can be looking again.

I truly don’t believe you need to go #34 overall to get what we accomplish with Watson. MVS was a later RD5 prospect. Now I’m not implying it’s a 200% given you get that every top #165 draft selection. I am suggesting we can draft his replacement now or at least take a stab. There’s a thick WR group and it’s probably one of the better position groups as far as top end and supply into Day 3.

MVS already primed was $10mil annual with KC when he left GB. That might be equivalent to $15mil yearly next season. Now if Watson is a 4yr X 75mil I think that’s doable. Anything past $19-20Mil annual (if structured friendly) is a no for me.

I do like the idea of a trade, but that depends on the real time status of our Offense. If we’re 5-2 and running hot, I’m likely not trading away players. If we’re 3-4 and stumbling that’s a different story.

 

[OldSchool101]

I try not to worry too much about the cap, as Russ Ball always finds a way. I'm a firm believer in paying your best players, and keeping them. Yes, you will get stung sometimes, usually due to injury, but that's the nature of the beast. I would pay Watson, and hope he says healthier than he was the past 4 years. After the battle with hamstring issues, he did something about it, and seems to have fixed that problem. Then he blew out the knee, and after returning from that injury, he pretty much stayed healthy for the rest of the season.

Watson is:
- Our #1 WR
- Our best blocking WR
- He consistently, week in and week out makes a big play, or has a productive all around game. He doesn't have games where he disappears.
- He makes the offensive better, just being on the field.
- Period, he's a huge difference maker for this team, and I'm in the keep Watson camp right now. I would rather move on from Reed or Wicks, if we had to choose.

While I do agree with most of this. Let me just offer that When Watson was out Green Bay functioned just fine.

Weeks 1-7 26.33 points per game
Without Watson

Weeks 8-17 25.72 points per game
With Watson

So to start investing $30Mil-40Mil would be a total over expenditure. I could care less what other teams do to overspend I’d almost welcome it. Let him go to Chicago for $35Mil and stack it on their $95mil annual FA contracts last year and then when Caleb comes time to hit some record deal they're a sinking ship. I’d rather draft a Day 3 WR this year or look to find a FA WR that fits the bill in the $10-15mil yearly area. Next season we might even consider using a RD2-4 selection at WR again to bolster the position.

 

[DoURant]

While I do agree with most of this. Let me just offer that When Watson was out Green Bay functioned just fine.

Weeks 1-7 26.33 points per game
Without Watson

Weeks 8-17 25.72 points per game
With Watson

I would venture to say that the slight drop in offense the 2nd half was more due to losing Kraft, imo

 

[OldSchool101]

I would venture to say that the slight drop in offense the 2nd half was more due to losing Kraft, imo

Exactamundo. Precisely my point

Lock him down.

 

[DoURant]

Exactamundo. Precisely my point

.6 pts/ game... but my post was about Watson, and was geared towards the WR room, specifically, not the TE's. But I hear ya.

 

[tynimiller]

While I do agree with most of this. Let me just offer that When Watson was out Green Bay functioned just fine.

Weeks 1-7 26.33 points per game
Without Watson

Weeks 8-17 25.72 points per game
With Watson

I understand the lines here, but this is unfair IMO....

Look at the defenses seen as well here however. Also what weeks did Malik play? Weeks 11, 12, 16 and 17...loss of Kraft and loss of Micah all massive factors overall.

 

[OldSchool101]

.6 pts/ game... but my post was about Watson, and was geared towards the WR room, specifically, not the TE's. But I hear ya.

Well sure, but obviously Kraft is interlinked in this debate. He’s going to see a chunk of $ very soon

Who knows? Maybe Watson gets a healthy deal. I just know Brian has been somewhat reluctant to hand out huge $ at WR. He did try to retain #17 but Davante is a generational player and I think his hand was forced a little bit there.

 

[OldSchool101]

I understand the lines here, but this is unfair IMO....

Look at the defenses seen as well here however. Also what weeks did Malik play? Weeks 11, 12, 16 and 17...loss of Kraft and loss of Micah all massive factors overall.

I don’t there was an ever an argument against Kraft and Watson together being a wonderful combination. Just not for $60Mil annual that sounds like a nightmare

I’ll take my chances extending Kraft at 26.33 points per game and keep drafting and adding talent through FA. When Watson goes there will be a new addition. Possibly even a higher draft pick than either of us expect. There’s certainly justification for it if we save $25-40mil annually

 

[DoURant]

I don’t there was an ever an argument against Kraft and Watson together being a wonderful combination. Just not for $60Mil annual that sounds like a nightmare

I’ll take my chances extending Kraft at 26.33 points per game and keep drafting and adding talent through FA. When Watson goes there will be a new addition. Possibly even a higher draft pick than either of us expect. There’s certainly justification for it if we save $25-40mil annually

If we could have added Jayden Higgins last year, he would have been a good replacement for Watson, especially with his size and what he brings.

 

[tynimiller]

I don’t there was an ever an argument against Kraft and Watson together being a wonderful combination. Just not for $60Mil annual that sounds like a nightmare

I’ll take my chances extending Kraft at 26.33 points per game and keep drafting and adding talent through FA. When Watson goes there will be a new addition. Possibly even a higher draft pick than either of us expect. There’s certainly justification for it if we save $25-40mil annually

Again everyone is discussing the JSN figure as if it really is going to cost the Seahawks $42M a year...it isn't. The last two years WILL NOT happen as it is written. He will hit at $95.3M roughly over the first four for sure, that's around $24M/Yr.

Pierce is even more crazy the way they structured it base wise...which likely means some restructure in future but his first two years happen for sure which hits them for $22.2M/Yr...if he sees three years as currently written that is $25.53M/Yr

If Watson signs a deal that averages $35M/Yr I guarantee the way we typically structure deals it will be a 2 or 3 year deal written in a 3 or 4 year deal hitting us actually for around $20-$25M/yr truly

 

[tynimiller]

Well sure, but obviously Kraft is interlinked in this debate. He’s going to see a chunk of $ very soon

Who knows? Maybe Watson gets a healthy deal. I just know Brian has been somewhat reluctant to hand out huge $ at WR. He did try to retain #17 but Davante is a generational player and I think his hand was forced a little bit there.

Gute doesn't hesitate at all handing out top of market deals to second contract guys and has at a LOT of positions over the years.

Davante signed in 2017 and it ended up being topped only by DHop and Antonio Brown
Elgton Jenkins second highest Guard contract in 2022
Aaron Jones signed largest RB contract with us in 2021
Zach Tom signed essentially largest (beat by $500K a year) RT contract in 2025
Love only topped by Dak and Trevor Lawrence in 2024
Xavier McKinney given second highest Safety contract ovr and 4th by average
Micah given highest edge contract in 2025
Rashan given highest edge in 2023
Kenny Clark given third largest iDL in 2020
Jaire given third largest CB in 2022 (but highest average per year)
Josh Jacobs given highest RB contract in total value but 4th in per year in 2024

 

[OldSchool101]

Gute doesn't hesitate at all handing out top of market deals to second contract guys and has at a LOT of positions over the years.

Davante signed in 2017 and it ended up being topped only by DHop and Antonio Brown
Elgton Jenkins second highest Guard contract in 2022
Aaron Jones signed largest RB contract with us in 2021
Zach Tom signed essentially largest (beat by $500K a year) RT contract in 2025
Love only topped by Dak and Trevor Lawrence in 2024
Xavier McKinney given second highest Safety contract ovr and 4th by average
Micah given highest edge contract in 2025
Rashan given highest edge in 2023
Kenny Clark given third largest iDL in 2020
Jaire given third largest CB in 2022 (but highest average per year)
Josh Jacobs given highest RB contract in total value but 4th in per year in 2024

Sure. Those are all players that are Probowl or near Prowbowl levels. I’m not sure how THEY view Watson behind closed doors. Certainly capable of cracking 1,000 he was pacing those yards last season. $64/gm. Yet that’s not a top 5 at his position it’s actually a Mile away from it. Do you realize how many WR either paced or exceeded 1,000 yards last year?

19. That’s just the number of WR that clipped 1,000 yards. That excludes guys like Reed or Watson that didn’t play all year. I counted 25 WR’s pacing 1,000, I’m sure I missed a couple. Now Watson might run up 1,200 yards and hit pay dirt. But - 900-1000 yard type season is in that Romeo Doubs to Davante Adams contract average $17-22M.

 

[tynimiller]

Sure. Those are all players that are Probowl or near Prowbowl levels. I’m not sure how THEY view Watson behind closed doors. Certainly capable of cracking 1,000 he was pacing those yards last season. $64/gm. Yet that’s not a top 5 at his position it’s actually a Mile away from it. Do you realize how many WR either paced or exceeded 1,000 yards last year?

19. That’s just the number of WR that clipped 1,000 yards. That excludes guys like Reed or Watson that didn’t play all year.

The point isn't that, the point is when folks think Gute is hesitant with money, it simply has been disproven often over the years is all.

Yards alone are not representative of a WR value on the whole.

Did you know in just 10 games Watson only had 17 WRs in the league score more TDs than him.
He also had the fourth best yards per target out of all WRs in the entire league..only out done by Boutte, Pierce, Thornton....and better than JSN
Yards per reception he was only outdone by Pierce amongst WRs
Yards per game he was only outdone by 15 WRs in the league

 

[OldSchool101]

The point isn't that, the point is when folks think Gute is hesitant with money, it simply has been disproven often over the years is all.

Yards alone are not representative of a WR value on the whole.

Did you know in just 10 games Watson only had 17 WRs in the league score more TDs than him.
He also had the fourth best yards per target out of all WRs in the entire league..only out done by Boutte, Pierce, Thornton....and better than JSN
Yards per reception he was only outdone by Pierce amongst WRs
Yards per game he was only outdone by 15 WRs in the league

I never said Gute didn’t spend $. It was referring to the WR position. I said Gute has not shown willing to hit that group at high contract grosses. You kinda took it and ran with that as some global condemnation on his willingness to throw $$ around. If anything he’s been pretty aggressive and from FA Day one 2018.
I think we all just saw what he’s not afraid to lock a player down as he just made the biggest move in the NFL in Free Agency. QB of the Offense and QB of the Defense alone accounts for $100Mil average annual.

Gute is going to have to make choices. Many of those choices can bend, but a GM absolutely looks at each position group expenditure. Watson isn’t the only player getting ready to hit FA. Bo Melton. Dontay Wicks. Jayden Reed. Christian Watson. Those are all contract players, but you just can’t bother all with league leading or production contract equivalency.

Then we’re about to hand a chunk to Tucker, so how many departing guys do we max pay?

 

[tynimiller]

I never said Gute didn’t spend $. It was referring to the WR position. I said Gute has not shown willing to hit that group at high contract grosses. You kinda took it and ran with that as some global condemnation on his willingness to throw out contracts. I think we all just saw what he valued.
QB and Pass Rusher. That alone accounts for $100Mil

Gute is going to have to make choices. Many of those choices can bend, but a GM absolutely looks at each position group expenditure. Watson isn’t the only player getting ready to hit FA. Bo Melton. Dontay Wicks. Jayden Reed. Christian Watson. Those are are contract players. Do you suggest giving them each top of the league $$? I’d also submit Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave cause they’re basically pseudo receivers.

No running with things, sometimes posts respond and then build on a thought that’s all I was doing.

Jayden Reed is an excellent piece to a team but if Golden can play out of the slot I would argue fiscally and offensive construction it makes more sense to extend Watson now and then possibly or likely Wicks on a one year or two type deal as he is a far better outside WR but also will be cheaper.

Kraft is numero uno but Watson is the diverse weapon no one else is for us…he can and does thrive in slot, short routes, deep routes, constructed screens and excels at blocking.

Lock up Watson see how 2026 plays out and honestly if Reed starts season well and Golden shows growth trading Reed is not a crazy thought. I still think a Josh Sweat and Reed trade would make a ton of sense (obviously some picks may have to change hands as well but still)

 

[OldSchool101]

No running with things, sometimes posts respond and then build on a thought that’s all I was doing.

Jayden Reed is an excellent piece to a team but if Golden can play out of the slot I would argue fiscally and offensive construction it makes more sense to extend Watson now and then possibly or likely Wicks on a one year or two type deal as he is a far better outside WR but also will be cheaper.

Kraft is numero uno but Watson is the diverse weapon no one else is for us…he can and does thrive in slot, short routes, deep routes, constructed screens and excels at blocking.

Lock up Watson see how 2026 plays out and honestly if Reed starts season well and Golden shows growth trading Reed is not a crazy thought. I still think a Josh Sweat and Reed trade would make a ton of sense (obviously some picks may have to change hands as well but still)

Oh it’s ok I’m just busting your chops.
We are all just excited talking football and both passionate about our future.

It’s definitely a thought trading Reed.
I think he’d bring some good draft capital also. Watson does hold a unique skill set and I’d feel pretty good having Golden and Watson and Savion and signing player “X” through the draft. Plus maybe keeping 1 of Melton or Wicks, just in system guys who stabilize the room.

The case for Watson is it’s easier to find an underneath possession Receiver than a True Burner like #9. 17.5 per and he’s sneakily got some varietal of skillsets. He paced 1,023 yards off an ACL. Reed, Doubs and Golden are similarly talented, but no question that Watson can take the top off a Defense and is slightly more dynamic imo. What can he do in the full spotlight who knows. Also I like the blazing speed factor we have with Golden and Watson. Not all opponents have a pair of 4.3’s boundary CB’s and that = raw separation. The last thing you need as an opponent is Watson or Golden with a yard of separation and the ball in rhythm.

I digress. Back to Lukas Van Ness

 

[Heyjoe4]

The point isn't that, the point is when folks think Gute is hesitant with money, it simply has been disproven often over the years is all.

Yards alone are not representative of a WR value on the whole.

Did you know in just 10 games Watson only had 17 WRs in the league score more TDs than him.
He also had the fourth best yards per target out of all WRs in the entire league..only out done by Boutte, Pierce, Thornton....and better than JSN
Yards per reception he was only outdone by Pierce amongst WRs
Yards per game he was only outdone by 15 WRs in the league

To the two points you make:

1. Gluten has never been afraid to spend in FA. And with the exception of last year (Hobbs and Banks, with the jury out on Banks), he's made some great additions to the team. As I recall there were a lot of negative comments on here about TT almost never partcipating in FA, with Woodson being the notable exception. Gluten has used FA very well.

2. When healthy, I think Watson is among the top 10 WRs in the NFL. Big problem - he hasn't had a season without an injury. As a player, he's improved dramatically - he catches most throws, his route running is much better than his rookie year, his speed is what it has always been - fast, he's tall at I think 6'2, maybe 6'4, and he's a good blocking WR. And best of all - he has a nose for the end zone.

To be paid as an elite or near-elite WR, Watson needs a solid campaign this year (15-17 games regular season). IMO he needs about 1300-1400 yards and say 10-12 TDs, probably more. He can do it and now he has to prove it. I like Watson and it was clear last season what a big impact he has on the offense.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I understand the lines here, but this is unfair IMO....

Look at the defenses seen as well here however. Also what weeks did Malik play? Weeks 11, 12, 16 and 17...loss of Kraft and loss of Micah all massive factors overall.

I admit I haven't followed this whole thread, but there seems to be a suggestion that Watson is a valuable WR, but we could live w/o him.

I don't agree and I'm pretty sure you don't Ty. He had an immediate impact when he returned from his ACL tear. It was amazing how he looked to be in midseason form immediately.

To get paid though, he has to put together a mostly injury-free year (15-17 games started in regular season and available for the playoffs). If he does that, he'll put up great yardage numbers, and he knows how to find the end zone. 2026-2027 is when he needs to put it all together.

 

[OldSchool101]

I admit I haven't followed this whole thread, but there seems to be a suggestion that Watson is a valuable WR, but we could live w/o him.

I don't agree and I'm pretty sure you don't Ty. He had an immediate impact when he returned from his ACL tear. It was amazing how he looked to be in midseason form immediately.

To get paid though, he has to put together a mostly injury-free year (15-17 games started in regular season and available for the playoffs). If he does that, he'll put up great yardage numbers, and he knows how to find the end zone. 2026-2027 is when he needs to put it all together.

Agree with most of this. Initially there was numbers being tossed around and guaranteed that is in sniffing range to Micah Parsons ($120Mil guar) Due to the Njigba contract. I think that’s where the separation comes in for me. I think Ty or someone said the actual contract won’t be that bad. That’s fine if he’s $20mil actual yearly. Especially if we get him on a longer 4yr type deal.
$20mil today and $20mil in year 4 are completely different deals. These contracts are compounding and so $20Mil average today on a 4yr deal probably feels more $16-18Mil impact over the long term. We almost always push a chunk off into future where it has less immediate bearing.

 

[OldSchool101]

What I meant to offer is the Packers were still vying for a Division title until the last couple weeks of 2025. We also went in limping to Soldier field and nearly upset them without a roomful of our best talent. That’s called Win Now imo. I’m ok with pushing a reasonable contract into the future if it means we get 2-3 more years of High Octane play in a Win Now.

My prayer going forward is I Hope Van Ness gets more playing time than his own thread gets his name mentioned!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yards alone are not representative of a WR value on the whole.

Did you know in just 10 games Watson only had 17 WRs in the league score more TDs than him.
He also had the fourth best yards per target out of all WRs in the entire league..only out done by Boutte, Pierce, Thornton....and better than JSN
Yards per reception he was only outdone by Pierce amongst WRs
Yards per game he was only outdone by 15 WRs in the league

Some of that is a reflection of Watson and some of it is a reflection of Love and the Packers offense. So while I am not saying that Watson isn't a good WR, I just think a lot of that production would be there with or with Watson. You just have to decipher how much Watson adds over another WR. For instance if you had to choose between keeping Doubs or Watson, and Doubs wanted $17M and Watson wanted $35M, who would you choose? Does Watson give you $18M more in production over Doubs?