15th overall pick

tynimiller

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Gronk was MUCH bigger and more physical. If we're saying poor man's Gronk then we're truly talking below the poverty line here.

Strongly disagree. Gronk is a hall of fame TE...Mayer I bet proves to be quicker and having watched a ton of ND games, it was crazy how well he plays balls in the air and high points for a bigger man. A poor man's Gronk is still a guy that probably hits All Pro once or twice in his career which is not the poverty line.
 

Sunshinepacker

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Strongly disagree. Gronk is a hall of fame TE...Mayer I bet proves to be quicker and having watched a ton of ND games, it was crazy how well he plays balls in the air and high points for a bigger man. A poor man's Gronk is still a guy that probably hits All Pro once or twice in his career which is not the poverty line.

My comment was more an indication of how amazing Gronk was at TE. It's unfair to compare ANY TE to Gronk.
 

RicFlairoftheNFL

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Am I the only one who sees Mayer as a slightly worse Hockensen who will never become an elite receiving TE? He'll be reliable and a decent blocker but he doesn't have the athleticism that the truly elite tight ends have. I just don't want to spend a 15th overall pick on a guy who will, at best, be TJ Hockensen, a great possession TE who won't help make an offense elite. Rookie tight ends generally don't do much for their first couple of seasons and Mayer lacks the elite athleticism of other tight ends that can dominate the passing game. The ability for the TE to block is, in my opinion, overrated since, if the TE is an elite receiver, you force the defense to cover the guy and remove a pass rusher from the equation by forcing the defense to cover the TE in a passing route. So unless you think Mayer will be an elite blocker and an elite receiver, I think a first round pick is a waste.
As a Notre Dame fan I thought Eifert was the beast of the last 15 years. Mayer is less than Eifert.
 

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I would say that the KC offensive line showed how important it is to have "quality" players there. If we end up with several 1st round picks; I would like to get some top notched O linemen in this next draft. I imagine that KC has a great O line coach also. That game was won in the trenches. The Eagles could not run like they wanted (except that ridiculous scrum QB sneak which should be outlawed imo), and the KC O line did a great job of protecting Mahomes. Much better than the Eagles' O line did. Admittedly the Eagles were afraid to blitz. Still...
 

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I would say that the KC offensive line showed how important it is to have "quality" players there. If we end up with several 1st round picks; I would like to get some top notched O linemen in this next draft. I imagine that KC has a great O line coach also. That game was won in the trenches. The Eagles could not run like they wanted (except that ridiculous scrum QB sneak which should be outlawed imo), and the KC O line did a great job of protecting Mahomes. Much better than the Eagles' O line did. Admittedly the Eagles were afraid to blitz. Still...
It does start in the trenches and our Oline has been rather poor lately even considering their rankings are bolstered by so much help with TE's etc. Imagine a KC offense where their TE is really a 6th lineman and not going out as a dynamic pass catcher that he is.
and I agree with the scrum. The first ones, they legitimately got, they just moved the pile. The last one. He was stopped for a full second, and was short. Only moved past once everyone got behind him and pushed again. I'm fine with the play when it's quick and they win the LOS, but when you don't, it hink it's just cheap to let it continue
 

tynimiller

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It does start in the trenches and our Oline has been rather poor lately even considering their rankings are bolstered by so much help with TE's etc. Imagine a KC offense where their TE is really a 6th lineman and not going out as a dynamic pass catcher that he is.
and I agree with the scrum. The first ones, they legitimately got, they just moved the pile. The last one. He was stopped for a full second, and was short. Only moved past once everyone got behind him and pushed again. I'm fine with the play when it's quick and they win the LOS, but when you don't, it hink it's just cheap to let it continue
I would say that the KC offensive line showed how important it is to have "quality" players there. If we end up with several 1st round picks; I would like to get some top notched O linemen in this next draft. I imagine that KC has a great O line coach also. That game was won in the trenches. The Eagles could not run like they wanted (except that ridiculous scrum QB sneak which should be outlawed imo), and the KC O line did a great job of protecting Mahomes. Much better than the Eagles' O line did. Admittedly the Eagles were afraid to blitz. Still...

I fully expect with Bakh nearing the end, Yosh not a guarantee beyond this year as he most likely will be 2nd round tendered that Gute will look for not just one but two offensive line prospects before the end of the 5th round.

While our OL for sure hasn't been a strength...the biggest issue has been seemingly a few of our young prospects not progressing like many figured they would...Runyan isn't terrible but man after that first year starting I think many thought perhaps a 10 year starter....he still could be that but we have a mixed bag now of seasons from him...Newman very similar but worse than Runyan...however imagine how "strong" an OL should be if both of those guys were forced to be reserves.
 

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My fear? Gute drafts Robinson at RB in the first. Slightly lesser fear? Packers draft Mayer in the first and lock-in a TE who will be good but never great.

My hope? A trade down to later in the first and drafting one of Hyatt (WR), Smith-Njigba (WR), Musgrave (TE), or Torrence (OG)
 

Dantés

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If they really do end up moving on from Rodgers, I think the draft approach needs to change. When they were trying to get over the hump with Rodgers and win a Super Bowl, it made more sense to draft for need and try to find missing pieces (e.g. Quay Walker). But if they're starting over with Love, they should lean more in the direction of premium positions: tackles, edges, corners, receivers. Draft players that can become core pieces that are really hard/expensive to find elsewhere.

They should wait on tight end and on safety despite those being bigger needs. Here's every TE drafted in the 1st since 2000:

-Kyle Pitts, Falcons, #4, 2021
-T.J. Hockenson, Lions, #8, 2019
-Noah Fant, Broncos, #20, 2019
-Hayden Hurst, Ravens, #25, 2018
-O.J. Howard, Buccaneers, #19, 2017
-Evan Engram, Giants, #23, 2017
-David Njoku, Browns, #29, 2017
-Eric Ebron, Lions, #10, 2014
-Tyler Eifert, Bengals, #21, 2013
-Jermaine Gresham, Bengals, #21, 2010
-Brandon Pettigrew, Lions, #20, 2009
-Dustin Keller, Jets, #30, 2008
-Greg Olsen, Bears, #31, 2007
-Vernon Davis, 49ers, #6, 2006
-Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars, #28, 2006
-Heath Miller, Steelers, #30, 2005
-Kellen Winslow Jr, Browns, #6, 2004
-Ben Watson, Patriots, #32, 2004
-Dallas Clark, Colts, #24, 2003
-Jeremy Shockey, Giants, #14, 2002
-Daniel Graham, Patriots, #21, 2002
-Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks, #28, 2002
-Todd Heap, Ravens, #31, 2001
-Bubba Franks, Packers, #14, 2000
-Anthony Becht, Jets, #27, 2000

That's 25 players over the last 23 drafts. How many of those teams ended up happy with those picks and would do it again? Five?

And since 2006, the hit rate is effectively zero.
 

tynimiller

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If they really do end up moving on from Rodgers, I think the draft approach needs to change. When they were trying to get over the hump with Rodgers and win a Super Bowl, it made more sense to draft for need and try to find missing pieces (e.g. Quay Walker). But if they're starting over with Love, they should lean more in the direction of premium positions: tackles, edges, corners, receivers. Draft players that can become core pieces that are really hard/expensive to find elsewhere.

They should wait on tight end and on safety despite those being bigger needs. Here's every TE drafted in the 1st since 2000:

-Kyle Pitts, Falcons, #4, 2021
-T.J. Hockenson, Lions, #8, 2019
-Noah Fant, Broncos, #20, 2019
-Hayden Hurst, Ravens, #25, 2018
-O.J. Howard, Buccaneers, #19, 2017
-Evan Engram, Giants, #23, 2017
-David Njoku, Browns, #29, 2017
-Eric Ebron, Lions, #10, 2014
-Tyler Eifert, Bengals, #21, 2013
-Jermaine Gresham, Bengals, #21, 2010
-Brandon Pettigrew, Lions, #20, 2009
-Dustin Keller, Jets, #30, 2008
-Greg Olsen, Bears, #31, 2007
-Vernon Davis, 49ers, #6, 2006
-Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars, #28, 2006
-Heath Miller, Steelers, #30, 2005
-Kellen Winslow Jr, Browns, #6, 2004
-Ben Watson, Patriots, #32, 2004
-Dallas Clark, Colts, #24, 2003
-Jeremy Shockey, Giants, #14, 2002
-Daniel Graham, Patriots, #21, 2002
-Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks, #28, 2002
-Todd Heap, Ravens, #31, 2001
-Bubba Franks, Packers, #14, 2000
-Anthony Becht, Jets, #27, 2000

That's 25 players over the last 23 drafts. How many of those teams ended up happy with those picks and would do it again? Five?

And since 2006, the hit rate is effectively zero.

My last mock I posted I did just this ignoring need for prospect arguably with three of the first four picks.

Some non first round safeties I’m really like are Sydney Brown, transitioning Julius Brents there, Jay Ward, Ronnie Hickman and JL Skinner
 

Dantés

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Safeties:

-Kyle Hamilton, Ravens
-Dax Hill, Bengals
-Lewis Cine, Vikings
-Darnell Savage, Packers
-John Abraham, Raiders
-Minkah Fitzpatrick, Dolphins
-Derwin James, Chargers
-Terrell Edmunds, Steelers
-Jamal Adams, Jets
-Malik ******, Colts
-Jabrill Peppers, Browns
-Karl Joseph, Raiders
-Keanu Neal, Falcons
-Calvin Pryor, Jets
-Haha Clinton-Dix, Packers
-Deone Bucannon, Cardinals
-Jimmie Ward, 49ers
-Kenny Vaccaro, Saints
-Eric Reid, 49ers
-Matt Elam, Ravens
-Mark Barron, Bucs
-Harrison Smith, Vikings
-Eric Berry, Chiefs
-Earl Thomas, Seahawks
-Devin McCourty, Patriots
-Malcolm Jenkins, Saints

Excluding the most recent draft class because they were rookies, that's 24 picks going back to 2007. I would say 8 were good picks-- 33% hit rate. However, half of those 8 are from a long time ago. In more recent history, the hit rate has been closer to 15%.
 

Dantés

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So I guess what I'm saying is that at pick #15, these are the guys that I'm looking at right now-- though others will inevitably pop up as we are early in the process:

Peter Skoronski, OL, NW
Broderick Jones, OT, UGA
Paris Johnson, OT, OSU
Tyree Wilson, ED, TTU
Myles Murphy, ED, CLEM
Keion White, ED, GTU
Drew Sanders, ED, ARK
Lukas Van Ness, ED, IA
Derick Hall, ED, AUB
Tuli Tuipulotu, ED/DL, USC
Jalin Hyatt, WR, TEN
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
 

tynimiller

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Safeties:

-Kyle Hamilton, Ravens
-Dax Hill, Bengals
-Lewis Cine, Vikings
-Darnell Savage, Packers
-John Abraham, Raiders
-Minkah Fitzpatrick, Dolphins
-Derwin James, Chargers
-Terrell Edmunds, Steelers
-Jamal Adams, Jets
-Malik ******, Colts
-Jabrill Peppers, Browns
-Karl Joseph, Raiders
-Keanu Neal, Falcons
-Calvin Pryor, Jets
-Haha Clinton-Dix, Packers
-Deone Bucannon, Cardinals
-Jimmie Ward, 49ers
-Kenny Vaccaro, Saints
-Eric Reid, 49ers
-Matt Elam, Ravens
-Mark Barron, Bucs
-Harrison Smith, Vikings
-Eric Berry, Chiefs
-Earl Thomas, Seahawks
-Devin McCourty, Patriots
-Malcolm Jenkins, Saints

Excluding the most recent draft class because they were rookies, that's 24 picks going back to 2007. I would say 8 were good picks-- 33% hit rate. However, half of those 8 are from a long time ago. In more recent history, the hit rate has been closer to 15%.

All the more reason even IMO to go high level cornerback and let Rasul possibly go back to safety
So I guess what I'm saying is that at pick #15, these are the guys that I'm looking at right now-- though others will inevitably pop up as we are early in the process:

Peter Skoronski, OL, NW
Broderick Jones, OT, UGA
Paris Johnson, OT, OSU
Tyree Wilson, ED, TTU
Myles Murphy, ED, CLEM
Keion White, ED, GTU
Drew Sanders, ED, ARK
Lukas Van Ness, ED, IA
Derick Hall, ED, AUB
Tuli Tuipulotu, ED/DL, USC
Jalin Hyatt, WR, TEN
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
essentially my list but I also am willing to go CB if one of the top guys is there and we feel he is a CB1 in his future
 

Dantés

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All the more reason even IMO to go high level cornerback and let Rasul possibly go back to safety

essentially my list but I also am willing to go CB if one of the top guys is there and we feel he is a CB1 in his future

Sure whatever. Though I wouldn’t be wild about it what with Jaire and Stokes already on board.
 

tynimiller

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Sure whatever. Though I wouldn’t be wild about it what with Jaire and Stokes already on board.

Oh I get it for sure, but if you see say your personal CB1 there at 15 and he happened to not be the first or second one taken already I would understand it.
 

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Jalin Hyatt might be kind of limited, but he is crazy fast and has terrific ball skills, both in terms of finding the ball and securing deep passes. You can do a lot with that.
 

tynimiller

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Jalin Hyatt might be kind of limited, but he is crazy fast and has terrific ball skills, both in terms of finding the ball and securing deep passes. You can do a lot with that.

Absolutely. Problem I have is I think 15 is too early but I don’t think he should make it to our second rounder….
 
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If they really do end up moving on from Rodgers, I think the draft approach needs to change. When they were trying to get over the hump with Rodgers and win a Super Bowl, it made more sense to draft for need and try to find missing pieces (e.g. Quay Walker).

In my opinion the Packers under Gutekunst selected too many players that were projected to develop into impact players down the road instead of ones that would have had an immediate impact over the past few years.

That's not the best approach consideringh they should have gone all-in as long as Rodgers is around.
 

tynimiller

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In my opinion the Packers under Gutekunst selected too many players that were projected to develop into impact players down the road instead of ones that would have had an immediate impact over the past few years.

That's not the best approach consideringh they should have gone all-in as long as Rodgers is around.

Besides Love what high picks did you know without a doubt at time of drafting they were not going to be impactful players - I want your crystal ball and I bet Gute does to because the draft is a crapshoot with no guaranteed impactful players...just more likely or less likely and that is only if your scouting process is right.
 

Dantés

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If they really do end up moving on from Rodgers, I think the draft approach needs to change. When they were trying to get over the hump with Rodgers and win a Super Bowl, it made more sense to draft for need and try to find missing pieces (e.g. Quay Walker). But if they're starting over with Love, they should lean more in the direction of premium positions: tackles, edges, corners, receivers. Draft players that can become core pieces that are really hard/expensive to find elsewhere.

They should wait on tight end and on safety despite those being bigger needs. Here's every TE drafted in the 1st since 2000:

-Kyle Pitts, Falcons, #4, 2021
-T.J. Hockenson, Lions, #8, 2019
-Noah Fant, Broncos, #20, 2019
-Hayden Hurst, Ravens, #25, 2018
-O.J. Howard, Buccaneers, #19, 2017
-Evan Engram, Giants, #23, 2017
-David Njoku, Browns, #29, 2017
-Eric Ebron, Lions, #10, 2014
-Tyler Eifert, Bengals, #21, 2013
-Jermaine Gresham, Bengals, #21, 2010
-Brandon Pettigrew, Lions, #20, 2009
-Dustin Keller, Jets, #30, 2008
-Greg Olsen, Bears, #31, 2007
-Vernon Davis, 49ers, #6, 2006
-Marcedes Lewis, Jaguars, #28, 2006
-Heath Miller, Steelers, #30, 2005
-Kellen Winslow Jr, Browns, #6, 2004
-Ben Watson, Patriots, #32, 2004
-Dallas Clark, Colts, #24, 2003
-Jeremy Shockey, Giants, #14, 2002
-Daniel Graham, Patriots, #21, 2002
-Jerramy Stevens, Seahawks, #28, 2002
-Todd Heap, Ravens, #31, 2001
-Bubba Franks, Packers, #14, 2000
-Anthony Becht, Jets, #27, 2000

That's 25 players over the last 23 drafts. How many of those teams ended up happy with those picks and would do it again? Five?

And since 2006, the hit rate is effectively zero.

Given the above, I obviously don't favor taking a TE at #15. However, if they do, I hope that it's Michael Mayer.

The biggest reason why it typically takes a long time for tight ends to get on the field and produce is that they have to learn how to block NFL players while also working on their craft as receivers. For Mayer, the blocking won't be a big problem. He has the strength, technique, size, and frame of an NFL blocker already. So while the upside would be limited (i.e. you're likely not getting a 1000+ yd receiving option), the impact would be well-rounded, and probably pretty immediate. He's also versatile. For Notre Dame, he played a lot in-line but he also detached, and he's good in both roles.

Compare that to the other options.

Kincaid is considered a better receiving option, but he can't block. He's essentially a big slot WR. He's also going to be a 24 year old rookie. I think his limitations would do one of two things: put constraints on the offense because he's pigeon-holed, positionally OR keep him off the field because he isn't capable of playing the roles you have for the TE on many of your plays. If you wouldn't draft a slot-only WR at #15, Kincaid shouldn't be in consideration either.

Darnell Washington (a player I would love later in the draft), is essentially the inverse. He can play in-line but not really anywhere else. And despite his gargantuan build, I think Mayer is actually a better overall blocker.

Musgrave is considered to have higher upside than Mayer, and maybe he does (I'm still very new to this class), but he's going to have a much bigger adjustment as a blocker than Mayer and he also just hasn't played much football.
 
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Besides Love what high picks did you know without a doubt at time of drafting they were not going to be impactful players - I want your crystal ball and I bet Gute does to because the draft is a crapshoot with no guaranteed impactful players...just more likely or less likely and that is only if your scouting process is right.

Gary and Dillon fit that mould as well. While I wasn't one to share that opinion on Wyatt it seems there were other you did.
 

Magooch

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Besides Love what high picks did you know without a doubt at time of drafting they were not going to be impactful players - I want your crystal ball and I bet Gute does to because the draft is a crapshoot with no guaranteed impactful players...just more likely or less likely and that is only if your scouting process is right.

Gary and Dillon fit that mould as well. While I wasn't one to share that opinion on Wyatt it seems there were other you did.

I'm sure I'm repeating myself but while it's true there's no "sure things" and no guarantee that player X will be a day one impact player and player Y won't...I don't think it's a stretch to say that Gute will tend to err on the side of "value" or "ceiling" even if it takes a while to get there rather than a player who might be more day one ready who represents less value and/or lower ceiling.

Totally a hypothetical but let's pretend you can grade players on a scale of 1-10 where 10 is an all-pro star contributor and 1 is lucky to be a practice squad guy.

Now say you've got your eye on two guys in the draft. Player A is currently a 5/10, but you believe he has the potential to be a 9/10 if he's developed right. Player B is currently a 7/10, but his ceiling probably peaks at being an 8/10. Obviously it's just conjecture but IMO Gute would pick "A" over "B" every single time. Naturally "A" is going to have less of an immediate impact but could potentially be developed into a better player and would likely represent the better long-term value when you consider the end product and draft capital invested. "B" will probably be able to contribute more from day one but is already closer to their ceiling and won't improve a ton from where you're getting them.

Neither approach is necessarily right or wrong but I do think there's a case to be made when your team is more or less built around a QB like Rodgers who is already getting up there in age it perhaps would have made more sense to shade a little more towards drafting more "Player B" guys rather than the long-term "value" projects. When your star QB is 37, 38, 39, your "window" is already probably fairly small and closing fast and you should probably be in "win now" mode if you wanna maximize that window. And a lot of times that means bringing in players who can provide an immediate short-term impact, even if they don't represent the best value for money/draft investment.

Like I said, there are no guarantees, but at the same time I think we all know there are some players who are probably going to be more of a "project" than others. @tynimiller , you are a guy who does a lot of draft analysis/projection, I'm sure you know as well as anyone that there are always going to be guys that you like but can acknowledge they might take some more time and/or coaching/development/etc to "get there" than others.

I mean probably a glaring example is of course Love himself. Now if he ends up being our starting QB and turns into a great player, obviously that's a pretty decent "value" investment when you consider it "only" cost a low 1st (and etc) and minimal salary for years of development. But at the same time Love provided no (measurable) impact in the first few years and it's hard to really argue that we couldn't have gotten more immediate impact out of another player. For instance Tee Higgins was available and we needed help bad at WR; he almost certainly would've had a bigger impact than Love for us for the past couple years. But a WR is naturally a lower value commodity than a (potential) franchise QB, should it shake out as such. But on the flip side, if we draft Higgins instead of Love and that's enough to push us to a Super Bowl BUT it means we are in need of a QB a couple years down the line...is it worth it? Most would probably say yes but I guess it's up for debate. And of course that's far from guaranteed either, but hopefully you get the point - it's all that to say that in general I think we could probably all mostly agree that Gute does tend to err on the side of "projects"
 

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