2023 Round 1 Pick #13:Lukas Van Ness Edge

[OldSchool101]

We really have not had an adequate or ideal sample of LVN. When he’s out there it’s undeniable we’re better. However he’s either been playing <35% snaps (rotational) or just not on that field. In 3 seasons I’m not sure we have 17 games where’s he’s healthy and playing starters snap count. (Call it above 50%+ D snaps).

Personally I think when you spend a #13 overall that guy should be either playing 50%+ snaps or traded. This idea of using Luka’s as a backup rotational player is strange to me. You can get those guys in RD3-6 and they do plenty fine. Enagbare a perfect example.

I love Rashan Gary, but my feelings are he’s not playing within $5mil annual of his contract and I have a problem with that maybe I’m alone
My feeling is also that Lukas Van Ness is VERY similarly effective. I’m pairing Lukas and Cox Jr with Enagbare or Sorrell or Oliver competing behind them until (IF) when Parsons is full steam ahead. Then I’m going after the best interior Defender I can find with a #52 or #84 etc pick.

Love what Gary has done. That said this is not about my personal feelings for the guy. I can’t ignore our Company throwing $5-7mil of production into the wind each season (that’s imo his annual worth losses and no a $18mil guy isn’t bad)
All the while holding back our #13 overall because we are afraid to be proactive. Lukas is likely very close to Gary production. Let Lukas play for Heavens sake. He needs to know we have confidence that he can be a force. Scrape our $11mil if Gary won’t restructure and let’s go. We’ve got people to see. Places to go. Chicks to dig. Parties to crash. Quit holding us up!

 

[Heyjoe4]

When the Packers traded Preston Smith last year, LVN could've taken over as the full time outside pass rusher. That didn't happen. Most of Smith's snaps were distributed to other players. As the season wore on, Cox's snaps were going up.

There were games after Smith left that LVN was in the 25 snap range. Playing fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game shows the coaching staff wasn't enthralled with LVN's performance, even though he was in the second half of year two and should've been ready to go as a full-time starter rather than a roll player.

Part of the LVN evaluation or any top 15 pick is the return on investment. You just expect those players to better than average starters. If not, the opportunity cost is huge. That pick could've been used to fill another roster hole. So far, LVN 's 8.5 sacks and 17 TFL's isn't real impressive for three years work. There are certainly other ways to measure his performance but you don't pick a guy in the top 15 unless you think he's going to be a beast as a pass rusher. If he takes another jump like year 3, then he'll get his 5th year option. If he's at his ceiling, the high cost probably means he's gone after 2026.

"LVN 's 8.5 sacks and 17 TFL's" over three years - for any DE, these are pedestrian numbers. And in his three years, he hasn't been a starter. He has had what seem to be chronic injuries that keep him out of games. As it was with Watson, that's a problem.

He's a decent DE, not spectacular. He did play well from game 12 on last season. And if Gary is gone, LVN should, at a minimum, earn a staring job. Gluten will be in the FA market and looking for a starting DT or DE. That's a long shot, even if such a player were available, given cap space and more pressing needs at CB.

He is a very athletic guy, but still lacks the hip flexibility of starting/elite edge guys.

LVN is a serviceable DE for the Packers, and his numbers bear this out. This will be a big year for him if he can stay healthy. For his own good and the good of the team, I hope he advances to the next level.

 

[Heyjoe4]

We really have not had an adequate or ideal sample of LVN. When he’s out there it’s undeniable we’re better. However he’s either been playing <35% snaps (rotational) or just not on that field. In 3 seasons I’m not sure we have 17 games where’s he’s healthy and playing starters snap count. (Call it above 50%+ D snaps).

Personally I think when you spend a #13 overall that guy should be either playing 50%+ snaps or traded. This idea of using Luka’s as a backup rotational player is strange to me. You can get those guys in RD3-6 and they do plenty fine. Enagbare a perfect example.

I love Rashan Gary, but my feelings are he’s not playing within $5mil annual of his contract and I have a problem with that maybe I’m alone
My feeling is also that Lukas Van Ness is VERY similarly effective. I’m pairing Lukas and Cox Jr with Enagbare or Sorrell or Oliver competing behind them until (IF) when Parsons is full steam ahead. Then I’m going after the best interior Defender I can find with a #52 or #84 etc pick.

Love what Gary has done. That said this is not about my personal feelings for the guy. I can’t ignore our Company throwing $5-7mil of production into the wind each season (that’s imo his annual worth losses and no a $18mil guy isn’t bad)
All the while holding back our #13 overall because we are afraid to be proactive. Lukas is likely very close to Gary production. Let Lukas play for Heavens sake. He needs to know we have confidence that he can be a force. Scrape our $11mil if Gary won’t restructure and let’s go. We’ve got people to see. Places to go. Chicks to dig. Parties to crash. Quit holding us up!

"In 3 seasons I’m not sure we have 17 games where’s he’s healthy and playing starters snap count."

Good points. If your numbers are right, he's been available 33% of the time, although it seems he's played more than that. LVN hasn't been a starter in his 3 years, and injuries are always concerning.

 

[tynimiller]

"In 3 seasons I’m not sure we have 17 games where’s he’s healthy and playing starters snap count."

Good points. If your numbers are right, he's been available 33% of the time, although it seems he's played more than that. LVN hasn't been a starter in his 3 years, and injuries are always concerning.

Bare in mind most of 2024 he played through despite injury. Not 100% but out there and still being dependable in a limited and likely pitch count role.

 

[Heyjoe4]

When the Packers traded Preston Smith last year, LVN could've taken over as the full time outside pass rusher. That didn't happen. Most of Smith's snaps were distributed to other players. As the season wore on, Cox's snaps were going up.

There were games after Smith left that LVN was in the 25 snap range. Playing fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game shows the coaching staff wasn't enthralled with LVN's performance, even though he was in the second half of year two and should've been ready to go as a full-time starter rather than a roll player.

Part of the LVN evaluation or any top 15 pick is the return on investment. You just expect those players to better than average starters. If not, the opportunity cost is huge. That pick could've been used to fill another roster hole. So far, LVN 's 8.5 sacks and 17 TFL's isn't real impressive for three years work. There are certainly other ways to measure his performance but you don't pick a guy in the top 15 unless you think he's going to be a beast as a pass rusher. If he takes another jump like year 3, then he'll get his 5th year option. If he's at his ceiling, the high cost probably means he's gone after 2026.

You're right. I'm a little baffled by comments suggesting that draft position means very little.

As you note, there is an opportunity cost - the guy not picked because LVN was selected. Draft position is not always a great indicator of how well a guy will play in the NFL. Even so, at #12 there are a lot of very talented guys available. I have no doubt Gluten thought very highly of LVN and thought he was the BPA for the team.

Better players get passed over all the time. It's in the past and can't be changed. LVN should be looked at for what he has produced and what his availability has been like in 3 years. I'm not impressed, and I'm just going by the stats, and the unavoidable fact that he's never been a starter. He did end the season well, so there's hope.

That's enough about LVN. There should be consensus among us that we want him to have a great 2026.

I'll be interested by what Gluten can accomplish in the offseason. The top needs are two starting CBs and a starting DE or DT. That won't be easy, and FA is the best path, or improvement from someone already on the roster. There should be someone available with the second pick to help with one of these needs a well.

 

[tynimiller]

For the final time mainly the discussion surrounding LVN in this thread of recent days has been about the fifth year option and his value or level of player he has been. NONE of that is impacted or changes based on where he was drafted. If he was a fifth rounder, all my posts about his statistical breakdowns, rankings and injury discussions changes nothing.

Yes, if you asked me to grade his draft pick I'd be an A- | B-

A- if grading the pick based solely on knoweldge at the time of the draft only.

B- allowing hindsight to enter into the discussion.

 

[milani]

"LVN 's 8.5 sacks and 17 TFL's" over three years - for any DE, these are pedestrian numbers. And in his three years, he hasn't been a starter. He has had what seem to be chronic injuries that keep him out of games. As it was with Watson, that's a problem.

He's a decent DE, not spectacular. He did play well from game 12 on last season. And if Gary is gone, LVN should, at a minimum, earn a staring job. Gluten will be in the FA market and looking for a starting DT or DE. That's a long shot, even if such a player were available, given cap space and more pressing needs at CB.

He is a very athletic guy, but still lacks the hip flexibility of starting/elite edge guys.

LVN is a serviceable DE for the Packers, and his numbers bear this out. This will be a big year for him if he can stay healthy. For his own good and the good of the team, I hope he advances to the next level.

Would have been interesting if he had avoided injury when sacking Flacco.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Would have been interesting if he had avoided injury when sacking Flacco.

Yeah and it didn't look like he was hurt, at least not after the sack.

 

[Magooch]

Overall, I was mostly pleased with LVN this year. Hard to get a super accurate read with him missing a big chunk and Parsons going out injured but he was definitely trending the right way when he was healthy and Parsons was out there. He didn't have the huge volume due to missing time but by my count he finished the year with 27 pressures on 178 pass rushes. That's the 22nd best rate in the league. I don't think he is ever going to be the guy to "take over" a game if he doesn't have a player like Parsons out there with him, but that's not the worst thing ever. I guess my gut says he's not a "#1" or "elite" edge but can be a "high end" #2 if that makes sense.

To put it another way I would say if we assume good health for Parsons, I would be reasonably happy with LVN as the second option out there. Does that mean he is a 15m/yr player? probably not for me but what do I know. I would probably try and do a deal similar to how we handled Watson and get it spread out a year early.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would probably try and do a deal similar to how we handled Watson and get it spread out a year early.

So decline the 5th year option and work out a new deal in Sept?

Depending on what LVN and his agent want, I would try to hammer something out before May 1st. That way if the asking price is too high, you exercise the 5th year option and roll the dice. I think any new deal with LVN is going to include new money and new guaranteed money well over the $15M. Such a new deal should take into account that for 2026 he is only due $3.15M

 

[milani]

Yeah and it didn't look like he was hurt, at least not after the sack.

Right. I was there and he was celebrating. When he got to the sideline he was not smiling.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Again, the 5th year option has to be exercised by May 1st of this year on LVN. That 5th year option of an estimated $15M locks him down for 2027. The "problem" is, it also locks the Packers in for that $15M.

This isn't a no brainer either way for me. I can see arguments for and against exercising that 5th year option. I think a lot of it will depend on what the Packers do in Free Agency and the draft. As well as what they do with Gary and the coaches opinions on LVN's projected development.

True that the option comes sooner but if the team signs him to a 5th year option and year 4 is lackluster, he won't be around for year 5 as he'll be a cut candidate at that point. Would the Packers pay out the large sum of a 5th year option if he's only good for 3 sacks? Probably not. At that point, the 5th year option is a moot point. If LVN plays like a back up, the 5th year will be with another team.

 

[tynimiller]

True that the option comes sooner but if the team signs him to a 5th year option and year 4 is lackluster, he won't be around for year 5 as he'll be a cut candidate at that point. Would the Packers pay out the large sum of a 5th year option if he's only good for 3 sacks? Probably not. At that point, the 5th year option is a moot point. If LVN plays like a back up, the 5th year will be with another team.

Nope. The amount of autrocious dog crap level of play he would have to do to not see a 5th year if we pick up his fifth year option is a level of regression there is next to zero chance of seeing.

I still personally don't think we see 5th year option but instead one year extension and split the same money across 2024 and 2025. But LVN is insanely young yet, when healthy has played very well and arguably is one of our best defenders along the front at this point that is healthy and will likely see opening day of 2026 (Parsons won't be there and Gary is behind LVN at this point unless he turns it around).

 

[Sanguine camper]

You're right. I'm a little baffled by comments suggesting that draft position means very little.

As you note, there is an opportunity cost - the guy not picked because LVN was selected. Draft position is not always a great indicator of how well a guy will play in the NFL. Even so, at #12 there are a lot of very talented guys available. I have no doubt Gluten thought very highly of LVN and thought he was the BPA for the team.

Better players get passed over all the time. It's in the past and can't be changed. LVN should be looked at for what he has produced and what his availability has been like in 3 years. I'm not impressed, and I'm just going by the stats, and the unavoidable fact that he's never been a starter. He did end the season well, so there's hope.

That's enough about LVN. There should be consensus among us that we want him to have a great 2026.

I'll be interested by what Gluten can accomplish in the offseason. The top needs are two starting CBs and a starting DE or DT. That won't be easy, and FA is the best path, or improvement from someone already on the roster. There should be someone available with the second pick to help with one of these needs a well.

I can't see the Packers going into next year with the same group of DT players. No doubt CB is a need but if you don't pick until #52, what are the chances a good CB falls thst far? There are always exceptions but like pass rusher, the good CB's get snapped up quick.

I'd be happy if Gute used his best picks on the defensive and offensive lines. RB and TE are also sneaky needs, since Jacobs may not be a RB #1 in 2027 or 2028 and Musgrave will probably be gone after 2026.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Right. I was there and he was celebrating. When he got to the sideline he was not smiling.

You were at the game milani?! Good for you! It looked like a nice, sunny day.

I haven't been to Lambeau in, probably, 40 years., I do remember it was a December game against the Falcons. It was so cold we were putting snow over our shoes to act as insulation. Literally had to drink my beer fast or ice would form on top. (Well that may be an imagined problem. I would never let ice or evaporation ruin a perfectly good beer.)

And yeah, LVN got to Flacco FAST on that play and then was jumping up and down. Still surprised he was hurt.

Well I truly hope he has a career-making season in 2026. He needs it and the defense needs it.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I can't see the Packers going into next year with the same group of DT players. No doubt CB is a need but if you don't pick until #52, what are the chances a good CB falls thst far? There are always exceptions but like pass rusher, the good CB's get snapped up quick.

I'd be happy if Gute used his best picks on the defensive and offensive lines. RB and TE are also sneaky needs, since Jacobs may not be a RB #1 in 2027 or 2028 and Musgrave will probably be gone after 2026.

It's very, very hard to find a starter in almost any round of the draft. It does happen but it's almost impossible to know. The Bears selected RB Monanghai in the 7th round and the guy looked like an All Pro this year at times.

I don't know who is available in FA at CB and DT. I do agree with you - they need a starter at DT and at least one starter, ideally two, at CB. There should be enough cap for Gluten. It's a question of who is available and how quickly can Gluten get a deal done.

And I agree TE depth would help. Musgrave is ok - he's a good route runner, a good catcher, but he's awful in YAC. Reminds me of Richard Rodgers. Whyle has shown promise, so maybe a late-round draft pick works here.

As for RB, when are we (ever) gonna see Lloyd? His first two years have been redshirts. Either he can play or not, but. enough.

Finally, and as much as I love Jacobs, he has a lot of bruising miles on him. He's the leader of the offense IMO but yeah, it's time to be thinking beyond 2026 at RB, and sad to say, life without Jacobs.

 

[milani]

You were at the game milani?! Good for you! It looked like a nice, sunny day.

I haven't been to Lambeau in, probably, 40 years., I do remember it was a December game against the Falcons. It was so cold we were putting snow over our shoes to act as insulation. Literally had to drink my beer fast or ice would form on top. (Well that may be an imagined problem. I would never let ice or evaporation ruin a perfectly good beer.)

And yeah, LVN got to Flacco FAST on that play and then was jumping up and down. Still surprised he was hurt.

Well I truly hope he has a career-making season in 2026. He needs it and the defense needs it.

What stood out for me since the Bengals were not very good was Flacco coming right over from Cleveland and appearing to have a better command of the offense than the players around him. And, I was surprised, but thrilled that Lucas, our replacement kicker, was perfect. He won the game by hitting 3 PATs and 2 FGs. We were so accustomed to poor kicking from the young kickers Gute brought in after Crosby.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

True that the option comes sooner but if the team signs him to a 5th year option and year 4 is lackluster, he won't be around for year 5 as he'll be a cut candidate at that point.

See that is the rub of exercising the 5th year option, the $15M becomes guaranteed and thus becomes a full cap hit for 2027, unless LVN is traded, but his new team would then be stuck with the $15M.

So, no, you don't pick up his option, with the thought of "if he doesn't have a good 2026, we will just cut him." Since he is already fully paid for in 2027.

 

[milani]

See that is the rub of exercising the 5th year option, the $15M becomes guaranteed and thus becomes a full cap hit for 2027, unless LVN is traded, but his new team would then be stuck with the $15M.

So, no, you don't pick up his option, with the thought of "if he doesn't have a good 2026, we will just cut him." Since he is already fully paid for.

I think the role of Van Ness has been juggled since he came here. I am not sure he will become the disruptor he was in college. Offenses appear to account for him most of the time. I do not see that KGB speed around the edge. And I do not see him overpowering anyone. I wish he could show what we saw from the Ram attackers last Sunday. I.E. Getting into the backfield and blowing up plays and stuffing RBs.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think the role of Van Ness has been juggled since he came here. I am not sure he will become the disruptor he was in college. Offenses appear to account for him most of the time. I do not see that KGB speed around the edge. And I do not see him overpowering anyone. I wish he could show what we saw from the Ram attackers last Sunday. I.E. Getting into the backfield and blowing up plays and stuffing RBs.

I agree that LVN isn't flashy and I doubt he gets a lot of double teams. Gute, MLF and the new DC will have to decide if he fits into their future plans. Like a few posters have pointed out, a lot happens in the trenches that we may not see statistically, but stands out to the coaches as a player doing their job.

Let's all keep in mind that Parsons is making around $46.5M/year, so oddly enough, $15M/year is probably not that crazy of money, even for an average DE.

 

[tynimiller]

I agree that LVN isn't flashy and I doubt he gets a lot of double teams. Gute, MLF and the new DC will have to decide if he fits into their future plans. Like a few posters have pointed out, a lot happens in the trenches that we may not see statistically, but stands out to the coaches as a player doing their job.

Let's all keep in mind that Parsons is making around $46.5M/year, so oddly enough, $15M/year is probably not that crazy of money, even for an average DE.

I take it you bypassed the statistical breakdown of the chips, doubles and triples he saw in comparison to many others? Let me find it and reshare it...you'll be shocked at how often defenses account for him specifically intentionally.

 

[tynimiller]

@Pokerbrat2000 Here you go:

So you think Enagbare is better value to the team?

LVN has been a better and more consistent presence than Enagbare for the last two years. I would argue LVN, especially from Week 12 on (once he was healthy and not playing hurt) he was our best edge defender out there not named Parsons (week 12 and 13).

Anyone that has the time I'd encourage some All22 and watch LVN solely especially In the Baltimore and Chicago WC games as it was clear from his snap count (47 both games) he was finally not on a pitch count (had 22 and 26 the games prior)...in those two games that the defense focused more on him than he'd likely ever experienced recently (Parsons out and Gary just playing average) LVN put together some amazing games. There were some plays crashed by him which were special. I remember a few times in the game thread I would point out plays he was causing by his motor at times, strength at times and quickness at times.

Parsons saw Double Teams 56.68% according to PFF state from early January (HERE)...Gary saw it 37.56% and Enagbare 37.67%. Opposition double teamed LVN 45.64%
Chipped help seen by these guys Parsons - | Gary 19.95% | Enagbare 14.88% | LVN 13.42%
Triple Teams - Parsons 12.09% | Gary 4.40% | Enagbare 2.33% | LVN 8.05%

Oppositions knew/know how good LVN is and the threat to the offense he is, but fans just don't see it is all.

LVN has been immensely more value to the Packers when able to play in the edge room than anyone not named Micah this past year.

Incase some are wondering a few breakdowns of guys of the above rates...INCLUDES 4 OF THE TOP 5 SACK LEADERS 2025:

Few notables that saw lower double rate and triple rate than LVN
Aidan Hutchinson - Chipped 20.59% | Doubled 42.73% | Tripled 5.88%
Danielle Hunter - Chipped 20.53% | Doubled 44.97% | Tripled 6.98%
Travon Walker - Chipped 10.30% | Doubled 43.33% | Tripled 6.36%
Brian Burns - Chipped 14.35% | Doubled 33.55% | Tripled 1.99%
Joey Bosa - Chipped 15.72% | Doubled 33.96% | Tripled 4.4%
Nik Bonitto - Chipped 14.07% | Doubled 30.62% | Tripled 2.96%

Few that saw more in all three or almost:
Myles Garrett - Chipped 26.07% | Doubled 59.06% | Tripled 8.15% (.10% higher than LVN)
Micah Parsons - Shared above
Shemar Stewart - Chipped 5.06% | Doubled 51.12% | 8.99%
Maxx Crosby - Chipped 15.97% | Doubled 47.70% | 6.79%


I understand most folks when judging edges, whether we admit it or not, just pull up sack productions or pressure productions and judge the player away. Fact is that can illuminate who the biggest impact guys are, but it greatly clouds the judgement of a lot of solid and well respected by DC players that absolutely are solid edges. You don't double or triple a JAG to the degree LVN sees regardless of any other factor.

Imagine a world where the NLF Draft is a secret and private thing - fans are only told the players added but not the pick. Perhaps than we'd have a much fairer way of judging a player's value to the team - because we all struggle to separate grading the player and not mixing in the value of what he "cost us in the draft".

Is it a risk to place the 5th year tag on him - absolutely. It's a lot of money given the premium position he is. HOWEVER, that's likely why I'd love to see them do the Love "5th year" tactic or how they kept Watson through a one year extension instead of 5th year option - distribute some of the hit to the 2025 cap, essentially put the same money in his pocket as a 5th year would have cost and from a player perspective it is better than if they did pick up 5th year...at least now more money a year sooner.

Has he been good enough for a clean 5th year option - personally I say no. Has he been good, absolutely. Which is why I'd try to do the one year extension instead of 5th year option thing.

 

[Heyjoe4]

What stood out for me since the Bengals were not very good was Flacco coming right over from Cleveland and appearing to have a better command of the offense than the players around him. And, I was surprised, but thrilled that Lucas, our replacement kicker, was perfect. He won the game by hitting 3 PATs and 2 FGs. We were so accustomed to poor kicking from the young kickers Gute brought in after Crosby.

Thanks milani. Is that the game where Havrisik hit a 61 yarder, longest in Packers' history? Damn that would have been cool to see.

As for Flacco, he just keeps denying Father Time. The guy can still play. Did he win a SB with the Ravens? I seem to recall that and that he got a big contract the following year.

Amazing observation that Flacco was more comfortable with the system than the guys there. I do believe if Cleveland can make sone big improvements on offense, they'll be solid. Their D is very good, as we learned the hard way......

 

[Heyjoe4]

See that is the rub of exercising the 5th year option, the $15M becomes guaranteed and thus becomes a full cap hit for 2027, unless LVN is traded, but his new team would then be stuck with the $15M.

So, no, you don't pick up his option, with the thought of "if he doesn't have a good 2026, we will just cut him." Since he is already fully paid for in 2027.

Yeah $15 mil fully guaranteed in a non-starter.

Best bet is to drop the fifth year option and sign him to a one-year, prove it deal that is less than $15 mil and not fully guaranteed - maybe with a lot of incentives. Whether or not he is a good DE, he's been unreliable due to injury and he has never started.

I want him to succeed, we all do, I think. But nothing in his past indicates a need to pick up of the 5th year option, much less extend him. Maybe with Gary gone, LVN will have a chance at more snaps, more production, all that good stuff we're waiting for.

I need an AI agent to summarize all the stats and details that have been posted, my head is swimming. Lacking that, I'll trust what I have and have not seen.

 

[milani]

Thanks milani. Is that the game where Havrisik hit a 61 yarder, longest in Packers' history? Damn that would have been cool to see.

As for Flacco, he just keeps denying Father Time. The guy can still play. Did he win a SB with the Ravens? I seem to recall that and that he got a big contract the following year.

Amazing observation that Flacco was more comfortable with the system than the guys there. I do believe if Cleveland can make sone big improvements on offense, they'll be solid. Their D is very good, as we learned the hard way......

No. That was the game right before the 61 yarder In AZ. In the Bengal game we had a 24-18 lead late and needed a score. I hoped we could get a TD and use some clock. We used the clock but could not get deep enough. Lucas hit from about 39. It gave us the 2 score lead and put Cincy into garbage time. These crucial kicks were the type we missed in 23 and 24 and even in 25. I am glad the Packers will give him a shot next season. We have to see how he kicks in colder weather. When McManus was reactivated, Lucas did not get any live kicking for a few weeks when the Packers went to NY. The strong, tricky winds obviously bothered him that day. But a good ST coach can help with that. The snaps were not exactly perfect either.