2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[OldSchool101]

We ultimately paid Rashan $4.5M per season across a 4yr Rookie contract and $22M average Cap for 2023-2025. Yes that includes 2026 Dead. We also do get a guaranteed RD4 selection in return, similar +- to what we would’ve gotten (similar to Malik) had he departed clean in FA and if he continued on that $$ pathway with a new team $20Mil annual deal.

For that he generated 51.0 Sacks including postseason
That averages
-7.5 Sacks per season
-51 TFL or 7.5/ year (17.5% rate) (B+)
-Passer rating 78.9% career (B+)
-57.1% completion allowed (A-)
-5.2% Missed Tackle (A-)
-121 QB hits (17.3 per year)
1 PD per season
1 FF per season
1 FR per season
1 Probowl

Played in 91.42% Regular Season
Played in 100% Postseason
Played in 92.1% of total games or
15.66 of every 17 games

So Run Stop, Pass Coverage and Reliability marks are high. Pass Rush finish is slightly underperforming, but nothing drastic out of normal for a #12 overall selection. Great teammate, no personal issues and High lockerroom character guy. Kickback top ~#125 selection.

Redrafted he’s likely not as high as #12. Easily in RD1 and a draft Top 20 area realm, if I was hazarding a guess.

Just a tidbit or can’t recall if discussed, Gary revamped his contract into the $17Mil area for Dallas. Which is exactly in the range I said his value was pre trade (patting myself on back). I just think that’s his value to current production trajectory. No way is he worth $22,24,26mil imo

 

[Heyjoe4]

Too long to play well? Gary played well just didn't play often because we literally had two high level Smiths and a double digit sack Fackrell....

When did they draft Gary, and when did they acquire the Smiths? I thought it was the same year. It turned out to be a solid FA class with the Smiths, Savage, and Billy Turner.

At the time, I was surprised Gluten paid up for two Edge guys given Gary's presence. In hindsight it was the right move. Gary improved in his early years through the beginning of his first (non-rookie) contract.

I think Parsons will be back early November (he was injured on Dec 14, 2025). to the question of would they acquire Parsons, if Gary and LVN were playing well, or even just one of them? IMO, probably not. Cooper has also been playing well. So IF they had LVN, Gary, and Cooper all playing well, Gluten probably never look at Parsons.

But I'm glad Parsons is playing for GB. When he is healthy, and he usually is, he transforms the entire D. And now with Gary gone, and fingers crossed on LVN, it will be a very good day indeed when Parsons returns.

 

[tynimiller]

Yes we acquired the smiths and then drafted Gary, the season after Fackrell had double digit sacks.

it will be a very good day indeed when Parsons returns.

This would be true regardless of who is on our roster. There is literally only one other defensive player more destructive than him arguably and that's Myles Garrett....and even if you had MG it would still be a very good day when he would return.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes we acquired the smiths and then drafted Gary, the season after Fackrell had double digit sacks.


This would be true regardless of who is on our roster. There is literally only one other defensive player more destructive than him arguably and that's Myles Garrett....and even if you had MG it would still be a very good day when he would return.

Thanks for the confirmation. At the time, it seemed weird to draft Gary and also acquire the Smiths in FA. But it was a very good move and allowed Gary some time to work on being a sack producer. He didn't play that role at MI, so it took I think a year or two before he was consistently getting to the QB (just never enough).

And I was thinking about how Parsons compares with Garrett. IMO Garrett is the "brute force" type of Edge defender while Parsons just never, ever gives up. It's such a fine line between the two best Edge players in the NFL. They are both very strong, very fast and very effective.

And yeah Parsons' return will be welcomed by all Packer fans and dreaded, esp by opponents in the North.

One surefire way to get into SB contention is to have LVN and Cooper start out blazing, to be joined by the always-blazing Parsons. That trio will give opposing Ds fits.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

There is literally only one other defensive player more destructive than him arguably and that's Myles Garrett....and even if you had MG it would still be a very good day when he would return.

I'm a big Myles Garrett fan and feel bad for him that he has had to waste his great skills while stuck in Cleveland. At least he "got the girl" (Chloe Kim) and is respected throughout the NFL, but he deserves a bigger spotlight.

 

[OldSchool101]

When did they draft Gary, and when did they acquire the Smiths? I thought it was the same year. It turned out to be a solid FA class with the Smiths, Savage, and Billy Turner.

At the time, I was surprised Gluten paid up for two Edge guys given Gary's presence. In hindsight it was the right move. Gary improved in his early years through the beginning of his first (non-rookie) contract.

I think Parsons will be back early November (he was injured on Dec 14, 2025). to the question of would they acquire Parsons, if Gary and LVN were playing well, or even just one of them? IMO, probably not. Cooper has also been playing well. So IF they had LVN, Gary, and Cooper all playing well, Gluten probably never look at Parsons.

But I'm glad Parsons is playing for GB. When he is healthy, and he usually is, he transforms the entire D. And now with Gary gone, and fingers crossed on LVN, it will be a very good day indeed when Parsons returns.

Makes some sense. Maybe we’re kinda seeing Gary for what he is, a very good player but not some game changer either.

I think Gute had that opportunity to acquire Parsons but might not have been perfect timing. Yet those Watt, Mack, Parsons, Maxx, types don’t come across our plate but once in a decade, if that. You swing for the bleachers and ask questions later.

I think you’re right though Joe, once we landed Micah it stresses the Cap and you can’t have $65Mil yearly tied up in 2 players. It’s essentially “buying” your way into a pass Rush instead of using a mix of coaching and development of young players. For me it leaves a superficial feel to roster building. It’s artificially generated and might work on a SB caliber season for 1yr etc. Now Rashan kinda acted a good part temporarily or earlier in 2025, but then reverted back to his normal self. Gary can have games where he’s dominant, but he’s just plain not consistent enough.

I do think our team sees LVN at a comparable level to Gary, but still more raw and slightly better top end.

 

[OldSchool101]

As far as Lukas, he’s Gary’s best replacement option. He really has about 2.5 years of playing time but he’s been held back a little bit and for good reason. He comes in with just 2 years of College play as a regular situational Pass Rusher. Ideally that’s a guy that is used sparingly in his Rookie season, and he was.

Here he’s going to be replacing Rashan Gary who hovered between 53% and 70% snaps and to me that more normal starter level. Lukas has never exceeded 45% and it was in 2025 when he likely is playing at most 6 or 7 games healthy. Let’s see him play 15-17 games at 65%. Then let’s put him where imo he’s best suited, as a big 3-4 OLB where he can use his speed to power against non Elite Tackles onto skates.

LVN imo is hard to Run around the Edge because he appears on surface like a DT. Until you underestimate his 1.57 10 yard quickness and that either takes you into a sideline or into his 34” loving arms

 

[SudsMcBucky]

I'm a big Myles Garrett fan and feel bad for him that he has had to waste his great skills while stuck in Cleveland. At least he "got the girl" (Chloe Kim) and is respected throughout the NFL, but he deserves a bigger spotlight.

I don't feel one bit bad for him. He was the one who agreed to taking their big bag to stay in that godforsaken hole.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the Packers switching back to a 3-4 defense has a lot to do with their new DC Jonathan Gannon. However, by making that switch, they are taking advantage of having guys like Parsons, Cooper and Franklin at LB. That leaves an opening for an OLB. Since I don't think LVN is built to play DT in a 3-4, that would leave him to battle for the other OLB position with Cox, Sorrell, Oliver and anyone else the Packers bring in.

I am actually kind of excited about the switch back to the 3-4. I think Parsons will be even more dynamic for the defense. Obviously, we will still see a lot of nickel and other packages, but if LVN or someone else steps up at that other OLB position, look out!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't feel one bit bad for him. He was the one who agreed to taking their big bag to stay in that godforsaken hole.

Valid point, since that big bag of $$ would have been available to him just about anywhere he chose to go. I guess that bank account definitely softens the blow of being in Cleveland. Possibly, like a lot of Cleveland fans, he may have thought that the front office knew what they were doing and where building a dynasty in Cleveland.

 

[Magooch]

Somewhat related to LVN...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba just signed a 4-year, 168.6m extension with the Seahawks (42.15m annually, 120m guaranteed) making him the highest-paid WR in league history.

JSN was drafted #20 in 2023, the same year that LVN was picked #13.

 

[Half Empty]

Somewhat related to LVN...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba just signed a 4-year, 168.6m extension with the Seahawks (42.15m annually, 120m guaranteed) making him the highest-paid WR in league history.

JSN was drafted #20 in 2023, the same year that LVN was picked #13.

So, you're saying the Pack got a bargain?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Somewhat related to LVN...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba just signed a 4-year, 168.6m extension with the Seahawks (42.15m annually, 120m guaranteed) making him the highest-paid WR in league history.

JSN was drafted #20 in 2023, the same year that LVN was picked #13.

I too was looking at that draft, players taken in the first round, before and after LVN. As with every draft, there were players that were busts, booms and still unknown. LVN is probably more in the still unknown but closer to bust (for a #13 pic).

JSN is a great WR and seeing that he was the 20th pick in the draft, a major hit for Schneider and the Seahawks. That said, I honestly don't know if I would want JSN and his $42.15M/year contract. That is a lot of cheddar to pay 1 player, 1 WR. Which also makes me wonder about Christian Watson and his agents demands are for a new contract. I love having solid WR's, but the Packers 2025 group were all on rookie or low end deals and they did pretty well. Paying 1 WR that kind of money, just seems foolish.

 

[tynimiller]

I'm a big Myles Garrett fan and feel bad for him that he has had to waste his great skills while stuck in Cleveland. At least he "got the girl" (Chloe Kim) and is respected throughout the NFL, but he deserves a bigger spotlight.

He chose to stay there. 100% on him.

 

[OldSchool101]

Somewhat related to LVN...

Jaxon Smith-Njigba just signed a 4-year, 168.6m extension with the Seahawks (42.15m annually, 120m guaranteed) making him the highest-paid WR in league history.

JSN was drafted #20 in 2023, the same year that LVN was picked #13.

That’s crazy $$ for a non QB. He’s making $12Mil more yearly over Sam Darnold’s deal. They stole Darnold and that’s what really enabled them to do this. The Contract $ imo should be reversed. Their QB should’ve gotten that contract and vise versa

JSN Deal is actually quite similar to Micah Parsons. I think the guaranteed was identical. I’d rather have Parsons if given a choice though.

 

[milani]

I think the Packers switching back to a 3-4 defense has a lot to do with their new DC Jonathan Gannon. However, by making that switch, they are taking advantage of having guys like Parsons, Cooper and Franklin at LB. That leaves an opening for an OLB. Since I don't think LVN is built to play DT in a 3-4, that would leave him to battle for the other OLB position with Cox, Sorrell, Oliver and anyone else the Packers bring in.

I am actually kind of excited about the switch back to the 3-4. I think Parsons will be even more dynamic for the defense. Obviously, we will still see a lot of nickel and other packages, but if LVN or someone else steps up at that other OLB position, look out!

I am concerned about the switch especially in the first year. Gannon has to really be ready to implement these changes effectively and not experimentally. He faced 3 strong offenses in the NFC West. Now he will face 3 more in the NFC Central. Be ready to chase Caleb Williams.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am concerned about the switch especially in the first year. Gannon has to really be ready to implement these changes effectively and not experimentally. He faced 3 strong offenses in the NFC West. Now he will face 3 more in the NFC Central. Be ready to chase Caleb Williams.

Yup and it throws somewhat of a wrench into what Gute has been doing. Now maybe he didn't specifically draft for 4-3 players in the last few drafts, but I doubt he was drafting for players that would excel in a 3-4 defense either.

 

[Magooch]

I too was looking at that draft, players taken in the first round, before and after LVN. As with every draft, there were players that were busts, booms and still unknown. LVN is probably more in the still unknown but closer to bust (for a #13 pic).

JSN is a great WR and seeing that he was the 20th pick in the draft, a major hit for Schneider and the Seahawks. That said, I honestly don't know if I would want JSN and his $42.15M/year contract. That is a lot of cheddar to pay 1 player, 1 WR. Which also makes me wonder about Christian Watson and his agents demands are for a new contract. I love having solid WR's, but the Packers 2025 group were all on rookie or low end deals and they did pretty well. Paying 1 WR that kind of money, just seems foolish.

That’s crazy $$ for a non QB. He’s making $12Mil more yearly over Sam Darnold’s deal. They stole Darnold and that’s what really enabled them to do this. The Contract $ imo should be reversed. Their QB should’ve gotten that contract and vise versa

JSN Deal is actually quite similar to Micah Parsons. I think the guaranteed was identical. I’d rather have Parsons if given a choice though.

Yeah, great player, but I would have an awfully hard time handing out that kind of money, too.
Of course, at the same time that's a problem you'd love to have. I'd much rather be here debating "Should we extend our 2023 first-round pick for 40m+ per year" instead of "Should we even pick up our 2023 first-round pick's 5th-year option at all?"

But, it is what it is. What's done is done. Unfortunately it probably makes a potential Watson deal all the more complicated. Pierce at 29m/yr sets the absolute floor and this deal probably has Watson and his camp ready to ask for 35m/yr.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Watson and his camp ready to ask for 35m/yr.

When I see that kind of number, it just reaffirms to me that the Packers would be overpaying for a guy, just because they consider him their current #1 WR. I think Romeo Doubs was overpaid by the Patriots, yet they are "only" paying him less than 1/2 of that ($17M/year). I will take 2 Romeo's to 1 Christian. I would also prefer spreading the money around my core WR group of 3, rather than give the lions share to just 1 guy. A guy that has also had injury issues throughout his career.

The Packers spent a first round pick on Golden for a reason. He has 3-4 years left on his rookie deal, let him Reed, Wicks and whomever else step up and get the yardage that is there every season. Watson is good, but far from great, keep him 1 more year or trade him before the deadline. If you let him walk in Free Agency, you might pick up a nice comp pick.

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[tynimiller]

When I see that kind of number, it just reaffirms to me that the Packers would be overpaying for a guy, just because they consider him their current #1 WR. I think Romeo Doubs was overpaid by the Patriots, yet they are "only" paying him less than 1/2 of that ($17M/year). I will take 2 Romeo's to 1 Christian. I would also prefer spreading the money around my core WR group of 3, rather than give the lions share to just 1 guy. A guy that has also had injury issues throughout his career.

The Packers spent a first round pick on Golden for a reason. He has 3-4 years left on his rookie deal, let him Reed, Wicks and whomever else step up and get the yardage that is there every season. Watson is good, but far from great, keep him 1 more year or trade him before the deadline. If you let him walk in Free Agency, you might pick up a nice comp pick.

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To be fair I've grown to realize a few things are certain: taxes, I love good cigars and Poker always thinks a contract is too big LOL (kidding...well kinda)

Say Watson signs a deal that averages out to that. I'd have to see the structure of it before commenting but in truth I think both things can be said and be true likely - it is fair market value it seems or about AND someone disagree with it being something we should do.

 

[Magooch]

I really don't know what I would do with Watson. I really like him and he's great for our offense when he's available. I know we don't want to have a lame duck situation but part of me says to let him play out the year on this contract and adjust accordingly at the end of the season. If he misses another 5 games this coming season and some other team wants to sign him for 35m a year, they can take on that risk. On the other hand if he stays healthy and has a good season, then that's likely good for the team one way or the other. If he stays, we got a good year out of him and will offer a good contract, if he goes...we still got a good year out of him and will free up some room that we wouldn't have had otherwise. I'd rather him be here than not but I just have a hard time convincing myself to sign on to a huge long term deal and trusting that his long term health is going to be reliable (esp. when you consider like with JSN it's something like 120m guaranteed right there. That is almost as concerning as the AAV)

All that said though it depends on what the cap does too. I'm always of the mind that it's better to look at the percentage of cap going toward the contract rather than just the raw number

 

[Schultz]

I too was looking at that draft, players taken in the first round, before and after LVN. As with every draft, there were players that were busts, booms and still unknown. LVN is probably more in the still unknown but closer to bust (for a #13 pic).

JSN is a great WR and seeing that he was the 20th pick in the draft, a major hit for Schneider and the Seahawks. That said, I honestly don't know if I would want JSN and his $42.15M/year contract. That is a lot of cheddar to pay 1 player, 1 WR. Which also makes me wonder about Christian Watson and his agents demands are for a new contract. I love having solid WR's, but the Packers 2025 group were all on rookie or low end deals and they did pretty well. Paying 1 WR that kind of money, just seems foolish.

I agree that is too much for a WR, but I would have been fine with having JSN for 4 years on his rookie contract then either his 5th year option or getting a comp pick over what they have gotten out of LVN so far.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Makes some sense. Maybe we’re kinda seeing Gary for what he is, a very good player but not some game changer either.

I think Gute had that opportunity to acquire Parsons but might not have been perfect timing. Yet those Watt, Mack, Parsons, Maxx, types don’t come across our plate but once in a decade, if that. You swing for the bleachers and ask questions later.

I think you’re right though Joe, once we landed Micah it stresses the Cap and you can’t have $65Mil yearly tied up in 2 players. It’s essentially “buying” your way into a pass Rush instead of using a mix of coaching and development of young players. For me it leaves a superficial feel to roster building. It’s artificially generated and might work on a SB caliber season for 1yr etc. Now Rashan kinda acted a good part temporarily or earlier in 2025, but then reverted back to his normal self. Gary can have games where he’s dominant, but he’s just plain not consistent enough.

I do think our team sees LVN at a comparable level to Gary, but still more raw and slightly better top end.

Agree with all OS. I think Parsons still needs time to blend in with his teammates, and that just takes time, talent aside.

I'd love to see Parsons, McDuffie, Hopper and Franklin become one of the mosty productive LB groups in the NFL. Cooper has shown us some brilliant play, and this year I expect he pulls it all together along with the other guys. Franklin is a bit of a mystery, and on paper not as good as the departed QW, but he'll be good enough.

As for the cap and Gluten's low involvement in FA, I think there are two parts to it. First, and other than CB, the team didn't need flashy, young, and talented players. CB didn't look at all that great in FA, and after the swing and miss on Hobbs, Gluten played it relatively safe and signed Juste. He seems like JAG at CB, but a. hange of scenerey can do wonders. That's fine w/me. And when Parsons gets back, the CBs don't need to play lights out for the D to be very, very good.

Second, Gluten always plays the long game. He'll get comp picks in 2027 for losing Doubs, Q Walker, Jenkins and R Walker. Still no first round pick next year, but Gluten will be armed with a number of mid-range draft picks, and he's pretty good drafting farhter down anyway. And he'll save cap money for when it can be better used.

As for LVN, he's played two seasons, so he's not raw anymore and has showed flashes, just not consistent. He certainly looks like an elite Edge guy, but that appearance disappears due to his inflexible hips. I hope that was worked on in the offseason and he gets some good advice on how to stretch. With just a bit more bend, he could become very good at pressues and sacks. God knows the team needs it this year.

 

[CarryTheG14]

That’s crazy $$ for a non QB. He’s making $12Mil more yearly over Sam Darnold’s deal. They stole Darnold and that’s what really enabled them to do this. The Contract $ imo should be reversed. Their QB should’ve gotten that contract and vise versa

JSN Deal is actually quite similar to Micah Parsons. I think the guaranteed was identical. I’d rather have Parsons if given a choice though.

Without even thinking twice.

I really hope Gute takes a speculative swing with LVN. I think he's prime for a breakout.

 

[gopkrs]

I really don't know what I would do with Watson. I really like him and he's great for our offense when he's available. I know we don't want to have a lame duck situation but part of me says to let him play out the year on this contract and adjust accordingly at the end of the season. If he misses another 5 games this coming season and some other team wants to sign him for 35m a year, they can take on that risk. On the other hand if he stays healthy and has a good season, then that's likely good for the team one way or the other. If he stays, we got a good year out of him and will offer a good contract, if he goes...we still got a good year out of him and will free up some room that we wouldn't have had otherwise. I'd rather him be here than not but I just have a hard time convincing myself to sign on to a huge long term deal and trusting that his long term health is going to be reliable (esp. when you consider like with JSN it's something like 120m guaranteed right there. That is almost as concerning as the AAV)

All that said though it depends on what the cap does too. I'm always of the mind that it's better to look at the percentage of cap going toward the contract rather than just the raw number

Yes. That sounds good. Though if he's playing well and staying healthy; probably sign him halfway into next season.