2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[SudsMcBucky]

@Pokerbrat2000 Here you go:

Good stuff here, Tyni.

 

[tynimiller]

Just for the record - you cannot sign LVN to a one year prove it deal. If that is all you wish to accomplish and think he sucks or is unreliable or just a JAG you simply don't pick up his 5th year option. He plays out this fourth and final upcoming season and he becomes a UFA.

The thing I think some are getting confused is the action of not picking up the 5th year, entering into conversations and doing an extended deal adding one additional year to his deal. Putting that same $15M dollars he would have got in the 5th year deal across two years and in his pocket.

Example doing this would mean we essentially pay him

20.5M across 2026 and 2027 or 10.25M each season rather than 5.5 this year and full 15M next year.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Best bet is to drop the fifth year option and sign him to a one-year, prove it deal that is less than $15 mil and not fully guaranteed - maybe with a lot of incentives. Whether or not he is a good DE, he's been unreliable due to injury and he has never started.

Has he been good enough for a clean 5th year option - personally I say no. Has he been good, absolutely. Which is why I'd try to do the one year extension instead of 5th year option thing.

Good share @tynimiller thanks. I didn't skip your post, I just didn't soak all of the numbers up.

I also don't think Enagbare is better than LVN and it will be interesting to see what the Packers do in regards to Enagbare. Good depth guy, but not starter level. Not really pertinent to the discussion, but I would also say that for a 5th rounder, Kingsley has been a better investment than LVN, so far.

While I agree with you, @Heyjoe4 and a few others that the smart move here would be to try and extend LVN through 2027 or even 2028, I'm not sure that LVN and his agent would do that. I guess it depends on guaranteed money and incentives.

I am a firm believer in incentives and this is a perfect example of why they should be incorporated into more contracts. IF LVN and the Packers are happy with each other, why not sign a deal that keeps him here for 3-4 more seasons. Give him a $5M base salary/season, $5M guaranteed and incentives that either keep him at the $5M (he gets injured and doesn't play) or allows him to reach up to $40M if he suddenly becomes a Pro Bowl player and hits all of his incentive pay levels.

 

[tynimiller]

Good share @tynimiller thanks. I didn't skip your post, I just didn't soak all of the numbers up.

I also don't think Enagbare is better than LVN and it will be interesting to see what the Packers do in regards to Enagbare. Good depth guy, but not starter level. Not really pertinent to the discussion, but I would also say that for a 5th rounder, Kingsley has been a better investment than LVN, so far.

While I agree with you, @Heyjoe4 and a few others that the smart move here would be to try and extend LVN through 2027 or even 2028, I'm not sure that LVN and his agent would do that. I guess it depends on guaranteed money and incentives.

I am a firm believer in incentives and this is a perfect example of why they should be incorporated into more contracts. IF LVN and the Packers are happy with each other, why not sign a deal that keeps him here for 3-4 more seasons. Give him a $5M base salary/season, $5M guaranteed and incentives that either keep him at the $5M (he gets injured and doesn't play) or allows him to reach up to $40M if he suddenly becomes a Pro Bowl player and hits all of his incentive pay levels.

See I think Gary right now heading into the 2026 season is the guy to discuss incentive based contract restructure because the team simply needs more out of a $20M or more guy.

IF Gary is back with us that’s something I’d demand from his side - has to be some give and take.

If just grading purely the draft picks I already shared I think with no hindsight LVN was an A- and in truth you likely remember I was massively high on Enagbare so like when we got Doubs so late I felt they were an A+ grade and in truth with hindsight they both stayed there for me.

LVN right now B- but man his ceiling is special if he can stay healthy - GB knows it, other teams recognize it…he just needs health for longer stretches

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

See I think Gary right now heading into the 2026 season is the guy to discuss incentive based contract restructure because the team simply needs more out of a $20M or more guy.

IF Gary is back with us that’s something I’d demand from his side - has to be some give and take.

If just grading purely the draft picks I already shared I think with no hindsight LVN was an A- and in truth you likely remember I was massively high on Enagbare so like when we got Doubs so late I felt they were an A+ grade and in truth with hindsight they both stayed there for me.

LVN right now B- but man his ceiling is special if he can stay healthy - GB knows it, other teams recognize it…he just needs health for longer stretches

Well you know me, if I had my way, every player would be on an incentive based contract, but that will never happen.

There is no doubt in my mind that LVN has a higher ceiling than he is at now. The question is, how much $$ do the Packers want to bank on it. When I say "bank", I mean guarantee, because then it is no longer just an entry into a spread sheet, it is a permanent dead cap, that at some point has to be accounted for.

But you are right. With DE being the highest paid defensive position, every team is hoping to find that next undiscovered stud. So yes, if the Packers just sit tight, don't exercise the 5th year option or work out some kind of extension, LVN could play his way into a very lucrative Free Agent offer in 2027. To do that he would have to stay healthy, get a lot of snaps and continue to improve.

Funny thing is, if LVN had been a stud and starter at DE after the 2024 season, I don't think Gute goes out and gets Parsons. Now maybe getting Parsons was a hedge on 1 of or both Gary and LVN not being with the team for much longer.

I know this, the Packers need to improve their DL and that includes the play from everyone not named Parsons.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

See I think Gary right now heading into the 2026 season is the guy to discuss incentive based contract restructure because the team simply needs more out of a $20M or more guy.

I FULLY agree, but that in itself is a whole different discussion. However, it also influences what they might do with LVN. If they cut/trade Gary, LVN is more of a lock to be extended, just based on need. If they work out some kind of cap friendly extension with Gary, than keeping LVN around past 2026 becomes less critical.

Basically, I don't think Gary and LVN will both be on the team past 2026. Heck, they might both be gone depending on the Packers draft and FA signings.

I would hope that if the Packers are talking with both players about a restructured deal, they keep the details quiet from the other player/agent and out of the media. If the Packers are planning on cutting/trading Gary, do that AFTER you work out a deal with LVN.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think Lukas was a slight reach when we packaged and moved up in our Jets trade. I’m seeing his contribution level at later Day 1 levels. That’s being generous after 33%,39% consecutive seasons snaps and then an injury plagued season.

Week 1, 2026 IS already a “prove it deal” for Lukas imo. This should be at minimum a Preston Smith type 8 sacks season level play or 20 TFL and a couple FF. Even then we’ve never recouped his draft cost. If we’re going to play guys Part Timers (35% snaps) PLEASE don’t spend a Top 13 selection on them. They always act like “we don’t want cover up the young talent” but then we go put on full display of covering up young talent at our highest draft position. All after touring “high projection” which infers kiss a couple seasons away. Save the rhetoric for Day 3

2026 is all about Lukas. Our own development curve has put him in a bind. Lukas likely has 6+ Weeks to prove his worth. The very millisecond Parsons returns, LVN growth is buried behind Gary and next time? just back 5-10 spots or work a J’aire gyration move for a future Day 1 and a current Top 20. Btw. When Parsons comes back LVN is rotational again? ? No thank you.

 

[tynimiller]

I FULLY agree, but that in itself is a whole different discussion. However, it also influences what they might do with LVN. If they cut/trade Gary, LVN is more of a lock to be extended, just based on need. If they work out some kind of cap friendly extension with Gary, than keeping LVN around past 2026 becomes less critical.

Basically, I don't think Gary and LVN will both be on the team past 2026. Heck, they might both be gone depending on the Packers draft and FA signings.

I would hope that if the Packers are talking with both players about a restructured deal, they keep the details quiet from the other player/agent and out of the media. If the Packers are planning on cutting/trading Gary, do that AFTER you work out a deal with LVN.

Completely agree - the discussion with LVN must be completed first as Gary on his way out would be a MASSIVE leverage piece handed over to LVN's agent.

Honestly, the LVN piece is crucial and likley my first "goal" because it then needs followed by the Gary and Enagbare discussions.

From there I need to discuss with Jenkins where he is at, is he willing to take a massive paycut but stay and not have to move this late into his career? I'm talking like cut in half...I don't think he gets more than $12M-$15M elsewhere if cut...so stay for $10M...$8.5M with incentives reaching $10.5M if he sees 95% of games as a starter type thing...I don't know but the Jenkins chip causes me to then know perhaps what I want to do with Rhyan...if Jenkins is back I think you easily can let Rhyan walk....if not, I think Rhyan back on a schmedium deal is the right call and you hope he is that maybe start of the season starter than eventually is your reserve Center and Guard.

The Quay thing is so weird for me, I don't even know if I'd share a number with him yet. What does the draft look like, how comfortable our with entering the season with our guys being Cooper / McDuffie / Hopper and Johnson.....Hafley knew McDuffie like the back of his hand...does the new DC get the best out of him like Hafley - if the new DC doesn't want a guy that is insanely intelligent but physically limited do you ask Hafley for a fifth or sixth rounder and trade McDuffie and sign Quay?

I'm fairly rock solid on many things I'd do if I were the GM but Quay is an enigma to me on what I'd do.

 

[OldSchool101]

From there I need to discuss with Jenkins where he is at, is he willing to take a massive paycut but stay and not have to move this late into his career? I'm talking like cut in half...I don't think he gets more than $12M-$15M elsewhere if cut...so stay for $10M...$8.5M with incentives reaching $10.5M if he sees 95% of games as a starter type thing...I don't know but the Jenkins chip causes me to then know perhaps what I want to do with Rhyan...if Jenkins is back I think you easily can let Rhyan walk....if not, I think Rhyan back on a schmedium deal is the right call and you hope he is that maybe start of the season starter than eventually is your reserve Center and Guard.

Interesting thought. My earlier idea was going out and finding a $10m per OL fix. While I’m not sure Jenkins would do that? It’s worth a try. Only if he moves back to Guard though I’m kinda getting tired of experimenting at Center. Center ideally needs to be someone who is rock solid and stays rock solid for 5+ years minimum. Go draft a Center this is a good year in RD2-4,5 at Center. Not heavy at top, but very good starter level guys coming in. Go Get one Gutey.

If Jenkins signed a 3yrX$30mil type deal I’d be all over it. Restructure I mean

 

[tynimiller]

Interesting thought. My earlier idea was going out and finding a $10m per OL fix. While I’m not sure Jenkins would do that? It’s worth a try. Only if he moves back to Guard though I’m kinda getting tired of experimenting at Center. Center ideally needs to be someone who is rock solid and stays rock solid for 5+ years minimum. Go draft a Center this is a good year in RD2-4,5 at Center. Not heavy at top, but very good starter level guys coming in. Go Get one Gutey.

If Jenkins signed a 3yrX$30mil type deal I’d be all over it.

I have always been in the camp of explain to the player in all honesty upfront where you're at fiscal wise to be able to continue to build a team you're confident in. If that means you tell Jenkins your number is essentially rip up the contract you have and we will do 3 years for $30M with 60% of that guaranteed than do it - worst thing I think one can do to a guy later in their career is just say thanks, love ya but bye....

OR at minimum ask his agent to discuss with Elgton if he wants to know where the Packers would have to be at for it to work - with full disclosure they don't want to offend him.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Completely agree - the discussion with LVN must be completed first as Gary on his way out would be a MASSIVE leverage piece handed over to LVN's agent.

Honestly, the LVN piece is crucial and likley my first "goal" because it then needs followed by the Gary and Enagbare discussions.

From there I need to discuss with Jenkins where he is at, is he willing to take a massive paycut but stay and not have to move this late into his career? I'm talking like cut in half...I don't think he gets more than $12M-$15M elsewhere if cut...so stay for $10M...$8.5M with incentives reaching $10.5M if he sees 95% of games as a starter type thing...I don't know but the Jenkins chip causes me to then know perhaps what I want to do with Rhyan...if Jenkins is back I think you easily can let Rhyan walk....if not, I think Rhyan back on a schmedium deal is the right call and you hope he is that maybe start of the season starter than eventually is your reserve Center and Guard.

The Quay thing is so weird for me, I don't even know if I'd share a number with him yet. What does the draft look like, how comfortable our with entering the season with our guys being Cooper / McDuffie / Hopper and Johnson.....Hafley knew McDuffie like the back of his hand...does the new DC get the best out of him like Hafley - if the new DC doesn't want a guy that is insanely intelligent but physically limited do you ask Hafley for a fifth or sixth rounder and trade McDuffie and sign Quay?

I'm fairly rock solid on many things I'd do if I were the GM but Quay is an enigma to me on what I'd do.

Decisions on all these players are driven by cap, but more importantly, since we are still a playoff contender, need is very important too. So I agree with the strategy of trying to lock in your needed pieces, at the right price and then go after those fringe pieces that money is the most important factor of saying to them "New deal or we have to say good bye."

As far as Quay goes, I wouldn't break the bank on him. I think he will get an insanely too high offer elsewhere and I am fine with that. In watching other teams this year, more than I normally do, I think we need a "smarter" and more veteran savvy ILB than what Quay gives us. In general, I would like to see Gute shift to a more veteran defense and do that through Free agency. I am not saying mortgage the future by signing THE best available free agents at ILB, DL and CB, but go after experienced, known quantities. You might trade away raw, young talent, but in return you get a player with a large body of work and less of a variable as to their talent level.

 

[OldSchool101]

For some reason. I am not high on Quay Walker. He’s not a bad or anything like that. Yet he’s playing at $6-8Mil FA market level. All the While we drafted at LB in 2024,2025 using substantial collateral with a 3rd Rounder and 5th Rounder. Both should be ready to be promoted.
I’m totally ok with rolling the dice on Quay. He’s really a luxury at this point when factoring 2026 we should be looking under rocks for cap dollars.

I really like Red Murdock in Day3. He can fill in rotational to start, but I think he’s a more disruptive version of McDuffie. He now holds the NCAA record for forced fumbles after passing Khalil Mack. He’s somewhat unrefined, yet he’s a tackling machine and highly disruptive LB. He’s what I’d say resembles the Box LB version of DT Karl Brooks (MAC)

I digress., back to Lukas!

 

[OldSchool101]

I have always been in the camp of explain to the player in all honesty upfront where you're at fiscal wise to be able to continue to build a team you're confident in. If that means you tell Jenkins your number is essentially rip up the contract you have and we will do 3 years for $30M with 60% of that guaranteed than do it - worst thing I think one can do to a guy later in their career is just say thanks, love ya but bye....

OR at minimum ask his agent to discuss with Elgton if he wants to know where the Packers would have to be at for it to work - with full disclosure they don't want to offend him.

True. If they leave they leave but then it’s on the player or agent if the grass isn’t greener.
One thing a consistent and successful team offers is that opportunity to play in the postseason. There’s only maybe 8-10 teams that can say that. If players want to continue into their 30’s, their portfolio isn’t complete unless they have postseason accolades. When you are any team wanting to upgrade. You often look to those proven veteran 30-33yr olds that aren’t looking for $25mil annual anymore. They want a multi year deal due to age at moderate $10-12 annual Thus both parties benefit as GB could delay his departure and move on in 2-3 yrs.
It’s surprising his many OL play well into their 30’s. 2 more years in GB and Jenkins still has a market if he plays above average.

 

[Heyjoe4]

True. If they leave they leave but then it’s on the player or agent if the grass isn’t greener.
One thing a consistent and successful team offers is that opportunity to play in the postseason. There’s only maybe 8-10 teams that can say that. If players want to continue into their 30’s, their portfolio isn’t complete unless they have postseason accolades. When you are any team wanting to upgrade. You often look to those proven veteran 30-33yr olds that aren’t looking for $25mil annual anymore. They want a multi year deal due to age at moderate $10-12 annual Thus both parties benefit as GB could delay his departure and move on in 2-3 yrs.
It’s surprising his many OL play well into their 30’s. 2 more years in GB and Jenkins still has a market if he plays above average.

That's interesting OS - guys who play OL are still playing well into their 30s. I think that's probably true, but haven't seen any stats on it.

As for Jenkins, we don't know what conversations were had between his agent and the Packers. We can only guess, and the best guess is that Jenkins will get more in FA than the Packers are willing to pay. There's no proof of that, but I'm sure it happens every year to a lot of FAs.

At age 30, a 3 year deal for $30-26 mil for Jenkins seems reasonable. But he seems very focused on comp, and why not? He wanted to make sure he wasn't locked into a guard's salary while playing C. Now his agent can negotiate a comp plan appropriate for the position he's intended to play, or multiple positions.

It just feels inevitable that he'll leave. Jenkins played well in GB and added a lot of talent and versatility. He's at the same spot Mike Daniels was in when he departed GB. Not apples to apples, defensive player and offensive player. Even so, there's more reluctance to do a third contract for any position. Again, it always seems like the best FAs get paid more than their going rate. That's life........