2019 Post-Draft Period

[Dantés]

Good points and I am really going to dumb down my response by just saying this: From a fans vantage point, Packer LB's have often looked pretty lost on coverage. Now if that is a matter of speed, technique or both, it is something that concerns me.

You are probably correct in saying that both of the Devins were the only 2 players in the draft that could have immediately helped fix this. Otherwise, unless Burks/Jones steps their game up this year, i don't currently see an ILB on the roster that will.

The other thought is Preston Smith. He actually has decent skills in coverage: In 2017 (couldn't find 2018), he had 72 coverage snaps, was targeted eight times, allowed just 29 total yards and intercepted two passes. So maybe the plan is to drop Smith back when needed?

When you're talking about linebackers in coverage, you have to differentiate between guys who have good instincts and range in zone, and guys who actually have man coverage skills.

Martinez is a pretty good coverage linebacker if you're asking him to drop into zone coverage. Smith may be as well, on the outside. Neither of these guys are going to man up on a tight end or a running back and run routes with them. That would be defensive suicide. This is why you get such dramatically different opinions of Martinez in coverage from people who are generally well-informed. An entity like PFF will give him good marks in coverage because he is pretty good in zone. Someone considering his role in the defense will argue he's not a great cover LB because he can't match up in man. But PFF isn't grading what he's not doing.

Burks is the guy who has the best shot of becoming a linebacker with some man cover skills. I do think Jones will get some looks in that role, but I don't see it with him... he's a terrific straight line athlete, but he's stiff. Athletically, Burks has the speed (4.59), length/vert (6'3" 33.5" arms, 39.5" vert), and fluidity (6.82 3C, 4.15 SS) that you want in a guy who has to match up with backs and tight ends. It's just a matter of settling into one position and proving he has the instincts to hang and the toughness to defend the run.

I have no idea what Burks will become, but it's hilarious to me that they drafted him to be a project and many fans have already decided that he's dead in the water.

 

[gbgary]

I'd think an ILB would be on the top of the list. A SS would not be far behind. I guess you could say I don't have much confidence in Jones or Burks making their third year or second jumps, respectively.

As with free agency Phase I, I'm not much interested in any grizzled vets on the downside rented for a year or two.. I'll keep repeating "go young or go home" until these guys win something. I though Ibraheim Campbell did a decent job coming off the bench but he tore an ACL. Pickups along those lines for depth would be helpful.

yup ILB. i think they think they're done at saftety. something might happen causing them to reevaluate that though.

my post-draft 2019 record prediction...9-7. i think the defense, sight unseen, will get them an additional win. if it turns out to be a good-to-great defense...10-6.

 

[Dantés]

Free agents with previous PR experience/production:

• D'Anthony Thomas
• Rashad Greene

 

[Dantés]

If Josh Jones is really a dime linebacker, then the true safeties on the roster are Amos, Savage, and Greene. So that position is still pretty thin.

Some free agents of note that remain w/ their ages:

• Tre Boston (27)
• Jahleel Addae (29)
• Andre Hal (26)

Some potential cuts post-draft:

• Jaylen Watkins, LAC (26)-- drafted Adderley in round 2
• Blake Countess, LAR (25)-- drafted Rapp in round 2
• Jordan Lucas, KC (25)-- drafted Thornhill in round 2
• Akeem King, SEA (26)-- drafted Blair in round 2

Countess has been released. He can now be claimed by the Packers if they are interested.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If Josh Jones is really a dime linebacker....

I think the reference to "dime linebacker" muddles the issue. Given Martinez took 98.6% of the defensive snaps last season, he is the dime linebacker. As you noted above, he's a decent coverage guy in zone (though I'd qualify that by saying "with the play in front of him"), which is what he is asked to do taking the middle drop with 7 in coverage. I don't think you're talking about the need for a Martinez dime sub when the real issue is the other ILB position on the other 90% of the snaps.

This could be a symantic distiction. If there a difference between a 3 safety dime with one in the box and a nickel D with a hybrid ILB? I'd say little or none. But when you say "dime ILB", it conjures for most folks a Joe Thomas type taking a middle drop on 3rd. and 10 or like long yardage plays representing 10% dime, but preferablly not flat footed and trailing an under route for a 12 yard gain with YAC.

The questions before the court are:

1) Who takes the 20% ILB base snaps with Martinez? Morrison is gone; Ryan is not coming back.

2) Who takes the 65-70% of the snaps in nickel D with Martinez, that guy who can run with a TE up the seam or a RB on wheel route?

3) If the guy in 2) above is a not a particularly good run defender, do you need a 4th. guy to play in nickel tweener downs like 3rd. and 3, or even 1st. and 10 nowadays, who can defend the run while handling the short throws that are often run substitutions in those situations, and there are a lot of them.

Pending a vet roster addition, there looks to be a lot riding on Burks to be something close to a 3 down player. Whether Jones makes an appearance again in the roles 2) or 3) is possible, maybe Amos a la Burnett in the back half of 2017, but it looks like they threw in the towel on Jones-at-ILB last year. I see Jones as more an emergency swing man to the ILB position.

Bottom line:

The safety starters are set, with some rookie lumps taken along the way, like or not. With Jones backing up at SS, Amos with SS/FS positional flexibility, and Williams able to take over at FS in a pinch, with Greene in the mix. The bases look covered.

ILB, on the other hand, depends greatly on Burks having his light go on, which is always a questionable proposition. Even then, where is the injury depth? A suspect Jones, who may already be the first safety off the bench with an injury, and ?.

Between the two position groups, it is clear to me ILB is the one begging for a vet addition.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

After 4 pm today, any Free Agents signed won't count against Compensatory Picks. From memory, this is when TT did his bargain shopping. Will Gute be in line to sign anyone? I doubt Gute and the Packers are too worried about compensatory picks, but since they signed 4 players (Smith, Smith, Amos and Turner) that will negatively effect their chances and lost 4 (Cobb, Matthews, Breeland and Brice), they might be thinking about it? I still don't know how the formula works, but if its weighted based on contracts, the Packers have gained more than they lost probably.

Not sure if I missed anyone that factors into it on either side.

 

[Mondio]

i just don't think we have money for it to even matter at this point. Unless there is someone completely unexpected that they absolutely love, I don't expect any changes except at the bottom of the roster from now thru training camp outside of injury situations.

and with the FA's we brought on board already, we could sign 15 more today (if we had money) and it wouldn't change the compensatory formula for next year, we're not getting any anyway

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

For lack of a better place to post this, besides "other NFL teams news", which few seem to look at.....

Name this player, without doing a Google search on it.

The power of the weight room or juice?

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[Mondio]

i was going to say me. The similarities are uncanny, but I'd never wear Panthers apparel.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

i was going to say me. The similarities are uncanny, but I'd never wear Panthers apparel.

I see the problem here, you saw THIS picture.

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[HardRightEdge]

After 4 pm today, any Free Agents signed won't count against Compensatory Picks. From memory, this is when TT did his bargain shopping. Will Gute be in line to sign anyone? I doubt Gute and the Packers are too worried about compensatory picks, but since they signed 4 players (Smith, Smith, Amos and Turner) that will negatively effect their chances and lost 4 (Cobb, Matthews, Breeland and Brice), they might be thinking about it? I still don't know how the formula works, but if its weighted based on contracts, the Packers have gained more than they lost probably.

Not sure if I missed anyone that factors into it on either side.

Compensatory picks are primarily determined by the size of the FA contract. Gutekunst was not previously in position cap-wise to sign to anybody that would likely qualify for a day 2 pick, and unless he cuts guys to clear cap space that's not going to change.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Compensatory picks are primarily determined by the size of the FA contract. Gutekunst was not previously in position cap-wise to sign to anybody that would likely qualify for a day 2 pick, and unless he cuts guys to clear cap space that's not going to change.

More importantly, this factor comes into play when a team has already lost high value FAs, potentially earning compensatory pick(s), at which point signing a high value FA would be an offset causing a possible comp pick to be lost.

That is not this, with Gutekunst's basket of FA acquisitions already far outpacing the minimal FA losses.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

More importantly, this factor comes into play when a team has already lost high value FAs, potentially earning compensatory pick(s), at which point signing a high value FA would be an offset causing a possible comp pick to be lost.

Over The Cap is actually doing a pretty good job predicting compensatory picks. Here' a link to their chart:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Over The Cap is actually doing a pretty good job predicting compensatory picks. Here' a link to their chart:

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-draft-picks-cancellation-chart/

Nice, thanks for posting that.

Looks like the Patriots, Vikings and Seahawks are going to be in line for some decent compensatory picks.

 

[gbgary]

2019 Post-Draft Period

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[Pokerbrat2000]

Seahawks sign pass-rusher Ziggy Ansah on a 1-year deal worth a base value of $9M, source said. With incentives, the deal could be worth up to almost $13M.

Had the Seahawks signed him before May 7, they would have canceled out their 4th round 2020 compensatory pick for Justin Coleman.

Some smart GM'ing there, at least on the timing.

 

[gbgary]

peter king's put out his very early power rankings. kool-aid drinkers will love this lol...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/05/13/nfl-power-rankings-fmia-peter-king/

 

[Heyjoe4]

When you're talking about linebackers in coverage, you have to differentiate between guys who have good instincts and range in zone, and guys who actually have man coverage skills.

Martinez is a pretty good coverage linebacker if you're asking him to drop into zone coverage. Smith may be as well, on the outside. Neither of these guys are going to man up on a tight end or a running back and run routes with them. That would be defensive suicide. This is why you get such dramatically different opinions of Martinez in coverage from people who are generally well-informed. An entity like PFF will give him good marks in coverage because he is pretty good in zone. Someone considering his role in the defense will argue he's not a great cover LB because he can't match up in man. But PFF isn't grading what he's not doing.

Burks is the guy who has the best shot of becoming a linebacker with some man cover skills. I do think Jones will get some looks in that role, but I don't see it with him... he's a terrific straight line athlete, but he's stiff. Athletically, Burks has the speed (4.59), length/vert (6'3" 33.5" arms, 39.5" vert), and fluidity (6.82 3C, 4.15 SS) that you want in a guy who has to match up with backs and tight ends. It's just a matter of settling into one position and proving he has the instincts to hang and the toughness to defend the run.

I have no idea what Burks will become, but it's hilarious to me that they drafted him to be a project and many fans have already decided that he's dead in the water.

Burks is probably the most likely to develop coverage skills. And yeah, let’s not write him off yet. Geez. I think we’ve seen all we’re gonna see from Jones, meaning he’ll be most effective in the box. Still think ILB is the weakest position on D, and at least one more S for depth is needed. Can’t fill all the holes in FA and the draft, so here’s hoping Burks makes the 2nd year jump. He’s got the athleticism and flexibility to drop in coverage, zone or man.

 

[OldSchool101]

Burks is probably the most likely to develop coverage skills. And yeah, let’s not write him off yet. Geez. I think we’ve seen all we’re gonna see from Jones, meaning he’ll be most effective in the box. Still think ILB is the weakest position on D, and at least one more S for depth is needed. Can’t fill all the holes in FA and the draft, so here’s hoping Burks makes the 2nd year jump. He’s got the athleticism and flexibility to drop in coverage, zone or man.

It’s almost like Burks and Jones would do better swapping positions. Burks was a converted Safety (where he had success) and Jones seems to fit the box defender role better, where he can use his smash mouth, running downhill mentality near the LOS.
I know Ty is extremely athletic, but he sounds like a project for ST and maybe refined into LB depth down the road.

 

[Heyjoe4]

It’s almost like Burks and Jones would do better swapping positions. Burks was a converted Safety (where he had success) and Jones seems to fit the box defender role better, where he can use his smash mouth, running downhill mentality near the LOS.
I know Ty is extremely athletic, but he sounds like a project for ST and maybe refined into LB depth down the road.

Not a bad idea. It adds depth to the S group which is needed and leverages Burks’s athleticism. I don’t think Jones can cover though, so the ILB group is still thin. But no doubt Jones belongs close to the LOS.

 

[GleefulGary]

Burks isn't moving to S. I don't even know why it's under discussion.

 

[OldSchool101]

Not a bad idea. It adds depth to the S group which is needed and leverages Burks’s athleticism. I don’t think Jones can cover though, so the ILB group is still thin. But no doubt Jones belongs close to the LOS.

Maybe. But if Jones can’t cover what the heck is he doing playing the Safety position? That’s not good!

 

[OldSchool101]

Burks isn't moving to S. I don't even know why it's under discussion.

Of course he’s not we’ve got our a$x in a sling at Coverage LB. We’ve now invested too much in him converting from a successful Safety in college to the project of ILB position in the NFL so we have little choice now.
Plus we just invested THREE 2019 draft picks AND 28,000,000 in FA at Safety.
It would be absolutely a travesty to have a 3rd Safety off the bench who has proven success at the position when we have a hero like Williams filling in and getting a smidge shy of embarrassed at the position (it was no accident that we went HEAVY capital at Safety) after watching him like a fish out of water last year.

 

[GleefulGary]

Of course he’s not we’ve got our a$x in a sling at Coverage LB.
We’ve invested too much in him converting from a successful Safety in college to the project of ILB position in the NFL. A position we largely ignored going back years and now because of it we have no answer for it opposite Martinez.
Plus we just invested THREE 2019 draft picks AND 28,000,000 in FA at Safety.
It would be absolutely a travesty to have a 3rd Safety off the bench who is has proven success at the position when we have a hero like Jamaal Williams filling in and getting a smidge shy of embarrassed at the position

Burks played LB, or a role very similar to a LB, more frequently than he played safety in college.

And Jamaal Williams never took a snap on defense for us? What are you talking about?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Maybe. But if Jones can’t cover what the heck is he doing playing the Safety position?

Jones could develop into a decent strong safety but if you expect him to line up at free safety you will get disappointed.

Burks needs to make a jump this season, otherwise inside linebacker could be a huge weakness.