tynimiller
Cheesehead
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- May 2, 2012
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I hate doing this but bored last night so I deep dived into a hypothetical world since a buddy texted me and asked "right now, the draft starts what would a perfect draft look like through say Day 2?"
I'll admit it is massive impossibility to predict atm, and truthfully I've ignored some of the discussions with many others as it is still not even Thanksgiving....college prospects still have swaths of time to confirm they are who we thought or illustrate massive steps taken forward or backwards and likewise boards move substantially.
But I'll outline an overall thought...for this exercise I told him I'm assuming Love is our guy for at least 2024 season...doesn't mean he IS the guy, just we are going to give him another year. So that removes a QB early...and with the likelihood decent we have a Top 10 pick I firmly believe that the only two players I personally think I'll have a Top10 grade on that is worth using a pick on there given our team structure is Brock Bowers and Marvin Harrison Jr....BUT I'll go on record saying I don't like the idea of having a Harrison Jr on the team IF he is like his dad (one of the dirtiest players and to be honest, dude was just plain nasty human being when playing from folks I've talked to.). BUT no denying either of those guys instantly make this offensive structure that much more explosive and dynamic that can only help Love.
Also I think there is a decent chance Bears go QB and their top OT or top Edge if they stay....so likelihood is in the next 8 picks there will be two QBs go IMO, another OT at least, another Edge and likely chance that Egbuka is desired in there too...
That all to say, I have never been more entrenched in the camp of trading back. Why? Simple, while we are underperforming - we are MASSIVELY young and truthfully the only glaring massive gaping holes is OL depth/starting and Safety. Outside of that you either have depth or surplus of young unproven/high ceiling types. You don't pick a Safety that early unless you see the next coming of Nick Collins or Woodson sitting there and personally I expect the top one or two OTs to be gone, and if not that could be almost as valuable as a teams future QB still on the board when our clocktime comes.
Trading back ALSO should add significant 2024 draft equity - I'd guess at minimum a 2nd rounder unless it is just a small 2 pick spot trade up. This is pivotal for the movement we may need to be able to do in the future 2024 draft should Jordan Love NOT be the plan in 2025. That draft equity will be crucial either way - either makes it more likely for you to jump if needed and get "your guy" or continue to build around a QB that you just signed to an extension and QB extensions are not cheap.
So let's live in a world where we find a trade back...somewhere in that 20-30 range, pick up likely for it a swap of 1sts of course, a second this year and a second or first next year as the brunt of the trade:
First Round - we stay and pick Kamren Kinchens Safety out of Miami - this young cat is the age GB likes in 1st round prospects, I expect good RAS numbers and he's been productive since entering college for Miami as a Freshman. He plays the run well, tackles well, has zero fear in using his body to make plays - yet has the range and elite ball skills to make QBs hesitate going his way. Only thing he needs to really improve on is eye discipline at times...the other negative I see is his length isn't something God blessed him with - but he overcomes that most of the time.
Second Round...with the trade we have three...let's say we come away with a starting level Tackle, an iOL of some kind and a higher end edge prospect with Smith likely gone or going to be in his last season....could look something like:
Jordan Morgan OT Arizona - He's a top5 OT for me without blinking. Has played LT, but could even easily slide to RT or even a guard position if we want.
Laiatu Latu UCLA Edge - If he makes it out of the end of Day 1 a chance at a pressure cooker like him in Day2 could be special but also realistic enough to include him here.
Sedrick Van Pran OC from Georgia or Christian Haynes OG from UConn or could double dip OT but go RT prospect in a Tyler Guyton out of Oklahoma
Third Round...I would lean towards a high level RB if one is left like Estime, Allen, Corum or Steele maybe.
Round it out on start of Day3 with a CB or DL perhaps or even a potential Clifford replacement if say a Hartman type prospect is still there at QB.
Right now, just a rounded projection more about positions, approach and buckets rather than a true mock
I'll admit it is massive impossibility to predict atm, and truthfully I've ignored some of the discussions with many others as it is still not even Thanksgiving....college prospects still have swaths of time to confirm they are who we thought or illustrate massive steps taken forward or backwards and likewise boards move substantially.
But I'll outline an overall thought...for this exercise I told him I'm assuming Love is our guy for at least 2024 season...doesn't mean he IS the guy, just we are going to give him another year. So that removes a QB early...and with the likelihood decent we have a Top 10 pick I firmly believe that the only two players I personally think I'll have a Top10 grade on that is worth using a pick on there given our team structure is Brock Bowers and Marvin Harrison Jr....BUT I'll go on record saying I don't like the idea of having a Harrison Jr on the team IF he is like his dad (one of the dirtiest players and to be honest, dude was just plain nasty human being when playing from folks I've talked to.). BUT no denying either of those guys instantly make this offensive structure that much more explosive and dynamic that can only help Love.
Also I think there is a decent chance Bears go QB and their top OT or top Edge if they stay....so likelihood is in the next 8 picks there will be two QBs go IMO, another OT at least, another Edge and likely chance that Egbuka is desired in there too...
That all to say, I have never been more entrenched in the camp of trading back. Why? Simple, while we are underperforming - we are MASSIVELY young and truthfully the only glaring massive gaping holes is OL depth/starting and Safety. Outside of that you either have depth or surplus of young unproven/high ceiling types. You don't pick a Safety that early unless you see the next coming of Nick Collins or Woodson sitting there and personally I expect the top one or two OTs to be gone, and if not that could be almost as valuable as a teams future QB still on the board when our clocktime comes.
Trading back ALSO should add significant 2024 draft equity - I'd guess at minimum a 2nd rounder unless it is just a small 2 pick spot trade up. This is pivotal for the movement we may need to be able to do in the future 2024 draft should Jordan Love NOT be the plan in 2025. That draft equity will be crucial either way - either makes it more likely for you to jump if needed and get "your guy" or continue to build around a QB that you just signed to an extension and QB extensions are not cheap.
So let's live in a world where we find a trade back...somewhere in that 20-30 range, pick up likely for it a swap of 1sts of course, a second this year and a second or first next year as the brunt of the trade:
First Round - we stay and pick Kamren Kinchens Safety out of Miami - this young cat is the age GB likes in 1st round prospects, I expect good RAS numbers and he's been productive since entering college for Miami as a Freshman. He plays the run well, tackles well, has zero fear in using his body to make plays - yet has the range and elite ball skills to make QBs hesitate going his way. Only thing he needs to really improve on is eye discipline at times...the other negative I see is his length isn't something God blessed him with - but he overcomes that most of the time.
Second Round...with the trade we have three...let's say we come away with a starting level Tackle, an iOL of some kind and a higher end edge prospect with Smith likely gone or going to be in his last season....could look something like:
Jordan Morgan OT Arizona - He's a top5 OT for me without blinking. Has played LT, but could even easily slide to RT or even a guard position if we want.
Laiatu Latu UCLA Edge - If he makes it out of the end of Day 1 a chance at a pressure cooker like him in Day2 could be special but also realistic enough to include him here.
Sedrick Van Pran OC from Georgia or Christian Haynes OG from UConn or could double dip OT but go RT prospect in a Tyler Guyton out of Oklahoma
Third Round...I would lean towards a high level RB if one is left like Estime, Allen, Corum or Steele maybe.
Round it out on start of Day3 with a CB or DL perhaps or even a potential Clifford replacement if say a Hartman type prospect is still there at QB.
Right now, just a rounded projection more about positions, approach and buckets rather than a true mock
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