2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[Heyjoe4]

What does JAG mean? I think "Just Another Guy" implies that a player is average. Most anybody else could show a similar productivity.

With LVN, who do you compare him to in order to judge whether he's below, at, or above average? His peers in the first round? The other 64 starting outside pass rushers?

Another way to judge him would be to compare team stats with and without him. It would be easy to show Parsons' impact that way.

To me, whether LVN is a JAG isn't the right question. I think it would be charitable to call him average so far but its his potential that's the key issue. One thing is quite certain. We won't be having this discussion next year. Season 4 for LVN will make or break him. If he plays well, he'll be kept around for season 5. If he can't up his game, he'll likely wash out and be gone after his rookie deal is done.

Good questions Sanguine, thanks. Yeah calling LVN "average" is being charitable. After three years he has shown us, I think, all he has to offer.

So, to your point, this will indeed be a make-or-break year for him. I certainly hope he can improve dramatically, and maybe with Gary gone, he'll step up. I don't see it, but the team could certainly benefit if he lives up to his pre-draft hype.

 

[tynimiller]

Good questions Sanguine, thanks. Yeah calling LVN "average" is being charitable. After three years he has shown us, I think, all he has to offer.

So, to your point, this will indeed be a make-or-break year for him. I certainly hope he can improve dramatically, and maybe with Gary gone, he'll step up. I don't see it, but the team could certainly benefit if he lives up to his pre-draft hype.

Before I unpack my thoughts more I'm curious - what do you think of Enagbare?

 

[Heyjoe4]

Sorry but unless JAG means something quite different to you than me - LVN is far from just a JAG

Yeah, "average" is a better word to use.

Seriously, and putting descriptors aside, when has LVN stood out as a premier DE in the NFL? What are his stats on pressures and sacks? I watch all the games, and barely noticed him. Maybe I'm missing something. Quite possible.

In fairness, he was injured for a good amount of time this season. But it's his third year and he still can't escape his concrete-like, inflexible hips. He just doesn't have the "bend" required of an elite rusher.

I would really like to be wrong about him, so this will be a huge year for him. And it's not that I see him as not worthy of the NFL. He is. But the fact that he plays regularly for the Packers says more about the Packers overall weak pass rush, sans Parsons, than it says about LVN.

If the Packers had to pick up his fifth year option now, I'm certain they'd decline. Hopefully 2026 will bring better things.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Before I unpack my thoughts more I'm curious - what do you think of Enagbare?

I like Engabare. He was a value pick, and he seems to be involved at some point in every game. He's not an All Pro, but I think he makes the DL better and his play seems consistent.

Back to LVN for a second, I'd say the same thing. Best to drop use of "JAG", too many different interpretations and I should not have used it. But Engabare is certainly a better value than LVN.

That said, what do you think of Engabare? "Unpack" away.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I think we need to remember LVN missed a ton of time. If I remember he only played over 35% snaps in 6 games. He either played sparingly, was injured or missed the other 11 games. His more typical snap count on Defense is around 50%+

Good point OS. LVN did not play a lot this year. So it's not a good measure of his play. Or maybe he played better than expected, given his injuries. I don't know. I didn't see it.

The upcoming season, his fourth, will be huge for him and for the D. I'd like to see him become the guy we thought he was when he was drafted at #12 overall. I'm pulling for him. I just don't see him as an elite talent at DE. We can disagree on that.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Somewhat surprising to me, PFF had LVN grading out for 2025 as 27th out of 115 qualified EDGE players

Thanks Magooch. This is surprising. I don't know how PFF grades, but PFF overall has a good reputation. I wonder how they accounted for his time lost to injury.

One thing that wasn't covered a lot in the news, LVN did finish the season on a high note. He played very well against the Bears, and that's certainly important going forward.

So here's to LVN having a very strong season in 2026. If Gary does leave, LVN should get a starting job, something he hasn't had yet.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Good questions Sanguine, thanks. Yeah calling LVN "average" is being charitable. After three years he has shown us, I think, all he has to offer.

So, to your point, this will indeed be a make-or-break year for him. I certainly hope he can improve dramatically, and maybe with Gary gone, he'll step up. I don't see it, but the team could certainly benefit if he lives up to his pre-draft hype.

In 43 career games LVN has 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. Add those up and divide by the number of games gives the production ratio. .59

A production ratio of 1.0 is considered to be above average and a worthy goal. He has a ways to go. Perhaps he'll turn out to be like Nick Perry. Really good against the run and an occasional force in the passing game. I doubt given his trajectory so far that's he's going to be the full time pass rusher across from Parsons. The other guys like Sorrel, Oliver and Cox are probably going to get their snaps too at the expense of LVN.

 

[tynimiller]

I like Engabare. He was a value pick, and he seems to be involved at some point in every game. He's not an All Pro, but I think he makes the DL better and his play seems consistent.

Back to LVN for a second, I'd say the same thing. Best to drop use of "JAG", too many different interpretations and I should not have used it. But Engabare is certainly a better value than LVN.

That said, what do you think of Engabare? "Unpack" away.

So you think Enagbare is better value to the team?

LVN has been a better and more consistent presence than Enagbare for the last two years. I would argue LVN, especially from Week 12 on (once he was healthy and not playing hurt) he was our best edge defender out there not named Parsons (week 12 and 13).

Anyone that has the time I'd encourage some All22 and watch LVN solely especially In the Baltimore and Chicago WC games as it was clear from his snap count (47 both games) he was finally not on a pitch count (had 22 and 26 the games prior)...in those two games that the defense focused more on him than he'd likely ever experienced recently (Parsons out and Gary just playing average) LVN put together some amazing games. There were some plays crashed by him which were special. I remember a few times in the game thread I would point out plays he was causing by his motor at times, strength at times and quickness at times.

Parsons saw Double Teams 56.68% according to PFF state from early January (HERE)...Gary saw it 37.56% and Enagbare 37.67%. Opposition double teamed LVN 45.64%
Chipped help seen by these guys Parsons - | Gary 19.95% | Enagbare 14.88% | LVN 13.42%
Triple Teams - Parsons 12.09% | Gary 4.40% | Enagbare 2.33% | LVN 8.05%

Oppositions knew/know how good LVN is and the threat to the offense he is, but fans just don't see it is all.

LVN has been immensely more value to the Packers when able to play in the edge room than anyone not named Micah this past year.

Incase some are wondering a few breakdowns of guys of the above rates...INCLUDES 4 OF THE TOP 5 SACK LEADERS 2025:

Few notables that saw lower double rate and triple rate than LVN
Aidan Hutchinson - Chipped 20.59% | Doubled 42.73% | Tripled 5.88%
Danielle Hunter - Chipped 20.53% | Doubled 44.97% | Tripled 6.98%
Travon Walker - Chipped 10.30% | Doubled 43.33% | Tripled 6.36%
Brian Burns - Chipped 14.35% | Doubled 33.55% | Tripled 1.99%
Joey Bosa - Chipped 15.72% | Doubled 33.96% | Tripled 4.4%
Nik Bonitto - Chipped 14.07% | Doubled 30.62% | Tripled 2.96%

Few that saw more in all three or almost:
Myles Garrett - Chipped 26.07% | Doubled 59.06% | Tripled 8.15% (.10% higher than LVN)
Micah Parsons - Shared above
Shemar Stewart - Chipped 5.06% | Doubled 51.12% | 8.99%
Maxx Crosby - Chipped 15.97% | Doubled 47.70% | 6.79%


I understand most folks when judging edges, whether we admit it or not, just pull up sack productions or pressure productions and judge the player away. Fact is that can illuminate who the biggest impact guys are, but it greatly clouds the judgement of a lot of solid and well respected by DC players that absolutely are solid edges. You don't double or triple a JAG to the degree LVN sees regardless of any other factor.

Imagine a world where the NLF Draft is a secret and private thing - fans are only told the players added but not the pick. Perhaps than we'd have a much fairer way of judging a player's value to the team - because we all struggle to separate grading the player and not mixing in the value of what he "cost us in the draft".

Is it a risk to place the 5th year tag on him - absolutely. It's a lot of money given the premium position he is. HOWEVER, that's likely why I'd love to see them do the Love "5th year" tactic or how they kept Watson through a one year extension instead of 5th year option - distribute some of the hit to the 2025 cap, essentially put the same money in his pocket as a 5th year would have cost and from a player perspective it is better than if they did pick up 5th year...at least now more money a year sooner.

Has he been good enough for a clean 5th year option - personally I say no. Has he been good, absolutely. Which is why I'd try to do the one year extension instead of 5th year option thing.

 

[Heyjoe4]

In 43 career games LVN has 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. Add those up and divide by the number of games gives the production ratio. .59

A production ratio of 1.0 is considered to be above average and a worthy goal. He has a ways to go. Perhaps he'll turn out to be like Nick Perry. Really good against the run and an occasional force in the passing game. I doubt given his trajectory so far that's he's going to be the full time pass rusher across from Parsons. The other guys like Sorrel, Oliver and Cox are probably going to get their snaps too at the expense of LVN.

Thanks for the stats. In his three years in GB, LVN has not been a starter. I hope that changes for him and the Packers next season.

 

[tynimiller]

In 43 career games LVN has 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss. Add those up and divide by the number of games gives the production ratio. .59

A production ratio of 1.0 is considered to be above average and a worthy goal. He has a ways to go. Perhaps he'll turn out to be like Nick Perry. Really good against the run and an occasional force in the passing game. I doubt given his trajectory so far that's he's going to be the full time pass rusher across from Parsons. The other guys like Sorrel, Oliver and Cox are probably going to get their snaps too at the expense of LVN.

Just for further statistical observations, including all games LVN has 13 sacks, 69 pressures on 672 Pass Rush Snaps or 1.9% sack rate and 10.2% pressure rate (Per PFF).

Just comparing that to a few various levels of edge guys GB fans would know or recognize more so:

Parsons - 73 sacks, 431 pressures on 2,291 pass rush snaps or 3.2% sack rate and 18.8% pressure rate
Gary - 56 sacks, 362 pressures on 2,504 pass rush snaps or 2.2% sack rate and 14.4% pressure rate
Enagbare - 13 sacks, 103 pressures on 1,074 pass rush snaps or 1.2% sack rate and 9.6% pressure rate
Preston Smith - 84 sacks, 448 pressures on 4,276 pass rush snaps or 2.0% sack rate and 10.5% pressure rate
Zadarius Smith - 83 sacks, 528 pressures on 4,077 pass rush snaps or 2.0% sack rate and 13% pressure rate

Some of the elite of elite edges in NFL
Danielle Hunter - 128 sacks, 674 pressures on 4,971 pass rush snaps or 2.6% sack rate and 13.6% pressure rate
Maxx Crosby - 77 sacks, 483 pressures on 3,927 pass rush snaps or 2.0% sack rate and 12.2% pressure rate
Brian Burns - 73 sacks, 360 pressures on 3,016 pass rush snaps or 2.4% sack rate and 11.9% pressure rate
Myles Garrett - 135 sacks, 623 pressures on 4,330 pass rush snaps or 3.1% sack rate and 14.4% pressure rate
Nik Bonito - 44 sacks, 207 pressures on 1,336 pass rush snaps or 3.3% sack rate and 15.5% pressure rate
Aidan Hutchinson - 49 sacks, 319 pressures on 2,104 pass rush snaps or 2.3% sack rate and 15.2% pressure rate
Trey Hendrickson - 94 sacks, 459 pressures on 3,203 pass rush snaps or 2.9% sack rate and 14.3% pressure rate

Some of the consensus solid to great and/or recent PAID edges
George Karlaftis - 42 sacks, 274 pressures on 2,238 pass rush snaps or 1.9% sack rate and 18.8% pressure rate
Harold Landry - 66 sacks, 352 pressures on 3,471 pass rush snaps or 1.9% sack rate and 10.1% pressure rate
Andrew Van Ginkel - 43 sacks, 209 pressures on 1,668 pass rush snaps or 2.6% sack rate and 12.5% pressure rate
Hasson Red**** - 75 sacks, 372 pressures on 2,954 pass rush snaps or 2.5% sack rate and 12.6% pressure rate
AJ Epenesa - 27 sacks, 158 pressures on 1,642 pass rush snaps or 1.6% sack rate and 9.6% pressure rate
Kyle Van Noy - 66 sacks, 386 pressures on 3,128 pass rush snaps or 2.1% sack rate and 12.3% pressure rate
Yetur Gross-Matos - 19 sacks, 116 pressures on 1,458 pass rush snaps or 1.3% sack rate and 7.9% pressure rate

If all you do is blindly look at sacks and pressures to bestow a price or value to a guy LVN right now if extended would caost you somewhere in the $10M/Yr or so range up to like $15M/Yr

Primary guys looked at for this takeaway:
Van Noy (older player) - $4.5M/Yr
Gross-Matos - $9M/Yr
Epenesa - $6M/Yr
Landry - $14.5M/Yr
Red**** - $14M/Yr (one year deal tho)



I also broke down the frequency many edges saw double teams, triple teams and chips. It will amaze folks how often LVN is a targeted person by offenses to stop. Encourage folks look at that post up above a few.

 

[tynimiller]

FTR I still think per snap analysis is needed because games can be incredibly dishonest for a guy. Could see two snaps due to an injury or even a disqualification or what not. I want to know per snap what a guy is delivering.

 

[Heyjoe4]

So you think Enagbare is better value to the team?

LVN has been a better and more consistent presence than Enagbare for the last two years. I would argue LVN, especially from Week 12 on (once he was healthy and not playing hurt) he was our best edge defender out there not named Parsons (week 12 and 13).

Anyone that has the time I'd encourage some All22 and watch LVN solely especially In the Baltimore and Chicago WC games as it was clear from his snap count (47 both games) he was finally not on a pitch count (had 22 and 26 the games prior)...in those two games that the defense focused more on him than he'd likely ever experienced recently (Parsons out and Gary just playing average) LVN put together some amazing games. There were some plays crashed by him which were special. I remember a few times in the game thread I would point out plays he was causing by his motor at times, strength at times and quickness at times.

Parsons saw Double Teams 56.68% according to PFF state from early January (HERE)...Gary saw it 37.56% and Enagbare 37.67%. Opposition double teamed LVN 45.64%
Chipped help seen by these guys Parsons - | Gary 19.95% | Enagbare 14.88% | LVN 13.42%
Triple Teams - Parsons 12.09% | Gary 4.40% | Enagbare 2.33% | LVN 8.05%

Oppositions knew/know how good LVN is and the threat to the offense he is, but fans just don't see it is all.

LVN has been immensely more value to the Packers when able to play in the edge room than anyone not named Micah this past year.

Incase some are wondering a few breakdowns of guys of the above rates...INCLUDES 4 OF THE TOP 5 SACK LEADERS 2025:

Few notables that saw lower double rate and triple rate than LVN
Aidan Hutchinson - Chipped 20.59% | Doubled 42.73% | Tripled 5.88%
Danielle Hunter - Chipped 20.53% | Doubled 44.97% | Tripled 6.98%
Travon Walker - Chipped 10.30% | Doubled 43.33% | Tripled 6.36%
Brian Burns - Chipped 14.35% | Doubled 33.55% | Tripled 1.99%
Joey Bosa - Chipped 15.72% | Doubled 33.96% | Tripled 4.4%
Nik Bonitto - Chipped 14.07% | Doubled 30.62% | Tripled 2.96%

Few that saw more in all three or almost:
Myles Garrett - Chipped 26.07% | Doubled 59.06% | Tripled 8.15% (.10% higher than LVN)
Micah Parsons - Shared above
Shemar Stewart - Chipped 5.06% | Doubled 51.12% | 8.99%
Maxx Crosby - Chipped 15.97% | Doubled 47.70% | 6.79%


I understand most folks when judging edges, whether we admit it or not, just pull up sack productions or pressure productions and judge the player away. Fact is that can illuminate who the biggest impact guys are, but it greatly clouds the judgement of a lot of solid and well respected by DC players that absolutely are solid edges. You don't double or triple a JAG to the degree LVN sees regardless of any other factor.

Imagine a world where the NLF Draft is a secret and private thing - fans are only told the players added but not the pick. Perhaps than we'd have a much fairer way of judging a player's value to the team - because we all struggle to separate grading the player and not mixing in the value of what he "cost us in the draft".

Is it a risk to place the 5th year tag on him - absolutely. It's a lot of money given the premium position he is. HOWEVER, that's likely why I'd love to see them do the Love "5th year" tactic or how they kept Watson through a one year extension instead of 5th year option - distribute some of the hit to the 2025 cap, essentially put the same money in his pocket as a 5th year would have cost and from a player perspective it is better than if they did pick up 5th year...at least now more money a year sooner.

Has he been good enough for a clean 5th year option - personally I say no. Has he been good, absolutely. Which is why I'd try to do the one year extension instead of 5th year option thing.

LVN did play well since game 12 to the end of the season, with an good game against the Bears in the WC loss. Over the course of three seasons, that's a small sample - but he's trending up.

And draft position, fairly or unfairly, goes a long way in how people determine "value". I don't know the stats, but I'm pretty sure a lot of guys drafted in the 1st round don't go on to become impact players or even starters.

Negotiating a fifth year contract, ala Watson, seems like the best way to keep LVN. It's unlikley Gary will be back, and LVN gets a shot at starting and a higher snap count. And that will depend on who Gluten adds to the DEs in FA. Finding a starter in the draft seems like a long shot.

LVN will get his chance next year. I hope he makes the most of it.

 

[tynimiller]

I'll also add to the already two lengthy provision of statistics for LVN.

Yes he missed time this year but he ended the year:

22nd out of 124 edge defenders in pass rush win rate
4th in stop rate against the run (classified as tackles resulting in failure for the offense)

Compared to the last 17 edge rushers who had their fifth year picked up:
Had a pass rush win rate of 16.19% - LVN had one of 16.2%
Had a pass rush productivity PRP of 8.34 - LVN had one of 9
Averaged a sack every 50.63 snaps - LVN every 51.69

The best three that didn't have their fifth year picked up of late:
Chase Young who had a win rate of just 11.7%
Clelin Ferrell who had a PRP of 7.8
Zaven Collins who averaged a sack every 71.5

In fairness when looking at sack total, he would be one of the lower to outlier guys - only really Marcus Davenport having less since 2018 AND have their fifth year option picked up.

The main reason his number totals don't look as good as his actual production when in is the simple fact he hasn't seen the usage of many of the others - with just two regular season starts in his career and three total including WC.

 

[tynimiller]

Again, I must stress because based on past exchanges - many are going to take all of my posts as if I think LVN is incredible or a no-brainer 5th year option recipient (roughly $15M figure). While yes if it is a yes or no situation I'd lean yes, but that is more impacted by the fact Parsons won't be back, Gary's cliff might be here and Enagbare is a FA.

I still would love to see us not do a 5th year option but do a one year extension shifting his burdens to look like this:

2024 - Cap Hit is $5,532,575
2025 - W/Option $15,000,000

Extension:
2024 - $10,300,000
2025 - $10,300,000

Could even use void money to go say one year out (nothing crazy...). IF he hits that little bit won't matter but if not, eating 3-4 Million in 2026 is not a deal breaker.

 

[Voyageur]

Fans see plays that make a splash. The names of the players who make them are what they remember. In the NFL that's not a good way of judging how good a player is.

Van Ness is a much better player than most people realize. He's not splashy so it appears he's doing very little. On the contrary, he's exceptionally good on maintaining containment to the outside and knows how to gain that outside leverage against one or even two blockers. That might not show as a stat on Monday, and it doesn't get his name called often but rest assured, the way he plays is instrumental on how well the defense plays. I'm not saying he's in the top 10, but I'm saying he's in the top 30 to 35. That's based on the intangibles that most fans never see because it isn't splashy.

 

[Sanguine camper]

FTR I still think per snap analysis is needed because games can be incredibly dishonest for a guy. Could see two snaps due to an injury or even a disqualification or what not. I want to know per snap what a guy is delivering.

Hard to know which way is better in evaluating production. Games or per snap? If a player is making a big impact, they're going to get a lot of snaps so each way should show similar results.

If a player is losing a lot of snaps to other players on the team because he's not elevating himself over those second stringers, then the per game evaluation could certainly be more biased by a lack of playing time. In other words, if your playing time is limited, your per game results are going to suffer.

I would tend to favor the per game evaluation because ultimately, its the cumulative impact you make on all the plays. At some point, the per snap impact makes less and less of a difference, the fewer the snaps.

 

[tynimiller]

Hard to know which way is better in evaluating production. Games or per snap? If a player is making a big impact, they're going to get a lot of snaps so each way should show similar results.

If a player is losing a lot of snaps to other players on the team because he's not elevating himself over those second stringers, then the per game evaluation could certainly be more biased by a lack of playing time. In other words, if your playing time is limited, your per game results are going to suffer.

I would tend to favor the per game evaluation because ultimately, its the cumulative impact you make on all the plays. At some point, the per snap impact makes less and less of a difference, the fewer the snaps.

Simply not true (I at least don't think this is opinion either) that if they're productive they'll see a lot of snaps. Many teams don't push rookies out there into 40-50 snaps a game level, but that doesn't mean they are not highly productive when in there. Others suffer from injuries which can cause their per game or just overall sack totals be a little (or a lot) dishonest on just how productive the player really is when in.

I have no problem with someone choosing to present evaluations by a per game total, I'll just almost always present per snap figures usuallly especially if there is a reason why it isn't apples to apples persay possibly.

One of LVN's strongest production is how stout he is in stop rates against the run (deemed fourth best in the league for edge guys). There has been without question some games a clear rotation of him in for first and second downs and then out on pass play situations for rest. That has changed of late given his health is from all my sources about as good as it has been in over a calendar year, but just the sheer fact we were without Parsons as well. A guy playing the run that well and a relatively solid pass rush win rate of 16.2% is a guy I'm betting on at WORST continues to be productive and solid - with the chance of becoming one of those guys that fans begin to acknowledge and not just the league (review how defenses handle him post I made earlier), advanced analytic sites and a few football nutjob fans that watch deeper...of course there is a chance he is what he is and will never become more.

 

[Voyageur]

Simply not true (I at least don't think this is opinion either) that if they're productive they'll see a lot of snaps. Many teams don't push rookies out there into 40-50 snaps a game level, but that doesn't mean they are not highly productive when in there. Others suffer from injuries which can cause their per game or just overall sack totals be a little (or a lot) dishonest on just how productive the player really is when in.

I have no problem with someone choosing to present evaluations by a per game total, I'll just almost always present per snap figures usuallly especially if there is a reason why it isn't apples to apples persay possibly.

One of LVN's strongest production is how stout he is in stop rates against the run (deemed fourth best in the league for edge guys). There has been without question some games a clear rotation of him in for first and second downs and then out on pass play situations for rest. That has changed of late given his health is from all my sources about as good as it has been in over a calendar year, but just the sheer fact we were without Parsons as well. A guy playing the run that well and a relatively solid pass rush win rate of 16.2% is a guy I'm betting on at WORST continues to be productive and solid - with the chance of becoming one of those guys that fans begin to acknowledge and not just the league (review how defenses handle him post I made earlier), advanced analytic sites and a few football nutjob fans that watch deeper...of course there is a chance he is what he is and will never become more.

This confirms what I was saying about Van Ness being excellent on outside containment. Most people don't see that, they just take it for granted but in reality, being as good as he is tells the story of his value. When that's your primary objective, you don't see too many sacks, or QB hurries because you're not supposed to be playing defense inside the offensive tackles, but outside, to ensure that a runner, or the QB can't scoot outside. Your job is to turn them in, to the teeth of your defense.

Not all fans are as a-n-a-l as some of us, and don't see that facet of the game because they don't experience it either as a player or coach. It's one of the nuances of the game that is often missed, not because the fans don't understand the game, but they don't see the choreography of it. Blame most of that on the TV cameras, and the fact that when watching the game, people concentrate on the ball, and what's happening with it. They rarely even glimpse the actions of play away from the ball, often outside the purview of the cameras.

Then, when an announcer starts talking about all the little technical nuances, way too many fans don't understand what they're saying, and they say the announcer is a lousy announcer. The problem is, they don't understand what he's trying to convey and think he's not too good at his job.

Anyhow, that's my opinion.

 

[tynimiller]

This confirms what I was saying about Van Ness being excellent on outside containment. Most people don't see that, they just take it for granted but in reality, being as good as he is tells the story of his value. When that's your primary objective, you don't see too many sacks, or QB hurries because you're not supposed to be playing defense inside the offensive tackles, but outside, to ensure that a runner, or the QB can't scoot outside. Your job is to turn them in, to the teeth of your defense.

Not all fans are as a-n-a-l as some of us, and don't see that facet of the game because they don't experience it either as a player or coach. It's one of the nuances of the game that is often missed, not because the fans don't understand the game, but they don't see the choreography of it. Blame most of that on the TV cameras, and the fact that when watching the game, people concentrate on the ball, and what's happening with it. They rarely even glimpse the actions of play away from the ball, often outside the purview of the cameras.

Then, when an announcer starts talking about all the little technical nuances, way too many fans don't understand what they're saying, and they say the announcer is a lousy announcer. The problem is, they don't understand what he's trying to convey and think he's not too good at his job.

Anyhow, that's my opinion.

That bolded line is GOLD!

My dad and brother always get mad at me because I always want to point out the obscure seal block by a tackle or Watson on the outside in a game that made the big play or the touchdown possible. I'm more impressed with Watson smashing an edge defender inside so Jacobs can run clear to the second level than I am that Jacobs ran clean for ten yards...

 

[Heyjoe4]

Simply not true (I at least don't think this is opinion either) that if they're productive they'll see a lot of snaps. Many teams don't push rookies out there into 40-50 snaps a game level, but that doesn't mean they are not highly productive when in there. Others suffer from injuries which can cause their per game or just overall sack totals be a little (or a lot) dishonest on just how productive the player really is when in.

I have no problem with someone choosing to present evaluations by a per game total, I'll just almost always present per snap figures usuallly especially if there is a reason why it isn't apples to apples persay possibly.

One of LVN's strongest production is how stout he is in stop rates against the run (deemed fourth best in the league for edge guys). There has been without question some games a clear rotation of him in for first and second downs and then out on pass play situations for rest. That has changed of late given his health is from all my sources about as good as it has been in over a calendar year, but just the sheer fact we were without Parsons as well. A guy playing the run that well and a relatively solid pass rush win rate of 16.2% is a guy I'm betting on at WORST continues to be productive and solid - with the chance of becoming one of those guys that fans begin to acknowledge and not just the league (review how defenses handle him post I made earlier), advanced analytic sites and a few football nutjob fans that watch deeper...of course there is a chance he is what he is and will never become more.

You were pretty clear in earlier posts that you didn't support extending LVN's 5th year option. Ideally, they give him a fifth-year contract that is similar to what they did with Watson.

I do hope LVN starts next season where he left off. My concern with him is that in his three years he has never been a starter. Right or wrong, expectations are higher for guys selected high in the draft.

I don't care that much if a first round guy doesn't become a starter, as long as he's shows improvement from year to year and is getting more and more snaps. The run stats for LVN are interesting, and better than I would have guessed.

Gluten will add a highly-rated DT or DE in FA - IF he can find one. It seems likely Gary won't be back. LVN will get plenty of opportunities next season. I'm not as high on him as you and some others - but we certainly all want him to be wildly successful at DE. He has a decent shot at becoming a starter in 2026.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This confirms what I was saying about Van Ness being excellent on outside containment. Most people don't see that, they just take it for granted but in reality, being as good as he is tells the story of his value. When that's your primary objective, you don't see too many sacks, or QB hurries because you're not supposed to be playing defense inside the offensive tackles, but outside, to ensure that a runner, or the QB can't scoot outside. Your job is to turn them in, to the teeth of your defense.

Not all fans are as a-n-a-l as some of us, and don't see that facet of the game because they don't experience it either as a player or coach. It's one of the nuances of the game that is often missed, not because the fans don't understand the game, but they don't see the choreography of it. Blame most of that on the TV cameras, and the fact that when watching the game, people concentrate on the ball, and what's happening with it. They rarely even glimpse the actions of play away from the ball, often outside the purview of the cameras.

Then, when an announcer starts talking about all the little technical nuances, way too many fans don't understand what they're saying, and they say the announcer is a lousy announcer. The problem is, they don't understand what he's trying to convey and think he's not too good at his job.

Anyhow, that's my opinion.

The trend for QBs is to be taller, a little heavier, and fast - at making decisions, and running. Think Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, CW, Jayden Daniels, Jackson.

So DEs are going to have to play contain and edge integrity a lot more. That means fewer pressures and sacks, but also keeps a QB from shredding a defense with his legs.

I haven't watched specifically, but my take is that the Packers play contain well. If LVN is solid in that regard, so much the better.

 

[Voyageur]

You were pretty clear in earlier posts that you didn't support extending LVN's 5th year option. Ideally, they give him a fifth-year contract that is similar to what they did with Watson.

I do hope LVN starts next season where he left off. My concern with him is that in his three years he has never been a starter. Right or wrong, expectations are higher for guys selected high in the draft.

I don't care that much if a first round guy doesn't become a starter, as long as he's shows improvement from year to year and is getting more and more snaps. The run stats for LVN are interesting, and better than I would have guessed.

Gluten will add a highly-rated DT or DE in FA - IF he can find one. It seems likely Gary won't be back. LVN will get plenty of opportunities next season. I'm not as high on him as you and some others - but we certainly all want him to be wildly successful at DE. He has a decent shot at becoming a starter in 2026.

Personally, I wouldn't extend Van Ness either. I'd get him inked to a 3–4-year deal that will keep him in the fold for an extended period of time. That big 5th year contract can be spread over 4 years in the process. But that's just my opinion.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Simply not true (I at least don't think this is opinion either) that if they're productive they'll see a lot of snaps. Many teams don't push rookies out there into 40-50 snaps a game level, but that doesn't mean they are not highly productive when in there. Others suffer from injuries which can cause their per game or just overall sack totals be a little (or a lot) dishonest on just how productive the player really is when in.

I have no problem with someone choosing to present evaluations by a per game total, I'll just almost always present per snap figures usuallly especially if there is a reason why it isn't apples to apples persay possibly.

One of LVN's strongest production is how stout he is in stop rates against the run (deemed fourth best in the league for edge guys). There has been without question some games a clear rotation of him in for first and second downs and then out on pass play situations for rest. That has changed of late given his health is from all my sources about as good as it has been in over a calendar year, but just the sheer fact we were without Parsons as well. A guy playing the run that well and a relatively solid pass rush win rate of 16.2% is a guy I'm betting on at WORST continues to be productive and solid - with the chance of becoming one of those guys that fans begin to acknowledge and not just the league (review how defenses handle him post I made earlier), advanced analytic sites and a few football nutjob fans that watch deeper...of course there is a chance he is what he is and will never become more.

When the Packers traded Preston Smith last year, LVN could've taken over as the full time outside pass rusher. That didn't happen. Most of Smith's snaps were distributed to other players. As the season wore on, Cox's snaps were going up.

There were games after Smith left that LVN was in the 25 snap range. Playing fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game shows the coaching staff wasn't enthralled with LVN's performance, even though he was in the second half of year two and should've been ready to go as a full-time starter rather than a roll player.

Part of the LVN evaluation or any top 15 pick is the return on investment. You just expect those players to better than average starters. If not, the opportunity cost is huge. That pick could've been used to fill another roster hole. So far, LVN 's 8.5 sacks and 17 TFL's isn't real impressive for three years work. There are certainly other ways to measure his performance but you don't pick a guy in the top 15 unless you think he's going to be a beast as a pass rusher. If he takes another jump like year 3, then he'll get his 5th year option. If he's at his ceiling, the high cost probably means he's gone after 2026.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If he takes another jump like year 3, then he'll get his 5th year option.

Again, the 5th year option has to be exercised by May 1st of this year on LVN. That 5th year option of an estimated $15M locks him down for 2027. The "problem" is, it also locks the Packers in for that $15M.

This isn't a no brainer either way for me. I can see arguments for and against exercising that 5th year option. I think a lot of it will depend on what the Packers do in Free Agency and the draft. As well as what they do with Gary and the coaches opinions on LVN's projected development.

 

[tynimiller]

When the Packers traded Preston Smith last year, LVN could've taken over as the full time outside pass rusher. That didn't happen. Most of Smith's snaps were distributed to other players. As the season wore on, Cox's snaps were going up.

There were games after Smith left that LVN was in the 25 snap range. Playing fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game shows the coaching staff wasn't enthralled with LVN's performance, even though he was in the second half of year two and should've been ready to go as a full-time starter rather than a roll player.

Part of the LVN evaluation or any top 15 pick is the return on investment. You just expect those players to better than average starters. If not, the opportunity cost is huge. That pick could've been used to fill another roster hole. So far, LVN 's 8.5 sacks and 17 TFL's isn't real impressive for three years work. There are certainly other ways to measure his performance but you don't pick a guy in the top 15 unless you think he's going to be a beast as a pass rusher. If he takes another jump like year 3, then he'll get his 5th year option. If he's at his ceiling, the high cost probably means he's gone after 2026.

Did you forget about his broken thumb in 2024? I don't know the precise number but the majority of the season saw him play with the inablity to actually use his one hand - which anyone who has played in the trenches or routinely watches it from a scouting or grading perspective knows that is massive.


Again the fifth year option decision or grading what type of player he is and projects to be IS NOT impacted by his draft position. That is grading the draft decision not the player now...and really grading the draft years later is slightly dishonest to the draft process because none of the information known a year, two years or three later was known at the time for the scouting departments and GMs.