2019 Post-Draft Period

[HardRightEdge]

Over the next few days and weeks, teams will cut vets they were targetting to replace in the draft, to get under the Top 51 cap, and/or in looking ahead to the additional necessary cap expenditures before opening day (draftee signings, players 52 and 53, practice squad, PUP/IR reserve) which I've discussed ad nauseum in the past.

Conversely, teams that did not fill needs in the draft and have available cap space will look to back and fill with some free agent signings, either guys who were already on the street or newly replaced players.

Here's the current cap space for each team per the NFLPA:

https://www.nflpa.com/public-salary-cap-report

These numbers can quickly go stale, but it is where things stand now. Note there are 5 teams with less than $5 mil in cap space. These would be the leading candidtates to clear space with cuts, but not the only possibilities.

The Packers currently have about $14.1mil in cap space, unchanged for at least the past month.

To recap, without getting into the machinations, necessary Packer costs going forward as of pre-draft were about $4.5 mil for the draft class after subtracting costs for the guys they replace in the top 51, about $1.1 mil for the eventual cost of players 52 and 53 as the roster is currently constituted, about $1.4 mil for the practice squad, and what I consider a minimum $2 mil reserve for PUP/IR replacements.

That brings effective cap space down to $5.1 mil. This explains why Gutekunst mentioned he had $5 mil left to work with which created a minor stir among short-sighted media types.

Now, there is a minor reduction in effective cap space in trading up from #30 to #21. Last year the rookie cap difference between those two picks was about $900,000. Losing the two 4th. round picks is a very minor cap consideration since their rookie pay is so low. For example, Moore's rookie cap number was $593,000. Maybe that will be something like $630,00 with salary cap bump. That would barely crack the current top 53 minimum of $570,000.

Long story short, the trade up takes the usable cap space down close to $4 mil.

I'm out of time this morning, but some questions moving forward would be:

1) Will Gutekunst use that effective cap space to back and fill, keeping in mind cap carryover and the 2020 cap situation where those backloaded FA contracts start to slam against the cap?

2) Which positions might he want to fill with a veteran?

3) Who, if anyone, might get cut for cap savings, for use now or next season, in light of the draft?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Damn HRE, I never questioned your commitment, but I'm impressed.

I'm not really worried about depth anywhere else but LB.

Manti Te'o - Expected Cost: 1 Year/$2M/$500k signing bonus/$800k guaranteed

DJ Alexander - Expected Cost: 1 Year/$800K/$65k signing bonus/$550k guaranteed

 

[GleefulGary]

Te'o needs to go on a quest for his imaginary girlfriend, not play in GB.

Wouldn't mind bringing in Zach Brown though.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

That was what.....6 years ago? Leave the past in the past. If anything he's been nothing but a quality LB.

Zach Brown isn't going to play for peanuts, precisely why he's a Free Agent.

 

[Dantés]

Safety and punt returner are the two spots where I think a veteran could still be added.

 

[OldSchool101]

I’d still consider a veteran WR. I’d make a trade at a position we’re heavy at to secure a contingency plan in the event GMO or Davante is out for any period of time, particularly first 1/2 of this season. We’re walking on thin ice using the excuse that cold weather is around the corner. There may be no corner if we fall through before it thickens.

I’m guessing some of these positions thin at veteran experience are calculated risks. Such as WR and wanting to see more of Jmon, kumerow, EQ and MVS, while keeping Davis at PR.

 

[Poppa San]

I could see a need for a RB fluent in the O scheme yet. Don't see any depth behind 1&2. Maybe make a bit of room in the DL with a trade of Daniels or more likely Adams. Wouldn't get much from someone unloading their extra RB.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I could see a need for a RB fluent in the O scheme yet. Don't see any depth behind 1&2. Maybe make a bit of room in the DL with a trade of Daniels or more likely Adams. Wouldn't get much from someone unloading their extra RB.

I'm assuming 1&2 are A. Jones and J. Williams. I can understand some skepticism but you don't have any faith in D. Williams abilities? I honestly believe D. Williams will supplant J. Williams by the bye week.

 

[Poppa San]

I'm assuming 1&2 are A. Jones and J. Williams. I can understand some skepticism but you don't have any faith in D. Williams abilities? I honestly believe D. Williams will supplant J. Williams by the bye week.

Any draft pick after the 4th round is I'll believe it when I see it against NFL regulars.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Any draft pick after the 4th round is I'll believe it when I see it against NFL regulars.

Fair enough, even though RB typically has the easiest transition.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'd think an ILB would be on the top of the list. A SS would not be far behind. I guess you could say I don't have much confidence in Jones or Burks making their third year or second jumps, respectively.

As with free agency Phase I, I'm not much interested in any grizzled vets on the downside rented for a year or two.. I'll keep repeating "go young or go home" until these guys win something. I though Ibraheim Campbell did a decent job coming off the bench but he tore an ACL. Pickups along those lines for depth would be helpful.

 

[tynimiller]

Not gonna lie Teo could be a good fit at the price listed above.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I could see a need for a RB fluent in the O scheme yet. Don't see any depth behind 1&2. Maybe make a bit of room in the DL with a trade of Daniels or more likely Adams. Wouldn't get much from someone unloading their extra RB.

Daniels would be a difficult trade with the other team having to pick up $8+ mil cash and cap for the last year on his contract. On the other hand, he's pretty expensive for a guy who is likely to see reduced nickle/dime snaps.

Dexter Williams looks like a scheme fit and a decent back, closer to the mold of the other Willams than Jones. He dropped on character issues. I don't think they would have drafted him if they didn't think they could influence him onto the straight and narrow, but there's never any guarantee of that. I doubt they'll go looking for a veteran back unless somebody gets hurt or Dexter gets in trouble again.

Lavon Coleman and Malcolm Johnson are the only other backs on the roster other than Jones and the Williams boys. I know nothing about them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm still not set on the Packers ILB, but not sure how Pettine plans on using the current players that he has.

I don't have a full opinion on him yet, but the Steelers just released ILB Jon Bostic. He started 14 games last year. Not an All Pro, but wouldn't be expensive and serviceable option for depth. My big question is 5 teams in 6 years?

Zach Brown would be another ILB I would look at. But guessing his price tag would be too high.

and just to get Captain excited. With the Buccaneers using a 5th rounder on the Kicker I wanted, Matt Gay, I am guessing Cairo Santos will be available at some point...bring him in!

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm reading Te'o was a healthy scratch in several games last season as the Saints went to a lot of 2 ILBs sets. Ain't that the way of the world as NFL defenses are playing 75-80% nickel and dime while valuing speed at the ILB position.

T'eo is in a very similar boat as Morrison last season who went from 15 starts and 100+ tackles to traded for Lenzy Pipkins just like that. These are old school ILBs: not very fast or twitchy but they will punch you in the mouth. Te'o does have depth of experience going for him. There's a place for these guys in base defense but it's just not run much anymore. And it's not like Martinez is the speediest guy in the world to be paired with. I see the Te'o fit as a base D sub and a Martinez backup.

The Packers have tried to put speed into the position, first Jones then Burks. It would help to add a hybrid type to round out the ILB group, especially with Burks' development questionable. Ty Summers ran a 4.51 but I'm reading Texas Christian pulled him on passing downs. If you can't cover at Texas Christion then you have a looooong way to go to make it in the show except as a core special teamer.

A big SS who can defend the run in the box would would fit while backing up Amos, the presumptive SS.

 

[gopkrs]

For me, if we had a RT we would be better off. Just don't trust Bulaga to be around during the playoffs. Am looking forward to a great year!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Ty Summers ran a 4.51 but I'm reading Texas Christian pulled him on passing downs. If you can't cover at Texas Christion then you have a looooong way to go to make it in the show except as a core special teamer.

I read the same thing and am in total agreement. The Packers still have not found that ILB that can cover a shifty RB, TE or WR. Now maybe they have a plan and it involves recently signed FA's, drafted players or Burks to step up, but until I stop seeing RB's, TE's and slot receivers totally burn Packer LB's, I will view it as one of their biggest achilles heals on defense.

 

[GleefulGary]

I read the same thing and am in total agreement. The Packers still have not found that ILB that can cover a shifty RB, TE or WR. Now maybe they have a plan and it involves recently signed FA's, drafted players or Burks to step up, but until I stop seeing RB's, TE's and slot receivers totally burn Packer LB's, I will view it as one of their biggest achilles heals on defense.

This draft had two of those players and they went top 10.

If you have a slot WR burning a LB, the problem isn't the LB, but the defensive alignment.

 

[Dantés]

If Josh Jones is really a dime linebacker, then the true safeties on the roster are Amos, Savage, and Greene. So that position is still pretty thin.

Some free agents of note that remain w/ their ages:

• Tre Boston (27)
• Jahleel Addae (29)
• Andre Hal (26)

Some potential cuts post-draft:

• Jaylen Watkins, LAC (26)-- drafted Adderley in round 2
• Blake Countess, LAR (25)-- drafted Rapp in round 2
• Jordan Lucas, KC (25)-- drafted Thornhill in round 2
• Akeem King, SEA (26)-- drafted Blair in round 2

 

[RepStar15]

If anyone is cut or traded to open cap it’s Bryan Bulaga (only 1.6mil in dead cap with a 6.7mil savings), Tramon Williams (2.6mil I’m dead cap with a 3.7 saving), Dean Lowry (95k in dead cap and 2mil savings), Mercedes Lewis (500k in seas with 1.6mil savings), or Mike Daniels (2.4 in dead cap with 8.3 in savings)

 

[Dantés]

I read the same thing and am in total agreement. The Packers still have not found that ILB that can cover a shifty RB, TE or WR. Now maybe they have a plan and it involves recently signed FA's, drafted players or Burks to step up, but until I stop seeing RB's, TE's and slot receivers totally burn Packer LB's, I will view it as one of their biggest achilles heals on defense.

Just adding some statistical context. 2018 GB defense vs...

Tight End:

• Yardage: 48.5/game (16th)
• YPR: 11.58/reception (22nd)
• TD: .25/game (5th-- Tie)
• Receptions: 4.19/game (10th-- Tie)

Running Back:

• Yardage: 38.06/game (11th)
• YPR: 9.23/reception (29th)
• TD: .25/game (18th-- Tie)
• Receptions: 4.12/game (2nd-- Tie)

Very interesting to me that in both cases, targeting these positions was effective against the Packers on a per reception basis, but in both cases the positions were targeted relatively rarely. You wonder if that has anything to do with the nature of Pettine's blitz heavy scheme? That is-- because TE's and RB's can be asked to help in pass pro, perhaps they aren't going into as many routes vs. the Packers, but because the personnel for defending them isn't ideal, and because there is always a risk to blitzing, when they do catch passes it is for a chunk play.

 

[Dantés]

If anyone is cut or traded to open cap it’s Bryan Bulaga (only 1.6mil in dead cap with a 6.7mil savings), Tramon Williams (2.6mil I’m dead cap with a 3.7 saving), Dean Lowry (95k in dead cap and 2mil savings), Mercedes Lewis (500k in seas with 1.6mil savings), or Mike Daniels (2.4 in dead cap with 8.3 in savings)

I would imagine that Bulaga is off this list, given that they didn't draft a tackle.

Lewis also fairly safe, given that they don't have another TE who can block.

Not a chance Lowry is cut, as he is inexpensive and quality.

Tramon is possible, though I would favor him to make the roster as a mentor for all these young corners (and he can still play).

Daniels is the player who might be in trouble. I still think he's more like to make it than not, but they already had Adams on the roster, and now they've signed Z. Smith (who does a lot of his rushing from the 3T) and drafted Keke.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If Josh Jones is really a dime linebacker, then the true safeties on the roster are Amos, Savage, and Greene. So that position is still pretty thin.

Some free agents of note that remain w/ their ages:

• Tre Boston (27)
• Jahleel Addae (29)
• Andre Hal (26)

Some potential cuts post-draft:

• Jaylen Watkins, LAC (26)-- drafted Adderley in round 2
• Blake Countess, LAR (25)-- drafted Rapp in round 2
• Jordan Lucas, KC (25)-- drafted Thornhill in round 2
• Akeem King, SEA (26)-- drafted Blair in round 2

Hal retired. I would love Boston or Addae, but I think both will be looking to start, as well as get paid starter like money.

 

[Dantés]

Hal retired. I would love Boston or Addae, but I think both will be looking to start, as well as get paid starter like money.

At some point, they might just be happy to get a deal.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Just adding some statistical context. 2018 GB defense vs...

Tight End:

• Yardage: 48.5/game (16th)
• YPR: 11.58/reception (22nd)
• TD: .25/game (5th-- Tie)
• Receptions: 4.19/game (10th-- Tie)

Running Back:

• Yardage: 38.06/game (11th)
• YPR: 9.23/reception (29th)
• TD: .25/game (18th-- Tie)
• Receptions: 4.12/game (2nd-- Tie)

Very interesting to me that in both cases, targeting these positions was effective against the Packers on a per reception basis, but in both cases the positions were targeted relatively rarely. You wonder if that has anything to do with the nature of Pettine's blitz heavy scheme? That is-- because TE's and RB's can be asked to help in pass pro, perhaps they aren't going into as many routes vs. the Packers, but because the personnel for defending them isn't ideal, and because there is always a risk to blitzing, when they do catch passes it is for a chunk play.

Good points and I am really going to dumb down my response by just saying this: From a fans vantage point, Packer LB's have often looked pretty lost on coverage. Now if that is a matter of speed, technique or both, it is something that concerns me.

You are probably correct in saying that both of the Devins were the only 2 players in the draft that could have immediately helped fix this. Otherwise, unless Burks/Jones steps their game up this year, i don't currently see an ILB on the roster that will.

The other thought is Preston Smith. He actually has decent skills in coverage: In 2017 (couldn't find 2018), he had 72 coverage snaps, was targeted eight times, allowed just 29 total yards and intercepted two passes. So maybe the plan is to drop Smith back when needed?